Facebook's Path To $1.2Tn: An Asymmetric Risk-Reward Opportunity

Summary

Facebook's superior social media product offerings used by half the world's population — Facebook, Whatsapp, Instagram and Messenger — are unparalleled and provide a competitive moat. Facebook has elite fundamentals, high growth and a stellar balance sheet with experienced and heavily invested management at the helm. Also, the company's foray into India through its $5.7Bn investment in Jio Platforms in April 2020 is a game-changer and key to propelling faster topline growth internationally. Q2'2020 earnings showed the resiliency of an increasingly diversified ad business, which was up 10% YoY despite the COVID induced drastic cut in ad spend by companies. The street has been trading Facebook ahead of elections and has myopically underestimated the impact of the company's investment into India. Facebook (FB) is currently trading at a PE NTM of 27.6x, slightly above its 5 year historical average. Relative to its industry, Facebook trades at a PEG NTM of 0.8x. This valuation is perplexing for a company that has 3.1Bn monthly active users (or MAU) across all of its platforms and has generated a 10% growth in ad revenue YoY in Q2'2020 despite overall ad spending decreasing 30% due to COVID-19.

Facebook offers an attractive asymmetric risk-reward opportunity of 1:8; my equally-weighted DCF and CompCo model valuation implies that FB's fair value is $425 representing a 64% gap to target.

Investment Thesis 1) Facebook's superior social media offerings provide a strong competitive moat and the opportunity to cross-sell and integrate at lower costs.

Facebook has 4 primary social media platforms: Messenger, WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook. 99% of FB's revenue is derived from advertising across these 4 platforms, of which Facebook accounts for the lion's share of revenue (Whatsapp and Messenger have slowly begun to monetize segments of their users).

Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp and Messenger Source: New York Times

Facebook Source: Facebook's Q2'2020 Earnings Presentation

FB does not report MAUs, DAUs or Average Revenue per User (or ARPU) for its Whatsapp, Instagram and Messenger platforms. However, we can derive a collective DAU count for these platforms which FB classifies as its "Family" products. The DAU of WhatsApp, Instagram and Messenger is simply Facebook's DAU minus the Family DAU (which includes Facebook's DAU thus the subtraction). In Q2'2020, the Family DAU without Facebook, was 685Mn representing a 24% increase on a YoY basis. The Family products also highlight the increased user engagement with a much higher DAU/MAU ratio of 79%.

Facebook Family Products Source: Facebook Q2'2020 Earnings Presentation

For years FB has been hinting towards integrating its 4 primary platforms into a unified offering. It started with Mark Zuckerberg's 2019 letter: "A Privacy-Focused Vision for Social Networking". He stated the need for cross-integration:

Interoperability. People should be able to use any of our apps to reach their friends, and they should be able to communicate across networks easily and securely.

CEO of FB, Mark Zuckerberg.

Now that some of the political pressure has started to wane, there is a renewed effort at FB to beta test key cross-integration between its products.

One such example is allowing Messenger and Instagram users to message from one app to another or see videos with friends during a video call (known as the "Watch Together" feature). Users will also be able to search for profiles across both platforms simultaneously.

Messenger and Instagram integration

Source: The Verge

Additionally, cross-integration should assuage the privacy concerns often raised with Facebook since all of its platforms are end-to-end encrypted. People who use Messenger to send and receive SMS cannot have their texts end-to-end encrypted because the SMS protocol is not encrypted. However, with the ability to message across FB's services, as planned by Zuckerberg, users will be able to send an encrypted message to someone’s phone number in WhatsApp from Messenger.

In terms of cross-selling, over 180Mn businesses operate across the FB family with over 9Mn advertisers. Note: the top 100 advertisers account for 16% of revenue, down from 20% a few years ago. This increased revenue diversification will be further boosted by the introduction and rapid adoption of Facebook Shops (May 2020) and WhatsApp business (January 2018). In the most recent Earnings call, Facebook reported 50Mn users for its WhatsApp business segment (for some context, the last reported number was 5Mn).

One way in which integration could help with user experience and convenience is on Facebook Marketplace you could just have someone WhatsApp message your messenger account without have to disclose your number. This could also help advertisers easily create and distribute ads seamlessly across platforms or have users post one story which reaches all their friends faster and more conveniently.

It is abundantly evident that Facebook's ability, even without integration, to engage and monetize users is not going away. This has led to revenue stickiness while, through Facebook Shops and WhatsApp business, simultaneously decreased revenue concentration risk. The basis for growth from these products is consistent, not to mention further drivers of topline growth: the Oculus or Portal products which grew 40% YoY to $366Mn, or Mixer (Facebook's gaming platform acquired from Microsoft (MSFT)) which has the 3rd largest market share after Amazon's (AMZN) Twitch and Google's (GOOGL) YouTube.

Note on COVID-19: Overall ad spending decreased 30% in Q2. Facebook's market share of U.S. ad totals increased from 10.7% to 12.7% while Instagram captured a 7.5% market share. This drove Facebook's advertising revenue up 10% YoY to $18.3Bn.This not only shows the dominance of Facebook as a preferred advertising medium, but also highlights the resiliency and adaptability of its products.

