Member since 2017-07-15T03:50:57Z. Last seen 2024-09-15T12:48:52Z.
2670 blog posts. 127 comments.
Xom, $41.45, $39.22, 600, -$10736.-
Analysis:
Xom opened at $42 which is much higher than normal. It rises from $32 which accumulated much selling momentum
When dropping by 2%($40.621), it should have been stopped loss.
Should have divided into two buying lot, so I can dilute the price when dropping.
I should not be disturbed during trading. The environment should inspire me or give me a hint to act quickly ( response instinct ). Yesterday I haven’t done much correct action to response to market.
以為美股不會這麼快步入熊市,結果出乎意料,下跌速度遠超金融海嘯。標普500指數由2月19日的歷史高位3393點,最多挫35%,低見2191點。在3月15日至21日的一周,更出現避險資產美債和黃金也同步急跌,情況反常,只有美元上升,反映投資者恐慌性拋售,要錢不要貨。
現金為王,逆向思維,反而是長線買入機會。這不是說股市已見底,即使短期出現反彈,後市仍有機會再尋底。向來market timing不易,但相信有持貨能力的價值投資者已開始入市。投資組合持有現金的目的是買股票,當大家都恐慌時不買,要等到何時才出手呢?
愈恐慌時愈要買
投資市場上,人的貪婪和恐慌行為必然重複出現。過往經驗是愈驚愈要買,最重要的是預留足夠資金作生活費,不會被迫沽貨套現。同時要選擇一些資產負債表穩健的企業,也要分散投資,較簡單的做法是買地區的互惠基金或指數基金。知易行難,先定下投資策略,在哪個水平要買入多少,當巿場恐慌時自己也會受影響,所以執行力是很重要的一環。
巿場已出現極度恐慌的情緒,這可從VIX指數看到。回顧金融海嘯時,VIX第一次見85,大市隨即出現反彈,但投資者對後市仍沒信心,股市很快回落,直至VIX出現一浪低於一浪時,標指才見底,現時市場只關注壞消息,對大幅刺激經濟的財政和貨幣政策等好消息缺乏信心,情況有如雷曼倒閉時,股市已反映很壞的情況將出現。
別人恐慌時要貪婪,但也要懂得控制風險。對於長線投資者,現時可制定分段買入的計劃,投資部署先估算可能的跌幅和「捱位」的時間,再看估值是否吸引。參考2000年科網爆破和2008年金融海嘯的跌幅,分別是49%和57%,現在跌幅暫達35%,情況有點像金融海嘯,有可能下挫超過50%。至於在哪個水平買入,可借助技術分析,以標指從2009年開始的升浪計,如調整是黃金比率0.382倍、0.5倍和0.618倍,支持分別約在2350點、2030點和1700點。假設最終見1700點水平,可分3次在以上水平買入。
明年上半年或見底
至於見底時間,科網股災和金融海嘯時分別用了24個和17個月。這次疫情對經濟的打擊,相信要等有新疫苗或有治療藥物才可恢復。新疫苗研發成功一般需時18個月,股市走在經濟之前,樂觀地看,也要到明年上半年才見底。投資者想見到的是措施有效控制疫情,而不單是大灑金錢。如果歐美政府的隔離措施仿效中國,相信大約3個月時間疫情受控,股市可提早見底。
此外,聯儲局這次出手比金融海嘯時更快和更狠,配合2.2萬億美元的財政政策支援受影響的企業和僱員,加上「直升機撒錢」,有望加快經濟步出衰退。作這些推算不是想做market timing,而是管理預期,有心理準備要捱位的幅度和時間。
入市前先做好估算
至於估值,標指預測市盈率年初時是18倍,低位時跌至約14倍,低於10年平均值15倍和25年的16.3倍。金融海嘯期間,預測巿盈率曾挫至10.3倍,2000年也只有14.1倍。分析員預期,標指第一季盈利倒退5.2%,全年少賺1.2%。疫情令經濟停頓的時間難以估計,盈利有可能再下調,美股見底時的估值相信在14倍和10倍之間。
總括來說,大市短線嚴重超賣,已出現反彈,跌市莫估底,部署應從自己可承擔的風險能力和長線投資角度出發。有研究美股數據的單位指出,過去美股從高位下跌30%,如買入持有12個月,平均回報達14%。雖然預期中線仍有機會再跌,簡單策略是採取平均成本法,利用這個低潮收集,作長線投資。
pfanwong@yahoo.com
作者為認可財務策劃師,擁有逾10年的基金投資組合管理經驗。
If you use Apple iPhone or MacBook, here we have a piece of alarming news for you. Turns out merely visiting a website — not just malicious but also legitimate sites unknowingly loading malicious ads as well — using Safari browser could have let remote attackers secretly access your device's camera, microphone, or location, and in some cases, saved passwords as well. Apple recently paid a $75,000 bounty reward to an ethical hacker, Ryan Pickren, who practically demonstrated the hack and helped the company patch a total of seven new vulnerabilities before any real attacker could take advantage of them. The fixes were issued in a series of updates to Safari spanning versions 13.0.5 (released January 28, 2020) and Safari 13.1 (published March 24, 2020).
"If the malicious website wanted camera access, all it had to do was masquerade as a trusted video-conferencing website such as Skype or Zoom," Pickren said. When chained together, three of the reported Safari flaws could have allowed malicious sites to impersonate any legit site a victim trusts and access camera or microphone by abusing the permissions that were otherwise explicitly granted by the victim to the trusted domain only. An Exploit Chain to Abuse Safari's Per-Site Permissions Safari browser grants access to certain permissions such as camera, microphone, location, and more on a per-website basis. This makes it easy for individual websites, say Skype, to access the camera without asking for the user's permission every time the app is launched. But there are exceptions to this rule on iOS. While third-party apps must require user's explicit consent to access the camera, Safari can access the camera or the photo gallery without any permission prompts. Specifically, improper access is made possible by leveraging an exploit chain that stringed together multiple flaws in the way the browser parsed URL schemes and handled the security settings on a per-website basis. This method only works with websites that are currently open.
