Avatarify: Photorealistic Avatars for Skype and Zoom
127 chris_overseas 7 hrs 12
Unable to load the content https://github.com/alievk/avatarify
Member since 2017-07-15T03:50:57Z. Last seen 2024-09-15T12:48:52Z.
2670 blog posts. 127 comments.
127 chris_overseas 7 hrs 12
Unable to load the content https://github.com/alievk/avatarify
輪到俄羅斯暫停穀物出口。俄羅斯境內武漢肺炎疫情持續爆發,上周五宣佈暫停多種穀物出口6個星期。疫情爆發後,俄羅斯同鄰近國家4月初已經開始用配額限制穀物出口,包括小麥、大麥、黑麥同粟米,4至6月配額700萬噸。700萬噸約莫就係舊年同期水平,所以最初配額制,只為防搶購出口太多,唔算收緊。俄羅斯農業部上周五宣佈此配額用完後就會暫停穀物出口,預計配額5月中或之前將會用盡,所以停出口6個星期即係到6月尾。要知道,俄羅斯係全球第一小麥出口國。
另一邊廂,執筆時WTI油價跌到14蚊(美元,下同),已經20年冇試過。跌到10幾蚊,對上一次要數到97金融風暴後,WTI最低跌到11蚊。油價跌到咁平自然好多人想撈底,同時由於期油現時仍係contango,會有炒家做Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage買現貨沽期貨賭。所以此時有個現象,海上漂浮住1.6億桶原油。VLCC超大油輪,一艘可以載200萬桶油,最新統計海上有60艘,比兩星期前多一倍,而且仍在持續增加。
國際能源總署早前指疫情令全球原油消耗每日少2,000萬桶,高盛則估每日消耗少2,600萬桶,但OPEC+減產協議只係減970萬桶。陸上儲油設施已爆棚,上一次油輪載滿石油周圍泊景象,係中共在油價140蚊時搞戰略儲備,然後油價插到09年的40蚊之際,當時海上儲油亦只係1億桶。因此就算慢慢開始復工,原油積壓的庫存都會令油價一段時間內難上。
作為世界工廠的中國,官方雖然宣佈疫情趨緩,復工率大升,但研究公司SpaceKnow以衞星收集中國超過5,000個供應鏈聚點的紅外線數據,其活動指數顯示中國供應鏈持續大幅萎縮。此外,以衞星收集中國上空的甲烷同臭氧值,以空氣污染評估開工率,發現經濟活動仍然低迷。
1929年大蕭條第一個出現的特殊現象,係需求突然一夜消失。牛奶多到要倒入河,糧食多到用來當柴燒。伴隨而來係全國性大規模失業,大量平民冇得食要去糧食銀行排隊。第二個特殊現象,係日本兩任財相井上準之助及高橋是清,分別先後用通縮及通脹兩個方法試驗解決經濟蕭條。前者失敗,後者表面短暫成功,但下場都係被刺殺。經濟衰退,人心就會躁動,改革思潮湧現。無論是否願意改革,都將要面對歷史的推進。一種改革係修改舊制度,另一種扮改革係演變成民粹。毫無疑問,這是劇變前夕。
Mr. Tregunter 本欄逢周二刊出
https://www.facebook.com/%E5%84%AA%E4%B9%8B%E7%A8%8B%E5%BC%8F-Unikid-Education-127083743972898/
Vocabulary Builder旨在幫助提高英語詞彙並學習新的英語單詞,而不會引起信息過載。對於SAT,GRE,GMAT,雅思,托福,CAT等考試非常有用。
該應用嘗試通過遵循“每日一詞”格式,每天添加一個新詞來實現上述目的。這些單詞是從經過仔細選擇的,相關且有用的單詞的數據庫中檢索到的。
可以根據需要定制練習測驗,以使其具有挑戰性或容易性。一旦您有足夠的信心,就可以與其他玩家並肩作戰,從而名列榜首!