Ad spend in Q2 2) Facebook has elite fundamentals, high growth and a stellar balance sheet with experienced and heavily invested management at the helm.

FB's superior products have insulated its financial statements from exogenous shocks like the FTC fine or COVID-19 ad depression.

Over the past 5 years, Facebook has grown its revenue at an astonishing CAGR of 41.5%. This has led to a 2019 net income margin of 26.1% which is about 510bps more than that of its next closest competitor (by business model) GOOGL. Facebook has a robust gross margin of 82% (note: FB accounts for Depreciation in its COGs) while churning out a tremendous unlevered free cash flow equivalent to ~22.5% of revenue.

Facebook Growth SummaryMark Zuckerberg's leadership of Facebook, from its early days has shown the ability of FB to navigate tough times while still delivering on growth and earnings. It is also clear, that the strategy of Facebook is geared towards the future with focus on AR and VR and international expansion. Mr. Zuckerberg currently owns 15% of FB, and is personally heavily invested in the future of the company.

The company's growth prospects are insulated by a mountain of cash and short term investments, totaling ~$55Bn in 2019. Though Facebook has never paid dividends and does not intend to as per its 10k, it does have a share repurchase program that has $14.9Bn left in authorization.

Source: Created by Author using data from Capital IQ

3) Facebook's foray into India through its $5.7Bn investment in Reliance Jio Platforms is a game-changer and has been underpriced by the street.

Having used Facebook and Reliance products, and seen the impact Reliance (listed on NSE and BSE) has made in India over the past decade, I have an informational edge over the street in understanding the significance of FB's $5.7Bn investment.

What is Reliance Jio?

Reliance Jio is the telecommunications arm of the Indian petrochemical giant Reliance Industries. It operates a national LTE network and now offers optic-fiber based internet connection enabling speeds up to 1Gbps. Launched in 2016, Jio, through aggressive price cuts, became the leading telecom operator in India by 2019.

Jio now has a 32% market share in a telecom market of 1.15Bn Indians. That is, more customers than the entire population of the U.S.

Reliance Jio Facebook's $5.7Bn investment in Jio was brilliant. WhatsApp is used almost ubiquitously in India and virtually has no competition. In two years, Indian WhatsApp users doubled to 400Mn MAUs by 2019. India is now the largest market for WhatsApp. Jio Phones, over 100Mn shipped and accounting for 25% of the customer base for Jio, operate on KaiOS. WhatsApp expanded its presence so that KaiOS phones can download the app causing Indians to nearly break the internet. The Jio investment was simply an extension of the sturdy pre-existing relationship between Jio and Facebook.

WhatsApp and JioMart (Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail's join venture) want to consolidate a very fragmented retail market representing access to the e-commerce market of $84Bn (by 2021) growing in double-digits YoY.

Through the new partnership, WhatsApp will handle the payment system and JioMart will handle order fulfillment and dispatch. An initial test of WhatsApp pay for 1Mn users was already ongoing. Now, with the JioMart integration, the service is already available to tens of millions of users across the greater Mumbai area with more than 1,200 stores participating.

JioMart and WhatsApp Source: Tech Crunch

Here are 3 key reasons how the Jio investment can propel growth for FB:

"Phygital Strategy": Ambani's Jio is executing on the promise of a digital India on which investors and citizens have waited on for years. Under this partnership, Jio would offer consumers the ability to access over 30 million kiranas (or small merchants) and 60 million SMEs which can deliver products and services, after transactions on JioMart using WhatsApp. Made simpler, active Whatsapp business accounts will sky-rocket. Direct access to data: Jio with its 390Mn subscribers (growing at a 35% 3 year CAGR) is sitting on a goldmine of data. There is a lot of potential synergy for Facebook and Jio, through WhatsApp, being able to direct highly targeted advertising on JioMart and collecting consumption pattern data on its Indian customers. Perhaps Facebook can send WhatsApp users suggestions on what they may want to purchase based on historical purchase patterns on JioMart thus driving revenue growth. Jio offers political and regulatory safety: Reliance Industries (up 86% in the last months) accounts for 9% of Indian exports and 4.6% of total tax revenues. Reliance has historically been able to navigate political and regulatory concerns efficiently. WhatsApp pays initial regulatory hurdles will not be an issue with Asia's richest man, Mr. Ambani's clout backing FB. Facebook's investment genius was soon recognized by others across the globe. In the 84 days after FB's investment, Jio raised ~$20.7Bn at a ~$70Bn valuation from 14 investments with companies like Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Google (GOOGL) and KKR (KKR) taking part. If Jio's fund-raiser alone was a country it would be the 110th largest country in the world ranking above Afghanistan and Laos (based on nominal GDP 2019).

Jio fundraising Source: Moneycontrol

Valuation Facebook's social media dominance has been clouded by regulatory and political fears in the U.S. While its foray into India has been myopically underpriced by the street. With positive effects on revenue from COVID-19 along with a stellar balance sheet and management, Facebook's NTM PE of 26.9x (slightly above its 5 year average) is confounding.

