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Member since 2017-07-15T03:50:57Z. Last seen 2025-04-09T16:00:01Z.
2754 blog posts. 128 comments.
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我知道手足依家喺出面打生打死中，但係我都係要出呢個post多謝大家，希望大家返歸途中一開連登唔係啲撚屌灰post同輸post
過咗差唔多5個月，香港人經歷過無數個集會同遊行，多謝有出過嚟嘅你，不論你係和理非定勇武，你已經為呢場不可能嘅抗爭招來咗曙光，香港人從來都冇諗過會有一個幾百萬人嘅遊行會發生，冇諗過會衝入立法會，冇諗過會經歷黑社會恐襲，更冇諗過會有真槍打落香港人度，被性侵同被自殺更係數之不盡，但係你都冇驚到，而你選擇咗今日行出嚟，你就係英雄，你為呢場運動付出咗一分力，沒有100%勇武，只有100%信念，你盡咗你最大嘅努力去爭取自由，香港人不斷進化，就係因為你有出嚟經歷不公，然後吸收經驗捲土重來，所以你肯出嚟，已經嬴緊。
勝利最終會屬於香港人，因為有你。喺呢場運動入面冇人係孤兒，你肯出嚟，你會發現左右都係你嘅兄弟姊妹。
煲底見
142 throwaway_yc 7 hrs 60 news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21410579 I get nervous very easily and my heart starts throbbing when it comes to speak to anyone. It is affecting my career. How can I fix it? What are the resources to improve speaking skill?
the_watcher 2 hrs There's a reason Toastmasters is so recommended in this thread: it's really good at what it is, so try that out.
For other options, try speaking a lot more in low pressure situations. At work, try small groups to start. Ask your manager if you can lead a team meeting where the agenda is defined, and your role is just to facilitate discussion. Present your work to 3 teammates and ask them to hold questions until the end.
In your personal life, if you are a regular at a coffee shop or lunch place and see the same person repeatedly, learn their name, then ask them how they are doing whenever you see them. Try to actually answer with something specific when people ask how you are doing. If you have kids or access to them (young relatives), try reading out loud to them. Join a writing seminar that asks you to read your work out loud.
The above are just a laundry list of ideas, the point is basically "find low pressure environments to speak, do it as often as possible, vary the scenarios."
dahart 13 mins Many years ago in college I was skydiving with an adrenaline junky friend who would sign up for public speaking at any opportunity just to make himself nervous on purpose. He enjoyed the thrill of having his heart start throbbing, and even liked not being very prepared. While I recommend lots of preparation for public speaking, I do really like the idea of embracing being scared of speaking as part of the fun, and I’ve tried to borrow that attitude and make it part of my own personal narrative. I guess it helped because these days I always jump at the chance to give a conference talk.
achenatx 5 hrs I was a disaster at speaking until I was in grad school and had to teach classes (6+ hours/week). At some point you get enough volume and it becomes no big deal. You start focusing on trying to educate or amuse your audience and are no longer nervous. The key is to get enough practice. Toastmasters is one way to get started, but nothing beats the volume you get by signing up to teach a class several times a week.
hammerbrostime 4 hrs Same experience here with teaching, it has had a huge secondary benefit for me in that I know how to run a room. I also highly recommend running a meetup.
moron4hire 2 mins That's basically how I did it, too. Teaching martial arts classes 3 to 5 times a week, for 3 hours a night (though that was many years and many beers ago). My coworkers remark on how well I speak in public, and while I get that from their perspective it's a scary thing, to me it's just another job.
If you're in a reasonably sized city, there are probably dozens of tech meetups looking for content. Just start hanging out and you'll start seeing opportunities to talk. Take them.
Ididntdothis 2 hrs If you are like me (super shy and self conscious) I definitely would do toastmasters first before doing a lot of teaching. I did teaching for a while but I wasn’t ready so I just kept piling up more and more bad experiences without getting better. After a year of toastmasters I had a pretty good foundation and finally could actually improve.
It feels like going into a country without ang knowledge of the language. You can be there for years and never learn anything. But once you have a foundation then learning is possible.
Loughla 4 hrs I'll second this. There is nothing like teaching to get your ability to publicly speak built up.
I was garbage at public speaking until I had to teach an ed. law course in graduate school. Now I'm exceptional at it.
It also helps if it's a subject you're super knowledgeable about. That helps.
SeanBoocock 3 hrs Yeah this was a big one for me. TAing classes as an undergrad and then running classes as a grad student removed a lot of the anxiety. I still have some level of nerves, but it feels like it comes from a healthier place and isn’t crippling. Also helps to fail in low(er) stakes situations and realize that the world goes on afterwards.
thomasjudge 3 hrs There are also other venues for teaching that one can explore - extension classes, etc. I paid for my summers in grad school by teaching test prep classes. Was pretty awesome once I could focus mainly on the grad classes - LSAT, GMAT, GRE. But great teaching and public speaking experience.
walshemj 2 hrs Me to I was nervous, but when I was 20 or so I joined a group in the UK 18 Plus (now just Plus) similar to Rotaract.
I joined the committee and I was my job to stand up and announce the next weeks events, I used to imagine putting on circus masters top hat to get over my nerves.
I ended up going to various conferences run on formal lines and speaking at those.
I have also gone to a large number of "political" conferences run on formal lines (think roberts rules) both as delegates and standing order committees - which organize the formalities of business.
I was on may way to a meeting and bumped into John Bercow on his way to the house of commons, unfortunately I did not have my copy of Citrine other wise id have asked him to sign it.
Simon Lancaster has a good book on a mechanics of rhetoric and speech writing
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Simon-Lancaster/e/B005NAQX8U/ref=dp...
khazhou 2 hrs I would suggest, if this is at phobia-level for you, it's worth thinking about why you're getting so nervous.
I went from enjoying public speaking to absolutely dreading it (feeling like I'm falling off a cliff, trembling voice, sudden drops in blood pressure leading to complete loss of train-of-thought). This was literally career-limiting, and I could see how I was being excluded from projects that would require presenting to VPs + execs.
I spent a lot of time reflecting on it, and realized what had happened was that I had taken over management of a failing project, and I wasn't turning it around. Our VP was extremely harsh, and drew out everyone's professional failures/limitations. But I realized that my sudden and complete inability to present, was linked to me "knowing" that my work sucked, or knowing that no matter what I said, it was gonna end badly with me looking like an idiot.
So I would suggest you might think about whether the public-speaking nervousness also happens when you're asked to present something you're happy, proud, and knowledgable about, or whether it's connected to insecurity in your work, project, or your own mastery of the material you're presenting.
RandomBacon 6 hrs Toastmasters is great.
The meetings are structured with an agenda, the toastmaster for the meeting makes sure the agenda is followed and stays on topic.
They've made the program more dynamic. I don't know the new details very well and not sure how I feel about it. It used to be everyone received a workbook on how to deliver ten short speeches about varrying topics, but now you can customize it and I think they use an online website/program to keep track of that.
Everything at a meeting is always explained to everyone, and everyone I've met at Toastmasters meetings have been very nice.
You can use the website (https://www.toastmasters.org) to find a meeting near you and usually just drop in, but it's always polite to give them a head's up that you'll be visiting.
Ididntdothis 5 hrs Totally agree. Toastmasters got me from barely being able to speak before a group to a point where I have no problems giving presentations before anybody. One of the best things I ever did in life.
city41 2 hrs I've found different Toastmaster groups operate a bit differently. Some are very strict (using clickers whenever you say "um" for example) and others not as much. So OP, if you do try Toastmasters, and the first group doesn't "feel" right, see if another nearby group is available.
pstuart 3 hrs Another CTM chiming in to say that Toastmasters should be one's first stop on this journey.
vkaku 4 hrs +1 for Toastmasters
Most times you can just attend a local chapter speech for free, and if you like it, you can sign up for a membership. There have been plenty of great tips on giving great speeches, and more importantly, this is all hands on!
And you can speak freely without worrying about sounding imperfect, and nobody judges you, because everyone out there want to learn and improve themselves.
southphillyman 4 hrs This. Have been attending meetings for about 2 months and have given 4-5 table topic speeches. Give my first prepared speech next week. Definitely can tell I'm getting better just by having to do it repeatedly.
Yhippa 6 hrs I've done this in various forms and I think this is one of the best methods to get better at public speaking. I recommend at least dropping in on a meeting to see how they're run. You'll be very impressed at how organized they are.
jasonlotito 4 hrs I just want to reinforce this. Toastmasters is where you want to go. The quality of the speakers is excellent, but more importantly, they are incredibly kind and understand to people who aren't great speakers. This is literally the answer I came here to find, and post it if it wasn't. Toastmasters 100%.
FillardMillmore 5 hrs Some have mentioned this, but it's true: jump at every opportunity you have to do any kind of public speaking gig - whether it's a 10 minute thing or a 2 hour thing.
This is what I've done - and though the first time is incredibly nerve-wracking, especially if it's a longer presentation, it only gets easier from that point on. But you do want to make sure that you know your material very well - the goal is to be as knowledgeable as possible of the topic on which you are speaking. Be prepared for questions.
Personally, I've found that presenting the topic to a friend or family beforehand helps immensely. Writing and reading your PowerPoint (or equivalent) is one thing, but learning how to transition naturally from point-to-point and from slide-to-slide is something else entirely. You'll also find, while presenting, mistakes that you didn't notice simply by reading through it and you can correct those mistakes before they serve to embarrass you publicly.
I recommend staying away from coffee before presentations and instead, drink an herbal caffeine-free tea to calm your nerves (chamomile works wonders for me).
nscalf 2 hrs I was not a very good public speaker (or general communicator), and it would make me feel uncomfortable having to have some normal conversations like ordering food. Nothing too severe, it didn't really interfere with my life, but it bothered me that it wasn't a very easy thing for me even though it was a daily part of my life. I think the most impactful way that I have improved this is sort of different from what a lot of people have recommended: Ask strangers how their day is going.
You're ordering a coffee? Well that barista has had a day, and you should ask them about it! It takes them a few seconds to ring you up, "I'll have a medium coffee, black, thanks! How has your day been?" People are usually very happy to be asked how their day is going, and you get the chance to practice small talk. After a while it feels natural, and you cheer up most of the people you interact with.
efm 32 mins Patrick Winston of MIT gave a good series of lectures on how to give a presentation: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL9F536001A3C605FC His explanation of why writing things on a board and slow pacing is helpful for your audience made sense to me.
DoreenMichele 2 hrs If you have any health issues, tend to those. Anxiety can be a side effect of things like blood sugar issues. Being physically healthier can help reduce the incidence of anxiety attacks.
It's generally useful to wonder what other people want or need. Most people spend a lot of their time in social settings worried about being judged by others, hurt in some way, etc.
If you are focused on putting others at ease, things will go smoother and then this success will help calm your nervousness and can lead to a positive feedback loop that goes good places.
I can be a ball of nerves, but other people have told me I don't look it. I have been told that's surprising news because I seem so calm.
That's probably in large part because I'm aware that my subjective experience of the thing and my performance aren't necessarily directly related and the important piece is performance.
(This comment is not comprehensive. I'm just hoping to add new thoughts not already covered by other comments.)
m1nes 6 hrs I talk for a living. It takes time to improve. Some quick and dirty tips (sorry, english not my first language):
Relax and meditate
Practice a LOT. Everyday. Even two minutes helps.