主要特點
通過集成文本,圖像和音頻,Vocab Express提供了一個引人入勝的環境,在此環境中,學生可以構建自己的詞彙表,同時由老師監控和跟踪其進度。
現在也可以通過其iOS和Android移動應用程序在旅途中使用Vocab Express。
使用Vocab Express的主要好處如下:
減少老師的工作量
預加載,預分類的考試板和教科書詞彙/術語
詞彙/術語測試,無需任何準備或標記
設置為家庭作業,課堂活動或補習班
吸引學生並提高學習成績
易於使用的基於Web的界面
使用適用於iOS和Android的移動應用,可在家中,學校或旅途中訪問
通過競爭力激勵
評估學生進度
實時活動和進度監控
個別學生追踪
共享類計分板
實際上,您可能在一天或一周的整個過程中都正常地進行了很多操作,甚至沒有註意到它。
從大聲朗讀給學齡前兒童到簡單地進行交談,您正在幫助小孩子學習單詞-它們如何工作,它們的含義,它們如何相同,如何不同以及更多。父母可以在語言障礙的情況下幫助他們提高語言能力。實際上,父母為幫助孩子克服挑戰所做的努力越多,孩子為上幼兒園做的準備就越充分。
患有自閉症,言語失用症和口吃症等疾病的孩子的父母可能要在開始之前諮詢言語治療師。通常,治療師可以推薦有效的技巧來增強口語和接受性語言技能。
這是您每天可以做的一些簡單而有趣的詞彙創建活動,可以幫助您教孩子新單詞。
鼓勵預閱讀和識字的活動1訪問圖書館可增加學齡前兒童的詞彙量JGI /湯姆·格里克/混合圖像/蓋蒂圖片社
如果您正在尋找一個開始培養學齡前兒童的詞彙量和早期閱讀能力的好地方,那麼,就在您當地的圖書館旁。研究表明,圖書館的使用與幼兒的識字能力之間存在很強的相關性.1
如果您不確定到達那里後該怎麼辦,請向您的圖書管理員尋求幫助。
只是在周圍有很多書籍和文學參考文獻的地方走,將大大幫助您的學齡前兒童舒適地閱讀。兒童圖書館經常為幼兒舉辦有趣而有趣的活動,使他們接觸新單詞,並為他們提供社交的機會。
2替代同義詞向孩子介紹新單詞的一種簡單方法是自己使用它們。畢竟,您是孩子的第一個也是最好的榜樣。
一種方法是成為步行同義詞庫,並用同義詞替換各種單詞。雖然同義詞通常是指相同意思的詞,但通常同義詞比原始詞更具描述性。
當談到學前詞彙的建立時,巨大總比總好。以下是一些其他建議:
寒冷:涼爽,寒冷,苦澀,凍結,生熱:溫暖,潮濕,沸騰,熱帶聰明:聰明,明亮,燦爛,明智Thesaurus.com是查找同義詞的理想資源。
3教和加強字母唱歌ABC歌曲可以使正在學習字母表的孩子有一些加強和信心。好處是:這是讓學齡前兒童在長途汽車,候車室或排隊等車時忙碌的好方法。
您還可以使用字母玩遊戲,例如“我要去野餐”或“字母遊戲”,在其中您可以按字母順序命名以字母開頭的項目。
您的小孩子可能還會喜歡在線玩學習遊戲,這些遊戲專注於培養字母技能。
4使用描述性單詞談到增加孩子的詞彙量,多多益善。您的孩子每天聽到的單詞越多,她就會學會,吸收和最終使用自己的語言。
嘗試在日常對話中使用各種描述性詞語。例如,在描述織物圖案時,請嘗試使用諸如不尋常,放鬆或富有創意的詞語。這些單詞可能目前尚無法理解,但是通過在適當的上下文中使用它們,您將使它們更易於理解。
5創建標籤如果您想讓學齡前兒童學習更多單詞,請使其簡單。除了經常說出來,還顯示給他們看。
通過使用標籤製造商命名常用物品來建立對基本單詞的基本理解,以便她學會識別單詞的外觀。
例如,如果將她的玩具分成不同的類似物品箱,請在箱子上貼上標籤,例如積木,玩偶,汽車,書籍等。
6成為超級分類員在介紹新單詞時,我們正在學習。教您的學齡前兒童如何分類和分類將有助於他們的邏輯思維和建立詞彙量。
幫助學齡前兒童學習新單詞的一種好方法是接受他們所聽到的內容,並使其形象化。使用抽認卡或從雜誌上剪下圖片來進行此遊戲。
7練習押韻押韻不僅很有趣,而且還是讓幼兒思考不同單詞之間如何相互聯繫的一種簡便方法。
您的學齡前兒童能想出幾個押韻的單詞?肥貓坐在墊子上。白色的風箏在晚上飛。
蘇斯博士的書籍是學習押韻的重要資源,例如“隨上隨下”,“綠雞蛋”和“火腿”。
8一起大聲朗讀除了與學齡前兒童共度美好時光外,大聲朗讀是一種讓他們接觸新單詞的好方法。
選擇您的學齡前兒童感興趣的書,但使用的單詞要比他們的理解能力稍高。通過使用上下文,您可以在一起一起理解它們的含義-頁面上的其他單詞以及頁面上可能存在的任何圖片。
繼續使用您的預閱讀器如您所見,增加孩子的詞彙量並不困難,但是在他們開始閱讀的過程中有必要。
在某些情況下,例如帶您的孩子去圖書館或在家裡貼標籤,則需要進行預先計劃。但是在大多數情況下,幫助您的孩子學習和融入新單詞只是您日常工作的一部分。
TwitterPinterestLinkedIn整合讀寫能力並在課堂上發展語言發展的方式!