Football Field Valuation FB

Source: Created using the Author's DCF and CompCo model

Facebook's implied fair value by an equally-weighted DCF and CompCo model is $425, representing a 64% upside from the CMP of $260. With the range of valuations possible with my bear case indicating $234 to the bull case indicating $468, FB's investment risk-return is asymmetric.

The upside is 8x higher than the downside based on the CMP of $260.

Key Assumptions Assumptions used to build DCF model and financial projections across multiple scenarios:

assumptions Source: Created by the Author

Assumptions used for the CompCo and weighted average cost of capital:

wacc and compco Catalysts and Risks to the Investment Thesis Catalysts:

Better than expected Q4'2020 results (which account for about 30% of total revenue) due to faster than estimated recovery in ad spending. Utilization of share repurchase program, returning over $14.9Bn back to shareholders. Increased traction in WhatsApp and JioMart integration in India driving WhatsApp business account growth. Increased integration between FB's family of products which will lead to higher DAU/MAU ratios, revenue stickiness and security. Risks:

U.S. political pressure with fast-approaching elections (though historically ad revenue spikes for FB closer to elections) and previous reputational damage regarding fake accounts and interference. Regulatory action such as anti-trust which may break Facebook up into its individual businesses. Slower than expected economic recovery will hurt SME — the backbone of FB's revenue and growth. Increased competition from Microsoft through LinkedIn (just introduced LinkedIn stories) or Oracle & WalMart (acquisition of Tik Tok which FB identifies as a competitor in its 10K). Summary In conclusion, Facebook is an undoubted leader in social media platform offerings with over 3.1Bn users monthly. FB's stellar balance sheet and management, along with forays into India, has not only ensured that it has come out of the COVID-19 crisis relatively unscathed but also positioned it optimally for future growth.

share price performancw With the recent tech sell-off, FB's share price has fallen 10.7% offering a good chance for prospective investors. Facebook currently trades at $260 and a PE NTM of 27.6x, slightly above its 5 year historical average. Relative to its industry, Facebook trades at a PEG NTM of 0.8x.

This does not make sense. Facebook will be a $1Tn+ company soon enough.

My DCF and CompCo model, equally weighted, imply a 64% upside to a fair value of $425.

facebook

Disclosure: I am/we are long FB. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Infoman

Salesforce在亞洲區聲名鵲起，是近年才積極開拓亞洲生意之故。Salesforce相比對手SAP和Oracle在功能上更有優勢，亞洲商業發展使Salesforce作為客戶關係管理（CRM, Customer Relationship Management）最大經營者首先受惠，加上目前巿場佔有率依然有限，作為CRM平台的龍頭，筆者抱「唔買都睇吓」的心態，研究一下Salesforce。

俄裔美國人Marc Benioff是Salesforce創辦人，曾任職Oracle並一直得到賞識，進入公司時即獲得最佳新人獎，又改寫Oracle最年輕副總裁紀錄（26歲），年僅37歲已晉升為高級副總裁，風頭一時無兩。但淺水豈可困蛟龍？1999年，Benioff聯同Parker Harris、Dave Moellenhoff、Frank Dominguez等創立Salesforce。Benioff早已認定共享經濟的機遇，在雲端尚未興起時，於2000年致力激活salesforce.com網站作為客戶數據平台的威力。

Benioff把Salesforce定位為「軟件終結者」，既是因為他作為銷售行業的人明白標籤對相應巿場（addressable market）的重要性，明顯是扒這行飯的人，也因為他對潛藏安裝軟件將不合時宜的深刻信念：作為沒有軟件的主要提倡者，Salesforce內用上了No Software的圖案，連公司熱線都用上了1-800-NO-SOFTWARE（即1-800-667-6389，電話按鍵數字上對應的英文字母），本身甚至穿上No Software字樣的T-shirt。

前瞻軟件面臨末日

在20年前，當Microsoft Word、Adobe Photoshop軟件動輒索價百美元始能安裝的年代，Benioff已經超前預言軟件即將沒落，可知Benioff的驚人前瞻性（「軟件末日」言簡意賅，Salesforce股票代號英文簡寫不用，乾脆用上了CRM）。在Benioff積極耕耘下，先後發展出SaaS（Software As A Service，軟體即服務）和PaaS（Platform As A Service，平台即服務方案），成為Salesforce主力提供的服務。

試問一間巿值千億美元級數的公司專注於CRM方案，焉能不獨步於天下？根據Salesforce網站介紹，Salesforce是全球首屈一指的CRM平台，雲端型CRM應用程式適用於銷售、服務、行銷等眾多用途，毋須IT專家協助就能輕鬆設定和管理；只要登入，就能立即開始以嶄新方式聯繫客戶。

Salesforce明白客戶能夠提供龐大的內容貢獻，而且客戶反饋有效，其產品方案透過Trailhead，Salesforce客戶可以認識更多行家，最大化Salesforce的功效；造訪Salesforce Trailhead網站，使Salesforce用家學習平台的新知識，如AI為本的CRM智能助理「愛因斯坦」、社群溝通及提供新世代介面設計（User Interface, UI）、客戶體驗（User Experience, UX），可以促進營銷生產力的Lightning等內容。Salesforce App Exchange則幫助客戶在任何一個部門和行業都可因Salesforce而化繁為簡，5000個即裝即用方案、80000個同行點評和850萬個下載，使再複雜的流程也難不到有Salesforce強力支持的機構客戶。

