Millennials have an average of $28,000 in debt—and the biggest source isn’t student loans

Megan Leonhardt Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 11:13 AM EDT It may seem like student loans and millennials are inextricably linked. But a new survey shows that education bills are not the leading source of debt among this generation.

Millennials (defined here as ages 23 to 38) have racked up an average of $27,900 in personal debt, excluding mortgages, according to Northwestern Mutual’s 2019 Planning & Progress Study. The findings are based on a survey conducted by The Harris Poll of over 2,000 U.S. adults.

The biggest source of debt? Credit card bills. And that’s a “troubling” trend, Chantel Bonneau, a financial advisor with Northwestern Mutual, tells CNBC Make It.

“One issue that a lot of millennials have is that they have not wanted to sacrifice their lifestyle, even though they have student loans or lower incomes,” Bonneau says. “That has left us in this spot where they’ve accumulated a significant amount of credit card debt.”

That’s especially concerning because it’s important to save for future financial goals, such as buying a home or building a retirement fund, when you’re young and have time to let compound interest grow your money.

But because millennials are balancing both student loans and credit card debt, “the likelihood that millennials are prioritizing retirement in any meaningful way as an overall generation seems unlikely,” Bonneau says.

Yet for many millennials, the slide into debt goes beyond just lifestyle creep. Wages are not keeping up as day-to-day costs continue to soar, according to Alissa Quart, executive director of the Economic Hardship Reporting Project and author of “Squeezed: Why Our Families Can’t Afford America.”

The average paycheck only has the same purchasing power it did 40 years ago, a Pew Research report found. Almost two-thirds of millennials say they’re living paycheck to paycheck and only 38% feel financially stable, according to Schwab’s 2019 Modern Wealth report.

Student loans are also a factor. The number of households with student loan debt doubled from 1998 to 2016, Pew Research Center found. The median amount of loan debt millennials carried was $19,000, significantly higher than Gen Xers’ balance of $12,800 at the same age.

While it may be easy to criticize millennials for simply spending too much, it’s important to remember that there are other issues at play, Terri Kallsen, Schwab’s executive vice president of investor services, tells CNBC Make It. “Spending is not the enemy that we might think that it is,” she says.

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美國聯儲局在香港時間周四凌晨2時公布議息結果，決定再減息四分一厘，把聯邦基金目標利率下調至介乎1.75至2厘，符合市場預期，是繼7月底以來，連續兩次減息。美股在議息結果公布後表現反覆，道指跌幅一度收窄，然後輾轉急挫逾200點，但收市溫和倒升，因為聯儲局主席鮑威爾在會後對記者稱，美國經濟仍然強勁，暗示今年甚至明年都無須再減息，但局方可能有需要擴張資產負債表，消息帶動銀行股股價上揚。

議息聲明顯示，支持減息的委員有7人，堪薩斯聯儲銀行總裁喬治(Esther George)及波士頓聯儲銀行總裁羅森格倫(Eric Rosengren)則投反對票，認為現時毋須減息。另外，聖路易斯聯儲銀行總裁布拉德(James Bullard)認為應減息半厘。

聯儲局同時公布最新的利率及經濟展望。從利率點陣圖所見，一眾官員預測今年底的聯邦基金目標利率中位數為1.875厘，意味今年內將不再減息，但有7名官員預期年底前再減0.25厘。至於明年底，預測利率中位數為1.875厘。

上調今年經濟失業率預測

今次是自2008年金融海嘯後，聯儲局10年來第二次減息。市場關注貿易紛爭帶來的不確定性，將影響經濟增長。另外，鮑威爾在7月底上一次會議宣布減息後，聲稱僅屬「中期調節」，不代表寬鬆周期已啟動，投資者關注鮑威爾在記者會上，對今次減息的說法。

議息聲明指出，根據環球經濟發展決定減息，就業市場繼續強勁，失業率維持在低水平，經濟繼續穩步前行，通脹壓力仍溫和。局方會採取適當措施，保證美國經濟持續擴張，令就業市場保持強勁及通脹處於「對稱性的2%目標」附近，未來將會繼續監察各項數據。

在最新的季度經濟展望，聯儲局上調今年經濟增長預測至2.2%，較6月時預測的2.1%為高；明年的經濟增長則維持在2%。至於今年通脹率預測保持在1.5%不變，並展望失業率略升至3.7%。

議息公布後道指跌幅曾擴大

股市方面，議息聲明公布前，美股三大指數偏軟，議息結果公布後道指曾擴大至跌211點，標指則在3000點關爭持。美國聯邦快遞(FedEx)周三調低2020年盈利預測，公司股價收市大挫12.92%。

道指收市倒升36點，標指微漲0.03%，納指跌0.11%。歐股方面，法德股分別升0.09%及0.14%，英股低收0.09%。亞股表現不一，日股收市跌0.18%。

雖然市場預期聯儲局會減息，但因通脹壓力及薪酬增長溫和，料出手不會太進取，美滙趨強，美滙指數尾段升0.32%，報98.58。美元兌日圓升0.33%，報108.46。歐羅兌美元報1.1026，跌0.42%。

早前沙地阿拉伯石油生產設施遇襲，美國總統特朗普下令財政部加強對伊朗制裁。由於沙地能源部長稱原油生產將於9月底回復至受襲前水平，拖累油價周二大挫，周三跌勢持續。倫敦布蘭特期油及紐約期油曾挫2.3%及2.8%，其後跌幅收窄，美市收市，布蘭特期油每桶報63.6美元，跌1.5%。紐約期油跌2.1%，每桶報58.11美元。市場擔心原油價格上升引發通脹，黃金有對沖需求，紐約12月期金每盎斯收報1515.8美元，升0.2%。

數據方面，美國上周MBA抵押貸款申請指數跌0.1%，此前一周升2%。當地8月新屋動工漲12%，以年率計為136.4萬間，多過市場預期；8月建築許可增長7.7%，以年率計為141.9萬間，同樣多於市場預期，兩者年率均創逾12年新高。

Infoman

Tech Policy / AI Ethics

The world’s top deepfake artist: ‘Wow, this is developing more rapidly than I thought.’