語言和讀寫能力是任何學前班教室的重要組成部分,培養孩子的詞彙量是促進語言和讀寫能力的關鍵組成部分。
通常,當“詞彙”一詞涉及一件事時,可能會想到“牆”一詞。學齡前教室中的單詞牆可以幫助吸引人們注意新單詞和印刷單詞,但是詞彙表是關於通過將單詞付諸行動並建立有意義的聯繫來建立意義和理解的。在幼儿期提高詞彙量應該是課堂體驗中自然而有趣的一部分。讓我們來看看如何在學前班裡提升孩子的詞彙量。
強調新詞
您要記住的第一件事是每個新單詞都很重要。我們不是在談論在字典中搜索複雜的單詞。我們所談論的是強調單詞是兒童自然環境和日常生活的一部分。例如,如果您要幫助孩子穿上夾克,請說“夾克,拉鍊,穿上和脫下”,並邀請孩子通過提問或隨意交談使用這些詞。
編織新的含義
使新單詞對您的學生有意義且實用。通過自然地將新單詞融入到您與孩子們關於遊戲的對話中,將新單詞融入您的遊戲和日常生活中。
強調情感詞
引入能夠使學齡前兒童表達自己的感情和情感的詞語。在與學生的日常對話中,可以使用諸如快樂,悲傷,瘋狂,加重,沮喪,疲倦,孤獨和愉快之類的詞語。
強調對象的名稱
介紹熟悉但不太熟悉的對象,這些對象會引起興趣並促進對話。
使用大量描述性詞
“您選擇使用綠色...您的手小而我的手大...漢娜的頭髮很長,胡安的頭髮很短...此水位上的玩具又濕又冷……請將您的紙放在圓桌上……你有兩隻手和兩隻腳。”
通過書籍和圖片強調單詞
每天大聲閱讀,並經常重複喜歡的書。與幼兒一起大聲朗讀有助於他們在印刷文字和故事圖片之間建立聯繫。當孩子們聽到這個故事時,他們將吸引您正在閱讀的單詞以及他們分享的意思。
邀請兒童探索書籍
也允許孩子們在自己的時間自由探索感興趣的書籍。您與孩子們一起閱讀的書籍是對孩子讀書區的絕佳補充,因為孩子們已經對這本書的內容和書中的單詞種類有了一定的了解。在孩子們互相閱讀或與您讀書時,花點時間聽孩子們的聲音。
在整個課堂中整合印刷文字
包括強調熟悉的對象,概念和想法的名稱的單詞,並在整個教室的重要位置顯示印刷的單詞。當您的學生對單詞感興趣時,通過在日常對話中使用這些單詞來幫助孩子們識別單詞。
保持孩子們的名字和視野
一個孩子學習並發現最有意義的單詞之一就是他或她的名字。在整個教室中保持孩子的名字可見和可訪問。
建立詞彙是一個持續的過程,應該在有意和自然的學習機會之間取得平衡。
The app tries to accomplish the above by following a "Word Of The Day" format, adding a new word each day. The words are retrieved from a database of carefully selected words that are relevant and useful.
The practice quiz can be customized to make it challenging or easy, depending on your needs. Once you are confident enough, play head to head against other players to top the leaderboards!
Key Features:- -> Multiplayer Quiz -> Dual Theme - Light And Dark - Choose your favourite! -> Dark Bi-chrome Theme To Reduce Eye Strain -> Customizable Quiz - Choose quiz source, type, number of questions and time per question -> Quiz Mode To Test Vocabulary -> Star Difficult Words -> Long Press To Bookmark Word - During scrolling, down arrow takes you to the bookmarked word -> Random Tab - Displays a Word at random, along with usage and examples -> Search Available Words -> New Word Each Day -> Home Screen Widget
Note:- 1) Some manufactures like Xiaomi do not use the stock android but their own custom android, which blocks certain features of applications in order to conserve battery. This may prevent the automatic daily word fetch from working. It is recommended that you white-list this application from the blockers for the best user experience.
In MIUI (Xiaomi devices), go to Security -> Permissions -> Autostart -> Select Vocabulary Builder
2) The app uses a text to speech engine for pronunciation. It is highly recommended to download the Google Text To Speech Engine for the best experience.
