Quantum Mechanics - Philosophical implications

Main article: Interpretations of quantum mechanics Since its inception, the many counter-intuitive aspects and results of quantum mechanics have provoked strong philosophical debates and many interpretations. Even fundamental issues, such as Max Born's basic rules concerning probability amplitudes and probability distributions, took decades to be appreciated by society and many leading scientists. Richard Feynman once said, "I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics."[72] According to Steven Weinberg, "There is now in my opinion no entirely satisfactory interpretation of quantum mechanics."[73]

The Copenhagen interpretation – due largely to Niels Bohr and Werner Heisenberg – remains most widely accepted amongst physicists, some 75 years after its enunciation. According to this interpretation, the probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics is not a temporary feature which will eventually be replaced by a deterministic theory, but instead must be considered a final renunciation of the classical idea of "causality." It is also believed therein that any well-defined application of the quantum mechanical formalism must always make reference to the experimental arrangement, due to the conjugate nature of evidence obtained under different experimental situations.

Albert Einstein, himself one of the founders of quantum theory, did not accept some of the more philosophical or metaphysical interpretations of quantum mechanics, such as rejection of determinism and of causality. He is famously quoted as saying, in response to this aspect, "God does not play with dice".[74] He rejected the concept that the state of a physical system depends on the experimental arrangement for its measurement. He held that a state of nature occurs in its own right, regardless of whether or how it might be observed. In that view, he is supported by the currently accepted definition of a quantum state, which remains invariant under arbitrary choice of configuration space for its representation, that is to say, manner of observation. He also held that underlying quantum mechanics there should be a theory that thoroughly and directly expresses the rule against action at a distance; in other words, he insisted on the principle of locality. He considered, but rejected on theoretical grounds, a particular proposal for hidden variables to obviate the indeterminism or acausality of quantum mechanical measurement. He considered that quantum mechanics was a currently valid but not a permanently definitive theory for quantum phenomena. He thought its future replacement would require profound conceptual advances, and would not come quickly or easily. The Bohr-Einstein debates provide a vibrant critique of the Copenhagen Interpretation from an epistemological point of view. In arguing for his views, he produced a series of objections, the most famous of which has become known as the Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen paradox.

John Bell showed that this EPR paradox led to experimentally testable differences between quantum mechanics and theories that rely on added hidden variables. Experiments have been performed confirming the accuracy of quantum mechanics, thereby demonstrating that quantum mechanics cannot be improved upon by addition of hidden variables.[75] Alain Aspect's initial experiments in 1982, and many subsequent experiments since, have definitively verified quantum entanglement. By the early 1980s, experiments had shown that such inequalities were indeed violated in practice – so that there were in fact correlations of the kind suggested by quantum mechanics. At first these just seemed like isolated esoteric effects, but by the mid-1990s, they were being codified in the field of quantum information theory, and led to constructions with names like quantum cryptography and quantum teleportation.[76]

Entanglement, as demonstrated in Bell-type experiments, does not, however, violate causality, since no transfer of information happens. Quantum entanglement forms the basis of quantum cryptography, which is proposed for use in high-security commercial applications in banking and government.

The Everett many-worlds interpretation, formulated in 1956, holds that all the possibilities described by quantum theory simultaneously occur in a multiverse composed of mostly independent parallel universes.[77] This is not accomplished by introducing some "new axiom" to quantum mechanics, but on the contrary, by removing the axiom of the collapse of the wave packet. All of the possible consistent states of the measured system and the measuring apparatus (including the observer) are present in a real physical – not just formally mathematical, as in other interpretations – quantum superposition. Such a superposition of consistent state combinations of different systems is called an entangled state. While the multiverse is deterministic, we perceive non-deterministic behavior governed by probabilities, because we can only observe the universe (i.e., the consistent state contribution to the aforementioned superposition) that we, as observers, inhabit. Everett's interpretation is perfectly consistent with John Bell's experiments and makes them intuitively understandable. However, according to the theory of quantum decoherence, these "parallel universes" will never be accessible to us. The inaccessibility can be understood as follows: once a measurement is done, the measured system becomes entangled with both the physicist who measured it and a huge number of other particles, some of which are photons flying away at the speed of light towards the other end of the universe. In order to prove that the wave function did not collapse, one would have to bring all these particles back and measure them again, together with the system that was originally measured. Not only is this completely impractical, but even if one could theoretically do this, it would have to destroy any evidence that the original measurement took place (including the physicist's memory). In light of these Bell tests, Cramer (1986) formulated his transactional interpretation[78] which is unique in providing a physical explanation for the Born rule.[79] Relational quantum mechanics appeared in the late 1990s as the modern derivative of the Copenhagen Interpretation.