"A more important observation was that the URL's scheme is completely ignored," Pickren noted. "This is problematic because some schemes don't contain a meaningful hostname at all, such as file:, javascript:, or data:." Put another way, Safari failed to check if the websites adhered to the same-origin policy, thereby granting access to a different site that shouldn't have obtained permissions in the first place. As a result, a website such as "https://example.com" and its malicious counterpart "fake://example.com" could end up having the same permissions. Thus, by taking advantage of Safari's lazy hostname parsing, it was possible to use a "file:" URI (e.g., file:///path/to/file/index.html) to fool the browser into changing the domain name using JavaScript.
"Safari thinks we are on skype.com, and I can load some evil JavaScript. Camera, Microphone, and Screen Sharing are all compromised when you open my local HTML file," Pickren said. The research found that even plaintext passwords can be stolen this way as Safari uses the same approach to detect websites on which password auto-fill needs to be applied. Furthermore, auto-download preventions can be bypassed by first opening a trusted site as a pop-up, and subsequently using it to download a malicious file. Likewise, a "blob:" URI (e.g. blob://skype.com) can be exploited to run arbitrary JavaScript code, using it to directly access the victim's webcam without permission. In all, the research uncovered seven different zero-day vulnerabilities in Safari — CVE-2020-3852: A URL scheme may be incorrectly ignored when determining multimedia permission for a website CVE-2020-3864: A DOM object context may not have had a unique security origin CVE-2020-3865: A top-level DOM object context may have incorrectly been considered secure CVE-2020-3885: A file URL may be incorrectly processed CVE-2020-3887: A download's origin may be incorrectly associated CVE-2020-9784: A malicious iframe may use another website's download settings CVE-2020-9787: A URL scheme containing dash (-) and period (.) adjacent to each other is incorrectly ignored when determining multimedia permission for a website If you are a Safari user, it's recommended that you keep the browser up-to-date and ensure websites are granted access to only those settings which are essential for them to function. Have something to say about this article? Comment below or share it with us on Facebook, Twitter or our LinkedIn Group.
其次,過去十年科技股之大盛,主要是歸功於智能手機市場的急速發展。未來科技股的新一波動力將來自哪裏?智能手機未見有大突破,5G又處於初期發展階段,並且涉及到中國、美國及歐洲之間的政治角力,一般投資者未必容易看得清前景。不過,筆者相信部份中資科技股仍然值得留意。原因是自從中美爆發貿易戰及科技戰以來,中國政府已明白到不能再依靠外國輸入高科技的電子零件,而是必須加緊進行自家研發。在國家政策的扶持下,部份擁有高端技術及研發能力的企業,將有望取代外國的產品、大力開拓國內市場。
股市大跌,令股份與股份之間的估值差異已有所收窄,但筆者相信,在如此低增長的環境下,如果有一些板塊能持續帶來高增長,基於稀缺性溢價(Scarcity premium)的原因,仍然會被市場追捧,尤其是近年香港股市的性質已慢慢起了變化。
港股本來是個國際大戶主導的市場,隨着近年北水持續流入,已出現了「A股化」的迹象,由本來最重視股份的估值及基本面,變為多了關注短期趨勢及炒作概念,換言之,舊有的一套投資價值,或未必再合用。
鍾秀霞 安聯投資高級基金經理 本欄逢周四刊出
香港樓市已出現連續三個月下跌的現象,九龍塘一屋苑單位銀行估價3,700萬,賣家3,100萬收票,恍如回到沙士年代,我認為這是用家入市換樓的好時機。可是藉着買港樓而踏上成功階梯上流的時代過去了,以現時的樓價及辣招,買樓的都剩下用家及換樓客。
2017年我曾於此專欄提出「靠買樓上流之門已關」,一個時代的結束要正視,如再用舊方式來迎接新世代,結果一定落後於人。歐美日央行零利率大放水,現金只會越來越貶值,物價上漲,理論上資產也會受惠。
揸現金就是輸,但疫情令全球經濟不景氣,而且會以極慢速度回復,可能要兩三年,窮人忙於解決生計,購買力低下,我們進入了滯脹的時代,買資產才能保住財富。股市風高浪急高手如雲,一不小心就成為大鱷點心,好多投資者都只鍾情樓市,小弟以多年外地投資經驗,這經濟環境下,值得投資的房產需有以下幾個條件:
1)該國家發展潛力大,人力資源多,有多元發展產業的可能性,經濟有上升趨勢。
2)位置要供應少,需求大,最好有鄰近名校,重價值,不重價格。
3)樓價水平不超出年收入中位數13倍(香港為22倍)。
4)有持續的人口補充,包括外來人口及出生人口。
5)政策穩定,私有財產有安全的保障。
6)要自己實在研究,不要過於依賴展銷會。
這是本欄有關疫情的第八篇,有點欲罷不能,因為周圍都是不斷出現的新事物、新挑戰、新問題。情況變得很快,上周提出的一些問題,例如擔心學生不好好利用時間,擔心與學生失去聯絡,擔心完成不了教學進度,擔心家庭承擔不了,還有教師要兼顧學生與自己的子女……等等。這些問題,不能算都解決了,但是好像學校和教師都有了答案。特別是當知道復課無期,大家就不再是猶豫、掙扎,就當成是「半常規」。意思是有了心理準備:即使不理想,也要準備有一段時間長期堅持下去,盡量做得最好。
香港學校和教師這種適應疫情的態度和速度,不得不令人欽佩。不得不認為,這是香港教師專業精神的表現:沒有放棄,沒有抱怨,沒有等待,也沒有因為自身的利益而輸打贏要。專業精神的核心,是心中只有服務對象的利益,在教育界而言,也就是學生的福祉。這是難能可貴的,我們應該珍惜!
試想一想,要是沒有了學校和教師迎難而上的努力、加倍的時間與精神、陌生的科技與方法、不間斷的應變與改進、耐性溫情的網上交往、無私的交流互助,我們的學生將會是處於怎樣的一種情景?