3) Additional Voice Data may need to be downloaded to use voice accents other than your device default. If you are on a Wi-Fi network, the download will be done automatically. If you are on a cellular network, go to Settings -> Language & Input -> Text-to-speech output -> Google text to speech engine settings and then disable "Use Wi-Fi only". In rare cases, you may have to install the voice manually using "Install voice data".
https://www.vocabexpress.com/co/schools/
Vocab Express was originally designed with the assistance of a number of leading language departments which shaped it into a unique and intuitive vocabulary learning platform. It has now been extended to include key terminology for the humanities and sciences.
By integrating text, images and audio, Vocab Express provides an engaging environment in which students can build their vocabulary whilst their progress is being monitored and tracked by their teachers.
Vocab Express can now also be used on the move via its iOS and Android mobile apps.
Minimise teacher workload
Pre-loaded, pre-categorised exam board and text book vocab / terms
Vocabulary / terminology tests with no preparation or marking overhead
Set as homework, in-class activity or cover lesson
Engage students and raise attainment
Easy-to-use web-based interface
Accessible at home, at school or on the move with our mobile app for iOS and Android
Motivates through competitiveness
Assess pupil progress
Real-time activity and progress monitor
Individual student tracking
Sharable class scoreboard
證監會去年宣布,把「證券型」虛擬資產或代幣交易服務平台納入監管範圍,惟相關市場在香港相對淡靜。德勤認為,如果要進一步發展,可考慮以央行數碼貨幣,為虛擬資產作底層支持,可望對虛擬資產市場交易帶來一定保障和信心。
針對零售投資者
按證監去年所發指引,日後證券型代幣發行(STO)交易平台須領有1號(證券交易)及7號(提供自動化交易服務)牌照,香港資本市場相當成熟,但虛擬資產關注度相對較低。德勤中國操守及法規總監張彥博稱,兩者發展並無衝突,虛擬資產可作為一項分散風險的投資工具,但機構投資者參與程度較低,加上過往一直是散戶甚至是投機者的焦點,故監管機構例如香港證監會亦要實行一定監控,以保障投資者。
張彥博說,現時香港的監管要求是監控平台活動,主要讓投資者能夠選擇在受到妥善規管的平台上買賣,有關平台則採用嚴格準則,以篩選可在平台買賣的虛擬資產,較為針對保障零售投資者。
如果要進一步發展虛擬資產市場,德勤中國管理諮詢合夥人冼君行提出,政府以至監管機構可考慮以不同央行數碼貨幣作支持。參考海外市場,不少地區都有央行發行的數碼貨幣,為當地發行或交易的虛擬資產作底層支持。
兌換法定貨幣反映實際價值
冼君行補充,過往加密及虛擬資產未有全面的監管框架,各地監管機構對管理反洗黑錢等問題相當關注,個別地區亦因為有外滙管制,令虛擬資產觸及當地央行和監管機構的神經。由於央行貨幣往往由當地的法定貨幣兌換,有實際價值,為市場交易虛擬資產時帶來一定保障和信心,監管機構亦可追蹤資產來源,更有效監控反洗黑錢等問題。
虛擬資產多涉及區塊鏈應用,冼君行建議,由於相關技術發展多年,至今已相當成熟,要活化整個市場不一定由監管機構做起,私營機構亦愈來愈多利用區塊鏈,在累積一定經驗的前提下可自行推動發展。至於日後交易,冼君行建議,可由具質素的銀行任託管方,因為該類金融機構有上佳託管經驗,即使新模式如虛擬資產,德勤亦有提供打造相關系統的服務,相信結合銀行和德勤的知名度,可為市場帶來更大信心。
證券型代幣風險較低