Infoman

台灣總統選舉將於明年1月舉行，距今還不到4個月。這次選舉各方注目，尤其是太平洋區內中國和美國兩個大國，更是極為關切。因為，最後是民進黨蔡英文苦戰成功連任，抑或國民黨韓國瑜一舉翻身政權更替，任何一個結果，都足以影響中美在區內的戰略部署。

特朗普入主白宮後，提出嶄新的印度洋──太平洋的「印太戰略」，說得清楚一些，印太戰略其實就是對付中國的戰略。印度洋西接波斯灣，東連南中國海，這是中國的海上生命線：石油從中東地區運往中國，先經印度洋，之後穿越馬六甲海峽進入南海，然後北上東海到華東沿岸地區。美國把以往的亞太戰略版圖擴大到印太，顯然準備一旦美中交惡，美國海軍可以提早在印度洋布防，截住中國從波斯灣過來的海路運輸，給予致命一擊。這也可以客觀說明，10年來中國傾力在南海建立軍事基地，又提出「九段線」之說，要把美國勢力趕出這一區域，以免南海航運被捏斷後，出現能源短缺孤立無援。

台倘染紅美圍堵斷纜

雖然把戰略範疇擴大到印度洋，美國對中國的主要制衡戰略，仍以東海及南海為主體，這也是上世紀五十年代冷戰爆發後，美國60多年來在西太平洋的主要戰略。如今，美國在西太平洋沿用當年的「扇形戰略」，攤開地圖：美國在西太平洋的圍堵戰線，北起阿留申群島，經朝鮮半島的南韓，之後是日本，再往南走是沖繩、台灣，再南是菲律賓，之後進入東南亞一帶。另一條戰線，則是從美國西岸出發，往西經過太平洋艦隊總部夏威夷，之後到沖繩。這兩條線，一是從北而南，另一是由西而東，兩條線的接合線，便是沖繩以及附近的台灣一線。

沖繩駐有大量美軍，嘉手納空軍基地是美國在遠東地區最大的空軍基地，有逾200架軍機；沖繩亦是美國海軍陸戰隊第三遠征軍駐地。戰機從沖繩起飛到台灣只要數十分鐘，所以美國精銳戰機F22及F35先後駐防沖繩，正正說明沖繩的戰略價值。至於台灣，位置掛在沖繩之南，地緣戰略價值寶貴，既是正面對着中國華東華南人口稠密的經濟發達地區，也是第一島鏈的核心成分，更是美國防守夏威夷的預警門戶，監視中國經東海進出的海空軍動向。

美國二戰後佔領沖繩，六十年代末才交還日本，可是沖繩至今幾乎仍是等同美國殖民地，美國軍機呼嘯飛越民居之上無日無之。從戰略上來說，沖繩是美國軍事重地，不會輕易撤軍，而沖繩與台灣咫尺之遙，兩地在對付中國時，可以起到同氣連枝的呼應作用。反之，一旦台灣落入中國手上，倒過來牽制沖繩美軍，進而打斷美國由北至南的圍堵連線。因此，台灣早於五十年代已被美國稱為「不沉的航空母艦」，便是因為地緣位置重要，有如美國在中國東海正門外的一艘不會被擊沉的航空母艦。

中共1949年建政後，美國一度有意放棄台灣，但是1950年韓戰爆發，美國驚呼台灣對中國的牽制作用如此巨大。之後，美國在台灣大量駐軍，對台灣政治影響更是深遠。六十年代中葉，中國內部政治動盪，蔣介石再生「反攻大陸」念頭，力阻蔣氏的是美國，不欲台灣破壞華盛頓的遠東戰略大計，無謂在越戰之外再生一事。最明目張膽之時，美國駐台軍官每星期清點台灣登陸艇數目；海軍演習，美國軍官登上台軍艦艇，以防出海後軍艦直駛大陸。就算八十年代美台已無邦交，美國人員強闖台灣中山科學院，對核實驗室灌入水泥，力阻台灣研製核武。時移世易，美國與中國由七十年代的蜜月期，變成現在的幾乎兵戎相見，美國調整戰略，重點也是放在台灣。