收到美國一個全國性的教育NGO, Education First,找到一位有經驗的教育主管,回答各州各學區負責人的問題。
正如上周本欄提到的,他們關心的是語文、數學如何跟上進度。因為在那個文化裏面,讀、寫、算,就是學校教育的全部。我們香港教師考慮的,要複雜得多,我們生活在一個不同的文化。
在英國,學校全面停課,但是仍然容納少數有特殊需要或者是家長從事必要服務的孩子。90%的孩子,在家學習,但是家庭條件造成很大的困難。
停課復課 策略各異
再看看我們附近幾個社會。台灣:農曆新年假後,延了兩個星期,中小學2月25日開始全部復課。不過,假如有一名學生確診,整個班就要停課14天。假如一所學校有兩名學生確診,就全校要關閉14天。至今,只有台北有一所學校有學生確診,「北部某高中」(停課30日後復課)。大學,3月2日復課,同樣政策,至今,有三所大學受影響:中央(1人,隔離者)、成功(2人,隔離者)、清華(1人,確診,法籍);引致有關課程學生與教授需要隔離。因此,台灣的政策,是盡量盡快恢復正常。思路是力保不「失」。
新加坡,新加坡一直沒有停課。理由是學校停課,會對社會造成很大的騷擾,因此不會輕易決定。又認為,在家也可以受感染。3月末口風有點改變,說不排除停課作為抗疫的一個措施。最近決定4月1日開始,每周逢星期三實行在家學習(Home-based Learning),作為漸進式過渡到混合學習(blended-learning)。
也許新加坡採取的是可攻可守的彈性策略。若疫情更趨嚴峻,可以較快計入全面的在家學習;但若疫情轉緩,也可以常規性地實施減少在校學習的日子。那將是世界首創,不過這是筆者的猜想而已,以新加坡政府的智慧,權衡得失,如此設計一點都不出奇。
中國內地,目前大家最關心的,還是何時復課。現在大家的想法,是疫情「暫時」受控,爭取盡快復課。的確,學生關在家裏,已經兩個多月了;與香港一樣,這是疫情中目前全球停學最久的地方(當然,後來者也許將來更長)。現在看到的,目前內地31個省、市、自治區,21個已確定復課日期;其餘10個還未決定。人們對於復課之緊張,可於開課日期的謠傳可見,山東與廣東,都要由教育部確認當地政府的闢謠通告。
考試之餘 精采紛呈
人們為什麼緊張復課,其中一個關鍵的因素,是高考。高考,是全國民心所繫,也是千千萬萬學生的就學目標,復課才能應試。現在教育部宣布把高考延期一個月,發言人說:「2020年全國高考報名人數為1071萬,疫情發生後,各地延期開學並安排高三學生居家學習,學生複習備考普遍受到影響,特別是由於城鄉網絡學習條件等差異,部分農村和貧困地區學生的複習備考受到的影響更大。
高考延期舉行,可使考生有更多時間按教學計劃在校集中學習,從而最大限度保障教育公平。」可見復課背後的壓力。
因此,上述的復課,一般不是全體復課。除了青海與西藏,其他都是在首先上高三、然後是初三先復課,「錯峰錯時」(也就是不同年級、不同時間開課)。高三復課是為了「高考」,初三復課是為了「中考」。中國是考試的故鄉,自從公元603年隋朝設立科舉以來,考試就掌握着重小學生的命脈。即使在疫情之中,復課的考慮,高考是「重中之重」。
全國復課的次序,很可能是:高三、初三、中小學、幼稚園、研究生、本專科生;另外是先邊遠地區、邊遠省市,低疫情中部地區、省市,中疫情地區、省市,再是發達省市,最後是上海、北京、湖北。
話雖如此,即使在課程不變,學習迴旋空間不太大的條件下,還是有不少教師在「停課」的期間,找到改革的空檔。
前數天參加了北京海淀區教師進修學院的一個視頻會議。該學院是中國教師專業發展的一個典範單位,參加的有該學院的教師,以及與他們有聯繫的各省學校代表99人,整整3個小時。主題是:「如何用專題引導學生線上自主學習」。這裏說的「專題」,筆者的理解是綜合性地來看待學習的內容,而不是按學科的邏輯分拆成碎片。
聽到了一些運用在線(on-line)學習的特點,創造機會,改變學生的被動學習慣性。非常生動,都有實踐的案例。可見,在線學習,固然有「失」,也可以有「得」。
停課若「失」 在線可「得」
在內地學校實際的教學中,就筆者零拾所得,其實更加是百花齊放。前文引用過,有不少團體,提議、提供不少資源與可能性。讓孩子學一些平常學不到的東西,例如讓學生在家學做家務,讓孩子欣賞音樂名曲。
也有不少團體,提供免費的網上書籍和其他資源。一直在教育界相當活躍的一些巨型科技公司,也因此大展拳腳;但又不一定是商業行為。
在小學,就更加奔放。一土學校廣州校,一所辦了只有兩年多的民辦(私立)學校,教師們專為「居家學習」,想出許多活動,開闊學生的思路,如筆者經常提議的,讓學生製作、創作。例如小學低班,讓學生詳細了解日曆的每一個部分,然後自己製作一份本月的月曆;經過全班評論,再做改良的2.0版。又如讓學生用手影自編故事,向全班演示影子戲。這裏面的思路,就超越了趕進度,而是趁這個機會,引入許多平常學不到的東西。
類似的例子,在香港也很多很多,這裏無法一一介紹。因為香港的「校本」文化,教師的創意可以說是沒有邊界,在小學尤其如此。這些活動,實際上發掘了學生學習的主動性,也探索了讓學生進入自主學習的種種門路。門一打開,就關不上了。
上述的視頻會議,有雲南代表提出,在線學習,提示我們不要求多,不要求大,要突出重點。這與香港一位老師所提出的,教育也要「斷、捨、離」,是同一個思路。一節課,40分鐘,壓縮成為15至20分鐘,在線上已經是司空見慣。是 「失掉」了時間?還是「賺得」了時間?
上述海淀區的學院院長,早前傳過來一份ppt,很有前瞻,設想疫情過後,雖然會回到課堂授課,但一定是混合教育為主流。因此,除了要彌補停課的「失」,還需要探索與總結,疫情之下在線學習有何「得」?
Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning
Students will learn the language by ordering food or haggling with street vendors on a virtual Beijing street. by Karen Hao Jul 16, 2019 An image of students standing in the immersive virtual environment RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE
Often the best way to learn a language is to immerse yourself in an environment where people speak it. The constant exposure, along with the pressure to communicate, helps you swiftly pick up and practice new vocabulary. But not everyone gets the opportunity to live or study abroad.
In a new collaboration with IBM Research, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), a university based in Troy, New York, now offers its students studying Chinese another option: a 360-degree virtual environment that teleports them to the busy streets of Beijing or a crowded Chinese restaurant. Students get to haggle with street vendors or order food, and the environment is equipped with different AI capabilities to respond to them in real time. While the classroom is largely experimental, it is being used for the first time in a six-week, for-credit course at the university this summer.
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Subscribe today The project was inspired by two RPI faculty members who often used role-playing games to help their students learn Chinese. In parallel, over the last few years, several studies have found that interactive learning environments can increase language understanding and retention. One study published in 2018 also found that learning Japanese in a 3D virtual environment made students likelier to pick up vocabulary that they encountered incidentally through the simulation. On the basis of these ideas, the professors struck a collaboration with IBM Research to explore whether they could replicate such benefits for their own students.
In addition to surrounding the students with digital projections of a scene, the environment uses several types of sensors to dynamically adapt to the students’ words and actions. Microphones, worn by the participants, feed their audio directly into speech-recognition algorithms. Cameras track their movements and gestures to register when they point to various objects or walk up to different virtual agents. If a student points to a food dish in the restaurant scene and asks what it is, for example, a virtual agent can respond with the name and description. Narrative-generation technology also allows each agent to construct more sophisticated answers to off-the-cuff questions (“What’s the dish’s history?”) using knowledge from Wikipedia. (The conversation topics are still somewhat constrained, however, to whatever task the student is trying to complete.)
An image of students pointing at objects in the environment. Cameras and sensors track the students' gestures so they can freely point at objects in a scene to engage. RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE Many of the technologies in the environment are commercially available products that were woven together into a cohesive experience. But a few had to be developed for the project specifically. Mandarin Chinese has five tones, for example, that are challenging for many new learners but crucial to conveying meaning. Say the word “sell” (卖 mài) a little bit off and you could end up saying “buy” (买 mǎi) instead. So the researchers created an algorithm to analyze the tones in the students’ pronunciation. It compares them with those of native speakers and shows where they differ, and then provides audio and visual feedback directly in the environment. It allows students to ask a virtual agent how to say something and immediately start practicing the new vocabulary.
Hui Su, the director of the Cognitive and Immersive Systems Laboratory, the collaboration between IBM Research and RPI that led the initiative, says his team is still in the early stages of understanding how effective it is. But in a pilot at the end of 2017, the researchers found qualitatively that it increased the students’ engagement and enjoyment in language learning, and helped them to quickly acquire new words.
Prior to a restaurant-ordering exercise, for example, the students were not taught how to pay for their food, but through observing their peers and conversing with the virtual agents, many picked up the necessary vocabulary to do so. “It was a bit of a surprise,” says Su. “One of the students commented that this should be the way to teach language,” he adds.
An algorithm gives students visual feedback on their tone pronunciation. RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE In the first year, the new course will use the virtual environment nearly half the time and a traditional classroom the rest, although this arrangement might change in the future.
If the class provides strong evidence of improving student learning outcomes, it could serve as a model for others. The most obvious idea would be to extend it to other languages. But it could also be used beyond universities to coach executives, train government staff, or conduct any other preparation activities that might benefit from scenario simulation and role play.
Ultimately the initiative will aid the researchers’ longer-term mission to understand how cognitive and immersive environments can affect learning, collaboration, and sense-making, says Su.
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Stan Claketon
香港樓價之所以咁貴,原因有好多,但最主要係因為地價貴! 香港地價之所以咁貴,因為港共政府要維持高地價政策! 點解港共政府要維持高地價政策?因為要保證政府每年有足夠嘅稅收!
點解要保證政府有足夠嘅稅收? 提供教育、醫療、社會福利、社會服務、呢啲其實都係廢話…… 真正原因係,每年香港6000億稅收之中,大約有90%要用作政府日常開支;換句話講,直白啲講,香港人之所以要捱貴樓同納稅;就係要嚟養人工全球數一數二高嘅港共政府內各級垃圾狗官。
咁香港嘅政府高官人工有幾高呢?我求其試舉一啲例子,大家可以以此類推……
【香港人嘅血汗錢,就係用嚟養呢班垃圾高级公務員同佢哋嘅家人!】
首先,大家必須要知道,香港垃圾公務員嘅人工及福利絕對係大幅領先全世界任何國家和地區;絕對係數一數二高嘅。若將附加福利計算在內,香港一眾公務員〈尤其是月薪八萬以上嗰啲〉跟其他文明地區嘅公務員薪俸差距更加驚人。
※一個唔識買廁紙;唔識用八達通嘅香港特首月薪約45萬 ※美國總統月薪約24萬 ※德國總理月薪約18萬 ※英國首相月薪約14萬 ※日本首相月薪約13萬 ※法國總統約12萬 ※台灣總統約11萬
以2010年資料,金管局頭三層總裁的薪酬都分別冠絕全球,單是總裁已獨攬1190多萬元年薪及其他福利,較美國聯邦儲備局理事會主席高出7倍,副總裁、助理總裁的薪酬同樣遠較海外同級人員優厚。若以英國英倫銀行行長為例,年薪+福利僅為417多萬港元,德國德意志聯邦銀行行長總年薪亦只有430多萬元,換言之,金管局總裁的薪酬幾乎高出他們兩倍。
除金管局總裁,其副手的薪酬亦較他同類職級偏高,金管局三名副總裁年薪各逾700萬元,十三名助理總裁總年薪亦達420多萬元;反觀美國聯儲局理事會副主席總年薪僅得130多萬元,歐洲中央銀行副行長總年薪亦只有450多萬元。
再舉一個例子~ 【2017年國際名牌大學與香港濕鳩大學校長年薪比較】(網上資料)
英國牛津大學約346萬 英國劍橋大學約294萬 美國哈佛大學約650萬 香港理工大學約840萬 香港大學約690萬 香港科技大學約675萬 香港中文大學約630萬 香港城市大學約660萬 香港浸會大學約730萬 香港嶺南大學約450萬
睇完呢個薪酬表之後,我就有幾個好強烈嘅疑問,點解香港嘅大學校長薪酬會高得咁緊要,咁值錢?唔通香港呢幾間大學嘅學術水平比人哋呢啲國際一流名牌大學更加高?還是香港嘅大學更難管理?還是香港呢幾間大學對地球人類社會特別有貢獻?還是有其他不可告人嘅原因?……
香港只係一個鼻屎咁大嘅城市,人口只係幾百萬,但做市長嘅薪俸居然高過全部發達國家嘅領袖。看到了吧,之所以點解香港政府一路都好強調一定要發展經濟?道理其實就係好簡單,因為經濟發展,百業興盛政府就可以保證可以收多啲稅,政府收多啲税,就保證到香港嘅呢班垃圾公務員同埋香港嘅狗官可以繼續刮到全世界最高嘅收入! 啲狗官開口埋口話要發展香港嘅經濟,你以為嗰啲狗官係為咗嗰啲同佢三唔識七嘅市民呀?其實係為咗保證佢自己可以薪高糧準福利好咋!