Hao Li sees deepfake technology as moving quickly toward being indistinguishable from reality. by Patrick Howell O'Neill

Sep 18, 2019 Screengrab from Putin deepfake DEEPFAKE BY HAO LI

AI-powered deepfake video technology is advancing faster than even some of the world’s top experts thought possible.

Its stunning trajectory means that within a few years, perfect and virtually undetectable deepfakes may be possible, USC professor and deepfake pioneer Hao Li said today at MIT Technology Review’s EmTech conference.

Li is collaborating closely with Hany Farid of UC Berkeley, one of the world’s best digital forensics scientists. The collaboration reflects both competition—after all, Farid’s job is to detect the kind of deepfakes Li creates—and, in a bigger sense, close cooperation.

“We are working together on an approach that assumes that deepfakes will be perfect,” Li said. “Our guess that in two to three years, it’s going to be perfect. There will be no way to tell if it’s real or not, so we have to take a different approach.”

Li also runs a startup called Pinscreen focused on business and entertainment uses of the tech. His team was behind the wizadry that put Paul Walker into Furious 7, part of the Fast and Furious film franchise, after Walker died in a car crash. In a sign that Hollywood’s knocks are getting louder, he’s currently working on a Will Smith movie project. But Li has complex feelings about the future of the technology he’s working so closely on.

MIT TECHNOLOGY REVIEW “One theory on why it hasn’t caused even more harm yet is simply because the quality isn’t there yet,” Li said. “But it will get there. And a second theory is that the technology still requires a little bit of work from users to create really good deepfakes. But it’s funny because a few months ago I said it may be years until that moment where it’s easy for anyone to do this. No one realized there was this Chinese app that came out a week later. I thought, ‘Wow, this is developing more rapidly than I thought.’”

The app is Zao, a face-swap program that, with a single photograph, can let you place yourself in big television shows and movies. The app, which is monstrously popular in China, is at the center of a debate about privacy and unintended consequences.

Allan Xia @AllanXia In case you haven't heard, #ZAO is a Chinese app which completely blew up since Friday. Best application of 'Deepfake'-style AI facial replacement I've ever seen.

Here's an example of me as DiCaprio (generated in under 8 secs from that one photo in the thumbnail) 🤯 Embedded video

28.8K 2:32 PM - Sep 1, 2019 · Auckland, New Zealand Twitter Ads info and privacy

14.4K people are talking about this

It’s a powerful tool that shot up to the top of China’s App Store for obvious reasons. Who doesn’t want to instantly become Leonardo DiCaprio?

Is it perfect? Far from it. But the fact that so much can be done within a few seconds on anyone’s smartphone signals just how fast deepfake technology is advancing—and just how many crucial questions remain unanswered

Infoman

原油價格因沙地石油設施受襲而衝高，但待設施恢復後，油價還是很大機會回落至先前水平，因為新能源技術未來只會愈來愈成熟。但地球上另一重要資源，近日也不斷攀升，不錯，說的就是記憶體晶片DRAM和NAND。

科網裏有很多板塊，除了今年表現突出的雲端與電子支付，人工智能、大數據、社交媒體、智能手機等也十分有趣。經歷過去一年多的調整後，不少硬件股份於近月重新轉強，如記憶體晶片廠商美光（Micron）、三星電子、SK海力士（SK Hynix）等同創出或接近52周新高。掌握全球最厲害晶片生產技術的台積電也在此列。此外，近日不少中港上市的智能手機供應鏈股份，亦同步轉強。上周蘋果發布的新iPhone，市場反應也不錯，聽說訂單早已爆滿。誰說智能手機已經開到荼蘼？再來一家內地新晉網購企業，公布第二季業績後，個多月內上升近五成。誰說內地網購大局已定，未來只會穩定增長？

已說過許多次，現代科網企業的一大特點，在於其不斷變化。一種產品未變老，便已在開發新產品。一些新的商業機會（如電子支付），固然增長很快，在一些行了幾年甚至10年的產品趨勢，也能通過產品革新來滿足市場需求變化。

例如晶片有周期，但大體仍是在一個大型的上升周期內，因為未來記憶體的使用還會愈來愈多。全球智能手機出貨量已夠多了，但還是會有一代又一代的功能更新，它日後更可能變成一種高黏性的產品，綑綁消費者對電子支付、遊戲等的軟件需求。

科網巨擘組跨國生態

網購嗎？上一代消費者是上網搜尋貨品，未來可能是網店向商戶推薦。大數據把你了解得夠深了，一打開App便彈出你感興趣的資訊，毋須不斷搜索找尋。這種商業模式有機會成功嗎？Costco就是靠這模式從沃爾瑪（Walmart）手上奪走市場份額的。網購未來仍有變化，因為消費者的需求也在不斷改變。

回到美股，一直很悶的Alphabet（Google母公司）和Facebook，近日也開始靠近52周新高，市場是否在打賭美國經濟其實不壞，廣告生意仍大有可為？股市何時會進入最後升浪？大概是連最大的幾隻巨擘也開始加速。雲端和電子支付今年表現不錯，相反幾大巨擘和硬件卻一直調整，直到近月才重上升軌。科網是繼續板塊輪動，還是在不久後全線上升，絕對值得投資者留意。

