英國買樓 我能貸幾多款?
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英國工作:貸款金額一般是工資的4倍-5倍。
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海外買家:通常貸款額度在50%-70%,年利息3%左右,年限到70歲。需要先知道收入情況,銀行和第三方公司會進行評估,每個人情況不同,能貸的額度也不同。
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Buy to let:要求最低工資25000英鎊,租金必須高於還貸金額,都需要銀行來做評估。
仲有疑問?歡迎係comment度留低你嘅問題😊
Member since 2017-07-15T03:50:57Z. Last seen 2024-09-15T12:48:52Z.
2670 blog posts. 127 comments.
英國工作:貸款金額一般是工資的4倍-5倍。
海外買家:通常貸款額度在50%-70%,年利息3%左右,年限到70歲。需要先知道收入情況,銀行和第三方公司會進行評估,每個人情況不同,能貸的額度也不同。
Buy to let:要求最低工資25000英鎊,租金必須高於還貸金額,都需要銀行來做評估。
仲有疑問?歡迎係comment度留低你嘅問題😊
https://www.591.com.tw/help-fkbook.html
移民來台灣,不論是工作、投資、讀書或創業,相信許多香港朋友來台後的第一件事,都是必須先找到自己的小窩。
雖然租房是大多人生活中熟悉的經驗,但台灣與香港在租房的習慣上還是有許多不同,Promiseeasy和大家分享,讓大家先多了解一些細節,可以讓自己在台灣安身的過程更順利。
跟世界各地一樣,台灣的房屋仲介公司也是百家齊放,初來乍到台灣想找個房子,可能會被像是永慶房屋、信義房屋、台灣房屋……等仲介商所架設的租屋網站弄得眼花撩亂。但其實台灣人最常用,也是房屋數量最大的網站,是香港朋友應該也聽過的「591房屋交易」,網站上不僅有不少上述那些房屋仲介放上去的房屋資訊,也有許多不委託仲介代租,而自行刊登租屋資訊的房東,所以從效率來說,直接上591找房子是最方便的。
雖然香港同樣也有「591房屋交易」,網站操作對香港朋友來說應該不至於太陌生,但不同的用詞可能還是會讓許多人一開始感到一頭霧水,務必先搞懂,才不會找錯房:
雅房
型態很接近香港的板間房/劏房,特點就是要與其他室友共用廁所與浴室,且空間大多比較小,不過當然也因此價錢是眾多房型中最低廉的一種。
套房
就是房間內有獨立的廁所浴室,且大部分都會有基本的家具,像是床、冷氣、冰箱、電視、書桌椅、衣櫃……等等,通常租屋網上會列出房間有提供的內容。
樓中樓
指一個房間裡分成兩層樓,有內部的樓梯。
公寓
類似香港的「唐樓」,大都是6層樓以下,比較舊一點的大樓,通常沒有管理員與電梯。
電梯大樓
比公寓新穎,樓層也較多,且大多有電梯與管理員,有些電梯大樓還附設垃圾場(也就是香港俗稱的「垃圾房」),也因此大多會收取額外的管理費,如果預算有限的香港朋友需要多考慮一下。
另外香港的房屋面積是用「呎」(平方英尺)作為單位,但台灣的通用單位則是「坪」,而一坪大概是35.6呎,因此香港朋友在看屋前先了解單位間的換算比例,會對房間的大小比較有概念。
雖然台灣的步調較慢,居住面積也較香港大,因此生活環境整體來說相對香港一定舒適許多,但因為光是香港人習慣落腳的城市就有台北、台中、台南、高雄……等6個城市,每個城市的環境與生活習慣都有不同,所以租屋時一定要注重以下細節:
先了解住房周遭的「生活機能」
「生活機能」指的就是住屋附近的各種生活條件,例如附近有沒有市場、便利商店、醫院診所、公園、學校、銀行,以及火車站、捷運站、公車站……等交通設施。
因為如果你還沒有駕照與個人交通工具的話,房屋周遭是否具備不需搭大眾交通工具,就能快速滿足生活所需的各種機能設施,或與這些設施間是否有能輕鬆抵達的捷運或公車,就變得非常重要。(尤其一些還尚未有捷運的城市)
晚上再多去看一次房
因為台灣許多城市的面積比香港大上不少,環境也不像香港那麼擁擠,因此有許多地方其實比想像中空曠與偏遠,也是從租屋網站上的照片甚至白天現場看房時都未必能看出來的,因此建議白天看完房後,晚上再去附近多繞幾圈,看看是否有足夠的路燈?是否有不良分子出入或聚集?許多可能會讓人感到不安的因素,通常只有在晚間才會凸顯出來。
租屋前務必簽約
由於生活習慣大不同,因此簽約除了避免以後與房東在權益上發生爭執外,更重要的是可以初步了解台灣人的生活習慣,像是會提供哪些家具?水、電、瓦斯的費用怎麼算?是否需要負擔管理費?房間裡是否可以煮東西?可不可以養寵物?室內能不能抽菸?有沒有附網路?許多細節都要在契約中載明,才不會讓自己搬進房後發覺吃虧又產生不便!
在簽訂租屋契約時,請注意以下幾點:
一、押金:押金一般來講是兩至三個月租金,除非是店面或辦公室才有三個月以上甚或半年的押金,依照法律的規定超過兩個月以上的押金得折抵租金。
二、違約金:違約金部分法律並無規定,房客在租期中退租通常須支付一個月租金的違約金,但若在簽約時有約定,則以約定為準。
三、稅賦:地價稅及房屋稅皆由房東負責,營業用租賃稅必須講清楚由何 方支付,政府是直接向承租的營業單位扣稅,若未約定清楚,租賃稅就是由房客付。
四、租期:租期通常是一年,超過一年以上租約,房客最好註明承租超過一年不扣違約金,另外,房東與房客之間亦可視情況簽兩年或三年的租約,只要註明承租超過一年即不扣違約金即可。
五、房東違約:房東若在租期中要收回房子,除非房客同意,不然不管房東要賠多少都是不行的,不過慣例上,通常房客會接受一個月租金的違約金,另找房子。
六、房子損壞:房子結構性的缺陷如漏水龜裂等是由房東負責修繕,房東不處理,房客得照相後請商家修繕,款項由租金或押金中扣,消耗性物品的損壞由房客負責如燈管、燈泡、橡膠墊片等,如因房客的不正常使用而損壞也由房客負責。
七、證件:房客提供給房東的身分證影本,請在正反兩面註明”僅供租屋使用不做其他用途”,並請房東提供房屋稅單或房屋權狀影本。
八、所得稅扣抵:
符合以下條件才可以申報租金扣抵所得:
(1) 所租的房子,不能當營利事業使用,而是租來自住的房子。
(2) 承租人必須是納稅人本人、配偶或受扶養直系親屬。
(3) 房客應以實際的房租支出申報,租金超過一年十二萬元以十二萬元為上限。
(4) 不能同時申報購屋自住貸款利息支出。
申報時要準備哪些文件:
(1)租賃契約書正本:必須載明房東與房客的姓名、身分證字號、戶籍地址、 租金金額。
(2)房租付款證明影本:房客必須檢附房東簽收的收據,或足以證明匯入房東帳戶的證明文件影本,如自動櫃員機轉帳收據,或匯款證明。
(3)房客供自住的設籍證明文件:承租人必須是納稅人本人、配偶或受扶養直系親屬,在承租地址辦妥戶籍登記的證明,或簽具切結書保證承租人承租的房屋在課稅年度內是供自住 且非供營業或執行業務使用。
租屋常見的糾紛是租金或押金過高、租金不合理調漲,或租約期滿房東拒不返還押金等,因此選擇房東時,除了注意自身安全外(尤其是女房客),還有下列事項,提醒要租屋的同學一定要注意:
房東若係未成年人或無行為能力人,其出租應徵得其父母、法定代理人或監護人同意。
訂約時應了解房東是否為房屋的所有權人,房客可以要求房東提供所有權狀或房屋登記簿謄本。若房東並不是房屋所有權人,則應要求其出具授權證明,最好同時要求房東出示身分證明,以防被騙。
與房東同住或與人分租時,應特別注意房東、一起分租人的身份、職業、品性與家庭狀況。
若房東為二房東,則應了解其與大房東的租約租期,及其租約是否有約定禁止轉租的情事。
房東為公司、社團法人時,應由法人代表人簽約,或由代理人代理簽約。
簽約前需要跟房東談好的事情
簽定租約前應與屋主談妥下列事項,並簽訂書面的契約書。
租金、租金繳交期間與租金調幅。
租賃期間與押金。
前期房客水電、瓦斯、電話之處理。
搬入時間確定。
租賃設備、相關稅費、管理費、水電瓦斯費之使用與繳付。
要不要公證及提前解約之處理。
由於土地法第100條規定,在不定期租約下,房東要收回房屋需符合下列條件:
房東收回自住或改建。
房客違反契約約定或違法使用。
房客毀損房屋或家俱而不賠償。
因此要不要簽訂租約,要不要簽訂租賃期間,都必須審慎考量。
更多細節可以參考591的租屋房客手冊
如果覺得太麻煩,就找房仲
最後,如果覺得以上全部要自己關注太花心力,也是可以委託房屋仲介協助,像是文章開頭提到的永慶房屋、信義房屋、台灣房屋……等,都是可以洽詢的對象。
向房仲租屋的好處,就是能先過濾房東身分,減少假房東的問題,且因房仲受過專業訓練,無論是在議價或責任歸屬方面都能協助雙方協調,帶領看房的時間也比直接與房東約來得彈性,可以使找房更有效率,但也因此會多一筆仲介服務費,所以香港朋友可以針對自己的預算與對台灣的熟悉程度做斟酌。
但無論如何,總算是成功能在台灣落腳,都是件值得開心的事,後面希望大家都能找到自己理想的房子,踏穩新生活的第一步。
幾個常用網站:
📌https://www.rightmove.co.uk/ 📌https://www.zoopla.co.uk/
這兩者也是英國最大的房產網站,我買房也都是透過以上網站尋找房子。可以從別的地方尋找房源,但不妨從以上兩個網站比較看看有沒有更好的物件或是查看價錢是否合理。有想住區域打郵遞區號或是地點名就能搜尋該區物件。
和別人分租房間的話也可考慮這個 📌https://www.spareroom.co.uk/
想要查你的房東是真房東或是二房東嗎?請上英國政府網站付£3看登記的屋主是誰,能不能當二房東要看當初租約簽約時怎麼訂的。 📌https://www.gov.uk/search-property-information-land-registry
街道狀況,包含該區居住人口的年紀、工作、教育程度、種族、國籍、性別、犯罪率等等。
📌https://www.streetcheck.co.uk/
國宅(社會福利住宅)分佈狀況
最後說一下我在英國多年當房東的心得: 不要只依賴台灣人社群找房,可以參考但也請記得跳出去看看其它同條件的物件。社團看久了各種光怪陸離的事都有,人在海外別有迷思同鄉就一定會彼此照應,人就是人有好有壞,請自己分辨誰值得當朋友,壞人不會因為過了水就變成好人。
17/9 :$124
18/9: $144
2/10: $178
7/10 : $97
4/11 : $111
上個月批左Visa後,都差唔多一個月冇再Upate我地的情況。 呢一個月我地主要都係租屋同幫呀女報明年的學位。 先講租屋。之前一直都有聽人講,英國的地產Agent好似唔休做咁,搵佢又唔覆,或者唔太上心咁。Visa批之前,我地都有上Rightmove同Zoopla睇,都有幾個合心水的盤,但當時Visa未批,所以都冇去搵Agent。批左後當晚即刻email 呢幾個盤的Agents。兩三日之後,一個電話或者email都收唔到,再email多次,同埋打電話去。email唔洗講,都係冇覆,電話好似打左5-6間Agent,只有一間有人接電話,但都只係叫我地留低資料,之後再搵同事聯絡我地,但當然冇搵我地啦。 除左自己上呢兩個網之外,當地有朋友介紹左一個Agent,我地都有搵佢幫手,講哂我地情況,例如幾時會到,Budget幾多,要幾多房,同埋最重要係要邊個地區同位置。同呢位Agent應該傾左兩次電話,佢同我地講,放心,我地個Budget好多盤,好多選擇。因為當時自己上網搵嗰啲盤都冇回音,聽到呢位Agent講,都放心哂,因為我地都要趕Deadline入紙申請學校。 原來我地真係太過放心,呢位Agent介紹左一個盤,同我地要求的位置差好遠好遠好遠。咁講,我地想搵沙田嘅盤,佢俾個西環嘅盤,跟住同我地講,西環呢個盤,有好多outstanding的學校。
因為時間真係有啲緊迫,我地就上去Openrent自己再搵下,而最後我地都真係喺Openrent租到樓。 少少意見俾大家參考一下。Openrent的盤大部份都係業主自己放上去的,唔會有Agent幫手搞文件,簡單講,全部都要租客同業主自己去傾,不過,業主回覆非常快。我地搵左3個盤,全部都可以一、兩日內約去睇樓。因為我地仲未去,所以都要搵當地的朋友去幫手睇,剛好3個盤都約到同一日去睇,所以都真係好responsive。 我地未試過喺Rightmove或者Zoopla租過(Viewing機會都冇),所以唔知嗰邊流程係點,但Openrent就如剛才咁講,全部野都要自己同業主傾,少左Agent的幫手。 但因為真係未試過喺英國租樓,過程其實都係煩的。最煩的係業主要求做Reference Check。正如好多朋友講,除非以前喺英國做過野或者讀過書,如果唔係,Reference Check都好難過關。所以,我地一早就同業主講,我地係香港人,冇英國的credit history,可以俾香港的稅單,銀行月結單等等,而我地可以Upfront俾一年租。當然,業主(加埋Referencing Agent)佢地唔會睇香港的文件,都好合理,業主都話Upfront係必要的。咁我地選擇好其中一間,就同業主傾,交左holding deposit(一星期的租金),漫長過程就開始喇!! 業主都係堅持要做reference check,同意亦都明白,因為呢個係Openrent其中一步一定要做的。但部份業主會考慮因為已經Upfront交一年租,可以override個referencing 結果,照租,只要業主肯承擔後果。 點知,我地呢位業主話,好啦,你地referencing 唔過(其實結果都未出,不過都100%唔過),佢要求我地搵一個已經喺英國當地的人做擔保。 搵擔保人,我地都明,因為業主要保障自己,怕租左間屋俾個租霸,完約唔搬佢就煩。但前題係,佢要求Upfront交一年,我地又同意俾,咁做咩仲要搵人擔保?搵得擔保人,Upfront就冇意思,我地唔走,或者破壞左佢間屋,我地唔賠佢就可以去claim擔保人。 呢點都有同業主傾過(如果唔算嘈交的話),佢話佢明,佢都同意,不過都係要擔保人!! 前後搵左三個擔保人,頭兩個業主已經話唔得,話人地文件唔齊(我地都唔明有咩唔齊),當第二個佢都話唔得時,我地打算趕唔到申請學位都算,最多遲啲去。因為我地已經交左holding deposit,如果過唔到呢一步,業主要退返錢俾我地,而佢自己俾左錢做Referencing,好似幾十鎊一個人,所以業主都想解決的,因為過唔到Referencing佢就損失左Referencing的錢。另外,由交左holding deposit一刻開始,Openrent就會封左個盤,所以業主到呢一步唔租,都算係損失左機會租俾其他人。 之後再同業主傾,因為我地都想租呢個盤,我地再去揾多一個擔保人,朋友的朋友,佢非常好脾氣,自己幾忙都幫我地做哂業主的要求,所以我地最後都過到擔保人呢步。 呢一步,真係前後有三個星期,煩到日日同老公嘈交!! 過左擔保人呢關後就好簡單,業主同意租,就會通過Openrent出份合約,自己要睇。有咩唔同意就要自己同業主傾;業主加左好多條款,一樣,唔同意就自己同業主傾。不過,老實講,業主大哂,我地又想/要租,所以唔係太大問題就唔反對了。 總結咁講,Openrent係好煩,不過,起碼業主都係有心要租,佢都要俾錢賣廣告,佢亦真係會覆我地。如果大家喺嗰兩個網都搵唔到樓,都可以試下自己上Openrent搵。 另外,當然好睇業主,但都要有心理準備好嘅盤,業主要求就高,擔保人呢一部份都可能有需要,事前都要諗定有冇人可以幫手。不過,自己身邊都有十幾個家庭過左去英國,要擔保人呢part,真係未聽過,可能我地唔好彩!! 希望大家都順利租到樓,等緊結果的就快啲收到Visa!!!加油… …
先恭喜你成功租到房子,在英國租屋很不容易,即使係本地人,you are not alone!我分享我的經驗: 我本身係業主,我係經FB market place放租的,半天就十幾廿個回應,一天便租出了房子。全部我自己做reference check;我要求公司信,銀行月結單,個人證件等。如果租客背景好,便不用擔保人,否則便要更多references。合約方面:政府有法律規定的條款,商議的空間不太多。
Parallel universes could exist, whether cosmologists can prove it or not.