他解釋,虛擬資產一般牽涉區塊鏈技術,加密後私隱度高,管理資產機構可向客戶提供一個私鑰(Private Key),確保客戶是唯一可以管理相關資產的授權人。
對於未來監管趨勢,張彥博表示,現時證券型代幣發行較受監管機構歡迎,因為背後有實際資產,對金融穩定構成較低風險。如果公司以首次代幣發行(ICO)集資,該類資產較適合用作投資,因為背後未必有真正資產價值,價格大幅波動時不利日常營運支付。
虛擬貨幣用途大致可分為交易型代幣(Exchange Token)和功能型代幣(Utility Token),冼君行直言,交易型代幣可用於多種不同場景;功能型代幣屬消費者買入個別發行商的代幣後,可用作日後發行商提供服務的支付代價,性質有如代用券,故嚴格監控的誘因不大。
採訪、撰文:董曉沂
4月19日,周日。美股續在眾人眼中「豈有此理」的情況下造好,標普500指數繼前周勁升12%後,上周再漲3%,不足一個月已從此潮收市低位2237.4(3月23日)反彈兩成八。
驚嚇數據源源不絕,即使相對樂觀的論者,也不敢輕信美股已見「熊底」,遑論「真牛」重臨。然而,作為交易者/投資者,必須學會尊重市場,皆因市場不一定對,卻永遠走在紛紛擾擾的意見之先,等到大多數人都認同此刻看似「違反直覺」的現象時,新的牛市很可能早已誕生。
讓行動成為看法見證
這當然不等於逆主流意見而為必有所獲,但企業營運資金何時耗盡、太快重啟經濟會否弄巧反拙,這些都是投資者必須面對卻又沒有確切答案的風險。在鐘擺的另一端,聯儲局在金融體系裏裏外外大灑helicopter money、政府直接向國民派錢兼為周轉困難的企業提供緊急貸款,此等鎮痛保命、形同「包底」的措施是否足以令經濟避過現代版大蕭條,同樣有待事實證明。
換句話說,市場上的risks與counter-risks一次過「擺晒上枱」,作為實戰者,重要的早就不是睇好睇淡,而是讓行動成為看法的最佳見證,由市場來決定對錯。
經過最近三周升勢,美股愈來愈不似單純的超賣反彈,後續力之強非「死貓」所應有。坊間焦點這陣子落在醫治新冠肺炎藥物瑞德西韋(Remdesivir)臨床測試傳出喜訊、美國總統特朗普公布分三階段重啟經濟指引等消息,但從交易者的角度看,這種fit a story into the price的解釋,對操作成敗起不了任何作用。
好消息對提振市場氣氛自然有幫助,惟美股已從低位反彈近三成,睇新聞做嘢,慢幾多拍真係唔識計。說到這點,有一件事值得跟大家分享。富經驗的交易者都會參考各式各樣市場指標,那雖是必不可少的日常「功課」,但在波動正常的日子,諸如「恐慌指數」VIX,又或觀察市場整體動能的市寬(market breadth)指標,非但沒必要時時刻刻掛在唇邊,倘若過度解讀,輕則多此一舉,重則小題大做扭曲事實。然而,市況不尋常如這兩個月,此等指標對捕捉轉角時機卻大派用場。
善用指標勿亂陣腳
VIX於3月16日爆穿80水平,而紐交所新高減新低指數更早在3月11日便觸底,兩者皆比美股見底為早,此後VIX雖仍處於較正常日子高的水平,惟拾級而下格局明顯;另一邊廂,紐交所創52周新低股份數目則持續下降。這些當然要在事後方能確認,但足以證明不少市場指標走在大市及五時花六時變的新聞前頭。作為交易者,最令人沮喪的不是沒有參考指標布陣,而是架式擺好卻敗在臨門一腳。
此話怎說?在極端波動的市況中,VIX或市寬指標領先大市的功能儘管可靠,惟領先多少並無鐵律可依。以此次為例,VIX見頂、新高減新低指數觸底,分別較標普500指數早了5個和8個交易日。
聽起來一點不遠,但股市愈接近絕望/投降(capitulation),大圍愈是要錢不要貨,投資者若在上述指標處於極端水平時入市撈底,往往碰正勢頭特別急勁的「終極一跌」,心血少些難保不會就此給震走。
唱淡容易造淡難
亂了陣腳及時調整唔係講咁易,回過魂來許多人已不敢追,即使睇啱兼做啱,到頭來也可能空歡喜一場。撈底撈正個nadir談何容易,這次參考市場指標行事,等的時間不長,美股反彈且極急極快,捱幾天便迎上八十多年來最強勁的rally,當中不無運氣成分。
直至此刻,認為美股將再試上月低位者多,相信熊底已現者少。問題是,唱淡容易造淡難,若非建議沽空,剩下來的選項大概就是等候股市彈完再冧,塵埃落定後才買。
聽起來好像很理性,但市場唔會理閣下點諗。以港人熟悉的道指為討論基礎,要返回上月低位,意味從目前水平插近6000點,跌幅約兩成半,雖云「疫世」下諸事不明朗,任何可能性皆不容排除,可是不論華爾街抑或大街,經濟再差都有人估,數據「符合」預期已不足引發新一波恐慌。沿此路進,等候股市再瀉,無異於「寄望」數據比本已嚇壞人的預測更恐怖。果真如此,試問還有多少人敢買?由此可見,靜待「塵埃落定」並非真正的投資策略。
值得注意的反而是,標指自高至低劇挫34%,再從低位極速反彈28%,目前較2月19日歷史高位只低15%,可謂說熊不熊,說牛不牛。在這個關鍵時刻,美國企業盈利未來一兩季若一如最壞估算般差,現水平的美股在估值上便有可能變得比一切未發生時更「貴」,從而影響牛熊對決的最終戰果,那才是眼前市況看點所在。
投資金句嗒落有味
市場現在最擔心的是救得了人救不了經濟,對諸如藥物測試見成效、病毒檢測大規模應用等有助經濟盡快解封的「好消息」,反應明顯較零售史上最差、失業破盡紀錄等「已知」的壞消息強烈,悲觀一族要搬出政府救市過度可能觸發新一輪歐債危機,作為支持股市必見「第二隻腳」的論據。到底美股升得「脫離現實」,還是疫潮未過便大談歐債危機「為淡而淡」,老畢實在唔識答,唯一認同的只有方立祺兄周末那句話:By the time the dust settles, the car is long gone……當真嗒落有味!