投資者常說恒指恒指，為何要故步自封？納指也不全面，全球股市裏的那些科網巨擘，其實早已形成了一個「全球指數」。美股和中概股在美國，幾家中國的在香港，晶片股則在韓國、台灣。股價表現和當地股市沒大關係，卻跟千里以外上市的其他科網股有關係，升跌有序，這才是投資者該注視的，而不是每天只盯着香港香港。為何稱為全球指數，而不是全球科技股指數？因為科技股已包括全球最大市值的十家八家企業。

筆者為證監會9號業務持牌人

hcl.hkej@gmail.com

（編者按：郝承林最新著作《致富新世代3──你也可以的穩健發財派》現已發售）

歡迎訂購：實體書、電子書

Infoman

9月17日，周二。沙地阿拉伯石油設施遇襲，老畢在意的並非油價升幾多，而是對通脹極度敏感的債市有何反應。即晚（周一）所見，美國債息下跌而非上升，反映避險情緒壓倒債市對油價帶動通脹升溫的憂慮。沿此路進，地緣政局愈緊張，債息回頭的機會愈大。

美國與伊朗若真的爆發軍事衝突，資金一窩蜂湧入債市避險，則股市中所有板塊的相關性都會去到接近1，再以近日引起熱議的板塊輪動（sector rotations）作分析框架，恐怕派不上用場。問題是，中東局勢猜無可猜，不能隨便假定最壞情況必然發生。上周被形容為8.5個標準差事件的增長股/價值股輪動，由債息抽升觸發，長債孳息率若能穩定下來，板塊輪動理論上將無以為繼，但真的如此嗎？

重拾舊歡

摩根大通策略師Marko Kolanovic是老畢近期跟進得比較密的市場論家，睇勢有兩道之餘，涵蓋面也廣，在債息牽動股市、強弱勢板塊不轉則已一轉驚人的當下，此君意見別具參考價值。你不一定要認同他的看法，但其觀點總能引發投資者從另一角度思考市場。

Kolanovic於最新評論中指出，在研究過油價與美股之間的關係後，發現只有當油價升至每桶80至85美元時，標普500指數才會開始感受到高油價的負面影響。換句話說，紐約期油要從目前約62美元至少再漲三成，「油魔」效應始會在美股出現。油價會從現水平升三成嗎？Kolanovic以一句談何容易作答。

歷史會否重演從來說不準，惟這番話足以證明，摩通當紅策略師與許多朋友一樣，並不認同油價有力挑戰80美元，遑論重返百算。然而，值得注意的不是此君看好或看淡油價，而是他認為油價即使處於目前水平，亦足以令投資者與能源股重拾舊歡，為增長向價值讓路增添動力。

當頭棒喝

標指能源板塊9月份雖反彈逾6%，但能源股過去一年仍累跌一成八，在美股各大板塊中表現最差。那等於說，經過上周投資者極速換馬及沙地遇襲事件刺激油價單日暴升後，能源板塊依然遙遙落後其他股份。假設地緣政局維持緊張，戰爭卻非一觸即發，油價既能享受早被遺忘的風險溢價，債息亦不虞迅速回試月初低位，那麼能源股「鹹魚翻生」就非癡人說夢。

老畢覺得，能源股所以長期備受冷落，很大程度源於市場聚焦環球經濟疲弱「摧毀」石油需求（demand destruction），對地緣政局緊張為供應帶來的潛在影響卻視而不見。沙地設施遇襲令石油供應瞬間每天損失數百萬桶，這記當頭棒喝，必能促使市場重新審視對油市供求的判斷。

許多Long / Short Trades都是以板塊為對象賭方向的，所謂Long Growth / Short Value，落實到交易層面，往往就是買入軟件股/沽空油氣股，順風順水時兩頭賺不知幾過癮，惟勢頭何時逆轉，永遠冇人拍膊頭通知閣下。若非如此，老畢也不必在9月9日強制性沽售三隻美國增長股，當真有口話人冇口話自己，在下何嘗不是板塊輪動的受害者？

轉運非難

美國極鷹派國家安全顧問博爾頓被侵侵怒炒後，美伊關係看似出現轉機，地緣緊張局勢一度降溫。沙地事件發生後，形勢急轉直下，投資者連心理準備亦來不切做，最終會點估嚟無謂，但市場顯然已不敢低估地緣風險。中美下月初恢復高級別經貿磋商，倘若一如傳聞，在較易取得共識的問題上達成協議，油市需求面話唔定都會改觀，能源股轉運並非想像般難。

（編者按：畢老林最新著作《我的投資日記》現已發售）

歡迎訂購：實體書、電子書

Infoman

The world of connected consumer electronics, IoT, and smart devices is growing faster than ever with tens of billions of connected devices streaming and sharing data wirelessly over the Internet, but how secure is it? As we connect everything from coffee maker to front-door locks and cars to the Internet, we're creating more potential—and possibly more dangerous—ways for hackers to wreak havoc. Believe me, there are over 100 ways a hacker can ruin your life just by compromising your wireless router—a device that controls the traffic between your local network and the Internet, threatening the security and privacy of a wide range of wireless devices, from computers and phones to IP Cameras, smart TVs and connected appliances.