By Eric Betz | Published: Monday, December 14, 2020 RELATED TOPICS: ASTROPHYSICS multiverse1024x721 A multiverse consists of many separate and distinct universes, as depicted in this artist's concept. Jaswe/Shutterstock Do we live in a multiverse? Daydreamers and science-fiction authors have pondered parallel universes for as long as scientists have described our own.
Our universe contains everything we know — from planets, stars, and galaxies to space and time itself. And it’s truly staggering in size, spanning some 93 billion light-years across, according to astronomers’ estimates. That’s more than our species could ever hope to explore.
But what if our universe isn't the only one? What if alternate universes are humming along undetected, right "next" to ours?
Cosmologists call this idea the multiverse, and there’s good reason to consider the concept. Indeed, many of the best scientific models for the creation of our universe actually depend on the existence of a multiverse. Theories suggesting alternate universes
The idea of a multiverse didn’t just get thrust onto society by imaginative sci-fi writers, it’s been born out of other premises, like string theory and quantum mechanics. Even the theory of cosmic inflation, which sits at the heart of astronomers’ current ideas about our cosmos, predicts the existence of a multiverse.
A multiverse could be teeming with other universes that are nearly identical to ours — or they could be unimaginably different. Either way, the realms of parallel universes open up many interesting (and mind-boggling) possibilities.
As many authors have envisioned over the years, if there are infinite other universes, then there are at least some that contain doppelgängers of yourself. But these alternate versions of you also might experience an entirely different physical reality, as the laws of nature aren't necessarily the same for every universe. The four kinds of parallel universes
According to MIT mathematician and cosmologist Max Tegmark, a parallel universe could come in four different flavors. A parallel universe could have nothing qualitatively new and different than our own universe. A parallel universe could have totally different fundamental laws of physics. A parallel universe could have the same fundamental laws of physics, but have started with different initial conditions. A parallel universe could have the same fundamental laws of physics, but different effective bylaws. Many scientists have dismissed the very idea of the multiverse over the years because of one simple fact: If you can’t leave our own universe, then there’s no way to prove that any other universes exist. However, not everyone agrees with that premise. Proof of a multiverse
How would we prove that we live in a multiverse? If our universe collided with another, it would offer some evidence — though it's unclear whether we would survive to study it. And some theorists have suggested that colliding universes could leave cold spots or hot spots on the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the afterglow of the Big Bang. If so, we should be able to detect those spots with advanced sky surveys.
Gravitational waves — ripples in the fabric of space-time — might also provide evidence to support the theory of cosmic inflation. The theory predicts that gravitational waves left over from the Big Bang could put tiny curls into the CMB, which some telescopes are actively searching for today.
If researchers can spot such curls in the CMB — as they thought they did back in 2014 — it could ultimately boost support for the idea that there’s another you out there, going about their daily life in an alternate universe, proving sci-fi writers correct once again.
Or, perhaps, not. Maybe we don't each have countless extra-cosmic kin. And maybe that's not such a bad thing.
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A well-connected startup company is trying to rewrite the rules of reproduction. By Antonio Regaladoarchive page October 28, 2021 conceptual illustration of a stork with a baby NICOLÁS ORTEGA A few years ago, a young man from California’s technology scene began popping up in the world’s leading developmental biology labs. These labs were deciphering the secrets of embryos and had a particular interest in how eggs are formed. Some thought if they discovered that recipe, they would be able to copy it and transmute any cell into an egg.
Their visitor, Matt Krisiloff, said he wanted to help. Krisiloff didn’t know any biology, and he was only 26. But after leading a research program at Y Combinator, the famous startup incubator in San Francisco that was an early funder of such companies as Airbnb and Dropbox, he said, he was “well connected,” with access to wealthy tech investors.
Krisiloff also had a specific interest in the artificial-egg technology. He’s gay, and he knew that theoretically, a cell from a man could be turned into an egg. If that were ever possible, two men could have a child that was genetically related to both. “I was interested in the idea of ‘When can same-sex couples have children together?’” says Krisiloff. “I thought that this was the promising technology for doing this.”
Today the company Krisiloff started, called Conception, is the largest commercial venture pursuing what’s called in vitro gametogenesis, which refers to turning adult cells into gametes—sperm or egg cells. It employs around 16 scientists and has raised $20 million from well-known tech figures including Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI and former president of Y Combinator; Jaan Tallinn, one of the founders of Skype; and Blake Borgeson, a cofounder of Recursion Pharmaceuticals.
The company is initially trying to make replacement eggs for women. That’s scientifically easier than making eggs from male cells, and it has an obvious market. People are having kids later in life, but a woman’s supply of healthy eggs nosedives in her 30s. It’s a major reason patients visit IVF clinics.
Conception is starting with blood cells from female donors and trying to transform these into the first “proof-of-concept human egg” made in the lab. The company hasn’t done it yet—nor has anyone else. There are still scientific puzzles to overcome, but Krisiloff sent out an email to supporters earlier this year saying his startup might be “the first in the world to accomplish this goal in the not-too-distant future.” It says that artificial eggs “could become one of the most important technologies ever created.”
embryo manipulation concept NICOLáS ORTEGA That’s no exaggeration. If scientists can generate supplies of eggs, it would break the rules of reproduction as we know them. Women without ovaries—for example, because of cancer or surgery—might be able to have biologically related children. What’s more, lab-made eggs would cancel the age limits on female fertility, allowing women to have related babies at 50, 60, or even beyond.
The prospect of egg cells from a blood draw is profound—and ethically fraught. Conception’s process for making eggs from stem cells has required human fetal tissue. And if reproduction is dissociated from what have been the accepted facts of life, unfamiliar scenarios could result. It opens the door not only for same sex-reproduction, but perhaps even for one individual—or four—to generate an offspring.