目前，Salesforce在全球CRM應用上以18.4%巿場佔有率領導全行，遠超SAP、Oracle、Microsoft和Adobe的5.3%、5.2%、3.7%和3.6%，甚至多於尾隨對手巿佔率的總和，公司希望大好形勢能夠藉具有戰略意義的收購而得以強化。

藉併購完善服務

為了加強CRM方案的吸引力，Salesforce在2018年3月以65億美元收購軟體整合平台業者Mulesoft，2019年3月斥157億美元購入數據分析平台Tableau Software Inc.，2019年8月13.5億美元買下解決方案軟件公司ClickSoftware等，使服務範圍更為完備，名副其實成為了當代千億美元巿值級數的名片盒（Rolodex，記載客戶資料用的滾動式索引）。深度分析往往要用上不少篇幅，下周將談併購對Salesforce的好處和協同效應，以及該雲端公司的估值是否已達雲霄。

CFA、FCPA、財務總監

專頁：facebook.com/yiuwinghim

Infoman

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hong-kong-bno-visa-policy-statement/hong-kong-british-national-overseas-visa-policy-statement-plain-text-version

Infoman

幾個月前，獲一私人財經研究平台邀請，提供關於ESG的學術意見。ESG是指環境（Environmental）、社會（Social）和管治（Governance）。全球投資者及企業越來越重視ESG表現，尤其歐美等地。以2018年為例，全球便有超過25萬篇有關ESG的英語文章。外國投資界最常用的ESG數據，應該是基金分析工具供應商MCSI提供的ESG指數，這指數背後的資料，包括綠色建築、可再生能源等等投資活動。至於我有份提供學術意見的財經研究平台，主要涵蓋與ESG表現高度相關的香港上市公司，而這ESG表現是集中於對香港環境、社會、管治三方面的承擔。本土ESG表現好，良心企業是也。

Infoman

疫情之下，人人都盡量留在家中，令網購大行其道。「創業快綫」2020優勝初創之一Return Helper，看準網購愈幟熱、退貨率愈高的商機，創立一站式跨境電商退貨平台，成立至今不但是eBay官方推薦服務供應商之一，每月退貨處理量更達一萬件，每件盈利逾80港元。

斥50萬創業搞一站式平台

Return Helper聯合創辦人及行政總裁溫俊偉（Roy）在香港城市大學修讀商務資訊系統，2009年畢業後曾先後効力eBay、Continental Global Service等跨境網購物流公司。據他了解，近年跨境電商業務急速增長，同時退貨率亦高，「歐美市場較保障消費者，網購退貨率達二至三成，若然遇上節日減價，退貨率就更高。」

Roy解釋，香港及內地有不少廠商出口歐美國家，供貨予大型電商如Walmart及eBay等，「它們遇到退貨，通常依賴傳統物流（例如以DHL、FedEx等速遞回港），貨件退回來再處理，中小型廠商難有資源處理，亦有額外成本（單次速遞費可達100至200港元）。」他舉例說，退貨涉及物流、檢測、保養維修、廢物回收及循環再造等問題，「Return Helper希望提供一個端到端解決方案（end-to-end solution），一站式處理所有問題，還可整合數據，向電商建議最符合成本效益的方案。」

Roy遂與香港大學計算機工程畢業的中學同學黃俊鵬合資約50萬元，於2018年底創辦Return Helper，並順利成為香港科技園培育公司，獲得初創補助資金。他介紹該一站式退貨解決方案，可以讓電商按退貨物品的狀況，例如貨品並無損壞，可選擇在當地重新配送商品（re-distribute）；如屬次貨亦可在二手市場轉售、循環再造，或直接棄置，以省卻跨國運費及其他營運開支：「就如把整個退貨程序外判給我們般，我們亦相信退貨在源頭處理更cost effective（具成本效益）。」

每件退貨盈利約80元

Roy表示，當日透過過往工作的人脈，先跟海外物流公司及第三方倉庫提出合作，「美國是最大的電商退貨市場，所以我們選擇先與美國郵政洽談，因為外國人更能體驗退貨的重要性，所以洽談相當順利。」與此同時，他主力跟香港及內地的中小型電商介紹此跨境退貨方案，所以在2019年6月正式推出Return Helper時，已經與超過7家來自不同國家的物流公司，包括美國聯邦快遞、美國郵政、英國皇家郵政、澳洲郵政、德國DHL、法國郵政、西班牙郵政等合作，並在3個月間成為eBay官方推薦的服務供應商之一。

他透露，Return Helper推出時，合作的電商已有約500家，主要來自香港、內地及東南亞，每月處理量由最初約幾十件，至今已增至超過1萬件，每件退貨盈利逾10美元（約78港元）：「若然每月沒有這個處理量，大型物流公司未必願意合作，提供快遞折扣優惠。」目前，要求退貨的網購買家主要來自美國、英國等，逾半退貨涉及電子產品、手機及服飾等。