Learn to breath properly
Record yourself speaking aloud at home with your phone. Make notice of all the nuances of the voice
Prepare your material very well
Visualize you are explaining the stuff to a friend at home. It will help you sound more natural.
Getting nervous is normal and part of the game.
thomasjudge 3 hrs - Record yourself speaking aloud at home with your phone. Make notice of all the nuances of the voice
This. Better yet video yourself. REALLY painful but REALLY helpful.
marviel 3 hrs If you can find a supportive local improv troupe, that allows you to take classes, or has open "Jams" -- I would HIGHLY recommend taking said classes, or attending such jams. Learning how to perform improv (particularly, longform improv) has taught me a difficult-to-exhaustively-enumerate set of skills that are not limited to public speaking, such as:
Focused Observation / Listening (insanely important, this)
Ability to Deal with the Unexpected
Empathy / Emotional Intelligence
Negotiation (If you've played being on both sides of the table, you know what the other side wants)
Cooperation
Banter
Storytelling
Emotional Endurance
Interpersonal Relationship Creation and Maintenance
...
In addition to these skills, I've also found myself a lot happier, being able to engage in a creative activity within a supportive community which offers something completely novel each time I attend.
When I moved cities, I started a new improv troupe in that city, because it means that much to me.
Check it out. :)
linsomniac 46 mins A few thoughts, as someone who went from being deathly afraid of talking in front of the class in Junior High School, to presenting well over 100 times:
Just do it: Find opportunities to talk in front of people. Come up with things you know about, and find meetups or similar, and talk. Part of it is just getting familiar with it.
Watch other people do it: Find other presentations that have lots of views and/or that you enjoy watching, and figure out what you like about them. Then try to do a similar thing.
Figure out what you want to say: I've spent a lot of time talking impromptu. The talks I like the most, and the feedback I've gotten, has been refine your message and practice your presentation and pacing. The best talks I've seen really had their message refined.
clickme_zsh 1 hr I used to have anxiety attacks when I was in school, I had stage fright from my child hood, I avoided crowd, never participated in extra curricular activities unless it was forced or mandatory and even then I used to find reasons to skip it. I dreaded that I would stand out and become a laughing stock. But in my 8th grade one of my teachers pushed me to present a lot of projects regularly. At first I tried to find way out of them but slowly I got around the fear bit by bit and Now thankfully I am in a better position when it comes to presentation, talks and general speaking skills. I guess one can confront fear bit by bit and chew through the pain/trauma and build resistance. That's all just wanted to share my experience hope it helps.
blockcipher 4 hrs This doesn't actually answer your question as far as a pointer to resources, but here's some tips:
Take a breath before you begin speaking. Often I'd find that I'd start speaking too quickly and my voice wasn't "ready" which ends up making you sound squeaky or out of breath or just generally flustered. This tip also helps a bit with the tendency to speak way too fast.
If you have room to move around, don't be afraid to walk back and forth across the stage/platform/front of the room etc. Don't over-do it, but I find it's way easier for me to speak while I'm moving.
At least for myself, I've found that moments where I feel like I really stumbled over my words, or spoke too quietly/loudly, or "forgot a line", actually end up being very noticeable when I later watch the video recordings.
Public speaking is very opinionated and some people have some pretty pedantic rules. For example toastmasters is really aggressive about chiding you for using the word "umm". Now there's perhaps some truth to it - the role of a word like "umm" is to indicate that your brain is searching for what to say but still produce sound thus "holding your space" (so that no-one else cuts in), so in one sense I get why it's recommended against because when giving a talk there's no risk of someone cutting into you; your audience is captive (usually). However in another sense, "umm"-ing helps keep a certain rhythm/tempo to your speech which can actually help keep things smooth when you're searching for what to say.
Similar to the above, virtually every "rule" of public speech can be broken if you have the fundamental principles right. Barack Obama says "uhh" quite frequently, yet most people consider him charismatic. You could certainly argue that he's charismatic in spite of saying "uhh" rather than because of it, but in any case just remember not to miss the forest for the trees. Follow the principles - measured speech, don't be afraid to use space, try to talk more or less naturally - and you'll be a great public speaker.
Lastly, public speaking is a skill. It takes practice. If you can find a room to yourself, practice giving a talk a bunch, and make sure to record yourself. You'll likely be very surprised in the difference between your perception of yourself and how you actually come off, and having recorded videos is a great way to identify any tics/odd habits you have that you might want to work on.
sixhobbits 5 hrs I got a 2 month gig lecturing basic CS after finishing my degree. It was a pretty transformative experience - the first two lectures were among the worst experiences of my life! Panic in front of 200 people. After that it was fine.
Since then volunteered recently to speak at tech meetups, etc. Organizers are usually very happy to find more speakers! Still get the heart rate increase, sweaty palms, etc but apparently it no longer affects my speaking :)
Thriptic 3 hrs I have this problem as well. I have gotten around it in a few ways:
First, practice what you are going to say RIGOROUSLY. You should be able to recite your full speech / pitch / presentation / whatever with no use of visual aids. Basically, you should memorize it. I always assume that I will be ~20% worse while performing than while practicing, so if I can do the whole presentation without visual aids while practicing then the visual aids will be sufficient to save me if I get in trouble while presenting. Most people rely on their visual aids as a huge crutch during practice, and as a result they forget what they want to say and end up staring at their PowerPoint or notecards during the entire presentation as opposed to engaging with the audience. They come off as nervous and unprepared. Further, using your visual aids as a crutch incentivizes creating verbose slides as an insurance mechanism which is why most PowerPoints you see are shit.
Second, realize that public speaking is fundamentally about telling a story. A good story and a good presentation should share the same elements: they should be amusing and engaging (always work in some humor and audience interactions to engage the audience, many of whom probably don't want to be there and will fall asleep otherwise); they should be concise (don't go on tangents); key take aways should be clearly stated and there shouldn't be a data dump; there should be a natural flow and verbal transitions should be employed as if you were speaking to a friend; etc. Finally, know your audience. What do they care about / want to see? What do they already know? How can they be persuaded or amused?
Third, as other posters have mentioned, the only way to get better at this is to practice. Go find opportunities to practice. It only takes a few good presentations to shake the fear of being a bad presenter / acquire the rep of being a good presenter.
Finally, realize that the stakes are pretty low normally. Most of the presentations I sit through are awful (even those from C suite people who basically present for a living) and most people can't speak or convey information well. As such, I rarely remember when people bomb as bad performance is the norm.
mrskitch 2 hrs Not a big one, but one that I found helped a lot: cutting out the "filler" words ("like", "uh", "so"...). These fill words are used in many place to hold onto the listeners attention, but doing it too much can make your talk non-dynamic, and your audience will stop listening.
We have somewhat primal instincts that make us maintain focus on subtle things like body movement and differences in speech, or even lack thereof. So moving slowly from one spot to another, talking with your hands, and having gaps in your speech will help your audience naturally maintain focus.
Filler words are easy to remove: just practice not saying them when you're having conversations with the clerk at the store or your friends/family. You'd be surprised how effective it is, and how much more polished you'll sound.
clickme_zsh 1 hr With experience and some anxiety resistance filler words can be filtered out as you said. It does detract ones attention from the speaker and reduces the quality of the talk. It is a long process.
mrskitch 1 hr It's well worth the effort as it it will also pay dividends in the longer term. Speaking wo filler words in normal conversations (especially in the workplace) can help you immensely.
lcall 1 hr There is some good advice in this discussion. My own personal checklist for when I have to give a talk. Not perfect but it helps me: http://lukecall.net/e-9223372036854744342.html
(It is oriented for church but the steps would largely be the same elsewhere.)
soapdog 8 mins Hi,
I am a part of a program at Mozilla called Mozilla Tech Speakers and we help people to become better public speakers. By your message, I'm guessing that public speaking is not your focus buuuut we do have a lot of resources that might be helpful. You can find them at:
https://wiki.mozilla.org/TechSpeakers#Resources_for_Speakers
If I can give you a couple fly-by tips, I'd say:
Do not compare yourself with extroverted people. Speaking comes quite easy and naturally for some but that doesn't mean it should be like this for everyone. We're quite unique and what works for one person might not work for others. AS long as you're making progress, you're doing good and you're the only one who can decide what progress look like for you. Don't measure yourself using "other people rulers".
If you have a group of trusted friends that you could meet (online is fine) regularly, you could do an exercise that helps a lot, more about it at the end of this comment. This exercise is my favorite thing ever and the most useful thing in this comment to be honest.
Small meetups are a great place to start practicing talking to people. They are low pressure and low stakes. If you want, find a small meetup that you enjoy. Go for a while as a listener until you create some relationships there and feel safe. Then, when you want, try giving a small talk (5 min). It works quite well if there is someone you trust there and you can do this as a pair. Pairing with more experienced people makes talking easier (you both might want to practice together first).
So, back to the exercie and the actual very useful thing in this whole wall of text. It goes like this:
Find a group of trusted people. I think it needs to be a group of three people for this to be useful, in my mind the ideal group is five people.
Meet regularly, online or IRL. Whatever regularly means is up to you all.
Decide on a topic for the meeting before hand. It doesn't need to be tech, but it usually is. It is fun to do themes, for example Halloween topic.
Prepare a 2 minutes talk about that topic.
You'll take turns. One person will give their two minutes talk, others will listen.
Each of the listeners will then give their feedback and this is important because there is a structure to it. The feedback must be one of two kinds. The listener can either talk about what they liked from your talk or what they want to see/hear more about. There is not space for negative comments or criticism. You can only praise something or say what you want to see more about. It is this way so that it creates a safe space. People can talk without the fear of being criticized. It works better than providing "constructive criticism" because instead of prunning what you see as problems, you're steering the person towards what you see as strenghs, this is better for both you and them.
This exercise is done for all the Mozilla Tech Speakers cohorts, we've done this with hundreds of people and the same technique is used by Universities and courses on public speaking. It is a proven thing and has a name, but I forgot the name and anyway the content is more important than the name.
If your fear of speaking is related to potential live feedback from people, you might want to experiment with analog asynchronous forms of getting your opinions and content out like making zines. They can convey the same content but allow you to practice finding a voice, a style, and gain confidence in exposing your own ideas without the fear of live audience.
Hope this helped!
acak 3 hrs I'll give a shout out to Speeko! (I'm not affiliated with them in any way)
A testimonial (also unaffiliated): https://www.speeko.co/blog/beth-tucker-interview
la_fayette 4 hrs There is probably no shortcut to that skill. Try to find speaking opportunities on topics you know about, e.g. at meetups. It is better to start in front of a smaller group (10 people), from my experience nervosity is lower when in front of a smaller group. Record your talk and listen to it afterwards in detail and find things you want to improve. Don't hesitate to ask for feedback from others, and don't take it too personel. Try to be objective like you would train for a sports challenge.
Every public talk will improve your skillset a bit, so you need to just do it!
omarhaneef 6 hrs This is easy:
Prepare
Practice
Toastmasters (or similar group) is a good way to practice
Meetup groups will ask for speakers if toastmasters is not available
You could also record yourself, and revise
aklemm 6 hrs This is pretty much all there is to it. Perhaps study others closely as well.
bradam 2 hrs Although most of the advices focuses on specific techniques (which is very important to focus on), I want to emphasize something different: diet and lifestyle.