More realistically, because the technology could turn eggs into a manufactured resource, it could supercharge the path to designer children. If doctors can make a thousand eggs for a patient, they’ll also be able to fertilize all of them and test to find the best resulting embryos, scoring their genes for future health or intelligence. Such a laboratory process would also permit unfettered genetic editing with DNA engineering tools such as CRISPR. As Conception put it in a pitch sent out earlier this year, the company anticipates that artificial eggs could allow “wide-scale genomic selection and editing in embryos.”
Says Krisiloff: “If you could meaningfully select against Parkinson’s risk, Alzheimer’s risk, I think this then becomes very desirable.” The potential commercial and health payoffs could be huge.
For scientific reasons, turning a man’s cell into a healthy egg is expected to be harder, and Conception hasn’t even tried that yet. But it’s part of the company’s business plan, too. Maybe, by the time Krisiloff is ready to start a family, two men will be able to contribute equally to an IVF embryo’s genetic makeup. A surrogate mother could then carry the child to term. “I do think it will be possible,” Krisiloff told MIT Technology Review. “It’s question of when, not if.”
A mouse tail Here’s how the egg-making technology could work. The first step is to take a cell from an adult—say, a white blood cell—and convert it into a powerful stem cell. That process relies on a Nobel Prize–winning discovery, called reprogramming, that allows scientists to induce any cell to become “pluripotent”—capable of forming any other type of tissue. The next step: cajole those induced stem cells to become eggs whose genetic makeup would match that of the patient.
It’s the last part that’s the scientific challenge. Certain cell types are very easy to make in the lab: leave pluripotent stem cells in a dish for a few days, and some will spontaneously start to beat like heart muscle. Others will become fat cells. But an egg might be the hardest cell to produce. It’s huge—one of the largest cells in the body. And its biology is unique, too. A woman is born with her full complement of eggs and never makes any more.
In 2016, a pair of scientists in Japan, Katsuhiko Hayashi and his mentor Mitinori Saitou, were the first to convert skin cells from mice into fertile eggs, entirely outside the body. They reported how, starting with cells from a tail clipping, they’d induced these into stem cells, which they then directed partway along the path to becoming eggs. Then, to finish the task, they incubated these proto-eggs alongside tissue collected from ovaries of mouse fetuses. In effect, they had to construct mini ovaries.
“It’s not a matter of ‘Oh, can I make an egg in a petri dish?’ It’s a cell that is contingent on its place in the body,” says David Albertini, an embryologist at the Bedford Research Foundation. “So it’s about creating an artificial structure that can recap the process.”
Unexpected visitor It was a year after the mouse breakthrough in Japan that Krisiloff began visiting biology labs to learn if the process could be repeated in humans. He turned up in Edinburgh in the United Kingdom, Skyped with professors in Israel, and also made the pilgrimage to Hayashi’s center at Kyushu University, in Fukuoka.
That’s where he met Pablo Hurtado González, a biologist visiting that lab on a scholarship, who would join Krisiloff as a founder of Conception. A third cofounder, Bianka Seres, an embryologist who worked in an IVF clinic, later joined the team.
Krisiloff, a University of Chicago graduate, had until then been the director of Y Combinator Research, where he launched a project to study giving people in the San Francisco area a basic monthly income. Y Combinator is the most famous startup academy in the world. The idea of its research project was to give away money with no strings attached as a strategy to prepare for a future where jobs are taken by automation.
founders of Conception.bio A startup called Conception is trying to remove the age limits on motherhood by converting blood cells into human eggs. Its founders (from left) are Bianka Seres, Matt Krisiloff, and Pablo Hurtado González. CHRISTOPHER WILLIAMS Krisiloff says he resigned from that role after he started dating Altman, who was Y Combinator’s president at the time. Although the relationship didn’t last, the job change freed him to work on the nascent egg venture full time, with an initial investment from Altman. The company was originally called Ovid Research and changed its name to Conception this month.
Some researchers sensed that the young entrepreneurs were in over their heads. The science of in vitro gametogenesis is dominated by a small cadre of university research groups who’ve been working on the problem for years. “When I talked to them, they had no clue, absolutely no clue, how to start a project,” says Albertini. “They were asking me what kind of equipment to buy. It was ‘How would you know if you made an egg? What would it look like?’”
Another scientist Krisiloff got to know was Jeanne Loring, a stem cell biologist at the Scripps Research Institute. Working with the San Diego Zoo, Loring had previously frozen cells from one of the last northern white rhinos, a species on the verge of extinction. She was interested in egg-making technology if she was ever to resurrect the animal. “They are young and optimistic and have money in their pockets, so they aren’t dependent on convincing people,” says Loring. “Sometimes it’s a really good idea to be naïve.”
What Krisiloff knew for sure was that reproductive technology could have the same sort of appeal to tech investors as AI or space rockets. As the Stanford University reproductive endocrinologist Barry Behr puts it, “These days if you write ‘fertility’ on a piece of cardboard and take it to Sand Hill Road, you can get funded.”
The problem with artificial gametes is that there’s not going to be a medical product for many years—and there are complex liabilities, like who is to blame if any eventual baby isn’t normal. Krisiloff didn’t see those as obstacles to organizing a company. Indeed, he believes more startups should be trying to solve “hard” science problems and that discoveries can come about faster in a commercial setting. “My argument is there could be a lot more funding if people turned research organizations into for-profit entities,” he says. “I am a big believer in more basic research going on in a company context.”
Fetal tissue Krisiloff’s company has never put out a press release or sought public attention. That is because his team hasn’t yet made a human egg, and he doesn’t want to be seen as promoting biological “vaporware.” Conception, Krisiloff says, is still trying to achieve its first technical benchmark—which is to produce a human egg and a patented process for making them.
That is also a goal of academic researchers like the ones in Japan who made the mouse eggs. But repeating the breakthrough with human cells is daunting. Because the recipe involves mimicking the natural steps by which eggs develop, experiments can last nearly as long as a pregnancy does. That’s not such a problem for mice, which are born in 20 days, but in humans, each experiment could take months.
When I met Saitou and Hayashi, in 2017, they told me copying the mouse technology in humans presented another troubling difficulty. Repeating the recipe exactly would require abortion tissue: scientists would have to obtain follicle cells from weeks-old human embryos or fetuses. The only alternative would be to learn how to manufacture these necessary support cells from stem cells too. That, on its own, would require a significant research effort, they predicted.
At Conception, scientists began by trying the fetal-tissue approach, which they believed was the fastest way to get a proof-of-concept egg. Krisiloff made extensive efforts to obtain the material—at one point even tweeting at abortion providers directly. He also sought collaborations with UCLA and Stanford, although these efforts didn’t pan out. He declined to say where Conception gets its tissue donations currently.
Fetal-tissue research is legal but extremely sensitive, and to some of the public it’s more than repugnant. During the Trump administration, health officials threw up new barriers, including empaneling abortion opponents to review grants. Krisiloff says the company still uses human fetal tissue, but now it’s more often used to understand the molecular signals that characterize key cell types so scientists can try to re-create those from stem cells.
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Sign up Stay updated on MIT Technology Review initiatives and events? Yes No “We have worked to some degree with primary human tissue, but it’s something to get away from,” Krisiloff told MIT Technology Review. “It’s not worth the potential controversy, because of how people feel about these things. I would rather be beaten to the punch and be working in a way that is all [stem cell] derived.”
So far, no one has made a human ovary organoid entirely from stem cells. But this summer, Hayashi’s group did manage to do it in mice. In a report in the journal Science, published in July, his team reported “the reconstitution of functional follicle structures that are fully capable of supporting oocyte production.” They also explained why a completely artificial system is important: “Because it does not require embryonic gonads, the methodology opens the possibility for application in other mammalian species with fewer ethical and technical concerns.”