港在戰場側慎防橫禍

台美關係是台灣的政治現實，蔡英文也好，韓國瑜也好，縱使對中國立場各異，始終沒有把美國踢走。台灣主流政客，俱以得到華盛頓祝福為目標。

今次大選，美國仍未正式表態，但過去兩年美國國會及政府多次通過並簽署對台灣有利的多項法案，政府部門通過對台灣出售武器，協助台軍更換老舊軍備。中國多次提出抗議，並說要制裁涉及售武的美國企業，然而每當軍售內容公布，台灣朝野都發出一片歡呼聲，顯然美國對台灣防務支援，仍是台灣民眾感到可以力保寶島的重要因素。因此，美國因素在台灣選舉比中國因素重要，這是戰略需要使然，也是一種政治現實。

美國緊控台灣在手，印太戰略在西太平洋這一塊便不虞出現缺口。不過，這也客觀上說明，今天的台灣對中美而言皆是必爭之地，台灣是美國印太戰略的重要成分，台灣也是中國打破美國圍堵的必需部件。明年的台灣大選雖只有藍綠對決，但民進黨國民黨誰勝誰負，關係到中美兩國的地區戰略。未來4個月，中美台三角互動勢將更為頻繁，而且可能愈趨激烈。香港在這場大國博弈之側，可以是旁觀者，但也可能隨時成為其中的落場一員，務必小心，必須留意。

Infoman

來自加拿大的美國第二大電子商務平台Shopify被《財富》雜誌稱為「隱形賣貨機械」，力圖挑戰亞馬遜的「龍頭」地位。Shopify行政總裁兼共同創辦人呂特克（Tobi Lütke）是德國「過江龍」，為了愛情跑到加拿大，抱得美人歸亦開拓新事業。他的企業管治別有一套，愛無預警向員工進行測試，考驗他們的應變能力，並鼓勵冒險，跳出舒適圈。

六歲迷電腦高中輟學

生於1980年的呂特克，在德國小鎮科布倫茨（Koblenz）長大，學業旅程一如I T人，不但沒有上大學，甚至連高中也未畢業。呂特克天生電腦迷，6歲擁有首部電腦便不自拔，12歲開始重寫電腦遊戲代碼，修改電腦硬件。他把上學比喻為歷史課，老師及家人跟他接不上軌，令呂特克經常挑機，所以他一早知道絕非打工的材料，必須自行創業。

呂特克除了電腦，對所有學習全無興趣，16歲決定退出傳統學校，考入西門子（Siemens）設於科布倫茨的電腦程式學徒計劃，一待7年，不一樣的上司于爾根（Jürgen）對他影響深遠。呂特克在網誌形容于爾根屬於反叛派，從不遵守公司服裝守則，打扮得活像飆車族，為人直腸直肚，公然批評同事的構思。不過，于爾根十分有料，字字珠璣，令人信服，所以同事均喜歡及尊敬他。

為愛情甘作過埠新郎

呂特克記得有次為美國通用汽車（GM）經銷商設計軟件，于爾根在出發前一天表示有要事要辦不能同行，着呂特克獨力處理。呂特克又驚又喜，賣力完成任務。類似事件之後一再重演，明白于爾根此舉是要他跳出舒適圈，是個了不起的老師，呂特克並把這個經歷帶入Shopify。

除了電腦遊戲，呂特克亦熱愛玩滑雪板，這項興趣更改變他的一生。呂特克有次前往加拿大卑詩省滑雪，邂逅來自渥太華的未來妻子麥基恩（Fiona Mckean），因為不想談遠距離戀愛，在2002年「嫁雞隨雞」移居渥太華。

在加拿大一切由頭開始，呂特克把興趣變為事業，與朋友萊克（Scott Lake）及魏南德（Daniel Weinand）在2004年創立滑雪板網店Snowdevil，他主力編寫網店的電子商貿軟件。不過，呂特克與生意拍檔很快發現網店的真正賣點並非滑雪板，而是他編寫的電商軟件，不少網店店長希望獲得授權，所以三人從親友籌集了20萬美元，在2006年轉型創立Shopify。

呂特克的人生瓶頸在兩年後出現，擔任行政總裁的萊克離開Shopify，呂特克只有頂硬上，但一直只負責產品銷售的他，對公司的財政及管理全無認識，只好瘋狂翻閱CEO「秘笈」，他說：「坐上CEO之位，有如要在數周內取得MBA學位般痛苦。」後來他決定前往矽谷覓CEO人選，並拜會風險投資公司為Shopify尋求資金。

可是呂特克與風險投資公司管理層會面時，根本不明白對方使用的金融詞彙，亦不懂回答對方的提問。他只好回家惡補，為下次會晤作好準備。雖然最後呂特克未能在矽谷找到接棒人，卻學懂擔任初創企業CEO的基本技巧。