Without sounding too obvious, I can not recommend you enough reducing caffeine and alcohol use (if its a problem) and focusing on sporting regularly.
ken 1 hr An old friend of mine who was very comfortable with speaking told me it was acting that helped him. You get to practice saying someone else's words, until you're ready to use your own.
niklearnstodev 6 hrs This is a tricky one, because there are a few different facets or domains relevant to the topic. Two major ones that immediately come to mind are public speaking and conversational speaking.
I'm very good at conversational speaking, and I think that it mostly comes from listening to a ton of podcasts. This has helped me gain curiosity across a wide range of topics, but has also helped me learn how to dig into those topics via conversation. For this, pick topics you're interested in (perhaps some in fields that you're not fully interested in yet, to broaden your ability to converse across domains!). Also, while listening, look for traits that you admire in conversationalists, and try to practice them when speaking with others (this is a similar approach that can be used to learning anything, really).
As for public speaking, from what I've heard, Toastmasters is as good as it gets. They provide a learning and training environment. Then it's up to you to try it out "in production" (at work, weddings, etc).
Remember that it's a learning experience, and it will only get better with time via analysis, practice, and persistence!
danysdragons 4 hrs Are there any podcasts that you would especially recommend for building conversational prowess?
smars1245 5 hrs Propranolol (beta blocker) will help. It shuts down the fight or flight mechanism in your brain. It calms your voice, your heartbeat and your nerves. It's really amazing...
https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/2012/04/can-you-treat-st...
I pop 4-5 of this 1 hour before a big meeting or presentation. I've also used them at private gatherings when I'm speaking in front of a larger group. Works really well. Tell your DR about your public speaking fears and he/she will more than likely prescribe you a beta-blocker.
huangc10 5 hrs So to sum up your solution in one word, drugs. Nothing against it Propranolol but I just found it amusing drugs can almost be the solution to a lot of biological problems.
smars1245 4 hrs For most people, it's the fear and nervousness of public speaking that's the problem (not the content, knowledge, or skills of the presenter.) This fear can hold people back (it did for me). I'm sure Toastmasters would have the same impact (and I went to a few TM meetings) but I couldn't make it work with my other commitments. Propranolol is immediate and from a personal experience, it was extremely helpful for my career, confidence, etc.
huangc10 4 hrs All good, I get it. Like I said before, it makes sense and sometimes drugs is the solution. For ex. (since I've been watching a lot of baseball recently), Roman could be the go-to solution to ED. I just find it amusing that there is a drug to help with anything/everything.
smars1245 3 hrs I'm sure in our lifetime we will see CRISPR replacing drugs as the panacea to these "biological" issues.
wcip 3 hrs I found this YouTube channel yesterday and it appears helpful: https://www.youtube.com/user/charismaoncommand?itct=CCcQ6p4E...
hemmert 5 hrs This book is, Ole coached me for TEDx - after which my talk was uploaded also to TED.com:
https://www.amazon.de/Agile-Presentation-Design-innovators-p...
wrnr 4 hrs Practice it as much as possible, I stutter and developed selective mutism because of it. Speaking used to agonising to me but in my mid twenties I got cured of my stutter. Don't know how it happened, but one day I realised I hadn't stuttered in months while before I was anxious everytime I had to open my mouth. Now I have a bigger vocabulary than most, in part thanks to my avoidance strategies around certain words.
trilinearnz 25 mins I'm an effective public speaker and really enjoy it (especially the responses I get afterwards). Here are a few of my tips:
Rehearse your presentation enough beforehand (including immediately before in another meeting room if possible) such that you are able to run on auto-pilot after the first few minutes. Can't emphasise how crucial this is.
Conduct your presentation so you're speaking naturally about particular points, rather than trying to remember an exact script (the act of trying to remember what you are "supposed" to say may be causing you anxiety). If you have rehearsed enough, and know enough about your subject, it should be possible for you to do this.
Recognise that you might need to write a script to begin with, when preparing your presentation. This can help ground you, and gives you something to start from. Once you have rehearsed it a few times, you should start developing a "rhythm" that feels more natural to you, and this is when you can start "winging it" a bit more. There is nothing whatsoever wrong with bringing your script / notes with you on the day. This will give you a feeling of security (you have a backup in case you freeze). By the time the end of the presentation rolls around, you may find you never needed to unfold your notes at all.
You will always feel nervous in advance, to some degree. This degree is lessened with lots of prior rehearsal, but it will still be there. Accept it as normal, and don't think that because you're nervous you are destined to fail. After the first few minutes, that's when your "flow" will start kicking in, and things will begin to happen naturally.
When developing your presentation, try to empathise as much from the audience's perspective as possible / take a very skeptical view on your material. If you then convey your presentation in this manner, you will easily be able to get your audience on side with you. This helps you get to the "flow" state more quickly than if you are talking at odds to people, and they keep their wall up.
Hopefully you are presenting about something that you are interested in or passionate about, or at least know enough about to be confident. Let your energy and confidence out into your presentation style. Don't be afraid to use big gestures, and convey your passion in your voice. Think of it less as a recitation of a script, and more of a powerful and fun experience that your audience is being taken along with. Think of your presentation less in terms of merely conveying dry information, but to "entertain" your audience. Emphasise dramatic flair to create interest from your audience. This comes more easily to some people than others (I have a drama background). People respond really well to this if you can pull it off.
Information retention in your audience increases by a lot if you get them to participate in some way. This can be more than just the cliche'd "everyone raise their hand if you have heard of X". If you do this well, and empathise with your audience's reluctance to participate (e.g. say "now I know everybody just loves these audience participation activities! /s"), they can be a really nice break to the monotony of a presentation, and is another tool to get your audience on side with you.
The more punchy and interactive things you can do during your presentation to grab your audience's attention, the easier it will be for you. Rather than looking out at a sea of bored faces checking their cellphones, you will see everyone's eyes looking directly at you, and can feel the expectancy in the air. This is a very powerful state to be in, some people refer to it as "holding the audience in the palm of their hand". Good luck!
davio 5 hrs If your work will pay for it, I've had good results sending people to the Dale Carnegie course.
One of my engineers had almost crippling anxiety speaking in front of even small groups. After the course, she had the confidence to speak up and lead meetings.
vnglst 6 hrs It’s like doing software releases: if it hurts, do it more often.
So accept every opportunity you get to practice.
durnygbur 5 hrs Read a book loudly. Listen to audiobook or a language course and repeat simultaneously after the lector. Try doing these in different languages. Drink water while doing these.
JoshTriplett 6 hrs https://speaking.io/ has an extensive set of useful advice.
i00m 6 hrs I recommend this book: "it's not all about me" - robin dreeke
Digg_mov 1 hr duolingo.com
lowken10 6 hrs I transformed my life by participating in Toastmasters for about a year an a half. Here's the thing, to get good at something you need the following..
Toastmasters provides all four of these ingredients.
Ididntdothis 5 hrs “I transformed my life by participating in Toastmasters for about a year an a half. ”
Same here. The time investment is quite small compared to what you can get out of it. my main regret is that I didn’t learn about toastmasters when I was 18. My life could have gone quite differently.
科網股公布第三季業績，普遍較市場預期為佳，不只美國科網股，在美上市的中資科網股亦然。科網公司固然創意迸發，但同樣重要的，是中美均是十分巨大、具規模效應的市場。美國科網談了不少，今天不如說一下中資科網。
阿黃現在常駐內地，做生意全國跑，居無定所，唯有常吃外賣。不似香港，在內地叫外賣較堂食貴，還要加上20元（人民幣．下同）送餐費，且隨時等上半小時、一小時。
外賣App顛覆消費模式
在內地叫外賣，選擇非常多，幾乎所有餐廳都上線，甚至連火鍋也能速遞來。不單周圍1公里內的餐廳能送，遠至10公里以外的隨時也能送來，通常20分鐘內運到，且價格便宜得難以置信。
如【圖】示的賬單原本45元，但餐廳樂意做外賣，叫得多便有折扣，平台本身又有折扣，速遞費2元也不用，三餸一白飯送來也不用30元。
為何能做到？因為內地人口真的太多了，三四線城市人口向一二線城市湧，農村人口往三四線城市湧，提供源源不斷的廉價勞動力（阿黃學內地人叫外賣小哥做「救命」恩人），不似香港什麼都貴。這樣還有誰會煮飯？外賣平台把餐館和消費者緊緊聯繫起來，為社會創造多少價值？外賣網站改變了人們的消費模式，投資市場自會給予非常大的獎勵。
三四線城市網購發圍
阿黃不只跑一二線城市，三四線城市也要跑。許多生活用品忘了帶，又不知在哪裏買，如何是好？幸好還有網購。
近期內地網購平台紛紛下沉到三四線城市，過往一二線城市的4億人先享受了網購好處，現在全國其他地方的10億人也慢慢能享受到了。下沉市場的發展，不是讓上海人過巴黎人的生活，而是讓農村人能過上海人的生活。
阿黃在三四線城市，難道會期望買Prada、LV？他需要的不過是一些生活必需品。從前三四線城市居民想買也買不到，現在物流發達，也慢慢能過上好日子了。
世上最大的品牌是什麼？不是LV、Nike或Coca-Cola，而是White Box；便似買電腦般的，不少人買Dell、HP的電腦，但佔市場份額最多的其實是「白牌」（砌機）。
農村人民現在要的，是能用上原先在城市才有的日用品，牌子、質量都不是首要考慮。在「白牌」市場，價平就是道理，不是鼓勵假貨、次貨，城市人用10元買到價值10元的貨品，農村人用6元買到價值8元的產品，人們收到貨後心裏會抱怨，抑或開心還來不及？
暢銷降成本 良性循環
如果有網購平台，能不斷提供價值高於價格的貨品，消費者不反覆下單才怪。還是那一句，規模效應。平價但質素不錯的產品銷量起來後，規模效應讓生產成本再一次下降；成本下降提供減價空間，再次促進銷售增長，消費者和賣家兩蒙其利（還有網購平台）。你說內地網購是否還有許多可能？
替社會帶來的價值愈大，市場的獎勵便愈高。美國有許多上千億美元市值的科網企業，反觀內地也不乏具創意的科網企業，規模效應下，大概也會產出許多千億美元科網企業。
筆者為證監會9號業務持牌人
hcl.hkej@gmail.com
（編者按：郝承林最新著作《致富新世代3──你也可以的穩健發財派》現已發售）
歡迎訂購：實體書、電子書