論及發展方向時，Roy提到，Return Helper最初主要客戶為中小型電商，現時則拓展至大企業市場。近期先後與手機殼網店CASETiFY及化妝品網店香港草莓網 StrawberryNET簽約，並擬拓展內地營銷團隊：「內地出口歐美市場達1000億元人民幣，退貨每件盈利約10至15美元（約78至117港元），希望可以增加相關服務，把盈利推高至20美元（約156港元）。」該公司亦積極在美國尋找循環回收相關夥伴，並與大企業洽談合作，有利把次貨在二手市場轉售。

Return Helper今年參與了由香港貿發局主辦、策略夥伴尚乘集團支持的第三屆初創企業培育計劃「創業快綫」，並成為優勝初創之一。Roy明言，香港貿發局不但安排媒體訪問，亦為他們聯絡廣州及台灣的辦事處，「創業快綫安排了我們跟廣州及台灣辦事處對接，並根據我們對於不同市場的需要，提供不同的意見及建議，以及介紹適當的合作夥伴以助我們拓展當地市場。」

香港貿易發展局

Infoman

大學時有位教授的課堂非常受歡迎，每堂都座無虛席，不是因為他的學問特別高，也不是課堂有趣，而是有考試貼士。上課期間，會突然在筆袋裏拿出小抄朗讀，竟然就是考試的選擇題題目！

近年內地網購興起直播，主要有兩種形式，第一種就是這樣的突然「優惠」模式。例如你喜歡水晶，兩小時的直播，可能就在某個時刻說這批貨半價，然後人們趕緊留言下單。人們不願錯過優惠，當然兩小時都聚精會神。這樣直播主就能輕易有兩小時的流量（和當年的教授一樣）和不少生意。

另一種則是帶貨模式，邀請一些名人名主播做直播。今天賣什麼不知道，兩小時直播可能賣十樣八樣東西，但價錢會比平時平許多，也是同樣限賣幾多份，先到先得。商家最重要是賣貨，便宜一點冇關係。賣的大部分都是公價貨品，消費者當然樂意有折扣，於是直播專場大受歡迎。

上周談論零售會往何處去？技術創新前，以上的直播模式根本不可行。但技術改善了，過往的不可行，現在就變成可行。

同樣創新的不只廣播模式。香港人喜歡吃泰國米，湖南有幾條深山僻壤，原是在清朝出產貢米的，從前資訊和物流不發達，沒有人知道。現在當地縣長上網做直播，讓全中國人都知道。物流又發達，貢米便能輕易運到全國各地（其他產品亦然）。你說新零售能玩出多少花樣來？

有朋友住在郊區，整個小區原來只有一間超市，但小區近日多了一家非常有趣的零售店。營運模式是貼出店主的WhatApps號碼，入群後每晚會發「菜單」，可能是日本帶子、波士頓龍蝦、馬來西亞榴槤，各適其適，喜歡的就下單，第二天4時後去實體店取貨，聽說這樣的店舖在香港已開了好多家。

新鮮食品的網購在內地更是花樣百出，許多城市人已開始在網上買水果和農產品，而不是再去街市和超市。因為這種產地直送的方式，往往更便宜也更方便，聽說產品質素較在超市的更佳。

惟直播和生鮮食品已經是零售業的終點嗎？零售業的核心是連接貨物和消費者，傳統零售不管是超市還是搜尋引擎，都是人找貨，未來可不可以是人工智能推薦的貨找人？

傳統是品牌生產後，再通過零售商賣給消費者。但人工智能出現後，可否從消費者過去購買紀錄，歸納出喜好後，再反向訂製？這樣的產品能更合乎消費者喜好，變成滯銷產品的機會也更低。

從前的網頁順序是按廣告費多少排列，未來會不會出現純以消費者喜好排列？這樣的網站會否更得消費者喜好？網購大概仍會有許多有趣故事，投資者應多關注零售行業的變化。

筆者為證監會9號業務持牌人

Infoman

在香港做到有聲有色的硬件品牌不多，近年比較矚目的就有雷蛇（01337），這個品牌對於一眾打機友或對電腦配件有要求的人應該不會陌生，就算沒有買過，也在電腦商場見過。雷蛇是一間在港上市的新加坡公司，創辦人陳民亮是新加坡人，本身是一名律師，之後轉行去做滑鼠，現已擴展至周邊產品。雷蛇上市後表現不算是一帆風順，2017年收入以硬件為主，分為周邊設備及電腦系統，前者毛利率較高，約25%至30%，後者毛利率較低，約5%至10%。

賣虛擬點數槓桿本業

雷蛇做硬件（包括周邊設備及電腦系統）沒有什麼行情，產品都是低毛利，護城河較低的產業；之後嘗試去做手機，可惜最後亦做不起，2019年手機業務愈做愈縮。做生意不是一帆風順相當正常，好多時候都是嘗試錯誤（trial and error）。