In its latest study titled "SOHOpelessly Broken 2.0," Independent Security Evaluators (ISE) discovered a total of 125 different security vulnerabilities across 13 small office/home office (SOHO) routers and Network Attached Storage (NAS) devices, likely affecting millions. "Today, we show that security controls put in place by device manufacturers are insufficient against attacks carried out by remote adversaries. This research project aimed to uncover and leverage new techniques to circumvent these new security controls in embedded devices," the researchers said. List of Affected Router Vendors SOHO routers and NAS devices tested by the researchers are from the following manufacturers: Buffalo Synology TerraMaster Zyxel Drobo ASUS and its subsidiary Asustor Seagate QNAP Lenovo Netgear Xiaomi Zioncom (TOTOLINK) According to the security researchers, all of these 13 widely-used devices they tested had at least one web application vulnerability that could allow a remote attacker to gain remote shell access or access to the administrative panel of the affected device. hacking wifi router software These vulnerabilities range from cross-site scripting (XSS), cross-site request forgery (CSRF), buffer overflow, operating system command injection (OS CMDi), authentication bypass, SQL injection (SQLi), and file upload path traversal vulnerabilities. Full Control Over Devices Without Authentication Researchers said they successfully obtained root shells on 12 of the devices, allowing them to have complete control over the affected devices, 6 of which contained flaws that would enable attackers to gain full control over a device remotely and without authentication.

These affected business and home routers are Asustor AS-602T, Buffalo TeraStation TS5600D1206, TerraMaster F2-420, Drobo 5N2, Netgear Nighthawk R9000, and TOTOLINK A3002RU. This new report, SOHOpelessly Broken 2.0, is a follow-up study, SOHOpelessly Broken 1.0, published by the ISE security firm in 2013, when they disclosed a total of 52 vulnerabilities in 13 SOHO routers and NAS devices from vendors including TP-Link, ASUS, and Linksys. Since SOHOpelessly Broken 1.0, researchers said they found a few newer IoT devices implementing some useful security mechanisms in place, like address-space layout randomization (ASLR), functionalities that hinder reverse engineering, and integrity verification mechanisms for HTTP requests. However, some things have not changed since SOHOpelessly Broken 1.0, like many IoT devices still lack basic web application protection features, like anti-CSRF tokens and browser security headers, which can greatly enhance the security posture of web applications and the underlying systems they interact with. ISE researchers responsibly reported all of the vulnerabilities they discovered to affected device manufacturers, most of which promptly responded and already took security measures to mitigate these vulnerabilities, which have already received CVE Ids. However, some device manufacturers, including Drobo, Buffalo Americas, and Zioncom Holdings, did not respond to the researchers' findings. Have something to say about this article? Comment below or share it with us on Facebook, Twitter or our LinkedIn Group. ShareShareComments SHARE  Stay Informed — Newsletter Sign Up Sign up for THN newsletter and get our latest stories delivered straight to your inbox. Email Latest Stories The Definitive RFP Templates for EDR/EPP and APT P The Definitive RFP Templates for EDR/EPP and APT P... Warning: Researcher Drops phpMyAdmin Zero-Day Affe Warning: Researcher Drops phpMyAdmin Zero-Day Affe... United States Sues Edward Snowden and You'd be Sur United States Sues Edward Snowden and You'd be Sur... Thousands of Google Calendars Possibly Leaking Pri Thousands of Google Calendars Possibly Leaking Pri... Related Stories

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Infoman

It’s time to redirect government subsidies supporting solar and wind farms toward clean technologies that can’t yet compete on their own, according to Bill Gates. Does his idea make sense?

What did he actually say?: The falling costs and rising share of solar and wind power are one of the few success stories to date in the battle against climate change, the Microsoft cofounder and clean energy investor said during an interview with Bloomberg.

But Gates said costs aren’t likely to drop much further and other areas are in far greater need of support, including: grid energy storage, offshore wind parks and tools that could cut greenhouse gas emissions in sectors other than electricity, such as agriculture, cement and steel.

Why’s that?: One of the highest hurdles for wider adoption of renewables isn’t the cost of the electricity they generate, but the fact that they can only produce it when the sun is shining or wind is blowing. Better, cheaper energy storage technologies could help address that limitation.

Gates’ clean energy fund, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, has been investing tens of millions into startups working on this very problem, including Quidnet, Form Energy and Malta. The firm also funded Boston Metal, an MIT spinout developing an emissions-free method of producing steel.

So... is he right? Should we divert subsidies?: In an ideal world, yes. The government applies them to help a technology reach a level of scale and maturity where they can compete in the market on their own.

And to the degree there’s a finite pool of subsidies available, they should be directed toward the tools we need the most and which require the most help.

But …: There is an added wrinkle here. Renewables don’t just need to compete with natural gas or coal on a dollar-for-dollar basis, so that utilities pick them when they’re in the market for a new plant.

Given the dangers of climate change, solar and wind farms need to become so cheap that it becomes economical to start shutting down fossil fuel sources that would otherwise continue operating, and pumping out emissions, for decades into the future.

The slowdown in renewables growth last year certainly doesn’t suggest we’re anywhere near that point, even with government subsidies in place.

Infoman

《紐時》那篇報道香港人對中國日漸冷漠的文章，最後引用我的話說，香港出現這種變化「中共只能怪自己。批評中國的人士原本認為自己是愛國者，中共卻待他們如敵人，並一再挫敗他們對中國體制改革的希望。」並引我說，「當愛國成了愛黨的同義詞，我和大多數香港人都『不』了。『我從前是個愛國者。當然現在我不是了』。」

記者的這段話，記錄的應該是我幾十年前的想法。在1981年脫離左派陣營以前，確實認為對中國的批評，是期望中國可以走向民主，也自以為這是愛國的表現。但1981年之後，我獨立經營《七十年代》月刊，從此擺脫了對中共的依附，深感獨立自由的輿論空間之可貴，也就認識到「愛國」是一種對言論自由的羈絆。「從前是個愛國者」的「從前」，不是近年，而是距今38年矣。

1981年，我參與了勞思光教授的香港前景研究社，其後數十年在言論上都力拒中共對香港直接間接的統治，當然絕不是中國所定義的「愛國者」。而在更早之前，我就不斷對愛國主義、民族主義和民主主義進行思考和研讀，並一直寫有關的議題。