data breach protection cybersecurity Skyrocketing data breaches bring incalculable losses to organizations and can cost cybersecurity executives their jobs. Here we examine the top five places in 2019 where cybercriminals are stealing corporate and government data without ever getting noticed and then learn how to avoid falling victim to unscrupulous attackers. 1. Misconfigured Cloud Storage 48% of all corporate data is stored in the cloud compared to 35% three years ago, according to a 2019 Global Cloud Security Study by cybersecurity company Thales that surveyed over 3,000 professionals across the globe. Contrastingly, only 32% of the organizations believe that protecting data in the cloud is their own responsibility, counting on cloud and IaaS providers to safeguard the data. Worse, 51% of the organizations do not use encryption or tokenization in the cloud. (ISC)² Cloud Security Report 2019 assets that 64% of cybersecurity professionals perceive data loss and leakage as the biggest risk associated with the cloud. Misuse of employee credentials and improper access controls are the top challenges for 42% of security professionals, while 34% struggle with compliance in the cloud, and 33% name lack of visibility into infrastructure security as their predominant concern. Negligent and careless third-parties are, however, probably the most hazardous pitfall that remains largely underestimated and thus disregarded. In 2019, Facebook, Microsoft, and Toyota were mercilessly stigmatized by the media for losing millions of customer records due to third-party leaks or breaches. Despite these alarming incidents, still few organizations have a well-thought, properly implemented, and continuously enforced third-party risk management program, most relying on paper-based questioners skipping practical verifications and continuous monitoring. How to mitigate: train your team, implement an organization-wide cloud security policy, continuously run discovery of public cloud storage to maintain an up2date inventory of your cloud infrastructure. 2. Dark Web Notorious Collection #1, revealed in 2019 by security expert Troy Hunt, is a set of email addresses and plaintext passwords totaling 2,692,818,238 rows. Anyone can anonymously purchase this data for Bitcoins without leaving a trace. Being one of the largest publicly known databases of stolen credentials, it is a mere slice of compromised data available for sale on Dark Web. Many organizations are hacked every day without being aware of this due to the complexity of the attacks or simple negligence, lack of resources or skills. Targeted password re-use attacks and spear phishing are simple to launch and do not require expensive 0day exploits. Although trivial at first glance, they may be piercingly efficient. Most organizations do not have a consistent password policy across their corporate resources, deploying SSO only to their central infrastructure. Secondary and auxiliary systems live their own lives, commonly with a poor or even missing password policy but with access to trade secrets and intellectual property. Given the multitude of such portals and resources, attackers meticulously try stolen credentials and eventually get what they seek. Importantly, such attacks are often technically undetectable due to insufficient monitoring or simply because they do not trigger usual anomalies just letting users in. Experienced hacking groups will carefully profile their victims before the attack to login from the same ISP sub-network and during the same hours outsmarting even the AI-enabled IDS systems underpinned by shrewd security analysts. How to mitigate: ensure digital assets visibility, implement holistic password policy and incident response plan, continuously monitor Dark Web and other resources for leaks and incidents. 3. Abandoned and Unprotected Websites According to 2019 research by a web security company ImmuniWeb, 97 out of 100 the world's largest banks have vulnerable websites and web applications. A wide spectrum of problems is attributed to uncontrolled usage of Open Source Software, outdated frameworks, and JS libraries, some of which contained exploitable vulnerabilities publicly known since 2011. The same report revealed that 25% of e-banking applications were not even protected with a Web Application Firewall (WAF). Eventually, 85% of applications failed GDPR compliance tests, 49% did not pass the PCI DSS test. In spite of the rise of Attack Surface Management (ASM) solutions, the majority of businesses incrementally struggle with the growing complexity and fluctuating intricacy of their external attack surfaces. Web applications dominate the list of abandoned or unknown assets being left by careless or overloaded developers. Demo and test releases rapidly proliferate across an organization, sporadically being connected to production databases with sensitive data. The next releases rapidly go live, while the previous ones remain in the wild for months. Understaffed security teams routinely have no time to track such rogue applications, relying on the security policies that half of the software engineers have never read. Even properly deployed web applications may be a time bomb if left unattended. Both Open Source and proprietary software make a buzz in Bugtraq with remarkable frequency bringing new and predominately easily-exploitable security flaws. With some exceptions, vendors are sluggish to release security patches compared to the speed of mass-hacking campaigns. Most popular CMS, such as WordPress or Drupal, are comparatively safe in their default installations, but the myriad of third-party plugins, themes, and extensions annihilate their security. How to mitigate: start with a free website security test for all your external-facing websites and continue with in-depth web penetration testing for the most critical web application and APIs. 4. Mobile Applications' Backends Modern businesses now generously invest in mobile application security, leveraging secure coding standards built into DevSecOps, SAST/DAST/IAST testing, and RASP protection enhanced with Vulnerability Correlation solutions. Sadly, most of these solutions tackle only the visible tip of the iceberg, leaving mobile application backend untested and unprotected. While most of the APIs used by the mobile application send or receive sensitive data, including confidential information, their privacy and security are widely forgotten or deprioritized, leading to unpardonable consequences. Likewise, large organizations commonly forget that previous versions of their mobile apps can be easily downloaded from the Internet and reverse-engineered. Such legacy applications are a true Klondike for hackers searching for abandoned and vulnerable APIs commonly still capable of providing access to an organization's crown jewels in an uncontrolled manner. Eventually, a great wealth of attacks become possible, from primitive but highly efficient brute-forcing to sophisticated authentication and authorization bypasses used for data scraping and theft. Usually, the most dangerous attacks, including SQL injections and RCEs, reside on the mobile backend side. Being unprotected even by a WAF, they are low-hanging fruit for pragmatic attackers. How to mitigate: build holistic API inventory, implement software testing policy, run a free mobile app security test on all your mobile apps and backends, conduct mobile penetration testing for critical ones. 5. Public Code Repositories Agile CI/CD practices are a great business enabler; however, if inadequately implemented, they swiftly morph into a disaster. Within this context, public code repositories are often the weakest link undermining organizational cybersecurity efforts. A recent example comes from the banking giant Scotiabank that reportedly stored highly sensitive data in publicly open and accessible GitHub repositories, exposing its internal source code, login credentials, and confidential access keys. Third-party software developers considerably exacerbate the situation in an attempt to provide the most competitive quote to unwitting and somewhat naïve customers. Cheap software is obviously not without substantial drawbacks, and poor security tops them. While few organizations manage to keep control over the software code quality and security by conducting automated scanning and a manual code review, virtually none are capable of monitoring how the source code is being stored and protected while the software is being developed and especially afterward. Human mistakes unsurprisingly predominate the space. Even exemplary organizations with mature and prof-tested security policies awkwardly slip because of human factors. Tough deadlines dictated by economic realities lead to overburdened and exhausted programmers who innocently forget to set a proper attribute on a newly created repository letting the troubles in. How to mitigate: implement a policy addressing code storage and access management, enforce it internally and for third-parties, continuously run public code repositories monitoring for leaks. Following this mitigation advice may save you countless sleepless nights and many millions for your organization. And lastly, do share information about Attack Surface Management (ASM) with your industry peers to enhance their security awareness and cybersecurity resilience. Have something to say about this article? Comment below or share it with us on Facebook, Twitter or our LinkedIn Group.
Hong Kong, 29 October, 2019 — Stan Group (Holdings) Limited (“Stan Group”) announced the launch of Buy-a-Brick, an innovative employee incentive and recognition programme that applies blockchain technology and real estate tokenization to enable Stan Group employees to generate wealth alongside Stan Group.
Committed to driving corporate innovation, Stan Group has pioneered the application of real estate tokenization to employee incentive and recognition. Buy-a-Brick is designed to motivate staff engagement in innovation, cultivate intrapreneurship and recognize staff for the efforts. Unlike other conventional revenue-sharing models, Buy-a-Brick provides employees with the opportunity to share the future capital gain of a building, without making any monetary contribution. A “Brick” is a digital token stored on the blockchain, which represents a smart contract for a selected building. By participating in Buy-a-Brick, if the property selected is sold and profit is made on the sale of that property, the brick holders will be entitled to share the profit made.
“We are thrilled to launch Buy-a-Brick for internal staff as it redefines staff appreciation. I believe every one of our staff members plays an integral role in the Group’s success and should be able to reap the reward and share the value created,” said Stan Tang, Chairman of Stan Group. “The launch of Buy-a-Brick has cemented the leading position of Stan Group in corporate innovation and entrepreneurship. Buy-a-Brick started with a dream, through matching the idea with resources within our business ecosystem, it is now a reality. I hope to ignite innovation and initiate change within and outside the Group, and shape a better future for entrepreneurs and all.”
Buy-a-Brick is the newest addition to the existing Stan Group credit system, where employees earn points with innovative business pitches, business referral, attending design thinking and other talent development workshops, etc. There are two types of points, namely Credit Point and Shared Value Point. With Credit Point, employees can redeem vouchers, hotel stay, and even an extra day off. On the other hand, the new Shared Value Points can be used to redeem a “Brick” at Buy-a-Brick.