再舉多一個例子~ 紐約,世界經濟之都,人口2100萬,GDP26000億美元;係香港58倍。市政府內;市長連司局级首長才只有6人。東京,人口1500萬,GDP11000億美元;係香港25倍。市政府內;市長連司局级首長只有7人。香港,人口750萬,GDP449億美元,人口是東京的二分之一、紐約的三分之一,但市政府內;市長連司局级首長居然係15人。
以前港英管治嘅時代,呢種做法美其名係叫做「高薪養廉」,希望用高到唔合理嘅薪水同福利嚟令呢班人唔好貪污,乖乖地服務香港。但是97共產黨佔領香港之後,為咗收買呢班食屎狗,令佢哋聽教聽話,呢個不合理嘅制度就演變成用香港納稅人嘅血汗錢嚟『高薪養庸』。我哋啲納稅人真係睇見都眼火爆!
港英管治嘅時代,啲公務員就算幾蠢都好,就算唔做嘢又或者做錯嘢,只要你唔貪贓;只要你唔枉法,都絕對能夠保證薪高糧準;平平安安做到退休,攞埋福利攞埋長俸。 雖然我哋升斗市民係唔甘心,但整體公務員嘅表現都叫做不過不失,叫做可以收貨,咁我哋普羅市民大眾都算撚數啦!
但自從進入特衰政府時代,政府就極速變質,官銜高级但人格同能力都低级嘅狗官及公務員團隊,除咗一貫嘅蠢同懶之外;以權謀私又得,貪贓枉法又得,貪污舞弊又得,知法犯法都完全冇事。咁就已經係到了破壞社會發展,破壞社會價值,擾亂社會安寧嘅地步。
我敬告所有香港納稅人,如果你哋咁都仲可以唔出聲,再繼續任由呢班班垃圾公務員騎在自己頭上都唔反抗,就唔好怪人笑你全身都係奴隸DNA,如果你係真香港人,又冇本事移民,又唔想舔共求存,你一定要起來反抗,否則你嘅下一代真係屎都冇得食! 讚好 · 回覆 · 標示為垃圾訊息 · 10 · 3小時
Chiuwah Sham 仲有一樣令一般人好難過生活。好多人捱幾十年供佐一層樓諗住老來不用訓街,但政府年年加差餉,幾難負擔,舊樓又要被無良法團聯同黒社會要大家負擔天價維修,一班長者業主已無收入,又唔夠資格拎綜緩,日子實在艱難。
Apr. 01, 2020 10:53 AM ETDDM, DIA, DOG...1 Comment3 Likes Summary
The Federal Reserve and other Central Banks have been rapidly expanding their balance sheets. Is inflation a major near-term concern? The actions of the Federal Reserve are unlikely to help the real economy and can actually perpetuate more disinflation/deflation. Cash, Treasury bonds, and gold remain the most appropriate overweight allocations relative to a risk-balanced portfolio given the current set of data. A large position in Treasury bonds allowed for a positive portfolio return in the month of March in the face of a massive market decline. The most recent update of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed an explosion higher to a level just north of $5.25 trillion. As the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks engage in aggressive monetary policy to smooth market volatility, common inflation concerns have reemerged, similar to the past decade.
Each time the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks engage in aggressive asset purchase programs, fears of inflation or a collapse of the dollar rightfully surface.
Over the past 10 years, Central Banks have expanded their balance sheets, and the US dollar has maintained its strength, the rate of inflation has continued to march lower, and sovereign bond yields fell to new all-time lows.
Inflation and a loss of confidence in the US dollar always is a possibility. However, after careful analysis, it remains likely that deflation or disinflation is the more immediate concern, despite the aggressive actions from both the Federal Government and Central Bank.
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet:
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
When the Federal Reserve expands the balance sheet through asset purchases, primarily US Treasury securities, Mortgage-backed securities "MBS" and newly added commercial mortgage-backed securities "CMBS," the Fed increases the excess reserves of primary dealers to pay for securities.
These actions increase the monetary base and may influence the money supply, but the increase in the monetary base does not always translate to an equal increase in the money supply.
The monetary base includes currency in circulation and excess reserves, which is why when the Federal Reserve buys assets, the monetary base increases. This alone, however, is not inflationary because the monetary base needs to be "converted" into the money supply. If the Federal Reserve increases the monetary base significantly, but that money never reaches the public, inflation is not a concern.
Monetary Base:
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
The rate at which the monetary base is converted into the money supply is called the money multiplier, or "little m," which we can easily derive by dividing the M2 money supply by the monetary base.
The Federal Reserve does not have full control over the money multiplier as many of the factors remain less than fully understood.
Nonetheless, the money multiplier or the rate at which the monetary base is converted into the money supply has been falling rapidly over the past several decades, with the most significant decline coming after the 2008 banking crisis.
If the money multiplier continues to fall, expanding the monetary base through asset purchase programs will not necessarily translate to an increase in money supply growth or inflation.