今年夏天，海外一些著名的人文科學學者，在美國舉行了一次五四百年研討會，重點研討中國民族主義和民主主義的問題，他們大都認為文化的五四是在1919年五四運動發生前多年已經開始，那時的新文化運動是自由、民主、人權的啟蒙，但「民主」被五四「外抗強權」的民族主義凌駕了以至取代了。從此民主在社會意識中被抑壓在民族主義之下，並逐漸淡去。

日本神戶大學教授王柯認為，五四運動留給中國的歷史傷痕，就是「藉『民族』『愛國』之名，行滅民主主義之實」。

他指出，「民族」一詞，是日本繙譯外文Nation而來，中國近代引入這個用詞，通過「民族」、「民族主義」和「民族國家」閹割了nation、nationalism和nation state中原有的民主、自由、平等、人權等普世價值，將「中華民族」、「中華民族國家」敍述為一種終極的價值。從呼喚德先生（民主）和賽先生（科學）的文化啟蒙運動走到高喊愛國主義的五四，近代中國社會正是在這一過程中轉換到了以民族主義壓制民主主義道路上去的。

民主主義的本質是個人主義，而民族主義的本質是集體主義。

個人主義以尊重每一個人的權益為基礎以建立民主制度；集體主義則以服從「集體利益」而使自己有安身立命之所。民主主義體現人類對自由、人權、尊嚴、平等的高級需要，而民族主義則以滿足低級的安全需要為標的。

王柯認為，中國的民族主義是一種通過「被選擇的精神創傷」而被製造出來的「屈辱型民族主義」，通過製造「民族屠殺」和「百年屈辱」的集體記憶，喚醒民眾的集體意識而放棄追求個人主義性質的民主主義。當人們被告知敵人亡我之心不死，需要天天牢記「民族到了最危險的時候」，就會「從高級需要向更加急迫的安全需要退化。一個常見、幾乎是預料之中的反應，是更容易接受獨裁或軍事統治」。這正是中國統治者鍾愛民族主義的理由所在。

中國留學生阻撓香港留學生的反送中集會，說港生不愛國；北角的愛國兇徒問記者，「你是不是愛國記者」。從這些表現就看到兩制深層次矛盾在哪裏：我們崇尚個人自由的民主主義，他們崇尚服從權力的集體主義。

http://www.facebook.com/mrleeyee 李怡

Infoman

1) brkb. Value

2) cost Retail

3) mrk. Health

4) v. Payment

5) gold Gold

Infoman

倫交所昨晚宣布拒絕邀約後，股價曾跌0.7%，但其後倒升4.3%。港交所（0388）ADR（美國上市預託證券）昨晚11時較港股收市價跌1.2%。

倫交所倒升港交所ADR跌1.2%

倫交所公告顯示，董事會達成一致決定，拒絕此併購提議。倫交所主席Don Robert以千字長文回信解釋拒絕交易四大理由，首當其衝是認為該交易不符倫交所策略目標。信中指出，港交所在業務上高度集中，非常依賴市場交易量，若倫交所選擇接受港交所的建議，而放棄收購Refinitiv，將是策略上的極大退步。

董事會受制港府結構「不尋常」

其次，信中指出交易面對無法達成的重大風險，更將矛頭對準港交所企業架構。信中表示，因倫交所為重大金融基建，屆時將面對來自各類金融監管機構及政府機構的勘查，包括英國、美國及意大利的監管機構。而港交所「不尋常」的董事會結構以及其與香港政府的關係會令事情更加複雜。所謂不尋常，即股東僅能選出港交所13名董事中的6名，其餘7名及主席任命都需要港府批准。倫交所指接納港交所收購，不知能否獲監管機構批准，卻要放棄很有價值的Refinitiv（見另文），不符合股東利益。

港交所提議以現金加發行新股支付方式交易，每股收購作價現金20.45英鎊加2.495股港交所新股，以港交所昨收報240.8元計算，約合82.13英鎊。倫交所認為股份支付不吸引，直指港交所價值充滿不確定性，尤其現時本港局勢為其雪上加霜，更質疑香港長遠是否能維持通往中國門戶位置。最後，即使以上疑慮都獲圓滿解決，倫交所認為港交所給出的316億英鎊（約3077億元）估值，依然遠低於其目標。相反，若倫交所成功收購Refinitiv，料創造巨大價值。

港交所：續接洽倫交所股東

倫交所打碎「羅密歐朱麗葉」童話，港交所昨夜發表回應，指未放棄收購，反而期望與倫交所董事會進行對話，希望證明併購建議遠比收購Refinitiv計劃更可取。港交所認為，倫交所的股東應有機會詳細分析兩項交易，並會繼續與他們接洽。昨日早上，英國《金融時報》報道指，預料交易會遭回絕，港交所已準備好提高現金比例以繼續商榷

Infoman

過去幾年其中一個國際投資主題相信是雲端，不論亞馬遜或微軟都是靠雲端生意翻身。未來十年，除了雲端，人工智能可能是市場期待的另一高增長生意，有調查顯示單以內地為例，預計在2023年，人工智能基礎架構規模將超過80億元（美元．下同），未來五年複合增長率達33.8%，是市場及投資者焦點所在。

複合增長率達33.8%

據「2019年至2020年中國人工智能計算力發展評估報告」反映，全球人工智能基礎設施市場規模為67億元，按年上升46%。在2023年，預期市場規模升至229億元，未來五年複合增長率為27.9%。去年，內地佔全球份額約28.4%，預期到2023年，份額將提升至36.2%，佔全球人工智能市場超過三分之一。

另有研究指出，全球在人工智能新創建的數據量將從去年33ZB上升至2025年175ZB。在市面時常看到儲存容量單位GB代表10的9次方的縮寫，ZB代表10的21次方的縮寫，可想而知，未來人工智能數據量每年將大幅上升，當中的應用將會更多。