黃之鋒被DQ，美國眾議院外交事務委員會主席恩格爾（Eliot Engel）在Twiiter說，「議員應由香港人自己選出，並不是中共所選。中國對『一國兩制』框架的侵蝕絕不能沒有後果」。他呼籲參議院盡快就《香港人權及民主法案》進行投票。
對中共來說，DQ黃之鋒的利弊太明顯，不需甚麼沙盤推演，對香港和國際影響都可以一早料到，但從北京的決策者以至香港的執行者，經多層的傳達，竟無一個「聰明人」看出或說出，包括那個宣稱年年考第一的人。
對此，只能以德國神學家潘霍華（Dietrich Bonhoeffer）的話來解釋：「愚蠢是一種道德上的缺陷。」道德缺陷包括只重權力，沒有正義與原則；只看一時的權力得失，不看稍遠一點的利害；只是一味迎合上級，完全不考慮盡一點規勸言責。
實際上這種只有從上而下的單一領導、而沒有其他制衡或智囊獻言的體制，就是極權政體永遠只考量利害、卻永遠走自殘之路的原因。自中共建政以來，從土改開始的所有政治運動，八九六四，習總稱帝，香港送中，所走之路都是權力至上，都是只考量利害，而結果也都是自我傷害。
三個月前，北京大學教授張千帆就香港問題建議說：「與其一再激化矛盾和對立情緒，不如在符合一國底線的前提下把屬於他們的政治權利還給他們。能在選票箱前心平氣和做到的事情，還會有誰動輒為之冒着酷暑，上街搖旗吶喊呢？」
從現實政治來看，在香港實現雙普選，真看不出會對中共造成甚麼損害。選出來的人會搞港獨嗎？會與中國分裂嗎？國際社會是接受一國兩制下的普選結果，還是會乘機煽動香港獨立？答案都很明顯。但北京不可能有這種智慧，從上到下的奴才也不會有人支持張千帆的建議。因為，「愚蠢是一種道德上的缺陷」。
香港抗爭者則相反。香港抗爭者雖居弱勢，雖缺財力權力甚或知識學歷，但如中世紀意大利詩人但丁所言：「道德常常能填補智慧的缺陷。」無論文宣、記者會應對、在國際社會發言，乃至作一首歌，都顯出道德填補智慧的出人意表的優秀。
香港抗爭者的靈活優秀，與掌權者的愚蠢顢頇，是這次運動的鮮明對照。
林鄭政權無所不用其極地加大鎮壓力度，勇武抗爭會不會得不到市民支持？民意會不會逆轉？示威者的抗暴是否會趨於式微？最新民調的答案是否定的。
香港民意研究計劃於本月17日至23日所作民調，結果顯示，林鄭月娥評分為20.2分，較本月中評分跌2.4分，支持率11%，反對率達82%，民望淨值負71個百分點，是上任以來及歷屆特首新低。市民對特區政府最新滿意率為10%，不滿率79%，滿意率為負69個百分點，是1997年有記錄以來新低。對政府信任率為23%、不信任率為68%，信任淨值負44個百分點，創1992年有記錄以來新低。
在這樣慘不忍睹的民望負淨值之下，繼續戀棧權力只能凸顯林鄭及其班子的厚顏無恥，塔西佗陷阱已經遍及所有施政。所謂塔西佗陷阱，即主政者無論如何發言或是處事，社會均會給予負面評價。
後天，全球有11個國家、共33個城市將集會聲援香港，而香港人也會同日在維園集會，向國際社會表明：「民意沒有逆轉、港人沒有妥協。」
曾任美國總統的列根（1981-1989在任），首次就職時說，政府如果不能解決弊端（問題），政府本身就有弊病（大意）；這恰似儒家經典《論語》云：「政者，正也」，「不能正其身，如正人何？」
「送中案」引發的社會抗爭，是官方闖下的大禍。官方應拿出有效的辦法，去解決宏觀層面的政治弊端，平息事件，修補社會撕裂，而非只靠催淚彈和口號，去等待「民意轉向」。
眾人尋真相 涉及知情權
拒絕設獨立調查委員會（COI, commission of inquiry，下稱調委會），是不能正視闖下大禍的弊端，暴露官方本身的弊病：應變能力弱、不能面對民意（對民眾質疑的事件躲躲閃閃），缺乏建立「光明磊落」（正其身）形象的動力。
設調委會，不僅是社會抗爭一方特別是和理派的訴求，也是社會精英階層普遍的願望。
早在6月下旬，監警會11名前委員，就建議設調委會。
7月上旬，終審法院前首席法官李國能登高一呼，也有調委會之議。
接下去，是沈祖堯教授領銜的「七一九聯署函」（聯署者有袁國勇、王維基等）；前政界人士王永平、苗學禮、吳靄儀的「七二三聲明」，大律師公會、香港總商會的函件，表達了設調委會的期望。
連關注香港局勢的外國精英階層，如德國大律師公會主席Edith Kindermann，也在10月發函，促請設調委會。
美國傳統基金會（智庫）的亞洲研究中心主任羅曼（Walter Lohman），對香港的獨立司法體系仍樂觀，他說「解決問題最關鍵的」是設調委會（自由亞洲電台2019．10．4）。
官方「九二六社區對話」獲發言權的30人，希望設調委會的超過四成。
官方一口回絕，說已有監警會的調查機制。
本欄8月29日文〈香港變相戒嚴 極權化壓自由〉，論及調委會不同於監警會，慨嘆「行政長官似未分清宏觀與微觀的層次，未接納民間善意的建議」。
具體而言，兩者的主要差異是：
一、監警會是針對警方的投訴機構，調委會並非只是針對警方，並不處理投訴個案，兩者並無職能的重疊；
二、調委會是宏觀層面的大輪廓調查、觀察、研究，超越於監警會的微觀層次和調查範圍，不處理微觀的個案。
宏觀五大類 提改善建議
調委會的調查、探討，旨在理清事實，揭開真相，回應民眾的知情權；也提出改善建議，包含緩解社會糾結的宏觀策略、政策取向，改善施政和執法素質，在《基本法》和「一國兩制」框架下保障自由、法治、人權和高度自治。
調查、探討的宏觀範圍，或可分為五大類。
第一，「送中案」引發社會抗爭的背景。梳理官方提出「送中案」的用意、偏失，引發的民意反應，行政、立法方面的得與失，衍生的經貿危機；
第二，社會抗爭各方（和理派、勇武派、街坊派）的興起和差異、共同訴求，街頭武鬥的暴力及社會、經濟的影響，有人一口咬定「外國勢力介入或操縱」，是否符合事實？
第三，官方應對社會抗爭的政策、得失，包括執法一方的得失。涉及是否濫權和用武過度、民眾對公權暴力泛濫的質疑，「七二一」和「八三一」事件的真相，民眾對「執法不公」和黑道介入的質疑，兩個事件使民意逆轉的因素；
第四，社會抗爭激化與長期的民怨積聚。檢討官方施政的偏失，涉及政治權力結構（如立法會結構）等，也探討經濟層面的得失，特別是稅制、單程證與貧富懸殊之弊；
第五，緩解社會糾結、尋求社會和解的政治構想、政策建議，涉及《基本法》提及的普選權（普及而平等的選舉權），官方應「爭取」早日實現的取態（向公眾交代路線圖、時間表）。
調委會的主要人選，應多選建制、泛民之外的第三方專業人士（特別是熟悉法律或執法者），與官場或商界的政經利益連結較少者。由李國能、梁定邦、李明逵共同主導調委會，是否較易為公眾接納？值得大家討論。
當然，不同政見者都應吸納進去。例如，立法會退位者前立法局主席黃宏發、曾鈺成、田北俊，法律、宗教、大學、醫護、新聞、文教、社工、學生、工商等界別和民間社會的代表；還有具代表性的年輕人，諸如利君雅（記者、南亞族裔）、吳思諾（大律師）、梁麗幗（律師樓從業者）。舉例式提出這些人名，是方便大家比較討論。
第三方人選 舉例式討論
官方如仍拒絕設調委會，或可成立民間的調委會（以眾籌方式籌集資金）。
官方一再拒絕設調委會，「九二六社區對話」後又無後續的對話，被民眾視為缺乏誠意，這是官方失人心的一大因素。
香港民意研究所10月29日公布的最新民調是：官方的民意支持度續下跌，已低至10%（5月下旬是27%）；行政長官的「支持淨值」，是負71%。
行政長官的「九四談話」，回應了社會抗爭的五大訴求，只答應第一訴求「撤回送中案」。如果現在能答應第二訴求設調委會，諒可緩和局勢，緩解和理派的對抗情緒。
美國聖母大學政治學教授許田波（Victoria Hui）接受美國之音訪問時說，設調委會「本是個雙贏的選項，但港府現在的選擇（按：指援引《緊急法》頒布《禁蒙面法》）只會令局勢惡化」（VOA 10．4）。設調委會是展示誠意、緩解民怨之善舉，官方竟棄之，奈何？
Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK] Price Analysis: Next Bullish Target is $95.93 By Abby Carey- October 28, 2019
Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK] is following downward trend in the market concluded with the last trading session. The shares of the Healthcare sector company has a current value of $80.73 after MRK shares went down by -1.86% during the last trading session. One of the reasons why Healthcare stocks may go bearish is decreased momentum in the press.
Merck & Co., Inc. [NYSE:MRK]: Analyst Rating and Earnings
Its stock price has been found in the range of 68.88 to 87.35. This is compared to its latest closing price of $82.26.
Keep an eye out for the next scheduled publication date for this company’s financial results, which are expected to be released on Tomorrow Before Market Open (Confirmed).
Fundamental Analysis of Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK]
Now let’s turn to look at profitability: with a current Operating Margin for Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK] sitting at +23.02 and its Gross Margin at +69.22, this company’s Net Margin is now 21.10%. These measurements indicate that Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK] is generating considerably more profit, after expenses are accounted for, compared to its market peers.
This company’s Return on Total Capital is 17.61, and its Return on Invested Capital has reached 11.70%. Its Return on Equity is 20.38, and its Return on Assets is 7.30. These metrics all suggest that Merck & Co., Inc. is doing well at using the money it earns to generate returns.
Turning to investigate this organization’s capital structure, Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK] has generated a Total Debt to Total Equity ratio of 94.06. Similarly, its Total Debt to Total Capital is 48.47, while its Total Debt to Total Assets stands at 30.39. Looking toward the future, this publicly-traded company’s Long-Term Debt to Equity is 12.66, and its Long-Term Debt to Total Capital is 74.18.
What about valuation? This company’s Enterprise Value to EBITDA is 15.87 and its Total Debt to EBITDA Value is 1.76. The Enterprise Value to Sales for this firm is now 5.13, and its Total Debt to Enterprise Value stands at 0.11. Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK] has a Price to Book Ratio of 7.42, a Price to Cash Flow Ratio of 18.74 and P/E Ratio of 22.67. These metrics show that this company has a mixed appeal, and ROI could be a gain or a loss.
Shifting the focus to workforce efficiency, Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK] earns $615,159 for each employee under its payroll. Similarly, this company’s Receivables Turnover is 6.09 and its Total Asset Turnover is 0.50. This publicly-traded organization’s liquidity data is also interesting: its Quick Ratio is 0.92 and its Current Ratio is 1.17. This company, considering these metrics, has a healthy ratio between its short-term liquid assets and its short-term liabilities, making it a less risky investment.
Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK] has 2.56B shares outstanding, amounting to a total market cap of $210.62B. Its stock price has been found in the range of 68.88 to 87.35. At its current price, it has moved down by -7.58% from its 52-week high, and it has moved up 17.20% from its 52-week low.
This stock’s Beta value is currently 0.54, which indicates that it is 1.85% more volatile that the wider market. This stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37.65. This RSI score is good, suggesting this stock is neither overbought or oversold.
Conclusion: Is Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK] a Reliable Buy?
Shares of Merck & Co., Inc. [MRK], overall, appear to be a solid investment option, with Wall Street analysts expecting its price to rise considerably in the next 12 months. This company generates high value from the labor resources and other capital it has available, and while it has heavy Long-Term Debt to Equity, the majority of the metrics point to this investment being highly attractive.