Money Multiplier:
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
Despite aggressive "money printing" or "reserve creation" over the past several years, the money supply never grew much above the long-term historical average, solidifying the idea that increasing the monetary base in isolation is not necessarily inflationary.
The two-year annualized rate of change in money supply growth this economic cycle has been nearly exactly the same as prior decades and today's rate of increase is not much different either.
Money Supply Growth (%):
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
Even if the rate of money supply growth started to increase well above the historical average, an inflationary spiral is not guaranteed. Money times (*) velocity is equal to aggregate output or nominal GDP.
This comes from the equation of exchange which states:
MV = PQ
In classic economic textbooks, velocity "V" always is held constant, and thus, an increase in money supply growth automatically translates to an increase in price growth. Many analysts continue to hold velocity constant or ignore this variable in their analysis altogether.
In reality, demonstrated below, we know that velocity is not constant - at all.
Many factors contribute to the velocity of money or the rate at which money is exchanged in an economy, not all of which are fully understood either. One main factor we do understand is that the velocity of money tends to decline sharply in highly-indebted economies.
As the public and private debt levels increase, income is diverted to repay debt rather than higher velocity uses of capital.
Thus, even if the rate of money growth started to increase above the historical average, an inflationary spiral will not take hold if the velocity of money continues to crash.
Velocity Of Money:
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
The current humanitarian crisis around the world will lead to a massive increase in both public and private debt. While necessary, the type of debt that will be assumed is not for plant and equipment or for productive uses that will generate a future income stream.
Unfortunately, as the world recovers, economies will emerge significantly more indebted, and thus, the velocity of money is not only likely to fall, but rather accelerate to the downside.
A continuous decline in the velocity of money renders monetary policy virtually ineffective as rapid increases in the monetary base need to translate to the money supply and then will be offset (likely) by a continued collapse in the velocity of money.
High Levels of Debt Reduce The Velocity of Money:
Source: Hoisington
The Federal Reserve has expanded its asset purchases to far more assets than just Treasuries, MBS, and CMBS, which has caused concern.
Under the current Federal Reserve Act, the Fed cannot purchase corporate bonds in the same fashion that they conduct purchases of government-backed securities.
To circumvent this, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury set up Special Purpose Vehicles or "SPV" to purchase assets through the SPV.
The equity investment in the SPV comes from the Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund "ESF" so that the Federal Reserve does not absorb losses.
Continuously funding SPV from the ESF is another form of increased debt as the Treasury obtains funds from tax receipts or issuing more Treasury securities.
QE vs. SPV:
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
Typically, an inflationary spiral will be identified in several areas that we can track below. A tight labor market can generate wage pressure. Rising commodity prices also are a signal of inflation. The strength of the US dollar and the government bond market, through breakeven rates, also can signal inflationary pressure or a loss of confidence in the value of the US dollar.
The labor market is clearly not a primary inflationary concern at this point, with millions of Americans losing jobs.
Initial Jobless Claims:
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
The CRB Index of raw industrial commodities, outlined below, shows significant disinflationary pressure as this basket of industrial materials sinks to nearly the lowest level of this economic cycle.
CRB Raw Industrials Index:
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
If we flip over to commodities that are easier to speculate on, proxied via the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index, we can see a similar decline in prices - another disinflationary signal.
Bloomberg Industrials Metals Subindex:
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
The US dollar remains extremely strong, although the aggressive use of USD Swap Lines with other Central Banks has alleviated the major funding pressure, leading to a decline in the value of the USD.
Still, relative to this economic cycle, the USD remains quite strong.
US Dollar:
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
The US government bond market, despite substantial Central Bank intervention, remains one of the best market signals with regard to forecasting growth and inflation trends.
While breakeven rates may rise, and we'd take careful note of such a development, long-run inflation expectations have cratered to the lowest level of this economic cycle before popping slightly higher.
US 5Y5Y Forward Breakeven Rate (%):
Source: Bloomberg, EPB Macro Research
Inflation is always a possibility, and aggressive intervention in markets is always uncomfortable. Studying the facts, however, shows that disinflation or deflation remains a more immediate concern.
Through our process, we will continue to monitor all the potential channels by which an inflation spiral can emerge.
The biggest concern with regard to inflation is a change in the Federal Reserve Act, allowing the Fed to "create" money and drop it directly into the money supply. This is currently prohibited.
There are not many analysts who suggest the Federal Reserve will not be expanding the monetary base rapidly in the coming years. This was well understood even before the current crisis. Conflating an increase in the monetary base with guaranteed inflation has been a critical mistake that has resulted in many investors missing virtually the greatest rally in long-term Treasury bonds in history.
Commodities hedge inflation most strongly, while gold is more of a direct bet on the inverse direction of real interest rates.
As economies become more indebted, real interest rates must grind lower which will result in gold continuing to rise over time as it has throughout history.
This analysis has allowed EPB Macro Research to hold an overweight position in Treasury bonds for the past several years, resulting in positive performance for the month of March and a higher annualized return than the S&P 500 over the past three years.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Mar. 31, 2020 12:12 PM ETMicrosoft Corporation (MSFT)14 Comments5 Likes Summary
Microsoft renamed the consumer as well as the small and medium business versions of Office 365 to Microsoft 365 - changes that will occur on April 21. The new brand reflects how the set of applications that make up the company's popular subscription-based offering is evolving. It also reflects how the company itself is changing and highlights how Microsoft has managed to continue adjusting its strategies to match the changing needs of the market and its customers. If there's one piece of software that has held up remarkably well over several decades, it's Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Office suite of productivity apps. From business to personal life, the applications in Office have proven their value time and time again to people all over the world. Perhaps because of that, Microsoft has used Office as a means to push forward the definition of what software is, how it should be delivered, how it should be sold, what platforms it should run on, and much more over the last decade or so.
In June of 2011, for example, the company officially unveiled Office 365, which provided access to all the same applications in the regular suite but in a subscription-like "service" form that was delivered (and updated) via the internet. Since then, the company has added new features and functions to the service, made it available to mobile platforms such as Android and iOS, in addition to Windows and MacOS, and generally used it as a means to expand how people think about applications they use on a regular basis. In the process, Microsoft has made many people comfortable with the idea of cloud-based software becoming a cloud-based service.