先回到原基本步，有機構將人工智能定義為具備學習、推理及自我糾正能力的系統，利用語言、聲音、圖片及影片等與人溝通，從中建立知識庫，並使用機械學習方式作用預測模型，從而進行推理得出結果，機械學習可透過深度學習提升預測的準確度。

上面所提及內地人工智能基礎架構包括5大範疇：AI服務商、雲服務商、芯片供應商、算法及應用供應商。

人工智能芯片對於大家可能有點陌生，分為三類，包括：GPU（Graphics Processing Unit）芯片，主要處理圖像及運算加速；FPGA （Field – Programmable Gate Array）芯片，常用於預測階段，價格及靈活性較高；ASIC（Application Specific Integrated Circuit）芯片，實現特定場景應用要求，靈活性較弱，市場應用不算廣泛。未來5年，芯片每年複合增長將超五成。

發展芯片能力惹關注

去年，內地GPU服務器市場份額首三位分別為浪潮、華為及曙光，浪潮市佔率超過五成，在內地互聯網行業，比率更超過六成。看深一層，人工智能主流芯片依然是GPU芯片，英偉達及AMD屬較為突出供應商。儘管內地芯片供應商亦參與，自中美貿戰，市場擔心內地發展芯片的能力，這對內地人工智能發展起關鍵作用。

人工智能未來幾年的商機如何？明天續談。

retailfun66@gmail.com

Infoman

9月15日，周日。老畢上月底提出，利用金價回調造好，遠勝博恒指技術性反彈。與8月最後一個交易日相比，恒指升逾千六點，金價同期則由約1520美元回落至1488美元。從實戰角度出發，結果永遠較理據重要；不得不承認，逆在下意見行事的投資者才是這段日子的贏家。

避險退潮、風險抬頭可以維持多久說不準，但所謂當局者迷，老畢過度在意金市中長線回升走勢不虞輕易受到破壞，卻忽略了金價與債息的逆向相關性，債息若確認短期見底，市場上眾多crowded trades難免雞飛狗走，黃金自不例外。

風水輪流轉

順勢而行聽落好容易，證諸事實，大部分時間確亦遠勝包拗頸扒逆水。然而，當閣下滿以為賺錢易過執豆，往往就是最危險的時候。站在炒家立場，沒必要強分風險資產與避險資產，哪個「場」較有把握獲利，押上真金白銀便是。難就難在，無人會拍拍閣下肩膊，預先提醒你美國10年期債息會在1.45厘觸底，然後三扒兩撥爆穿1.9厘；更多人反而會講，連格老都批死美國債息陷入負數無可避免，唔加注Long債就笨。

同一道理，增長股跑贏價值股大大話話維持了十幾年，時至今日，估值差距誇張過科網泡沫時期，可是同個勢對着幹的芬佬試咁耐衰咁耐，媒體連落井下石都費事。人人識講，總有一天風水輪流轉，價值股不可能成世褲穿窿，但就如債息，價值與增長勢頭何時逆轉，同樣冇人會輕拍閣下膊頭通知你。唯一可以肯定的是，不轉由自可，一轉風捲殘雲，好多人死咗都唔知發生乜事。

上周的股市大換馬，不少對沖基金被形容為經歷四個標準差事件後，再經歷四個標準差事件！諷刺的是，此輩所以於短短三兩天內傷亡慘重，正正由於近年Long Growth / Short Value無往而不利，樂極忘形到連警覺性都消失埋，強弱瞬間大易轉，焉能不血流成河？

物極必反乃老生常談，惟人在市場，大道理永遠敵不過貪婪與恐懼這兩大人類天性。此所以，順勢而行縱得心應手，也須時刻謹記控制注碼，否則一個大浪走避不及，賺賺埋埋分分鐘唔夠一鋪輸。

講完貪婪自然輪到恐懼，自2009年美股步入大牛市以來，標普500指數前前後後出現過17次5%或以上調整。美股每次回落，感覺上都好像大難臨頭，恐懼心理驅使無數投資者選擇清倉離場，一心等個市冧完執平貨，結果次次事與願違，變成唔低唔沽唔高唔買，徒令投資成本不必要地增加。

貪婪與恐懼

大家也許以為，多看幾本卡內曼（Daniel Kahneman）的行為經濟/財務學巨著，便能逐步糾正投資劣習。我可以告訴各位，那是不行的，皆因天性就是天性，靜態的思考不論多理性和合乎邏輯，面對瞬息萬變的市場動盪，投資行為仍會不斷受到貪婪與恐懼主宰，極其量輸少一些。

我講你未必信，就連卡內曼本人也坦承，埋首鑽研behavioral finance足足半世紀，2002年連諾貝爾經濟學獎都攞埋，但時至今日仍擺脫不了諸般偏見，幾十年來不斷犯下過度自信、按直覺行事等錯誤，可見大師能醫不自醫，人類天性一旦作祟亦無計可施。

老畢就話，行為經濟學在「醫人」方面也不見得有何建樹，只因這門學問善斷症而不善治療，只知錯誤卻無法糾正，試問何用之有？

調動誘因建奇功

天性既然改變不了，一切就得從誘因着手。老畢在機緣巧合下發現，美國新晉券商Betterment於客戶調整資產配置前都會發出溫馨提示，告訴他們這樣做的稅務後果。調查顯示，被「一言驚醒」的客戶中，多達八成改變主意，這令老畢想起一個跟港人對得上口的例子。