香港運動持續至今，不少朋友不斷問：「然後呢？」然後，負面情緒就開始出現。畢竟在主流媒體，現實主義論述最深入民心：中國國力強大，香港人無力抗衡，外國勢力也不會真的幫忙，假如港人再不「散水」、繼續抗爭，北京完全可以犧牲香港，推出更多高壓，邁向一國一制，來維持國家穩定。梁文道先生的文章〈結局之路由此開始〉備受討論，可謂箇中代表。
與此同時，不少溫和建制派則憧憬另一個「結局路線圖」， 希望為自己退休前的收成期buytime。他們相信北京權衡輕重後，會對「五大訴求」作出一系列讓步：林鄭月娥下台，新特首成立不完全的獨立調查委員會，有限度特赦雙方，部分越線警察（如光頭劉sir）被割席祭旗，重啟政改；由於這些依然不能解決真正問題，當局同時也會加速「鬥地主」，以房屋問題轉移視線，加強輸入新移民和內地專才，推廣國民教育、信用評級，施展「暗黑兵法」在民間挑撥矛盾、內鬥，令有心人心灰意冷，放任傳統精英移民離開，期望盡快換血、「留島不留人」，到了「換血」成功，真普選就迎刃而解。
對真香港人而言，以上結局都是悲劇，分別只是急性還是慢性而已；但由於上述分析看似不能撼動，不少人都有強烈無力感。然而，難道現實主義框架無懈可擊？世界日新月異，每一套範式都會因為時代進步，而被修正。以共產主義為例，曾幾何時，不少左翼知識分子都真心信奉，他們後來覺醒，除了眼見共產政權出現種種問題，還因為理論不能與時並進：心理學量化論證了人類不可能接受完全共產，而量子力學對世界存在隨機的假設，又根本顛覆了馬克思主義對結構的教條演繹。
經過過去數年觀察，坦白說，自己對世界的認知，也改變了很多。認為目前運動是通往悲觀「結局之路」的前輩，大多以現實主義為背景，忽略了近年世界各地，都已經出現了廣義的「時代革命」。當然，這不是說香港人的訴求明天、明年或後年就能達成，但「結局之路」要成功，只怕更困難。那香港人究竟希望什麼？每人心底深處的訴求並不一樣，但從反《逃犯條例》修訂的初心可見，無論形式如何，鞏固中港兩制之間的防火牆、減低北京和國家資本對香港內部事務和日常生活的不合理干預，可謂最大公約數。2016年開始，世界出現連串「黑天鵝」，昔日理所當然的立論，例如另類候選人不可能當選、全球化不可能逆轉，都已被顛覆。真香港人為什麼有堅持到底的理由？我們且看這6點趨勢：
（1）由大數據、演算法主導的互聯網3.0，雖然被利用作威權管治，但同時也催生脫離威權政府的新經濟體；某程度上，這是比《基本法》賦予更有意義的高度自治。網絡的去中介化現象，已經取代傳統產業，充權了無數新生代成為slashers；他們的權力架構，只需回應點對點需求的另一端，通過科技，連結成整體，例如現在正催生的「黃店網絡」、人力資源互助網絡，再連結海外同路人，配合自己的加密貨幣獨立交易，減低直接賦予政府的稅收，就能大幅減低對失信於民、僵化建制的依賴。假如參與遊行的200萬香港人為「泛黃」基本盤，無論他們對目前街頭衝擊態度為何，只要平均每人每年願意付出2萬元支持同路人（包括現金，也包括勞力），這就是400億的龐大經費，再加上海外港人捐獻，已經是中上規模的世界級經濟體，甚至逐漸出現淡馬錫那樣的香港人基金，亦未可知。
（2）傳統現實主義認為，理想必須服膺現實；但目前科技除了令理想化作現實，還改變了對「現實」的認知。昔日我們還是相信存在非黑即白的事實，但隨着5G出現、Deepfake普及，每人都深信自己懂得「事實」，不會有意識離開自己的安全網。商業主導的演算法永遠有利兩極思維，國民教育一類舉措只會出現反效果，而有了全國「小粉紅」，香港身分認同只會堅如磐石。對講求意念戰勝強大對手的運動而言，新科技是重要推手；當新世代每一刻都與智能手機共存亡，那才是他們的靈魂，對理念堅持的持久力，超乎昔日想像。
（3）現實主義的unit actor只有主權國家，「香港人」作為一個玩家，被認為不入流。但隨着全球化催生愈來愈有實力的非國家個體（nonstateactors, NSA），國際棋局早已變得立體；香港人的國際對口單位，不是北京或華府，而是世界各地不同NSA。各國政府支持港人，自然受制於大國博弈的局限，但美國政府畢竟控制不了facebook、NBA；至於全球企業，縱然受制於中國龐大市場威迫利誘的「sharp power」，但也不像國泰那樣沒有議價空間，而且也受制於工會、NGO等NSA。香港人只要懂得「NSA外交」，在全球層面，盟友無窮無盡。就像香港最有國際視野的企業長和系，早在「一帶一路」推出前數十年，就鎖定投資全球港口，這樣的視野，正是真香港人的強項。
（4）香港人身分認同經過這場運動，急速強化，而且已成功輻射到海外。和中國強調以血統定義的愛國不同，香港身分認同是「大熔爐」，由一系列核心價值定義。從前我們覺得「香港核心價值」很虛，但經過這場運動，真香港人意識到已置身文明衝突的斷層，只要想想自己是否接受內地的信用評級系統、是否支持六四事件以開槍解決政治問題（或靠香港警察對政治問題「止暴制亂」）、是否認同新疆再教育營打壓文化多元，就很清楚什麼是香港核心價值。這套價值觀的融合力是驚人的，香港回歸22年，累積新移民極多，然而民情不但未有根本改變，還比回歸前更抗拒中國，連新一代本土派領袖梁天琦也是新移民，南亞裔等少數族裔同樣以身為香港人自豪。更甚者，香港核心價值很容易得到外國人支持，所以「香港人」並非只有700萬的絕對少數。一旦海外香港社群結成整體，在不同地方出現小香港，或參考我們介紹過的chartered city，這會不同於唐人街大媽的內向型退休樂園，變成配合核心價值論述、融合不同族群友人、輔以真正產業的全球社群，令「香港」遍地開花，母體這個香港特區也會有更多槓桿，屆時再也沒有「移民」與「非移民」的概念。
（5）現實主義相信大國憑經濟資源影響一切，但目前世界經濟早已脫離了資源年代，例如各國都以量化寬鬆延緩危機，結果從傳統工作得到的薪金增幅，永不能追上實體資產的價格增值，而且這個鴻溝愈來愈大。這就造成幾個全球後遺症：一方面，像香港政治問題那樣，永不可能以經濟手段解決；另一方面，在無限QE時代，即使全民就業、全民上樓，貧富懸殊，卻依然是不可逆轉的大趨勢，令永遠有一半以上人口觀感上認為自己是時代輸家，進一步加強了兩極化，也就是連經濟問題也不可能經濟解決，所以美國、英國、智利的群眾運動，都是異曲同工。政權要維穩，鬥地主、土改只是幌子，最後始終要釋放建基於真正自由、免於白色恐怖的創造力，才能減低「觀感輸家」的反作用力，例如北歐正嘗試以人工智能維持基本經濟運作，賦予人民無償工作收入（UBI），釋放機械不能取代的創造力。否則到了發展瓶頸，政治、經濟問題同步發酵的政權，可能出現難以想像的危機；而這方面看，香港的長遠韌力，其實不一定不及內地。
（6）梁文道認為：「儘管所有人都曉得，香港特殊的國際地位對整個中國而言極端重要。但是我兩年前仍然在此大膽推測，終有一天，從北京的角度來看，這道門戶其實是可以合起來的」；但世界正式進入新冷戰，這道門戶要「合起來」，代價比兩年前只會更大。香港作為一個對中國非常有用的融資、洗錢、協助國產「走出去」的金融窗口，又有國際社會認受其兩制，本來就不易取代；當反華逐漸成為美國跨黨派共識，一旦選上列根那類意識形態主導的領袖，而不是做deal的特朗普，很容易作出打散「中美經濟共同體」的決定。由於各國經濟在全球化時代相互依賴已深，不同於舊冷戰壁壘分明，絕對分家是不可能的，香港這窗口的重要性，奇貨將更可居。北京也明白不能完全複製香港，國策是以上海、深圳、澳門等局部取代之，再依靠「一帶一路」海外港口取代另一部分。假如有50年時間，也許未嘗不可，但新冷戰下，卻時不我予。說白點，就算北京有一天研判香港失控、連解放軍也出動，希望掏空其內涵，也難以放棄「一國兩制」這副招牌；而一天北京需要香港的國際身分，無論怎樣收緊，以真香港人的智慧，依然充滿迴旋空間。
無論香港未來特首是誰、街上衝突如何、特朗普或Solomon Yue明天Twitter說什麼，經過這場運動，香港已經結構性的不一樣；任何有違真香港人認知的一國兩制大小危機，也必然會觸發抗爭；但真正的root cause就像佛地魔，權貴根本不敢去談。由於上述「時代革命」修正了現實主義的缺陷，真香港人只要毋忘初心、本土和勇合一、海內外香港人也合一，把握大趨勢，足以學習毛主席的智慧，進行一場持久戰。變幻原是永恆，然後，「然後呢」這個消極問題，會成為充滿積極的探索；而每一個有價值的探索，總會伴隨新一代希望的曙光
在各種應用環境中，報導提到了要推動區塊鏈和實體經濟深度融合，解決中小企業貸款融資難、銀行風控難、部門監管難等問題；積極推動區塊鏈技術在教育、就業、養老、精準脫貧、醫療健康、商品防偽、食品安全、公益、社會救助等民生領域的應用。
國務院發展研究中心助理研究員高敏26日撰文指出「鏈是鏈，幣是幣，兩者有關連，但並不一樣」，區塊鏈更側重底層基礎設施的建設。他說，政治局的這場會議代表政府將提供政策和資金支持，「甚至國家級的數位貨幣也將公布」。
中共中央政法委員會微信公眾號「長安劍」27日發文指出，全球主要國家都在加快佈局區塊鏈技術發展，習近平總書記的重要講話意味着中國將全面加入這項新興網際網絡技術的國際競爭中去，打響了比賽的發令槍，說明中國在區塊鏈競爭領域的目標，就是爭奪第一。
文章說，這項技術透過去中心化分佈式儲存，帶來公開與透明，可以讓數據產生價值，資訊的不可篡改和可追溯性也帶來安全和誠信，因此，區塊鏈的價值不是「炒」出來的。
去中心化的分佈式儲存帶來公開與透明，也讓數據直接產生價值；信息的不可篡改、可追溯性帶來了安全與誠實，也讓人與人之間變得更加互信。當前全球網際網路發展正從信息科技時代過度到數字科技時代，「數據為王」不僅是一個口號，更成為一種共識。區塊鏈技術提供了一種全新的數據組織和應用模式，對「價值網際網絡」、「誠信網際網絡」的建設，具有基礎性的地位。
區塊鏈技術可以使每個人在區塊鏈網路中建立自己的誠信節點，一旦有人作惡，將會受到來自智能合約和法律的雙重懲罰，久而久之，在利益和價值的引導以及技術和制度的制約下，潛移默化中人們都會把維護信用當成一種習慣，最終會重塑整個社會的價值誠信體系。
在商業應用之外，政務結合區塊鏈也受到關注。財經媒體微信公眾號「吳曉波頻道」27日的文章引述商務部CECBC區塊鏈專委會副主任吳桐說，區塊鏈和政務系統的融合有重要意義，「不僅不會去中心化，還會通過信息集成化等渠道提高政府的宏觀調控能力」。
他並表示，區塊鏈不會成為監管外之物，而會成為監管的牙齒和新的治理工具。
文章也引述如是金融研究院研究員張楠表示，目前中國區塊鏈行業內魚龍混雜，「可以說騙子佔了一大半」，如何正確利用區塊鏈技術是個大挑戰，否則可能會重蹈P2P的覆轍。