雷蛇手機未能突圍，軟件及服務反而愈做愈大，主要收入來源是Razer Gold。2019年上半年服務業務（包括Razer Gold虛擬信用積分及Razer FinTech）收入有6400萬美元，按年上升79.3%。這些收入毛利率較高，軟件及服務主要收入毛利佔比亦由20%增長至30%。

夥拍傳統基金攻FinTech

其實，Razer Gold是虛擬點數，機迷充值Razer Gold後，就可以用於購買遊戲或遊戲內容，收入和開發商對分，毛利高達45%。雷蛇本身做遊戲周邊產品，如今進入支付行業，Razer Gold可算是成功槓桿了本業。

除Razer Gold，雷蛇另一個亮點是進入FinTech行業，有趣的是與富蘭克林鄧普頓展開數碼財富管理合作。富蘭克林鄧普頓是傳統基金公司，在金融理財方面有絕對優勢，但是世界變了，現今客戶要的不只是傳統服務，還講求體驗，這是傳統基金公司沒有能力創造的。

筆者之前提過，最近成功打響名堂的美國證券行Robinhood是一個好例子，其服務平民化得來又像打機的感覺，令到Robinhood爆紅。雷蛇從硬件到支付，現在涉足金融，與基金公司合作，之前更參與新加坡金管局數碼銀行申請，合作方包括李澤楷持有的富衛集團、新加坡零售巨擘昇菘集團、亞洲互聯網公司Linksure等。

科技金融不再是普通存錢、借錢及投資，未來是靠傳統企業做不來的體驗。雷蛇具備面向國際化的新加坡背景，獅城作為一個非中國的金融樞紐，絕對是東南亞的金融中心，相信有利其發展。雷蛇開拓金融業務，可以算是陳民亮的再創業，他今年才42歲，三十而立，四十不惑，不惑之後再次創業的成功率應會更高。

本人及與本人有關之戶口有持有以上股份及相關衍生產品權益。

https://www.facebook.com/coffeehkej

Coffeehkej@gmail.com

Infoman

金融市場近日部署Biden Trade，股市買亞洲和新興市場，特朗普一旦下台，中美關係不會那麼差，亞洲地緣政治風險下降。此外，經濟步伐加速，債息上揚，沽美債和美元，商品買黃金及銅，美股的中小型股指數會跑贏大市值指數等，板塊押注基建及新能源。

老特一去亞洲政治風險降

大選形勢漸趨明朗，北半球進入秋冬季節，新冠肺炎疫情再爆發機會增加。環顧全球，以7天平均新增個案計，亞洲情況仍是最嚴重，達11萬宗，主要來自印度，但趨勢正在下滑。歐洲則是急速爬升期，確診者每天平均達7.7萬宗，遠高於4月時近4萬宗水平。北美處於橫行階段，每日約5.5萬宗。

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蔡英文將在周六上午發表演說，內容將提及台灣雖在疫情下維持經濟正成長，但全球疫情仍嚴峻的情勢下，必須對疫情後的全球經濟發展超前部署，打造新台灣經濟。

打造新台灣經濟的三大策略包括全方位投入供應鏈重組，讓台灣成為全球供應鏈不可或缺的關鍵力量；二是打造台灣成為國際資本、人才及數位技術滙聚的重鎮，以及落實經濟社會的均衡發展，讓台灣經濟發展的成果共享。

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https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1-Y5id76arFdlvL6zG5PbTNr7KvyD5VQG

Infoman

美國11月3日總統大選前最後一次聯儲局議息會議的紀錄在周三（7日）出爐，內容提到決策官員對經濟復甦的憂慮，又表明若延遲推出新紓困措施將有嚴重後果，警告第四季GDP增速放緩或超預期，這與聯儲局主席鮑威爾周二強調需要更多財政刺激的言論互相呼應。

然而，新一輪支援經濟措施能否順利出台仍充滿變數，因為確診新冠肺炎的總統特朗普返回白宮「極速復工」後，在周二突然下令，大選前不再與民主黨磋商紓困方案，觸發美股下滑，惟幾小時後又改口風，敦促國會立刻通過航空業及中小企分別達250億和1350億美元的援助計劃，並向每名國民派發現金1200美元。特朗普態度先強後軟，重燃市場對「華府救市」的憧憬，帶動道指周三重越28000點關，三大指數均收漲近2%。

美股自上月尾從低位回升，市場避險意欲逐步下降，可惜無助紓解短期不明朗因素引致的震盪，尤其大選已進入衝刺階段。標普500指數本周首3個交易日升跌幅皆超過1%，而量度10年期美債波動性的MOVE指數（Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index）周三亦勁飆18點（45%），屬3月新冠肺炎全球肆虐以來最大漲幅，反映債市同樣處戒備狀態。

恐慌指數（VIX）方面，周內多次逼近30的偏高水平，顯示投資者情緒欠穩。自1990年迄今，VIX指數10月平均值為21.41，是各月份中最波動，估計今個10月不會低於均值。