強積金面世咁耐畀人鬧咁耐，但政府推出可扣稅自願性供款（TVC）後，批評強積金的聲音雖不見得平靜下來，惟身體比語言誠實，參與自願性供款的打工仔數字激增。我不相信TVC開戶者忽然對複利着迷，集體擁抱長線投資，反應熱烈實因扣稅省下的款項，在他們眼中變相成為萬無一失的回報。從以上二例可見，要改變投資行為，口水多過茶從來不管用，輕微的誘因調動反而可收事半功倍奇效！

（編者按：畢老林最新著作《我的投資日記》現已發售）

歡迎訂購：實體書、電子書

Infoman

政府智慧燈柱監控避無可避？

黃浩基博士（Dr. Jackei Wong）2019/9/15 — 16:50

前文簡單介紹如何利用人工智能技術創造人臉辨識系統，本文將為大家分析一下，一旦政府真正落實監控措施，廣大市民應如何面對？

要創建一個成功的人臉辨識系統，有兩個重點必須要注意：

一、準確提取照片或影片之面部特徵，包括眉毛、眼睛、鼻、嘴巴及面部輪廓二、系統需要大量數據進行訓練及學習以提升準確度

先討論第一點，假設系統已經被訓練至可成功提取面部特徵，我們可以瞞騙系統嗎？前文提及其中一個做法是把圖片轉換成為 128 位之編碼值，這些數字代表整個面部特徵。如果我們把一部份特徵遮蓋，系統可以利用餘下可提取之特徵進行分析。當然，可提取特徵越少（例如對象帶著口罩），人臉辨識之準確度會相對降低。坊間亦流傳可以主動建立虛假面部特徵，例如佩戴一條頭巾，而頭巾上佈滿不同的人臉或面部器官，這個做法可以防止自己被認出來。本以為道高一尺，魔高一丈，可惜以現今之科技，瞞得過一時，瞞不到一世。系統可能短時間內分辨不了，但是經過系統模式修正後，一樣可以辨認出來。國內已經有公司聲稱只需要半張臉便可把一個人辨認出來。

另一方面，所謂人工智能人臉辨識系統，就是透過一些機器學習（Machine Learning）演算法，針對問題特點去構建模型。每個模型剛被建立之時好像初生嬰兒一樣，並沒什麼知識含量，需要系統開發者給予數據，讓系統進行相關訓練及學習，模型才能長大成人作正式用途。政府擁有我們每個人的照片，就是身份證上的那一張，正面拍的，而且沒有任何配飾。其實就憑這張照片，系統已經能把大部份人辨認出來，因為面部特徵都被清楚明確地拍下來了，後天改造或加工也影響不了結果太多。

如果人臉辨識系統準確度不如理想，還希望再進一步提升，系統可再加入步態識別技術。此技術不需要對象主動配合也可以成功識別某個個體，相比指紋、眼睛虹膜、甚至人臉識別技術更為全面，因為步態難以偽裝，作為分辨方法最適合不過。而且，有研究指出，肌肉力量、骨骼長度和密度、身高、體重、身體協調能力等等生理因素都會影響人的走路姿勢。利用步態加上人臉來進行辨識，定必非常準確。就算被辨認之個體當刻未能於系統資料庫中找到相似度高之紀錄，系統也可先將這張臉或這個個體記下來以作將來之用。

這樣，監控真的實施後，是否完全沒有私隱？早前美國三藩市已經正式允許警方利用人臉辨識技術協助執法，而不久之前加州則禁止警方使用攝錄機進行面部識別，同時亦表明未來三年內也不可使用；另一邊雖然英國政府也批准了，當地人民仍與政府進行控訴，希望個人私隱得到保障。雖然政策方面一般市民大眾未必有足夠影響力，有些事情還是可以注意的。例如連接免費公共 Wifi 應先看清條款及細則，藍牙、QR Code 及 RFID 别主動掃瞄等等。期望立法單位確保市民私隱得到全面保障，而市民大眾亦應提高警覺，在取得一時便利之同時，注意別過份地提供私人資料給予第三方。

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Infoman

Ask HN: Where can I find remote or quality oriented freelancing work?

58 s1k3s 5 hrs 20

news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20971098

I'm currently working 40h/week as a backend php developer and I think I can put an extra 20 hours every week to increase my earnings. However, I struggle finding remote work or above the average freelancing projects. Basically I don't want to waste my time on sites like freelancer.com where I have to compete against many low-quality programmers who place low bids just to win projects and then they mess them up. Where could I find jobs like these?

ArtofSaf 26 mins Here's something you can do:

Go to https://trends.builtwith.com/websitelist/PHP to see websites that use PHP
Focus on smaller to mid-size companies (large corporations likely have the tech team and contractors to cover almost of their needs)
(Optional) Search for each company on Linkedin and add managers with relevant roles (VIP of sales, project manager, marketing manager, etc.). The goal is to familiarize them with your name so they're more likely to open your email (step 5).
Find the email format of these companies with https://hunter.io/.
Reach out to the most senior person with a relevant role at each company with a personalized 1-on-1 email.

The key here is to review their website and business and share 2-3 ideas of what you can them build or fix (if there are any glaring issues or vulnerabilities). They may not necessarily use your ideas but the goal is stand out and help them understand how they can put your programming skills to use. Here's a template you can reference: https://artofemails.com/new-clients#developer

There are a lot of businesses out there whose teams don't have the capacity to build everything so they would be keen to have a reliable freelance programmer help them bring some features or projects out of backlog.

yakshaving_jgt 1 hr This is maybe going to be an unpopular suggestion, but I think certain technologies are going to more commonly be associated with race-to-the-bottom markets, and I think PHP is one of those. It might make sense in investing in studying some more niche and higher-barrier-to-entry languages.