“Yes, it took four years,” Hayashi emailed to say. “Better than nothing.” He said that he and Saitou were now trying repeat the construction of mini-ovaries with human stem cells, also with the goal of using them to grow an egg. That work is being funded by the Japanese government and by American tech wealth as well, via $6.5 million in grants from Good Ventures, the charity started by Facebook cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his wife, Cari Tuna.
Startup companies MIT Technology Review determined that three startups are now pursuing egg-making technology in the US. In addition to Conception, there is a two-person startup called Ivy Natal operating out of the IndieBio space in San Francisco. A third company, called Gameto, was formed by Martín Varsavsky, an entrepreneur and founder of the country’s largest chain of fertility clinics.
Both of Conception’s competitors are also hoping to turn stem cells into eggs but want to find quicker ways to do it. If the conventional strategy is to mimic fetal development—a single experiment “could take months; we don’t even know,” Krisiloff says—they hope to turn on the right set of genes, selected using computer predictions, and find a shortcut.
Related Story
A New Way to Reproduce Scientists are trying to manufacture eggs and sperm in the laboratory. Will it end reproduction as we know it? Gameto has raised only $3 million, but its financial backers are notable. They include Anne Wojcicki, the CEO of 23andMe; Brian Armstrong, a cryptocurrency multibillionaire who is the CEO of Coinbase; and the angel investor and Flickr cofounder Caterina Fake. The company’s main activity so far is to support a Harvard University research fellow named Pranam Chatterjee, who works in the laboratory of geneticist George Church. “This is the kind of thing that is experimentally difficult to achieve, but if you do achieve it, you can change the course of humanity,” says Varsavsky. “So it’s worth trying.”
Harvard’s strategy involves developing large databases of transcription factors. These are the signals that determine what identity a cell takes on. By turning on the right factors in a stem cell, the approach can sometimes yield a desired cell type directly, within a few days. Church says the strategy has proved to be “50 times as fast” as other methods. They still need to know what genes are active in the ovaries of an embryo at different stages of a pregnancy, to try to copy the patterns, but Church says that information is “publicly available” and they don’t need to generate it themselves from abortion tissue.
As Varsavsky puts it, “It’s like winning the lottery to make an oocyte, and this is a rational approach to factor picking.”
The Harvard lab is still awaiting a final ethics sign-off before it proceeds with egg-making experiments. Under a funding arrangement, Harvard and Gameto will split ownership of any egg-making recipe they develop, Church says.
The fact that none of the egg startup companies are very large reflects the sizable scientific and ethical risks still involved in the technology. “People are betting small amounts on the idea that it’s easier than anyone thinks,” says Church. “But the smart money is saying, ‘No, it’s harder.’” When I asked him how soon his lab might generate an egg, Church told me he guessed it would be “somewhere between six months and infinity.”
15 years away Many academic researchers still believe making eggs is a subtle, complex undertaking that should not be rushed. That includes the biologists in Japan who first turned cells from a mouse’s tail into eggs and then into mice. Last year, Hayashi fretted to me that commercial ventures trying to copy the technique in humans may be “premature.”
Hayashi said he worries about the medical consequences if someone makes a human this way. He has warned that while mice from artificial eggs appear healthy, and even have their own mouse babies, they could have “cryptic anomalies” or hidden defects. Before anyone risks making a human being from an artificial egg, there needs to be wide societal debate, much more research, and extensive safety tests, he and Saitou wrote in the journal Science this month.
Conception’s website says its technology would “potentially allow male-male couples to have biological children,” but that kind of procedure is even less certain. Hayashi’s team in Japan reported making eggs from male mouse cells—but it’s a very inefficient process. Their development is “severely disturbed” by genes present on the male Y chromosome that inhibit egg formation, although researchers may eventually be able to correct such imbalances with genetic engineering.
For female-female reproduction, it’s the opposite problem. Female cells have two X chromosomes but no copy of the Y chromosome. “If you don’t have a Y chromosome you can’t make sperm, because there are genes on the Y chromosome essential for that,” says Kyle Orwig, a researcher and sperm biology specialist at the University of Pittsburgh. There do seem to be ways around that barrier; in 2018, Chinese scientists reported constructing mice with two mothers. But that process involved a head-spinning series of laboratory manipulations that were far from natural. “There are extraordinarily complex ways in which you could achieve this in either direction,” says Orwig. “I wouldn’t discount the possibility in the long term, as there are a lot of smart people out there.”
Fertility doctors are already paying attention to what’s coming. Last week at the annual meeting of the American Society for Reproductive Medicine, in Baltimore, presentations on artificial gametogenesis and genetic editing dominated the plenary sessions. “It’s remarkably explicit,” says Ben Hurlbut, a sociologist of science at Arizona State University, who was at the gathering. “They’re talking about how in the future we will move reproduction entirely outside the human body.”
Proving it’s possible to make eggs in the lab, however, is just a first step—and maybe the easiest one. Even if researchers could generate eggs, they’d then have to prove they were safe to use. “The first thing you would do is science the hell out of that egg,” says Henry Greely, a bioethicist and law professor at Stanford University. The next step would be to fertilize manufactured eggs and see if the human embryos that result develop normally in a lab dish.
If IVF embryos made from artificial eggs do appear normal, fertility doctors might conclude it’s safe to proceed. That’s what Varsavsky thinks. “The path is to make embryos, genetically test them, and see if you can detect any difference between an embryo made this way and the usual way. And if you can’t, I think this should be approved by the FDA,” he says.
Greely says he’s concerned that ambitious doctors will rush to test the technology too soon, like what happened when researchers created the first gene-edited babies in China in 2018. In his own speech to the convention of fertility doctors last week, Greely said he believed it will take 15 years before the technology can be used widely. He urged them to go slow and first use try out artificial eggs to make monkeys, maybe even chimpanzees.
Anyone who moves too fast and makes “disabled or dead babies,” he warned, deserves a special “circle of hell.”
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DEEP DIVE BIOTECHNOLOGY
Death and Jeff Bezos Meet Altos Labs, Silicon Valley’s latest wild bet on living forever Funders of a deep-pocketed new "rejuvenation" startup are said to include Jeff Bezos and Yuri Milner. By Antonio Regaladoarchive page
The miracle molecule that could treat brain injuries and boost your fading memory Discovered more than a decade ago, a remarkable compound shows promise in treating everything from Alzheimer’s to brain injuries—and it just might improve your cognitive abilities. By Adam Piorearchive page Computer enhanced 3D diffusion spectral imaging (DSI) scan of the bundles of white matter nerve fibres in the brain. This is how your brain makes your mind Your mind is in fact an ongoing construction of your brain, your body, and the surrounding world. By Lisa Feldman Barrettarchive page sky wallpaper for comic Five things we got wrong about the brain We made a comic to explain the truth behind some common misconceptions. By David Robsonarchive pageDavid Biskuparchive page STAY CONNECTED
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香港灣仔港灣道18號 中環廣場32樓3208室
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ESA KEY TAKEAWAYS
Since Einstein posited his theory of general relativity, we've understood that gravity has the power to warp space and time. This "time dilation" effect occurs even at small levels. Outside of physics, we experience distortions in how we perceive time — sometimes to a startling extent.
Stephen Johnson
Place one clock at the top of a mountain. Place another on the beach. Eventually, you’ll see that each clock tells a different time. Why? Time moves slower as you get closer to Earth, because, as Einstein posited in his theory of general relativity, the gravity of a large mass, like Earth, warps the space and time around it.
Scientists first observed this “time dilation” effect on the cosmic scale, such as when a star passes near a black hole. Then, in 2010, researchers observed the same effect on a much smaller scale, using two extremely precise atomic clocks, one placed 33 centimeters higher than the other. Again, time moved slower for the clock closer to Earth.