當然，波幅大不一定代表市況差，標指過去30年來10月份平均回報達1.38%，於12個月中位列三甲。可是，聯儲局從3月開始把指標利率減至接近零，並實施無限量寬（QE），刺激標指顯著上揚，至9月底的6個月內累漲30.1%，附【圖】所見，標指上一次半年升勢如此驚人，要追溯到2009年9月。回顧當年3月，為應對金融海嘯衝擊，多國央行史無前例地聯手減息，美股應聲造好，標指於3月至9月的半年內累漲逾三成，惟10月回吐1.98%。

儘管總統選戰是市場焦點，但高盛首席股票策略師David Kostin最新報告指出，對股市而言，最重要的消息是新冠疫苗何時面世，較「誰主白宮」更具影響力。他認為，疫苗愈早獲批，美股上升空間愈大；反之，標指可能跌破3000點。美國食品及藥物管理局（FDA）文件顯示，新冠疫苗審批要求必須有最少兩個月安全數據，確認沒有副作用並能提供持久保護後，才可獲得緊急批准，言下之意是疫苗肯定無法在大選前面世。

換句話說，美股「十月驚奇」不只來自選情，疫苗研發進展及環球疫情會否惡化，也可為股市帶來意想不到的波動，投資者要做好心理準備，保持謹慎

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Now the CDC confirms Covid-19 is airborne — here’s what that means for you Published Wed, Oct 7 20209:20 AM EDT Cory Stieg @CORYSTIEG

J_art | Moment | Getty Images The Centers for Disease Control revised its Covid-19 guidelines on Monday to include that the novel coronavirus can be spread through aerosols, which “can linger in the air for minutes to hours” and travel farther than six feet.

Until now it was understood that the coronavirus is spread is through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, sings, talks or breathes, and experts still believe that is the main way it is spread. But now experts also agree that airborne transmission is a key piece of the Covid-19 puzzle.

“I believe pretty confidently that there is some element [of airborne transmission],” White House advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday.

Here’s how to interpret these new guidelines and stay safe:

What it means that coronavirus is airborne

So what’s the difference between the virus spreading through respiratory droplets and being airborne? It comes down to the size of the droplets and how they travel.

Respiratory droplets are larger than aerosols — which are microscopic droplets or particles. Because of their size and weight, larger respiratory droplets get “sprayed like tiny cannonballs onto nearby individuals” and typically fall to the ground in a matter of seconds, within six feet of the source, according to paper published Monday in the journal Science, which called for stronger public health guidance on how the virus travels and spreads through the air.

Viruses in aerosols, on the other hand, are smaller and don’t just drop — they’re suspended in the air for minutes or hours and can be inhaled.

An easy way to visualize how these airborne particles act is to think about the way that cigarette smoke lingers and can be inhaled, Linsey Marr, coauthor of the paper and a professor of engineering at Virginia Tech, said in a press conference Monday. Like smoke, aerosols can accumulate in a confined space, like a poorly ventilated room or areas where people are breathing heavily.

Although aerosolized particles are much smaller than droplets, they can be concentrated enough to spread Covid-19 to other people, according to the CDC.

How to prevent airborne transmission of Covid-19

The best way to prevent the spread of Covid-19 is still wear a mask, maintain social distance and avoid large indoor gathering. Remember: The virus is mainly spread through respiratory droplets when people have close contact with one another.

Wearing a standard double-layer cloth face mask can add a layer of protection, because it prevents your respiratory droplets from spreading. But they don’t provide enough protection to filter out airborne or aerosolized particles, only a N95 respirator can do that. But the CDC says N95 respirators should be saved for health care workers and other medical first responders.

Since airborne spread is a possibility, keep in mind that indoor gatherings (especially in places that are not well ventilated) with people outside your household increase your risk of infection. Going back to the smoking analogy, picture a person smoking a cigarette in the room with you. “What if all of the people in that situation are smoking? Are you going to be exposed? Will you breathe a lot of cigarette smoke? If yes, you need to do something to change the situation,” Marr said in the release.

Beyond wearing a mask and maintaining social distance, using portable air purifiers is one way to reduce airborne contaminants in a space. And simply opening windows to introduce clean air into your space is another way to increase ventilation.

In September, the CDC posted a draft of revised guidelines that included information about airborne spread, and then removed the update. The agency said it was still in the process of updating its recommendations when they were published in error.

The new guidelines published Monday cite “published reports showing limited, uncommon circumstances where people with Covid-19 infected others who were more than 6 feet away or shortly after the COVID-19-positive person left an area,” the CDC said in a statement.

Infoman

零售是世上最大的行業，科網雖是科技行業，但根本上還是零售業，To B的也有，惟To C更多。消費需求不會大改，但消費行為隔一段時間便會轉變。是什麼讓消費者的行為變化？消費行為又會在什麼時候改變？回顧美國消費行業，或許會有啟示。

美國最初興起的是「爸爸媽媽」店，兩夫妻胼手胝足（有點似以往的辦館、士多），貨品種類不會很多，價格也不很便宜，但是大家街坊街里，比較有人情味。

到了十九世紀末，美國鐵路建好之後，消費品可以輕易地運送到全國各地，於是大型連鎖店快速普及，梅西百貨（Macy's）和Kmart快速進入市中心的黃金地段。

大超市奉行「便宜是王」

汽車普及後，零售業又有一番新景象。沒有汽車時，人們都往市中心湧去；自己有汽車後，去哪裏都可以。於是沃爾瑪（Walmart）專挑偏遠地區開店，租金便宜，成本下降，貨品也就更廉價。消費者多了，加大採購量，成本再次下降，又吸引更多消費者。