akor 45 mins What languages do you suggest? Does Javascript have the same association with "race-to-the-bottom markets"? Having used Symfony and Laravel I don't understand why PHP has such a bad rep except that it's on the easier side so any language that makes things simple would suffer the same fate (attracting inexperienced developers (hello Javascript, Ruby, Python)). Both PHP and Javascript have many language specific issues so I'd say they're on equal footing.

starvingbear 13 mins I think PHP is still good. It definitely seems lower in priority for most companies remote or local than it used to be by far but it isn't going away or anything. Niche languages depend on a lot of factors. And debatable on what is still niche but I think Elixir, Scala, Go and Rust are a group to look at. My personal choice has been Elixir and that has worked out great. Lots of remote jobs too with it. A fellow made a post recently about how to find remote jobs in it https://blog.lelonek.me/how-to-find-an-elixir-job-db4c836890

yakshaving_jgt 27 mins I intentionally didn’t suggest any, because I didn’t want this to turn into a language shootout, or for me to sound like a fanboy of the particular languages I prefer. It’s the same reason why I avoided levelling criticisms at PHP. And yes, I do think JavaScript has the same market supply issue.

If you haven’t done much other than PHP and JavaScript, I’d suggest going through the Seven Languages in Seven Weeks book, and also doing a bit of market analysis; see who’s hiring for which languages.

kyriakos 35 mins Only if going for wordpress jobs anything else php related pay is comparable to other languages.

bernierocks 4 hrs It's a numbers game. I used Craigslist last year to find freelance jobs. I talked to about 40 potential clients in a month. Out of those, 30 were a no from me right off the bat (wanted to hire cheap developers, etc) and out of the last 10, I was able to setup a contract with 2.

Here are two things that have helped me:

1) Answer the ad within an hour of it being posted. This may be tough if you have a full time job. My response rate when up 100% when I did this.

2) Give them your phone number and offer to talk on the phone. Email generally doesn't work that well to sell yourself, especially now with all of the low-wage competition.

3) get good at selling yourself. They need to know why they should hire you over a $5/hour developer from overseas. Some don't care and only want to pay peanuts.

Freelancer.com is horrible. I used it a few times and got a few potential clients..but most expect things like a turnkey Facebook clone for $100.

staticautomatic 3 hrs Freelancer is also horrible on the client side fwiw.

erikig 2 hrs TweetJobs was posted in HN the other day - https://tweetjobs.dev

A good portion of the jobs are freelance/remote and pretty up to date.

gabor_biro 1 hr I've been using upwork.com for a few months now and I'm getting regular projects as a mobile developer. Interesting ones too, sometimes to patch up an existing project, sometimes to start a new one. It took roughly a month though until the first clients started responding to my applications. Create a sexy profile and be patient.

Stevvo 1 hr gitcoin.co I made $15k+ on there pretty easily before boring of web development and moving on to other things. One advantage is nearly all of it will be open source and show on your github profile.

krn 1 hr

I made $15k+ on there pretty easily

How did that translate into the hourly rate in your case?

bilifuduo 1 hr Been working on a project to help people find high-impact jobs tackling problems they care about (ie. climate change, healthcare, etc), and we'll have filters for part-time and remote when we launch next month: https://www.splashwithdolphin.com.

cameldrv 2 hrs Show up to PHP meetups in your area if you're near a largish metro. Go for beers afterward, meet the people, mention what you are doing. Keep doing this and wait and you'll likely start getting work coming your way that has a completely different category of client than you'd see on some sort of marketplace.

DoreenMichele 2 hrs I will suggest you could try putting information in your HN profile regarding what you can offer and what you looking for, plus participating on the first of the month in "Freelancer -- Seeking Freelancer" on this site.

I hear over and over that freelancers doing work they like with good conditions get most of their work via word of mouth. That seems to be about finding a few good clients and having an established relationship with them and them referring you to other people.

anon1094 4 hrs Hey there, here are my suggestions for you:

Sign up to AngelList and search their jobs. Besides normal jobs, many startups looking for remote contract developers post there.

AngelList also lets you search by technology category, whether it's contract or not. I don't think they let you search if it's part time or not on the website.

Next, I would join Developer focused Slack channels. Some of these have #jobs channels that post positions from time to time.

Here's an article I wrote that lists some of those out: https://medium.com/hackernoon/developer-slack-channels-remot...

Finally, there are also Facebook Groups as well where some companies and individuals go in and post freelance jobs.

Again, an article I wrote that lists some good Facebook groups for remote work: https://medium.com/hackernoon/facebook-groups-remote-job-fre...

Shameless Plug: How do I know a bunch of these places? I run RemoteLeads, a lead generation service focused on remote freelance development work. If you're interested check us out at https://remoteleads.io/

I hope the above links help and let me know if you have any extra questions. Email in my bio. Happy to help!

Derick

xivzgrev 1 hr Looks like a great site!

One typo I noticed: on pro page (https://remoteleads.io/upgrade), in 6x leads paragraph, "about" is misspelled

"That's abotu 10x less competition per lead according to our analytics."

chris5745 4 hrs If other freelancers are messing up projects on those sites, I would see that as an opportunity to enter the market with a quality service, if the customer needs the quality. If it’s a race to the bottom and you want no part of it, you could start a side business selling something unrelated to programming.

gtirloni 2 hrs I suggest you look at Toptal.

juskrey 1 hr Humiliating machine disguised as a freelance platform

s1k3s 1 hr I thought that too while looking over their "screening process", but now I'm really curious to see how hard it is to get in. Did you go through it?

Infoman

Show HN: RemoteMore – We connect developers with full-time remote jobs

96 BorisBorisov91 4 hrs 60

https://remotemore.com/

news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20971392

Unable to load the content https://remotemore.com/

Infoman

Posts by Infoman

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Ask HN: Where can I find remote or quality oriented freelancing work?

Show HN: RemoteMore – We connect developers with full-time remote jobs