The differences were tiny, but the implications were massive: absolute time does not exist. For each clock in the world, and for each of us, time passes slightly differently. But even if time is passing at ever-fluctuating speeds throughout the universe, time is still passing in some kind of objective sense, right? Maybe not.
In his book “The Order of Time,” Italian theoretical physicist Carlo Rovelli suggests that our perception of time — our sense that time is forever flowing forward — could be a highly subjective projection. After all, when you look at reality on the smallest scale (using equations of quantum gravity, at least), time vanishes.
“If I observe the microscopic state of things,” writes Rovelli, “then the difference between past and future vanishes … in the elementary grammar of things, there is no distinction between ’cause’ and ‘effect.'”
So, why do we perceive time as flowing forward? Rovelli notes that, although time disappears on extremely small scales, we still obviously perceive events occur sequentially in reality. In other words, we observe entropy: Order changing into disorder; an egg cracking and getting scrambled.
Rovelli says key aspects of time are described by the second law of thermodynamics, which states that heat always passes from hot to cold. This is a one-way street. For example, an ice cube melts into a hot cup of tea, never the reverse. Rovelli suggests a similar phenomenon might explain why we’re only able to perceive the past and not the future.
“Any time the future is definitely distinguishable from the past, there is something like heat involved,” Rovelli wrote for the Financial Times. “Thermodynamics traces the direction of time to something called the ‘low entropy of the past’, a still mysterious phenomenon on which discussions rage.”
Benedict Cumberbatch on The Order of Time youtu.be
He continues:
“Entropy growth orients time and permits the existence of traces of the past, and these permit the possibility of memories, which hold together our sense of identity. I suspect that what we call the “flowing” of time has to be understood by studying the structure of our brain rather than by studying physics: evolution has shaped our brain into a machine that feeds off memory in order to anticipate the future. This is what we are listening to when we listen to the passing of time. Understanding the “flowing” of time is therefore something that may pertain to neuroscience more than to fundamental physics. Searching for the explanation of the feeling of flow in physics might be a mistake.”
Scientists still have much to learn about how we perceive time, and why time operates differently depending on the scale. But what’s certain is that, outside of the realm of physics, our individual perception of time is also surprisingly elastic.
Time moves differently atop a mountain than it does on a beach. But you don’t need to travel any distance at all to experience strange distortions in your perception of time. In moments of life-or-death fear, for example, your brain would release large amounts of adrenaline, which would speed up your internal clock, causing you to perceive the outside world as moving slowly.
Another common distortion occurs when we focus our attention in particular ways.
“If you’re thinking about how time is currently passing by, the biggest factor influencing your time perception is attention,” Aaron Sackett, associate professor of marketing at the University of St. Thomas, told Gizmodo. “The more attention you give to the passage of time, the slower it tends to go. As you become distracted from time’s passing—perhaps by something interesting happening nearby, or a good daydreaming session—you’re more likely to lose track of time, giving you the feeling that it’s slipping by more quickly than before. “Time flies when you’re having fun,” they say, but really, it’s more like “time flies when you’re thinking about other things.” That’s why time will also often fly by when you’re definitely not having fun—like when you’re having a heated argument or are terrified about an upcoming presentation.”