在我們的年代，小學作文「我的志願」，固然沒有同學寫下廚師這職業，到了中學，父母日夜期盼子女將來會是醫生、律師或工程師。沒機會讀大學的，希望進修一點甚麼以便投考白領工作，或政府部門。聽過冷門一點的志願如明星、髮型師、司機、花王，唯獨是未聽過「我想入廚房」這句說話。Gordon Ramsay 1966出生，志願是職業球員，少時在球隊訓練，兼職在社區內的印度餐廳洗煲。後來弄傷膝蓋，才無厘頭如他自己形容「在完全的一個意外」下做了伙頭。曾是多年世界第一的西班牙El Bulli大廚Ferran Adria，年青時想出國旅行，父母應允，條件是自己賺夠旅費，他於是去了餐廳洗碗。後來加入軍隊，因為算是見過廚房，於是被派去當廚子，此是他入行經過。便算是Alain Passard及Alain Ducasse，十六、十七歲入廚房做學徒，泰半是為了生活，與興趣無關，最終他們把神功練成，變為超級巨星，是後話。
我們做餐廳的，要考慮接班問題，追蹤新一代廚師，理解他們的想法，成為我的工作一部份。這半年造訪了泰國的Paste、Gaa、Sorn、Le Du；台灣的Mume、態芮；韓國的Mingles、Toc Toc、Joo Ok，皆是近年冒起的米芝蓮及亞洲五十強餐廳，由年青廚師主理。印象最深刻的有三間，Mingles每年吃一次，每次在進步，已經到了「非常挑剔的客人也不會失望」的狀態；Mume這次是「很輕鬆很自由不太用力卻又十分好味」的破繭而出；而Sorn，忠於家族味道，「我的南泰國菜很傳統又可以很有型」令人眼前一亮。其他的餐廳亦不拘一格，各有特色。近年新舊交替換血之快，縱然我好食不懶飛，也有點追不上。
與這些八十後名廚們傾談，發現與我們這一代的最大的分別是，他們本來的志願，便是我要做廚師！每一位都是擲地有聲地如是說。我信，因為細看背景，有跡可尋，騙不得人。有一些大學讀了專科，後來愛上食物，改行深造廚藝，如Mume的Richie；另一些幼承庭訓，一心一意入廚房，如Sorn的Khun Ice等。出發點不同，便有相應的結構性改變。以前的廚師們，可能工作了一段時間，功夫有一定基礎，才把興趣培養出來。現在的廚師，未入行已經有一顆熾熱的心，目標清晰。Gordon Ramsay及Ferran Adria甘於由洗煲做起，然後按着師傅的食譜慢慢學習。年青廚師等不及，因為這是他們的理想，自然希望愈早創出自己風格愈好，愈早成名愈好。周遊列國，在不同餐廳實習，與其他廚師做四手交流，晚上在互聯網與食客及同行討論、推廣、比較、聯繫，他們便如一塊海綿，任由知識及資訊無限量灌入，這種狀態與我們年代的廚師，有極大分別。壞處是，搞不好會消化不良，未學行先學走，把所有時興的炒成一碟，這情況我遇過不少，沒辦法把晚飯完成。好處是，有天分的，經過沉澱思考，快速成長，開花結果，結出個人味道。舉一個例子大家立即明白，以前去巴黎，吃上三餐傳統法國菜之後，菜式相近，享受程度會迅速下降，現在去巴黎，吃了十天，天天新款日日驚喜，因為年輕伙頭除了吃味道，還可以吃性格、吃想法，光譜濶了，感覺更有趣。
香港當然有值得我們驕傲的新一代廚師，Belon的Daniel，Vea的Vicky，Happy Paradise的May Chow，他們都是懷着「我要做廚師」的志願入行，一直在努力，燃燒着源源不絕的熱情，豐富着香港的口味。他們工作的地方既在廚房亦在雲端，成功把食物與網絡連結，推向國際舞台。其實很好玩，亦可以很有型，更不用放下你們相熟的手機及IG，各位同學，會否考慮在志願這一欄，填下廚師二字？
在我們的年代，小學作文「我的志願」，固然沒有同學寫下廚師這職業，到了中學，父母日夜期盼子女將來會是醫生、律師或工程師。沒機會讀大學的，希望進修一點甚麼以便投考白領工作，或政府部門。聽過冷門一點的志願如明星、髮型師、司機、花王，唯獨是未聽過「我想入廚房」這句說話。Gordon Ramsay 1966出生，志願是職業球員，少時在球隊訓練，兼職在社區內的印度餐廳洗煲。後來弄傷膝蓋，才無厘頭如他自己形容「在完全的一個意外」下做了伙頭。曾是多年世界第一的西班牙El Bulli大廚Ferran Adria，年青時想出國旅行，父母應允，條件是自己賺夠旅費，他於是去了餐廳洗碗。後來加入軍隊，因為算是見過廚房，於是被派去當廚子，此是他入行經過。便算是Alain Passard及Alain Ducasse，十六、十七歲入廚房做學徒，泰半是為了生活，與興趣無關，最終他們把神功練成，變為超級巨星，是後話。
我們做餐廳的，要考慮接班問題，追蹤新一代廚師，理解他們的想法，成為我的工作一部份。這半年造訪了泰國的Paste、Gaa、Sorn、Le Du；台灣的Mume、態芮；韓國的Mingles、Toc Toc、Joo Ok，皆是近年冒起的米芝蓮及亞洲五十強餐廳，由年青廚師主理。印象最深刻的有三間，Mingles每年吃一次，每次在進步，已經到了「非常挑剔的客人也不會失望」的狀態；Mume這次是「很輕鬆很自由不太用力卻又十分好味」的破繭而出；而Sorn，忠於家族味道，「我的南泰國菜很傳統又可以很有型」令人眼前一亮。其他的餐廳亦不拘一格，各有特色。近年新舊交替換血之快，縱然我好食不懶飛，也有點追不上。
與這些八十後名廚們傾談，發現與我們這一代的最大的分別是，他們本來的志願，便是我要做廚師！每一位都是擲地有聲地如是說。我信，因為細看背景，有跡可尋，騙不得人。有一些大學讀了專科，後來愛上食物，改行深造廚藝，如Mume的Richie；另一些幼承庭訓，一心一意入廚房，如Sorn的Khun Ice等。出發點不同，便有相應的結構性改變。以前的廚師們，可能工作了一段時間，功夫有一定基礎，才把興趣培養出來。現在的廚師，未入行已經有一顆熾熱的心，目標清晰。Gordon Ramsay及Ferran Adria甘於由洗煲做起，然後按着師傅的食譜慢慢學習。年青廚師等不及，因為這是他們的理想，自然希望愈早創出自己風格愈好，愈早成名愈好。周遊列國，在不同餐廳實習，與其他廚師做四手交流，晚上在互聯網與食客及同行討論、推廣、比較、聯繫，他們便如一塊海綿，任由知識及資訊無限量灌入，這種狀態與我們年代的廚師，有極大分別。壞處是，搞不好會消化不良，未學行先學走，把所有時興的炒成一碟，這情況我遇過不少，沒辦法把晚飯完成。好處是，有天分的，經過沉澱思考，快速成長，開花結果，結出個人味道。舉一個例子大家立即明白，以前去巴黎，吃上三餐傳統法國菜之後，菜式相近，享受程度會迅速下降，現在去巴黎，吃了十天，天天新款日日驚喜，因為年輕伙頭除了吃味道，還可以吃性格、吃想法，光譜濶了，感覺更有趣。
香港當然有值得我們驕傲的新一代廚師，Belon的Daniel，Vea的Vicky，Happy Paradise的May Chow，他們都是懷着「我要做廚師」的志願入行，一直在努力，燃燒着源源不絕的熱情，豐富着香港的口味。他們工作的地方既在廚房亦在雲端，成功把食物與網絡連結，推向國際舞台。其實很好玩，亦可以很有型，更不用放下你們相熟的手機及IG，各位同學，會否考慮在志願這一欄，填下廚師二字？
實體店要付舖租，若扣除燈油火蠟，生意一天都不能少。不過，若開辦網店，配合直播元素，一個月只做4天，就足以收支平衡，營業額更可達7位數。《信報》StartUpBeat今次請來女鞋國創辦人陳胤華，分享他如何利用直播，針對港人穿着需要，不斷改良產品質素，在逆市中突圍。
主持：（朱）朱美俞 《信報》科技記者
嘉賓：（陳）陳胤華 女鞋國創辦人
朱： 當初為何有志投身網紅界？坊間有傳，憑直播月賺百萬元，是否確有其事？
陳： 早年我曾經營實體店，當時每天都要為員工薪金等各項開支憂心；若營業額無法達標，少不免要催促員工跑數；作為創辦人，壓力很大。隨着網購熱潮興起，實體店生意好景不常，終致結業。其後，我曾為一位內地網紅打工，專責鞋履採購方面的工作。眼見她於每月指定一天，只是簡單直播了14秒，就快速做成800萬元人民幣（約888萬港元）生意額。於是，我把這銷售模式帶至本港，並於2017年創辦女鞋國。
公司現為客人提供一站式服務，每逢星期五定期直播，跟粉絲互動聯繫，同時推廣最新鞋款。現時，我平均每個月直播4天，營業額就足以達標；高峰期曾試過只直播一天，就賺取逾百萬港元收入。
有提問即回應加強互動
朱： 直播營銷及累積客源方面，你採用什麼策略？
陳： 坦白說，有別於其他網紅，我認為自己是實幹型，一般甚少於直播中描述鞋款有多漂亮，反從產品設計構思、材料、工藝等技術層面，向粉絲逐一講解；另引入模特兒在鏡頭前走貓步（Catwalk），描述穿着後的感覺，並分析有何種腳型，適合穿什麼鞋履等。
在直播期間，因專頁粉絲留言較多，我若看到有疑問或查詢，就立刻回應，藉此加強互動。鏡頭以外，我亦跟粉絲私下交流，了解她們對鞋履款式、類型、穿着場合等需求；針對有關需要，我再跟設計團隊協作，其後吩咐工廠生產貨品。累積客源方面，除顧客關係之外，公司重視產品品質，以口碑吸引客人再次選購。相比起大型品牌，對方一般以數位設計師，預估時裝界明年流行的鞋款；若從主觀角度生產鞋履，未必瞄準客人真正需要；相反，透過設計、採購、生產、銷售方式營運，更能提升用戶體驗。
舉例，坊間高價的歐洲鞋款，其產品主要針對歐洲人腳型，而港人腳掌偏闊，穿後未必舒適。我們花了不少心思，改良鞋頭設計，再把材料升級，使款式符合港人腳型。
質量控制方面，公司設立專屬團隊，並夥拍一線工廠，最高標準檢測各項貨品；若不達標，就不允許過關，確保質素。
收割日觀眾秒搶心頭好
朱： 中港網紅直播營銷，你有何看法，如何營造口碑？
陳： 本地網紅直播營銷時，一般配合廣告商贊助，以推廣產品賺取收益；主要靠粉絲基數，吸引網上瀏覽，達致宣傳效果；另亦有本地網紅，通過直播宣傳代購產品。
本地自家的直播購物平台，我印象中寥寥可數。相反，內地流行網紅帶貨熱潮，即使非頂級網紅亦能透過「種草」手法（網絡熱詞，指「宣傳某種商品的優異品質以誘人購買」），創造每月數以百萬計生意額。
內地受眾較廣，有人追求廉價貨品，有人追求品質，有些純粹喜歡該網紅，因追星心態，網紅說什麼都會買，造成林林總總的直銷貨物，能於短短十多秒成為搶手貨。
在直播上架前，網紅會跟粉絲分享日常生活或一些將會上架產品的詳細介紹。我們稱之為「種草」，在顧客心裏散播想法；然後，約定在特定日子，一次過推出所有「草」，供顧客收割，那天叫做收割日。
觀眾最期待在種草過程中，看中的心儀產品上架。其實她們就是等待那刻，想買到心頭好。因為所有貨品，公司都設立訂購量。當粉絲稍慢了一分數十秒，老實說，真的會搶購失敗。她們要再等下一個月。
商場千篇一律欠特色
朱： 現時大型網購平台是否你們的競爭對手？本地零售生意下跌，網購是否未來大趨勢？
陳： 作為初創，我們沒有視大型網購平台為競爭對手。公司現專注本港及澳門業務，而且兩者消費群不同。據我所知，不少港人網上購物，亦會考慮內地電商平台；若只看網民評價，「中伏」機會較大。因有關平台規模較大，商家、產品質素好壞參半，變相消費者必須學懂如何篩選較好質量的商品。