企業文化取走舒適圈

當時可算是呂特克的人生低潮，Shopify財政緊絀，仍寄住在岳父家，依靠親友接濟生活。幸而呂特克獲得Shopify早期投資者菲利普斯（John Phillips）鼓勵堅持下去，公司業務漸上軌道，更在2015年於美國上市，目前有超過4000名員工，截至2018年3月，估計呂特克財產逾12億美元。

協助員工發展，取走他們的舒適圈，成為Shopify企業文化之一。管理層鼓勵員工冒險，追求着緊的事物，從錯誤中學習，並分享經驗。Shopify內部更經常進行「呂特克測試」，由呂特克隨機關掉公司的伺服器，讓員工明白到犯錯也是正常事。此外，呂特克更構思出「信任電池」管理概念，設定每個新入職時的「信任電池」只充電一半，如何充滿電就看他能否與同事好好合作，及可否履行承諾。

Infoman

朋友的孩子有社交障礙，讀書再勤奮，將來就業也會有困難，故此他很憂慮孩子的前途。他的弟弟也有相似的問題，雖然為人老實勤力，可是事業總不順遂。現今香港生活支出愈來愈大，將來孩子和弟弟的環境只怕日益艱難，令朋友憂心不已。

我聽他訴說這問題已有一段時間了，才小心翼翼地向他建議，試試期權交易如何？我說的是售賣股票期權（stock options），short puts和covered calls，只揀有投資價值的上市企業，尤其以美股為主，因為市場發達，成交興旺。這是一門資金需求低，知識要求較高的生意，適合頭腦靈活的年輕人。

可惜朋友只是禮貌地聽了一會，便不了了之。我明白很多人都誤解，認為這是風險極大的投機活動，他不以為我靠害已經相當夠朋友。事實上，上述這兩種交易做法風險有限，並非賭博，反而更像提供服務，在網上交易平台普及的今天，能讓一般大眾輕易參與的一門小本生意。

《信報》專欄作者多的是期貨高手，這裏只作簡介，並嘗試換一個角度來理解股票期權交易，技術細節在網上能輕易查找，這裏就不多講了。

揀優質股有保障

股票期貨是一種標準化的合約，分為認購（call）和認沽（put）兩種，散戶兩種都可以買和賣，此點與窩輪由券商發行，散戶只能買入不同。合約訂定哪隻股票（於美股而言是100股，港股是一手）、哪個行使價、何時到期。到期日前，call的持有人可以用行使價買入該股票，put的持有人可以用行使價賣出。期貨設計原意是為購入者鎖定持股的利潤或提供底價保證，正是前述的服務，但投機者一般買入期權等同買彩票，看升買call、看跌買put，以求小本贏大利。但期權價格中部分為時間值，隨時日而消耗，若買的期權到期日太早，看對了股價升跌方向也會損失，因為到期日時call的行使價低於股票市價，即股價升唔切，call便變成一文不值，put的原理相同。

賣出期權卻是反向的做法，時間消耗對賣出者有利。最基本的操作就是上文提到的兩種：賣put（又稱short put），和在持股的情形下（covered）賣畀現股價高一點行使價的call（即賣covered call）。賣put是賣保險，賣covered call就類似買樓收租，不過，合約期內租客有權以行使價買去你的物業。兩者的回報一模一樣（詳情於此不贅，可查閱一般期權教程），只是操作不同。

如此，一般散戶投資者就可以用這兩種賣期權的做法來促進投資回報：先選出一隻有投資價值的股票，估算合適的買入價，不過與平時輸入一個略低於現價的買入價去等候不同，現在改為賣put，等人家付錢給你去等。而當一旦接貨，實際買入價是行使價減去預先收取的期權金，當中有些彈性：行使價可以在心目中的買入價位附近，扣除賣put價來考慮。Short put接了貨後，就可以sell covered call，如若被對方行使期權call去股票，你的實際賣出價是行使價加上預先收取的期權金。如若到期股價低於call的行使價，股票保住了又可再賣call，周而復始，也算是自製股息。把兩種做法結合同時進行，即持100股/一手股份，在現價下賣一張put，又在現價上賣一張call，收兩份期權金的手法（稱covered strangle），可作累積股票之用。

舉一個例子：以在美國上市的Square（SQ）為例（注意此處只作解說，並非操作建議），9月17日的收市價為59.6美元，一張55美元10月18日到期認沽期權合約叫價0.96/0.98美元，以中間價0.97美元計算，即可收期權金97美元（未扣佣金），接貨成本為55美元-0.97美元=54.03美元，持有至到期而不用接貨的話，月收益為0.97/55=1.76厘。隨着流動交易平台的興起，交易成本可以低至10港元左右。