Yesterday, the company took the next step in the evolution of the product and renamed the consumer, as well as the small and medium business versions of Office 365 to Microsoft 365-changes that will all occur on April 21. The name change is obviously a subtle one, but beyond the title, the changes run much deeper. Specifically, the new brand reflects how the set of applications that make up the company's popular subscription-based offering is evolving. It also reflects how the company itself is changing.
In the case of the SMB versions of Microsoft 365, the name change is simply a branding one, which better reflects that the service includes more than just basic office productivity, particularly with the Teams collaboration tools and service. For the new consumer-oriented Personal and Family versions of Microsoft 365, the changes are more extensive.
Notably, the consumer versions of Microsoft 365 include the addition of several new applications, a number of AI-powered intelligent enhancements to existing applications and-in an important first for Microsoft-some mobile-first advancements. The new version of the Microsoft Editor function works across Word, Outlook.com, and the web, and is essentially a Grammarly competitor that moves beyond simple spell and grammar checking to making AI-powered rewriting suggestions, avoiding plagiarism and more.
The AI-based Designer feature in PowerPoint-which I have found to be incredibly useful-has been enhanced in this latest version of Microsoft 365 to support a wider array of content that it can "beautify" and includes support for a greatly expanded library of supplementary graphics, videos, fonts and templates.
The biggest change to Excel is the forthcoming addition of Money for Excel, an add-in that gives it Quicken-like money and account management features. In addition, working in conjunction with Wolfram Alpha, Microsoft is adding in support for over 100 new "smart" data types that makes it significantly easier to track everything from calories to travel locations and more. In essence, it provides the type of intelligence that people may have expected computing devices and applications to have all along.
The addition of both Teams (for Consumers) and Family Safety are interesting because of the capabilities they bring to the service and because both will launch first on mobile OSes-Android and iOS. Microsoft has had mobile versions of its main productivity suite apps, as well as its One Drive storage service for a while now, but this Microsoft 365 launch marks the first time the company will debut new apps in mobile form. On the one hand, the move is logical and not terribly surprising given how much people use their mobile devices today-particularly for communications and tracking, which are the core functions of Teams and Family Safety respectively. Nevertheless, it's still noteworthy, because it does show how Microsoft has been able to pivot on its typical "deliver on PC first" strategy and keep itself as relevant as possible.
In the case of Teams, the company isn't replicating its Enterprise version, but instead has developed a consumer-focused edition that allows for real-time chats, document sharing, creating and tracking lists, and more in a manner that should make sense for most consumers. Family Safety is completely new and allows parents to provide limits and controls on digital device usage and content, as well as track the physical location and even driving of other family members. Importantly, Microsoft made the point to say that it's doing all these things without sharing (or certainly not selling) any of this information to auto insurance companies, advertisers or any other companies. While the company would have undoubtedly created a bit of an outcry if it did any of that, it was still reassuring to hear a big tech vendor emphasize these privacy and security-focused concerns. Let's hope all major tech vendors follow suit.
Speaking of privacy and security, Microsoft took the opportunity with its Microsoft 365 launch announcement to also unveil the latest version of Microsoft Edge, the company's significantly improved browser. In addition to several convenience-based features, such as the addition of vertical tabs, smart copying from web pages, and the ability to easily create portable "collections" of content from web-based sources, the company debuted some important privacy features as well. Password Monitor, for example, can automatically track whether any of your logins are available on the dark web and encourage you to change your passwords on sites where that may have occurred.
Given the huge number of security breaches and data exposure that have impacted almost all of us at this point, this could prove to be an incredibly valuable new feature. In addition, the company added refined tracking controls that allows you to set the amount information you are willing to share with other websites as a result of your browsing sessions.
All told, it was a pretty impressive set of announcements that highlights how Microsoft has managed to continue adjusting its strategies to match the changing needs of the market and its customers. Of course, many consumers will still be content using the free versions of the basic Office applications and services that Microsoft will continue to make available even after April 21. However, the functionality that the company has built into its new Microsoft 365 Personal and Family offerings will be compelling enough for many to make the switch, and the success that the Office suite of applications has enjoyed for so long will continue with the new Microsoft 365.
Disclaimer: Some of the author's clients are vendors in the tech industry
Disclosure: None.