在創辦「女鞋國」之前，我看到本港商場雖多，惟各區商舖、模式幾乎一樣；對消費者而言，若要選購小眾產品，網店選擇較多。此外，香港電視（01137）主席王維基打破了傳統想法，在本地網購上發揮了帶頭作用；加上現時社會氣氛，實體店生意欠佳，我相信，本港網購熱潮未來必定更強勁。
註：以上嘉賓訪問均屬個人意見，與本報立場無關。
讀者可能注意到美國華盛頓特區呈現異象，筆者不是指白宮或國會山莊出現怪事，而是聯儲局政策實在不尋常。在不足一年間，聯儲局加息又減息，縮表後重啟擴表，注入流動性，然後把它抽走，無人知道聯儲局的葫蘆裏賣什麼藥。筆者認為，目前至低限度處於經濟轉捩點，所以聯儲局必須「執生」，隨着事態發展，不斷修改政策。
法國政治經濟學家巴斯夏（Frédéric Bastiat）在1850年發表經典作《看得見與看不見的經濟效應》（That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Not Seen），書中指出，在經濟領域，單一行動、習慣、制度與法律可能不只產生一種效應，而是一連串。在這些效應中，最早出現的應屬即時性，跟其成因同時發生，屬於看得見。其他效應隨後才顯現，往往看不見，如果能預見這些看不見的效應，就三生有幸。
巴斯夏又說，經濟學家是好是壞，兩者只有一點分別；糟糕的經濟學家只注意看得見的效應，一流的經濟學家同時考慮看得見及能預見的情況。雖然兩者只有一點分別，但差別可大。前者往往為了追求微小的近利，忽略日後可能引發的巨大災難，後者為了追求日後的巨大利益，敢於承擔眼前可見的小小風險。
可是人類往往着眼當前，忘記問題的成因，忽視巴斯夏所指的「看得見與看不見的」效應。所以筆者本周退一步，檢討落到如斯境地的始末，點出當前六大事件或趨勢。
首先全球經濟增長疲弱，部分主要市場步向衰退。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）上周調低2019年全球經濟增長預測至3%，為2009年（當時仍受衰退困擾）以來最低水平。不過，IMF預計2020年經濟情況改善，增長率回升至3.4%。雖然總好過經濟倒退，但復甦程度有限。而且這只是全球平均經濟狀況，撇除中國及印度增長率高於平均水平，比率可能更低。IMF預計，美國經濟增長率接近2%，日本及歐洲大部分國家情況更差。假如中國出岔子，IMF將迅速再次下調經濟展望。
獨角獸上市鬧劇續來
此外，儘管經濟日漸數碼化，貨運循環系統依然存在。可是評估貨運量和運費的卡斯運費指數（The Cass Freight Index）連續10個月錄得按年跌幅，反映全球貨運量減少。還有的是各國央行推出的貨幣及財政刺激政策日漸失效，對上一輪刺激措施效果不大，仍算管用，但衍生的副作用或降低其功效。況且就算央行奉行零息或負利率政策，也不能強迫不想或毋須舉債的人貸款，歐洲央行（ECB）及日本央行正經歷這種痛苦。
美國在2017年實施稅務改革，無疑有益處，可惜中美爆發貿易戰抵消了其成效。其他國家缺乏美元的「囂張特權」（exorbitant privilege），欠缺美國所享有的財政彈性。所以就算歐洲央行行長呼籲歐盟成員國增加財政開支以刺激經濟，各國政府只是聳聳膊，因為根本無法做到。
另一方面，美國預算赤字龐大，而且不斷膨脹。一旦未來數年陷入經濟衰退，政府稅收減少，支出增加，勢將推一步推高赤字。財政部加碼發債，將影響信貸市場。雖然投資者變得謹慎，貨幣市場不經不覺間出現平衡，但他們把現金存放在哪兒事關重要。假如銀行體系缺乏現金這種「潤滑劑」，將大事不妙。
資本市場開始信心崩潰，共享辦公室營運商WeWork上市計劃以鬧劇告終，Real Vision Group共同創辦人威廉斯（Grant Williams）曾預言WeWork將「火車出軌」（trainwreck），果然最終應驗。筆者認為，任何人一看到WeWork的商業模式，就知道明顯是騙局。那麼為何被視為精明的風險資本家甘願投資於這間企業？或者他們已知WeWork的真面目，但深信公司崩潰前能成功掛牌，自己「割禾青」離場，可惜如意算盤未能打響。
曾經無敵的矽谷「獨角獸」企業已失去吸引力，類似WeWork故事料陸續上演。成功企業做到收入多於支出，不僅「獨角獸」難以達標，甚至老牌企業也如是。飛機製造商波音被指走捷徑惹禍，迄今在修補737 MAX客機安全問題上仍陷於苦戰。企業必須錄得盈利增長以支撐股價，對大市是凶兆。
前景較IMF預期更淡
至於最後的事件或趨勢，讓筆者引用英國《每日電訊報》國際商業編輯埃文斯普里查德（Ambrose Evans-Pritchard）的專欄文章，這位著名財經評論員看畢IMF的最新「全球金融穩定報告」（Global Financial Stability Report），相信經濟前景較IMF預期更加黯淡。
撰文又提到，IMF在報告呈現出一幕幕歌德式恐怖劇。與2008年雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒閉前夕相比，目前全球金融市場更加伸延、不穩及危險。量化寬鬆（QE）、零利率及金融抑制，迫使投資者、退休金基金和人壽保險公司冒上更高風險，創造了一隻「怪物」。反饋循環（feedback loop）及連鎖反應不斷「放大」，雖然銀行相對安全（歐洲或中國的銀行除外），但危機湧向影子銀行，假如這些隱藏的槓桿受壓，麻煩將接踵而至。
IMF數據顯示，全球「風險債務」總值190億美元。如果全球經濟放緩或陷入衰退，債仔將難以償還債務。筆者多次談及美國高收益債券市場及槓桿貸款市場危機處處，其實全球情況糟糕得多。
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard表示，法國及西班牙的「風險債務」趕上過往金融危機的水平，中國、英國及美國更加超越危機水平，但所引發的震驚幅度僅及全球金融危機的一半，情況令人憂慮。在歐洲，幾乎所有槓桿貸款缺乏保護條款（protective covenant）保障，債務對息稅折舊攤銷前利潤（debt/EBITDA）比率達到破紀錄的5.8倍，究竟ECB睡着了，抑或主動鼓勵這種情況？IMF呼籲採取「緊急」措施遏止債務失控，同時承認當權者正是這股槓桿熱潮的始作俑者。一旦陷入衰退，各國央行及政府卻拒讓債務清算，不容奧地利政治經濟學家熊彼特（Joseph Alois Schumpeter）提倡的創造性破壞理論（creative destruction，即企業家通過創新、不斷創造，打破舊的市場均衡）自然發展。
筆者在上周「凍結退休計劃，GE免褲頭緊勒」強調 ，退休金基金的投資回報難以應付退休所需，若果出現嚴重熊市，甚至下一波全球經濟衰退，眾多退休金基金將捲入死亡漩渦，急需當局經濟援助，甚至會有違約情況。
把現金儲存在銀行就十拿九穩嗎？也並不全是。當存戶把現金存進支票或儲蓄戶口，其實是把錢借給銀行，所以客戶存款在銀行的資產負債表列為負債。銀行既是債仔又是債主，通過借錢賺取息差。然而，銀行向存戶承諾可以隨時要求提款，又怎能同時把同一筆錢借出？這種制度能運作如常，只因銀行深知只有極少數存戶隨時要求提款，而且當提款要求超出預期，可向其他銀行或聯儲局借錢應急。
現代央行及監管制度實際上淘汰了這種老式銀行運作方式，但銀行體系依然能發揮作用，皆因存戶能從銀行提款，難以把存款撤出銀行體系。只是一旦太多人決定把現鈔存放在家中，或把存款轉賬到難以輕易地槓桿的銀行，這種體系變得脆弱。雪上加霜的是，央行要求銀行必須按照比率提存存款準備金。
回購市場劇烈波動
今年9月發生奇事，回購協議（repurchase agreement）或回購市場（repo market）運作「失靈」，出現劇烈的波動。回購協議對隔夜融資極為重要，否則銀行、經紀商、基金以及其他市場參與者難以進行結算，現代銀行不能運作，銀行體系制有機會暫停。
這並非災難，只要聯儲局注入流動性，一切暫時相安無事。問題在於這種事件不應發生，更糟糕的是無人預計將會出現。類似問題曾在2007年至2008年湧現，同樣應付得來，但最終衍生嚴重得多的難題，所以絕非市場穩定的好兆頭。問題源於聯儲局實施非一般貨幣政策，即使能化解即時困局，卻隨後產生更大問題，出現巴斯夏形容的情況。聯儲局在2017年至2018年同時加息、縮表或量化緊縮（OT）看來「落藥」太重手，甚至現在聯儲局也默認出手太重。筆者曾形容聯儲局進行雙因子實驗（two factor experiment），結果難以預料。「實驗」已經告一段落嗎？無人知曉，但聯儲局顯得慌慌張張，而美國人不需要方寸大亂的聯儲局。
聯儲局主席鮑威爾（Jerome Powell） 在10月8日發表演說，表明聯儲局快將再次擴表，形容此舉並非量化寬鬆再次出台，而是落實較長久的政策，讓聯儲局擁有足夠儲備應對市場波動。
鮑威爾在演說中指出，批發融資市場在9月中意外地出現劇烈波動，繳付企業稅及購買國債，導致貨幣市場明顯地承受流動資金壓力，隔夜拆息飆升，有效聯邦基金利率（EFFR）短暫地升至高於聯儲局公開市場委員會（FOMC）目標範圍。為了紓緩這些壓力，聯儲局作出暫時性公開市場操作（POMO）。
不容忽視高槓桿體系
目前已落得如斯田地，聯儲局認為必須動用核武撲殺烏蠅。筆者對此感到遺憾，對聯儲局能否處理下一波危機信心不大。筆者一再指出，聯儲局同時縮表及加息犯下彌天大錯。部分市場分析師相信回購危機源於聯儲局調整資產負債表。聯儲局只能悉數買下財政部發行的國債，意味不斷膨脹的巨額聯邦債券到期日縮短，政府借貸成本急升，未來鬧出大麻煩。
此外，聯儲局以孳息曲線前端年期的息率買債，無疑能把目前已經倒掛的孳息曲線拗回正常，減輕市場對經濟衰退的疑慮。但聯儲局不應這樣做，因為孳息曲線倒掛正是經濟衰退的指標，不應強行操縱。況且此舉根本不能解決深層問題。可是聯儲局已經動手，結局目前難料，正是問題所在。
一如沙堆理論，沙堆本來就不穩定，最終難免崩塌。高度槓桿的銀行體系同樣危危乎，但一切均經銀行家精心安排，絕非意外出現，銀行必須高度槓桿，才能按銀行家希望的方式運作。央行致力穩定「沙堆」，但央行不是十全十美，如果「沙堆」塌下，情況將十分糟糕。基於以上種種原因，在可見將來難免鬧出危機，筆者敢打賭債市將出岔子。
作者為著名投資分析專家，其《前沿思考》（Thoughts from the Frontline）是目前全球發布範圍最廣的投資通訊，擁有過百萬讀者。John Mauldin擁有極強洞察能力，擅長解構複雜的金融現象，每周對華爾街、全球金融市場和經濟歷史提出精闢見解，並與擁有6人分析員團隊的Mauldin Economics，一同把John Mauldin對宏觀經濟的幾十年分析經驗結合各大行的投資建議，為投資者精挑細選出投資機遇，並在網站https︰//www.mauldineconomics.com刊出。
《信報》為大中華區唯一刊載John Mauldin投資通訊的中文媒體，內容由《信報》翻譯。逢周四在《信報》及信報網站www.hkej.com刊出。