One of the most mysterious ways people experience time-perception distortions is through psychedelic drugs. In an interview with The Guardian, Rovelli described a time he experimented with LSD.
“It was an extraordinarily strong experience that touched me also intellectually,” he said. “Among the strange phenomena was the sense of time stopping. Things were happening in my mind but the clock was not going ahead; the flow of time was not passing any more. It was a total subversion of the structure of reality.”
It seems few scientists or philosophers believe time is completely an illusion.
“What we call time is a rich, stratified concept; it has many layers,” Rovelli told Physics Today. “Some of time’s layers apply only at limited scales within limited domains. This does not make them illusions.”
What is an illusion is the idea that time flows at an absolute rate. The river of time might be flowing forever forward, but it moves at different speeds, between people, and even within your own mind.
10點-7個 11點-8個 12點-7個 一小時一節課,提前5分鐘左右下課。把小朋友帶到樓下家長會來接,接著帶下一個班小朋友上教室上課即可。
好多人認為中共對台發動戰爭必敗,因此並無發動戰爭既可能 / 動機。呢個說法合乎人性與及功利主義下常人思想既基本邏輯,但往往忽視左中共係一個毫無道德底線、邪惡政權既本質。今次會同大家讀三場中共過往主動發動戰爭既事件與及三場,從中了解中共對戰爭既理念 - 對中共黎講戰爭勝敗、人命傷亡並唔重要,發動戰爭只係帝皇用於鞏固權力既工具:
TL;DR: 1. 1950 年,韓戰戰死 40 萬,毛鞏權,國內鎮反處決 70 萬 2. 1969 年 - 珍寶島衝突戰死 800 人,林鞏權,一打三反非正常死亡 20 萬 3. 1979 年 - 懲越戰爭戰死 3 萬,鄧鞏權,國內嚴打處決 90 萬 4. 1989 年 - 六四屠殺,新疆反恐、鎮壓香港 - 為保權力,不惜一切 5. 下圖總結中共發動戰爭、用兵從來唔係以勝利為目標,只係為左對內鞏權而用 https://na.cx/i/boYgFZT.png 6. 因此中共係咪需要一場戰爭並唔取決於勝算,而係取決點樣增加其統治既有效性 7. 上面呢個先係西方認為台海戰爭風險大增既主因,與勝算無關 8. 以上全屬歷史事實,唔係散播恐懼,而係正視風險同威脅
X. 現時大量鎖國訊號,西方亦指出戰爭風險大增,切勿低估風險 Y. 最後,希望大家都估錯,呢篇文講既野唔會發生。 Z. 香港人,平安。 74 3
交加街38號 • 2h 一、韓戰 - 國外戰死 40 萬 - 國內鎮反處決 70 萬
1950 年 10 月,毛澤東號召「抗美援朝,保家衛國」以「中國人民志願軍」既名義,以「擊殺美軍」為主要作戰目的,大規模咁介入韓戰,40 萬軍民響欠缺確實戰略意圖既情況下因此戰死。可怕既係,韓戰既爆發,令毛澤東意識到呢次係藉着外在敵人黎穩固政權既良機,於是要求響全國範圍部署「鎮壓反革命」。
抗美援朝很有好處,使我們的很多事情都好辦,如搞土改、訂愛國公約、搞生產競賽、鎮反等。因為抗美援朝的鑼鼓響起來,響得很厲害,土改的鑼鼓、鎮反的鑼鼓就不大聽見了,就好搞了 劉少奇
因此,毛澤東當時除左決定派軍「抗美援朝」外,又連夜起草「雙十指示」,響全國各地以「鎮反」既名義展開大規模既處決行動。而「雙十通知」後 4 個月,1951 年 2 月,又實施全國性鎖關令人民無處可逃,大規模鎮反運動進行 3 年,260 餘萬人被捕,130 餘萬人被監禁,70 萬人被處決。
由於我之前已經寫過呢段歷史,不作闡述,有興趣可以睇:https://lih.kg/2499224
二、珍寶島 - 國外戰死 800 人 - 國內一打三反非正常死亡 20 萬
1960 年代,為左爭奪共產世界既領導權,中蘇交惡。1969 年 3 月,中共以「自衛反擊戰」既名義,以十比一既軍力投入,入侵並成功控制珍寶島。林彪成功借戰爭提高左佢國內既政治地位,1969 年 4 月九大展開,林彪就確立左成為毛澤東既「親密戰友和接班人」。珍寶島一役後,蘇聯高層曾多次商討對中國進行報復,又響邊境大規模陳兵,一度發出先發制人突擊同核打擊既威脅,雙方一度處於核戰爆發邊緣。
1969 年 10 月,林彪跳過毛澤東發表《林副主席指示第一號令》,呢個當中包括左四個《指示》號令全國進入臨戰狀態,令中蘇雙方進入更為劍拔弩張既狀態。而《四個指示》除左對外作戰既準備,又包括左對內清除異己:
自從黨的第九次全國代表大會以來……形勢大好。但是國內外階級敵人不甘心他們的失敗……加緊進行破壞活動,……有的散布戰爭恐怖,造謠惑眾;有的盜竊國家機密,為敵效勞;有的乘機翻案,不服管制;有的秘密串聯,陰謀暴亂;……有的破壞插隊下放。……為了落實戰備,鞏固國防……必須堅決地穩、準、狠地予以打擊…… 《關於打擊反革命活動的指示》
一小撮階級敵人不僅在政治上伺機反撲,而且在經濟領域里向社會主義也發動了進攻 《關於反對貪污盜竊、投機倒把的指示》
最後《關於打擊反革命活動的指示》響 1970 年 1 月正式發出,當中就強調「蘇修正在加緊勾結美帝,陰謀對我國發動侵略戰爭;國內的反革命分子也乘機蠢動,遙相呼應,這是當前階級鬥爭中值得注意的新動向」。因此,要響全國「對反革命的各種破壞活動堅決地穩、準、狠地予以打擊」。
由於當時前文提及響 1951 年落實既鎖關政策尚未解除,人民無處可逃,一打三反進行左僅僅 10 個月,就有 184 萬人被打為叛徒 / 特務 / 反革命份子,30 餘萬人被捕,9000 人被處決。而當時一個人該唔該殺,並唔係好似鎮反咁由「法庭」作出判決,而係走「群眾路線」先遊街示眾,再響「萬人大會」上面當場討論應唔應該槍斃,響咁既逼害下就有接近 20 萬人「不正常死亡」。
三、懲越戰爭 - 國外戰死 3 萬 - 鄧鞏權國內嚴打處決 90 萬
由於中蘇交惡持續,珍寶島衝突為中美聯手對抗蘇聯打開左契機。1975 年,當時越南已經被越共統一,由於當時越共由親蘇派掌權,又因追擊南越而入侵並推翻中共盟友赤柬而交惡,當時既越南成為左蘇聯響東亞牽制中共既力量。同一時間由於當時既美蘇冷戰,美國又有意借中共牽引蘇聯,當時剛剛打倒左「凡是派」既鄧小平為左進一步鞏固權力,並取得改革開放所需要既資金與及技術回報,決定對美國立下投名狀,入侵越南。
1979 年 2 月,岩岩從美國回國既鄧小平,就以越共不顧中國抗美援越挑釁中國為由,以「自衛還擊,保衛邊疆」既名義,對越共進行「懲罰」。由於當時蘇越之間有合作協議,中共入侵越南既作戰時間亦「見好就收」,剛好響蘇聯能夠合法動員前完全結束 (17/2 ~ 16/3 剛好不足一個月)。同韓戰相似既係,當時領將許世友就以「全面焦土,不分軍民,立即擊殺」為其主要作戰方針,除左越軍外,當時大量平民、甚至婦女被殺,撤離期間又大規模咁破壞當地既村莊、公路、鐵路,摧毀左大量醫院、學校、與及農田。
「教訓越南」給越、蘇、美和其他國家發出了信息。……西方在金融和技術上支持中國。美國得以集中資源擊敗蘇聯。……鄧小平鞏固權力,同時實施經濟改革。蘇聯與美中敵對陷入困境,越蘇都比中國困難。……中國軍隊傷亡不理想但領導人可以容忍。 《鄧小平的持久戰:1979年至1991年中越軍事衝突》
而鄧小平鞏權後,進一步「撥亂反正」提倡「清理三種人」又響 1983 年實施「嚴厲打擊刑事犯罪活動 (嚴打)」強調「依法將刑事犯罪分子逮捕一大批,判刑一大批,勞教一大批,註銷城市戶口一大批,並且殺掉一批有嚴重罪行、不殺不足以平民憤的犯罪分子」。根據官方數字,持續 3 年 5 個月既「嚴打」三大戰役,共查獲各種犯罪團伙 20 萬個,查處團伙成員 90 萬人,全國逮捕 177 萬人,判刑 175 萬人、其中 2 萬人被判處死刑,勞教 32 萬人。
及後江胡年代 1996 年、2001 年、2010 由另外發動三次嚴打,數據已不可考,而習近平又吸取江胡既經驗以反貪為名大規模殊殺政敵,鎮壓一切敵對聲音。民運人士劉青 2012 年撰文就指出,中共內部估算嚴打死亡人數有 90 萬。