Original Post
筆者上周寫過〈科網股難「免疫」〉一文,指疫情令全球消費急劇萎縮,即使外賣App等看似能夠受惠的生意,也難獨善其身。果不其然,「中國最大外賣仔」美團(03690)昨公布業績,儘管去年扭虧為盈,卻預告今年首季再陷虧損。實際上,「外賣仔」只是美團表面身份,該業務基本上「白做」,但憑此吸納4.5億忠誠用戶,晉身超級程式(Super App),接着向他們提供酒店和旅遊等預訂服務,這才是最大利潤來源;而在疫情下,酒店和旅遊首當其衝,導致美團收入重創,送幾多外賣也補不回來。
送餐業務基本「白做」
請先看【附表】,美團有三大業務板塊,去年第四季整體營業額282億元(人民幣.下同),「餐飲外賣」(簡稱外賣)、「到店、酒店及旅遊」(簡稱到店)、「新業務及其他」(簡稱新業務)各佔157億、64億、61億元;表面看來,外賣無疑是最主力生意。
然而,外賣業務利潤極微薄,毛利率僅17.7%, 毛利額只有28億元。相反,到店業務的毛利率高達88.8%,雖然收入僅64億元,貢獻毛利額卻達56億元,恰好為外賣業務的雙倍。
稍為解釋一下什麼是「到店」業務,此詞屬中國內地原創,英文勉強可譯作To Store,顧名思義,是相對於外賣業務的To Home,即並非由專人把產品或服務送到客戶家中,而是客戶自己移玉步,前往接受服務。
或曰,客戶自己前往接受服務,這不就是幾千年來的傳統消費模式,有啥特別?特別在於,美團App提供海量預訂選擇、「至抵價」等折扣優惠,以及tailor-made額外服務選項。除了例牌的酒店和機票預訂,美團還開創「付款預訂餐廳」模式,跟大批網紅店、星級餐廳合作,食客只須付出一定服務費溢價,或者承諾消費額、購買特定套餐,便可預訂任何時段餐桌,毋須「打爆電話」或排長龍輪候,且可享有「美團VIP」尊貴服務,例如送多個甜品,侍應特別有禮,獲安排坐廂房或卡位等等。
此一「付款預訂」模式,還適用於美容、修甲、健身、卡拉OK、獸醫、心理諮詢、景區遊覽……可說把「用錢解決煩惱」這種資本主義精神發揮到極致。例如其中一類最熱門選項,是在預訂動物園門票時多付約20元,入場後便可獲准跟動物親密互動,名額有限。試想像,兩對情侶分別去動物園,其中一對由於男友細心預訂了互動選項,其女友可跟樹熊玩耍合照;另一對情侶卻只能在欄外觀看,該男友恐怕會被女友踢進獅子園。
酒店機票預訂搵真銀
作為比較,外賣業務要由「外賣仔」辛辛苦苦揸電單車去送餐,每張單通常一百幾十元,可想而知不會有什麼豐厚利潤,實屬血汗錢。反觀上述到店業務,由客戶自己移步去酒店、餐廳、美容院、動物園,美團只須扮演「雲端中介」便可收錢,毫無額外成本,堪稱躺着也賺錢,所以該業務毛利率高達88.8%,成為美團最主要利潤金雞。
簡單來說,美團憑着優質、辛苦、但基本上不賺錢的送外賣業務,獲取4.5億高頻用戶,他們頻密用美團App叫外賣,整體上深感滿意,很容易用上癮,對美團的信任度、忠誠度逐漸提高,然後覺得該App提供的酒店、機票、餐廳等預訂服務也會有同樣高質素,自然傾向願意試用。同時,透過各類服務之間大數據crossover,美團也將更全面捕捉每一客戶消費形態,從而提供更精準服務。
這正是國際科網業界近年受關注的超級程式(Super App)模式,即一個App裏面包羅萬有,自成生態系統,靠一兩項優質、超值的服務(例如送外賣)吸引大量用戶,再憑其他服務(到店預訂)賺錢。從騰訊(00700)的微信、阿里(09988)的支付寶,以至香港電視(01137),都在朝Super App方向探索,而美團堪稱暫時的成功例子之一。
可惜,疫情令酒店、旅遊、餐飲堂食、實體服務等行業深陷蕭條,導致美團賴以賺錢的到店業務遭受重創。由於到店業務的毛利率跟外賣業務差天共地,哪管美團趁疫情送多了外賣,也很難填補到店業務收入暴跌,所以管理層預告今年首季將再現虧損。當然,做生意看長遠,美團若趁疫情期間添加外賣服務,進一步擴闊忠誠客戶基礎,待危機過後,很有機會迎來更強勁的反彈。
(編者按:高天佑著作《中產必須死》現已發售)
歡迎訂購:實體書、電子書
經過全球央行無限量放水後,美股標普上周一在2191點摸底,比起2月當時仲响新高的3393點,足足暴跌35.4%,之後美股急速反彈,到上周四最高彈到2637,貼近黃金比率反彈0.382水平(現處2650點),周五再度下插3.4%,最終收2541點,埋單全周仍勁彈一成。
全球確診新冠肺炎數字人數升得誇張,感覺上市場開始對數字麻木,原因是檢測人數上升,變相令事件陽光化,加上新冠肺炎由過往令市場絶望,現轉至非絕症看待,尤其是治療瘧疾的chloroquine和hydroxychloroquine、以至吉利德新藥瑞德西韋(remdesivir)及富士的法匹拉韋(Avigan)等等,已看到有助治療新冠肺炎,只要呼吸機可大量生產,明顯見到抗疫曙光,加上央行出力托市,股市有望喘穩。
按黃金比率量度,標指暫時受制2650點,短期2500點有支持,反彈上望黃金比率0.5倍,即2792點(圖一)。
賭華府救波音博股價升兩成
就以波音為例,筆者上周二低位透過槓桿軍工ETF低撈,原因是波音仍美國國寶,又喺美國大到不能倒的企業,從作為一間美國主要軍工企業角度出發,萬一波音倒閉,美國大部分戰鬥機以至波音生產的民航機,將因無零件更換勢必停飛,屆時都咪話唔閉翳!
再者,波音債息亦開始回落,原因是聯儲局購入BBB級別的債券,在圖一看到,仍屬BBB級別的波音,其2030年到期的債息下跌,也是股價摸底之時,雖然上周五也跟大市回落,但筆者認為,波音大到不能倒,加上聯儲局掃債,一旦波音股價回落到160樓下可以博博,目標睇200美元,穿145美元止蝕。
Zoom被市場神化
一場新冠肺炎,令視像通訊軟件商Zoom(ZM)爆紅,不單小學雞,連家長到投資者無人不讚,甚有哥倫布發現新大陸的感覺,本欄與Zoom識於微時,在2月4日《信報》專欄政觀其辯中叫大家今年「趁價殘跟超級大鱷撈Zoom」,當日Zoom收市只是85.79美元,以上周五151.7美元收市計,累升足足76.8%,遠遠跑贏標指表現(同期大跌22.9%)。
不過,全球視像通訊軟件不單只得Zoom,最近筆者參加多個內地公司的發布會,國內公司大多數用一個叫路演中的軟件,包括碧桂園系、陌陌、安螺水泥(00914)、李寧(02331)、甚至是NIKE,同時騰訊(00700)、微軟等等也有相類似軟件登場。
Zoom雖然是近期的逆市奇葩,但投資者「神化」下,若有跟筆者由低位揸上來,回報已冠絶其他股份,喺時候落車,情況就如當日維珍銀河(SPCE)(可參考最鋒利嘅刀似近生銹),正所謂有糊唔食,罪大惡極!
編按:作者尹德政(Ricky),醉心投資美股近十載,最大滿足感來自尋找抵買有實力的世界行業領袖,每逢周一、三在「信報網站」及「港股360」撰文。
rickywan@hkej.com