以投資者目前持有現金水平之高, 2008年金融海嘯猶如小巫見大巫,peak pessimism何嘗不是另一種領先指標?老畢選擇繼續「違反直覺」,把注碼押在樂觀的一面。明天嘗試換個角度,從板塊表現、市場結構等層面替美股進行一個簡單的「壓力測試」。
(編者按:畢老林最新著作《我的投資日記》現已發售)
歡迎訂購:實體書、電子書
美國股市已顯著升勢結束上一周走勢。展望本周,專家相信,美國藍籌業績消息將繼續成為市場焦點,尤其是企業高層的觀點,勢必反映藍籌有沒有能力應對新冠肺炎大流行病的衝擊,而主導股市本周動態。
回顧美國股市上周表現,三大指數累計都錄得顯著升幅,其中納指上漲超過6%,主要是受惠於新冠肺炎疫情趨於穩定,美國及歐洲多國包括德國籌備重啟封閉的經濟,加上有醫治新冠病毒的藥物,據報在美國試驗期間取得正面療效等消息。
踏入本周,除了疫情因素外,市場首要看重的應是藍籌業績消息。標準普爾500指數的成分股內,將有五分之一於本周陸續公布首季財報,涉及的行業類別廣泛,包括綜合企業、耐用消費品生產商,以及串流服務商等,勢必成為投資者評估疫情衝擊的重要指標。資料顯示,本周公布的有可樂、英特爾、洛歇馬丁、Verizon等等。
根據Refinitiv統計最新顯示,市場預期標指成分股平均盈利跌幅為12.8%,變幅遠較4月1日時的4.7%為差。
Abbot Downing副投資總監Carol Schleif認為,藍籌業績數據不是今次投資者考量焦點,而是企業高層的觀點,因為本周公布的藍籌,包括深受疫情重創的航空業,例如達美與西南等,而該等企業高層如何評估未來情況,將主導市場人士決定。
Cherry Lane Investments合夥人Rick Meckler也相信,雖說業績惡劣幾乎是肯定的事,但企業高層在財報後的言論,對於市場評估華府救市措施的成效也有其重要作用。
Greenwood Capital投資總監Walter Todd表示,高層們的回應內容被視為評估企業是否真的可在疫後恢復一定運作的指標。
回顧上周,市場對於藍籌業績的反應是個別發展。公布業績的銀行股表現欠佳,標普銀行分項指數上周跌近15%。不過,強生與聯合健康等股份表現佳,支持標指整體上升。
Horizon Investment Services行政總裁Chuck Carlson相信,與上周相似,如果藍籌公布的業績消息未有充分反映在股價之上,將成為被沽售的主要對象。
Exercise Demo video (PTH)
Exercise Demo (with scenes) for parents https://uniteach.com/eclass/eng/exercise/scene-demo
Exercise Demo for parents https://uniteach.com/eclass/kinder/wyRmPYAS
Exercise Demo (PTH)
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https://uniteach.com/eclass/eng/exercise/washface
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K2
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K3
MAD MONEY WITH JIM CRAMER
PUBLISHED THU, APR 16 20207:55 PM EDT Tyler Clifford @TYLERTHETYLER KEY POINTS “Unfortunately, there are a lot more losers than winners here and many of them have become uninvestible,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said. “These stocks are this market’s Achilles heel, and whenever they bounce, you’ve got to sell them and swap into the winners, like the tech and health-care companies that are helping us overcome the pandemic,” the “Mad Money” host said.
WATCH NOW VIDEO07:04 Jim Cramer advises investors sell these groups of stocks ‘whenever they bounce’ Wall Street is flooded with companies damaged by the global pandemic, and investors need to stay away from many industries, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday.
The coronavirus outbreak and associated lockdowns have drastically redirected or wiped out consumer demand, and economic activity has nearly evaporated, creating an uncertain future for many businesses.