四、六四屠殺、新疆反恐、香港恐黑暴 - 為保權力,不惜一切
六四事件,某程度上係鄧小平同改革派派系鬥爭、衝突既結果 (留意並非全部,但篇幅所限我唔會響呢度探討)。六四、新疆、香港都係中共壓逼下,公民反彈既結果。雖然並唔係一場人民同政府之間既內部戰爭,但往往都會遭受不合比例既方式鎮壓,動員同殺平民既主要目的唔係國家受到威脅,而係共產黨既管治遭受質疑,並引發民粹動員,於燎原前必須盡速撲殺。
因此中共需要通過「殺戮」產生「戰慄效應」,但殺戮往往欠缺合理法理依據,六四屠殺時就參考當年「鎮壓西藏」既理據,頒報《關於動亂的實質》,指群眾為「恐怖分子」與及「反革命分子」,又指有「外國勢力」介入,再對全國進行大規模鎮壓 (除左北京、成都、西安、武漢、南京、上海、廣州等等地都有大規鎮壓);而二十年後既新疆反抗亦以「反恐」為名進行大幅鎮壓,再以「反極端化」為名建立集中營;最近既香港反抗就以「外國勢力」「反恐」「防疫」等理由為名進行大幅鎮壓並建立監控系統,再以「國安」之名進行勞改。( **留意,六四、新疆、香港,分別對應既係 解放軍、武警 同 香港黑警,三者都中共治下既 軍事部隊 / 準軍事化部隊)
而由上面可見,響保護政權統治既角度,只要能夠打擊共產黨外既反對勢力 - 監禁、殺人、占占占人、勞改、酷刑、浮屍、強姦、集中營都可以成為不受追究既合法手段,亦由此可見中共對保護權力本身係毫無道德底線可言。六四屠殺不惜付上可能被經濟制裁既風險仍然執意實施屠城、而對新疆香港既反抗,亦無視人權,制裁,外資撤離,不惜一切代價,為保政權統治而大力鎮壓並建立恐怖統治,通過恐懼一步一步改造當地民族。 7 0
交加街38號 • 2h 五、中共主動發動戰爭從來唔係為左勝利,全部另有「目的」
我地探討左上述幾次用兵同發動戰爭既理據,將上述作出總結,就可以總括出下面呢個表:
而由上圖可見,中共發動戰爭係可以完全唔以勝利為目標,可以只係單純為左對內鞏權而用,係咪需要一場戰爭並唔取決於呢場戰爭既勝算,而係取決點樣通過呢場戰爭去增加佢統治既有效性。例如韓戰、越戰都係以「擊殺敵人」呢類無作戰目的既方式進行戰爭,甚至付上大量既生命,為既可以只係領導人既鞏權、對內展開政治清洗、或者爭取他國支持等等等等。
因此,觀察中共會否發動戰爭,並唔能夠以戰爭「勝算」作為參考。必須了解當刻之時代背景、國際戰略形勢,當時國家發展方針,領導人權力之需要、共產黨統治穩定性、是否存在有利共產黨管治既誘因等等作出分析,先能夠正確估算同理解現時既戰爭風險。呢度我嘗試將幾個唔同既假設整合:
一、中共需要高速發展,驅使佢採取劇烈行動,冒更大風險嘗試實現原有目標
呢個觀點係出自約翰斯・霍普金斯大學國際事務教授 Hal Brands 同 塔夫茨大學政治學副教授 Michael Beckley 共同發表既文章《China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem》,佢地就指出,中國高速發展既時候,可能覺得前途無可限量,就會建立好多宏大願景。然而當中國遇到困難同危機,發現未來灰暗,認為距離實現願景越黎越遠,危機感就會驅使佢採取劇烈行動,冒更大既風險嘗試實現原有目標。強調「美國需要準備打大戰 (major war),不是因為對手正在崛起,而是相反。」
二、當發現地緣政治威脅時,中共發動戰爭以保持其地緣領導地位
同樣由 Hal Brands 同 Michael Beckley 共同發表既文章《What Will Drive China to War?》,引述多份文獻指出,中共發動戰爭並唔在意佢既勝算,而係當敵人進逼既時候佢就會發動攻擊。 當中共意識到佢既領土 / 周邊地區遭受威脅,或者爭議地區將會失去控制既時候,就會發動戰爭。而佢並唔在意對手既實力,而事實上,北京亦經常攻擊遠超佢優勢既敵人 —— 當中就包括左韓戰既美國、珍寶島既蘇聯 —— 因為通過地緣上既優勢,中共可以通過不合比例既武力以壓倒性既軍力,將敵方小規模投入遠東戰場既作戰兵力由中國聲稱擁有主權既領土或其他敏感既領土上面擊退。
2016 年 Rand Corporation 智庫為美國政府提供有關中美戰爭既一份報告《War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable》亦提及:「中美衝突不太可能出現大規模陸地作戰。 ... 即使摧毀了中國的海空軍力量,美國也明白如果在中國的土地上與之展開地面戰,美軍將陷於苦戰並付出沈重代價。」而同樣地,最近澳洲前國防部長 Christopher Pyne 演講時亦曾經指出中國目前既軍力可以響西印太地區、東南亞同澳洲組成既島鏈上進行「實力不對稱作戰」(asymmetric war)。
三、西方圍堵已成、「中國模式」不再,回天無力,鎖國讓外、進入戰時模式
台灣作家 范疇 發表文章《沒有瘋,中國只是進入「戰時經濟」》就指出由於西方圍堵,中共一時無力回天,唯有將中國整體經濟推入「戰時經濟」狀態,社會管理進入「戰時社會」一石三鳥:(1) 去除政敵、(2) 掩飾民怨、(3) 集中權力。而戰時經濟有幾個特徵:(1) 內部資源循環、(2) 犧牲民生、(3) 集中於備戰基礎工業同軍備生產、(4) 所有過去「沉浸成本」消除、(5) 控制貨幣流通機制、(6) 控制社會思想,(7) 高舉民族主義、(8) 國家主義,以抵銷人民對種種不幸同痛苦既怨氣。
而呢個亦係我地最近見到各種 CLS 現象既主因,例如摧毀滴滴、螞蟻金服、以掃黃力度集體消滅千萬就業人口既培訓產業、取消學區房、終止二手房買賣市場、全面停發護照,禁止英語考試、人民結匯急煞車、全國大停電、無視恆大爆破、北部都會計劃等等,而呢類外面睇係 CLS 既行為其實都係「戰時經濟」既必要安排,以斷尾保權既派系鬥爭行為。
但要留意既係,范疇 並唔認為中共進入戰時模式就等於習近平會響台海開戰,但佢指出習近平既認知入面:朝鮮,響核武器既支撐下能夠響世界上面打混 70 年,而中共作為泱泱大國,即使鎖國同美國脫釣,仍然可以再混多 100 年,所以佢並唔懼怕鎖國帶黎既經濟後果,相反佢有極大既誘因為權力而閉關鎖國。
四、混合上述三者,習近平現時是否有誘因打一場冇勝算但有利鞏權既戰爭?
最後,呢到係我個人既假想。中共面對嚴重既國際圍堵,現時有極大既誘因要進入閉關鎖國既戰時模式,加上習近平稱帝之初,需要去除政敵、集中權力,而中美交惡、台海就制造左一個同韓戰、珍寶島戰役與及禦越戰爭非常相似既環境。當下西方無法一舉將習近平政權完全摧毀 (參考《War with China》),但反過黎既係,當下習近平就擁有一個破壞地區和平以鞏固自身權力,鎖國全面進入戰時模式既機會(包括香港)。
我既疑問係,習近平現時是否有誘因打一場冇勝算但有利內政既戰爭?會否通過戰爭,極速鎖國,為左鞏固權力,或者殊殺內部敵人?會否通過發動戰爭,進入戰時模式用舉國體制與西方再進行鬥爭?會否更極端進入恐怖主義,用 國門開放 / 人質處決 要脅西方作人質外交?還是習近平能夠「浪子回頭」響經濟、人權上作出大幅退讓,令中美關系出現轉機,扮演救中國、救世界既正面角色?(當然唔撚會,就算會都係假呃九你,掉張道德牌試探西方行唔行 distrust and verify,唔行就拖)
上述一、二、三、四 - 小總結
上面,我多翻引述幾個歷史案例,並唔係想散播恐懼,而我希望大家了解戰爭爆發好多時候都唔取決於戰爭既勝算,甚至西方亦可以因為一件小事而爆發大戰 (e.g. 斐迪南公爵遇刺)。雖然我相信歷史唔會完整咁重複,但台海戰爭會唔會爆發,其實係取決於習近平個人本身既政治智慧 (唔係權術),而邪惡政權會唔會發動戰爭,其實同大家經常討論既「勝算」無關,而係同中共既「利益」有關。 11 0
交加街38號 • 2h 總結、鎖國,戰爭,風險,認知作戰,香港
中共響 20 年同 21 年既糧食進口噸數比 2019 年大幅上升,即使扣除中美貿易協議條數,都係不合常理地高。2020 年中國進口糧食 1.42 億噸,較 2019 年增長 27.9%;2021 年 1~8 月,進口糧食 1.14 億噸,超過 2019 年全年既糧食進口量,相較去年同期增長了 34.8%,響大幅增加糧食進口仍然呼籲群眾自行準備糧食,加上現時中國各種政策如停止簽發護照、禁止英語考試、禁止尿素出口、MPF 轉年金、大幅增加回國/回港成本、北部都會 CAP 水、共同富裕、鼓勵生育、就明顯有進入戰時經濟既訊號,而必然與其共時發生既就係閉關鎖國。
與之相對既係,現時處於習近平稱帝之初,需要去除政敵、集中權力,而中美交惡、台海就制造左一個與當年韓戰、珍寶島戰役與及禦越戰爭非常相似既環境。習近平現時是否有誘因打一場冇勝算但有利內政既戰爭?通過戰爭進行鎖國建立戰時經濟,是否其國際圍堵下既出路?還是習近平能夠「浪子回頭」響經濟、人權上作出大幅退讓,令中美關系出現轉機?咁就取決於習近平個人本身既政治智慧,對此我並無答案。
但我需要提醒各位既係,呢個風險同可能性其實隨著中美交惡大幅咁上升緊,甚至西方已經因為戰爭爆發既可能性派駐大量武力進入南海與及西太平洋就係為左避免戰爭既發生、當今西方,日本、台灣亦不再忌圍作出戰略上既討論。
千祈唔好比歲月靜好蒙蔽左你既雙眼、唔好比中共既認知作戰改變左你既思路,切勿低估戰爭風險,切勿低估戰爭風險,切勿低估戰爭風險 (重要講三次)。
最後,我希望我講既所有野 (鎖港、戰爭、地域封鎖) 都唔會響香港仍然有大量平民既情況下發生。
香港人,平安。