沃爾瑪也會參考附近商舖的價格，總之就是要比別人便宜。店長只有降價權，沒有加價權。一句話，便宜就是王。

沃爾瑪如日中天的時候，人們原以為消費模式已經走到盡頭，但之後又有好市多（Costco）的出現。沃爾瑪有14萬種產品（SKU），好市多只有約4000種。開店為何要包羅萬有？賣銷量最好的貨品便可以了。

好市多的策略是大量採購，把價錢壓低，然後直接用成本價來定價；吸引大量消費者後，把採購價進一步壓低，以吸引更多消費者。消費者都來後，便通過會員費賺錢。

再然後，便到網購出場。

需求永遠存在，後來者只是更好的滿足消費者需求，可能通過某種技術創新，又或者某個好主意。火車、汽車、電腦、互聯網、電子支付和物流，全都是革新零售行業的催化劑。

網購將進入生鮮食品領域

新冠肺炎疫情下，本港零售疲弱，許多人問零售業何時會復甦，也有人說關鍵是內地人會否再來港消費，惟同樣重要的是，零售業會出現怎樣的變化。網購近年在香港開始普及（同時街上空舖也愈來愈多），超市、百貨、商場是否會用同樣模式一直營運下去？這可是關係到未來好幾年的投資趨勢變化。

消費行為的改變，其實只是有關一個主題，那就是消費者的需求有沒有更好地獲滿足（後來者解決了什麼問題）。現在網購不一定比實體店便宜多少，但節省了時間和體力勞動。那麼網購已經是零售行業的盡頭？會不會還有網購2.0、3.0？

網購原是從書籍、電子產品開始，然後到衣履鞋襪，再到生活用品、食物、外賣等。再下一步，網購會否進入生鮮食品領域？從前網購是一個網站讓你搜尋貨品，未來又會不會有新的網購方法？又為何是現在變？下周續談。

筆者為證監會9號業務持牌人

hcl.hkej@gmail.com

Infoman

8) 假期安排

於服務期內，甲方將提供導師所有有薪公眾假期以及有薪學校假期。

Infoman

KOL帶貨做fb直播直銷

在黃埔海福樓飲茶之時，姬絲汀等三女士要求買自家製鳳梨酥，左丁山說供應者應付不暇，中秋後罷工，冇得傾。姬絲汀話：「不如索性轉行做生意啦，攞正牌在工業大廈搞個廚房，以後在廚房直播直銷鳳梨酥，有得諗。」識得做未必識得講，要搵人做主持噃，係一筆費用，姬絲汀話：「分成啫，固定費用比較少，是但搵個KOL做主持就掂。」

呢個世界咁易做生意賺錢？唔信。女士A話：「試吓無妨，現在連本港上市集團都搵KOL帶貨做fb直播直銷，顯然係一個新現像，內地網民多，網上直播直銷已成潮流。風氣傳到來香港，會唔會持續一段時間就唔知，但現在就受熱捧，所有digital marketing嘅人員都一窩蜂要加入。左丁山你不如加入做銀髮一族產品KOL。靠你把口在fb賣產品，或在蘋果動新聞開一個新戰場，賣得嘅話，全部贏贏贏，冇輸家。」

吓，臨老獻世，唔好啩。賣產品嘅KOL應該要求口才好，產品知識好，懂得捕捉顧客心理，懂控制節奏，唔好直播時出現悶場先至得噃。

女士G嘆一口氣：「左大哥真係老氣橫秋，一般KOL邊度駛有咁多優越條件吖，我上星期為咗公司想參加直播直銷，特別搵咗一個節目睇，只係賣紅酒嘅，只見一位女士做主持，面貌嬌俏，賣相唔錯，你估佢講乜呢：少少產品知識都唔識，一味講：呢隻紅酒好香醇，唔失禮，與老公撐枱腳時飲番一枝，大把情趣，好好味道，真係好飲㗎，包你喜歡，買番一枝試吓啦，三百蚊啫，真係冇得彈㗎，好好飲，信我，好好飲，包你男朋友，女朋友，老公，太太鍾意。哎吔（飲一啖），真係好好飲……」左丁山聽到為之失笑，女士A話：「你唔好笑，KOL即場收到成百個柯打，間供應商先至真係笑得咯！」左丁山聽完，覺得自己真係老到out晒，唔識當前潮流。不如蘋果動新聞開個直播台，搵畢明做KOL賣紅酒啦，要賣過千蚊一枝嘅香檳，紅酒，白酒，威士忌……又搵蔡瀾賣呢種嗰種醬油及東南亞特別食品……黃之鋒賣日本卡通模型！老些少嘅人就會記得三十幾年前美國流行電視直銷產品節目，現在改個平台，由電視改為網上，即買即付款，總之橋唔怕舊，最緊要受，新瓶裝舊酒，仍然賣得。

Infoman

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