“Unfortunately, there are a lot more losers than winners here and many of them have become uninvestible,” the “Mad Money” host said. “These stocks are this market’s Achilles heel, and whenever they bounce, you’ve got to sell them and swap into the winners, like the tech and health-care companies that are helping us overcome the pandemic.”
Below are Cramer’s thoughts on industries and some stocks that he has deemed untouchable.
Autos
Millions of people are now working, studying and doing most other things from home. Additionally, tens of millions more have lost their jobs in the past four weeks. As more time is spent at home, less is spent on the road.
“Once you get used to skipping your commute, I think driving becomes a lot less appealing,” Cramer said.
“There’s only one automaker that I am recommending. Of course, that’s Tesla.”
Oil and gas
Global crude prices sank as Saudi Arabia and Russia, two key figures in OPEC and OPEC+, toiled over oil production guidelines before agreeing to a historic supply cut earlier this week. Furthermore, stay-at-home mandates and travel restrictions have depleted demand for oil. The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude tanked more than 66% year to date to just over $20 as of Thursday afternoon.
“If we’re no longer commuting to work, that means we use a lot less gasoline,” Cramer said. “That whole group’s untouchable, and those big dividends [are] not safe.”
Travel
Whenever the federal government decides to lift travel restrictions, the airline industry may find a slump in business travel demand, Cramer said. Remote work tools, such as Zoom Video, make holding teleconferences more feasible and accessible, decreasing the need to fly across country for important meetings.
This is bad for future revenues for carriers and lodging companies, Cramer pointed out.
“Now that everyone’s comfortable with video sessions and the economy’s rolling over, cutting down on air travel seems like an obvious way to save money,” he said.
“You’re not staying at a popular chain of hotels if you’re not going around the country or the world. Anything that’s levered to travel is in trouble, including American Express.”
Commercial REITs
Well-run commercial real estate operators face a lot of headwinds, Cramer said. On top of the challenges brick-and-mortar retailers were already facing, demand for office space is shrinking due to the number of businesses closing up shop and taking advantage of newfound telework capabilities.
“Boston Properties [and] SL Green [are] obvious ones. No go. Whole group [is] horrendous, especially since so many renters are feeling emboldened about not paying their rent.”
Disclaimer
Humans and technology
Gentle, comforting games like Nintendo’s latest hit are perfect escapist entertainment, but they’re also helping us to connect in these strange times.
by Tanya Basu archive page April 16, 2020 nintendo animal crossing new horizons screenshot coronavirus quarantine shelter in place isolation connection NINTENDO If you’d told Areeba Imam a month ago that she’d become obsessed with Nintendo’s Animal Crossing, she wouldn’t have believed you.
“I’ve never played video games before,” says the 23-year-old college student, who is currently hunkered at her parents’ home in northern Virginia as the pandemic tightens its grip on the US. “The only game I knew about was Mario Kart on the computer, because my sister used to play it. I didn’t even know there were different consoles.”
But last week, bored and stuck at home, Imam bought a Nintendo Switch Lite and downloaded only one game: Animal Crossing.
Areeba Imam @simamareeba I’ve never really properly played video games in my entire life but I finally gave in and got a switch lite to play animal crossing which as it turns out is a fascist and capitalist island where I’m already indebted to the person charge for just existing! what in the world?! 🙃
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In the game, players are encouraged to build up a deserted island led by a potbellied raccoon real estate tycoon and his nephews and chat with a series of goofy anthropomorphic animals. Imam finds the game both an escape and a safe space to reconnect with friends. “I’ve met a couple of friends and visited their islands, which has been nice, kind of like seeing them,” she says. “We’re not talking about what’s happening in our lives, which is refreshing in that we don’t have to panic.”
She’s not the only one finding solace and connection on a digital island during the current crisis. Actress Brie Larson conducted an interview with Elle magazine from her “Dessert Island,” model Chrissy Teigen has tweeted about her obsession with the game, and singer Lil Nas X has put out a request on Instagram to connect with others.
chrissy teigen ✔ @chrissyteigen It’s very organized and clean. Flowers in rows only, etc. Very boring and Pleasantville. https://twitter.com/vanejpeg/status/1245537145919541248 … vane @vanejpeg Replying to @chrissyteigen Now I wanna know what your island looks like if you’re not crafting
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Animal Crossing is not the only game to create a virtual escape for people frustrated with being locked inside; others include a similar land development game, Stardew Valley. Gentle, non-violent games have—along with baking elaborate loaves of bread, puzzling, and mastering the art of Zoom happy hour—become one of our coronavirus isolation coping mechanisms.
These games are more than escapist entertainment, though; they’re helping to reshape how we connect in a future where social distancing might become the norm. Video games are letting people chat, connect, and meet new people. In the past month alone, graduations, wedding ceremonies, protests, and virtual meetups with pals were coordinated on lush pixelated screens. Meanwhile, students in San Antonio and the Bronx have re-created their high schools in Minecraft, and Final Fantasyplayers organized a digital memorial march when one of their own died of the coronavirus. While the pandemic and ensuing lockdown have dramatically changed the way we live our lives, video games offer a way for us to safely indulge in our basic human need to connect.
Cecilia D'Anastasio ✔ @cecianasta 😭😭😭 View image on Twitter
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Rachel Kowert, a research psychologist who has studied gaming for the past decade, suggests that the overwhelming urge is not fantasy and distraction so much as a desperate need to have control over something—anything. Imam says as much: “I can’t control what’s going on right now, but I can control the tasks I do on my island, and it’s calming.”
Many of these “comforting” games are classified as “life simulators,” Kowert says. The activities they involve allow players to feel a sense of normalcy. They aren’t grounded in fantasy; rather, they run on a frontier-like narrative of building the land and connecting with neighbors to create community, fostering an environment where players feel they don’t compete but work together. It also allows for communication—as you team up to gather fossils and fish, for example. Real-world dynamics come into play as well (annoying younger siblings can barge into your room here, too, see the TikTok below).
🤨🤨🤨🤨 #animalcrossing #newhorizons #animalcrossingnewhorizons #acnh
♬ No thats your debt - ohnodeer These games are also easy to play, lowering the bar to entry. “There’s not a lot of effort to play them—not a lot of buttons, no pressure, no stress, no one chasing you,” Kowert says. If you want to cultivate and sell vegetables, you can. If you want to spend an entire day decorating your house, you can. If you want to learn the neighborhood gossip, fish, or explore a forest, you can. There is no one right way to spend a day, and usually all it takes is moving a joystick one direction or another to see the world.
“In Animal Crossing, it’s going to another island and playing with your friends,” says Kowert. “In Stardew Valley, it’s getting to know the villagers around you. These are parasocial relationships.”
Kind Words is another game that helps players in lockdown communicate with strangers. In it, an avatar sits at a desk in a digital bedroom and types out questions about real-world personal problems. In return, other players respond with encouraging notes. The game takes place entirely within the space of a room, with players receiving and sending notes via digital envelope.
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Released in September, Kind Words was originally designed as an antidote to an increasingly vitriolic internet environment, says co-creator Ziba Scott. In recent weeks, though, it’s taken on an additional role as a comforting, safe way for people to communicate. Last week, the game saw an increase of 17,000 messages from the week before, many of which included words like “quarantine,” “covid,” and “sick,” says Scott.
Chris Ferguson, a video game researcher at Stetson University, says that games like Kind Words and Animal Crossing are following in the footsteps of microniche online communities that have popped up over the past few years. Much of the game play is built around the relationships that gamers can form with like-minded players. That’s especially important in the coronavirus era.
“I think the value proposition is a lot clearer,” says Scott. People who had never played games before the current crisis could now suddenly see how games could help them connect, he says. Even the WHO is now encouraging people to stay home and play video games, using the hashtag #PlayApartTogether. That’s certainly helping to erase some of the stigma around games and the specter of video-game addiction. “It’s incredible,” says Kowert. “They’re switching the narrative of moral panic.”
Video games, particularly the soothing ones, also offer safe spaces for marginalized people or those seeking solace in the simple joy of meeting someone new. They offer a possible way for us to show our digital selves, our personalities, without having to show our “real selves”—making connection less scary, both physically and emotionally.
For Imam, games are also a portal into what could have been. “I grew up during the 2008 recession and am about to graduate into an economic downturn,” she says. “Moving into a place in this alternate reality where I can control everything, from my basic survival to going where I want to meeting people—it’s kind of perfect.”
全球最大對沖基金橋水(Bridgewater)創辦人達里奧(Ray Dalio)認為,現時仍持有美國國庫券,或者打算長期持有國庫券的投資者「瘋了」,因為聯儲局已表明無限量地發行國庫券,以刺激經濟。
達里奧出席活動時表示,現時情況儼如上世紀三十年代至四十年代,只有「瘋子」才會持有美國國庫券,因為持有國庫券已沒有回報,甚至是負利率,而美國又準備大舉發鈔。
達里奧雖然不喜歡持有國庫券,但認同美國要遏力推動受新冠病毒疫情打擊的經濟,支持失去收入的國民。他估計,全球經濟有20萬億美元的缺口有待填補。
達里奧相信,與其他金融風暴一樣,今次疫市有贏家也有輸家,手頭現金充裕以及黃金持有者將成為贏家。