這樣的買賣最大的風險是什麼？在sell put而言，如若賣出過多的合約，股價跌破行使價時不夠資金接貨就會損失慘重，所以要量力而為，保守些可以限定每張合約都要有足夠現金接貨的情形下才開出；賣covered call就保證了這一點，因為事先已經購入了股票。之後你所面對的最大風險，就是手持或要接貨的那隻股票跌至一文不值，所以要選擇優質企業的股票，和估算合理的買入價。這點非常重要，因為我們作息時間和美國有差距，以上討論的方法是以投資為本位，不是日夜顛倒地盯着市場的瞬間變化來操作的trader做法（下面再談）。優質企業一時股價的低迷會隨着業績改善而過去，故接貨可以是趁低吸納，計入收到的期權金，股票的實際買入價比行使價更低，換個角度想，如若當日直接購入股票，現下跌市損失更多些。還有一點要注意的，是期權交投要活躍；這在香港並不理想，只有少數大市值的股票有期權，況且買賣也稀疏，市況逆轉想平倉時（買回賣出的同一款合約）可能沒有交投，這種情形連騰訊（00700）這麼熱門的期權亦有出現。在美國，絕大多數上市股票都有期權可以買賣，而面向未來、創造價值的企業選擇豐富，討論期權買賣的網上論壇也參與者眾，當中不乏以賣期權套取收入的退休人士。事實上，香港一些銀行所經營的股票掛鈎定存和外幣掛鈎定存，其實就是這樣的期權交易，客戶是向銀行賣出put合約，定存金額就是接貨的本錢，不過用了諸如「兩得定期存款」之類的字眼，好讓年紀大的存戶覺得安心。

勝在操作簡易

由此可見，賣出期權是一門生意，可以長期運作，只是參與者風險承擔能力須要符合孖展戶口的要求，參與美股市場又要具備一定的英文程度，但所需資金不多，只是網上證券期貨戶口的開戶金額要求，而且生意的操作簡便，只須在手機上按幾下，大家白天完成正事後仍可以在美國市場時段買賣，並不妨礙你的日常事務。

做期權買賣除前面所言投資者的風格外，還有純粹的trader風格，運用的技巧多樣化，依賴統計和或然率做決定，高頻買賣，講求嚴格紀律，不求持有股票而是以買賣賺取利潤，需要時刻盯着市況平衡組合，做美股市場的話就變成當夜更的全職工作了，這裏不多講，有興趣的可上網查看，例如免費的Tasty Trade，有詳細教學。年輕人懂得編寫程式的話，甚至可以在某些網上交易平台用程式執行這種買賣。

試想想，有哪一門生意，行業隨時增減轉換，不用找貨源找客戶，完全不用睇人面色，又不須倉貯物流，無員工、無辦事處，喜歡做就做、休就休，就算在外遊，只要能安全上網便可做買賣。更重要的是：不用交利得稅！當然，一切投資/生意都有風險，總要把生活所需資金存起，剩下的才作營運之用。

香港科技大學工商管理碩士校友會會員

Infoman

環球經濟放緩和地緣政治不穩，驅使資金流入債市，令負債息不但出現在政府債上，更蔓延至企業債。歐央行擔心歐洲經濟陷衰退，宣布減息和重啟QE刺激經濟，進一步推低債息。

低風險的歐洲政府債部分已陷負息，較好的美國10年期債也只有1.9厘，比起金融海嘯前4厘以上低很多。追求穩定回報的投資者被迫增加風險投資如高息債，以維持收益。但當經濟下行時，企業盈利倒退，高息債也可因企業營運虧損而出現債務違約。近年派高息的股債混合或高息債基金，年利率有高達8厘的。要留意當中有些基金持有高息債比重較高，而高息債和股市相關系數呈正比，經濟衰退時高息債會和股市一樣下跌，風險不比持大型股低很多。現時才追入買債，風險回報並不吸引。

以防守股維持組合收益

組合持有債券目的是為穩定收入和減少波動，而買入負債息的政府或企業債，目的只有一個，就是在更高位賣出獲利而不是持有至到期，債券便變成投機工具。如負債息成為新常態，投資者也要將債券分散至其他類似債券的資產，如公用板塊和必需消費品板塊，以防守股代替部分債券配置，維持投資組合的收益。

至於美股，筆者在8月的文章認為，美國總統特朗普將連任和股市表現掛鈎，他會力托美股。一如所料，9月初美股因特朗普推遲加徵關稅而反彈，但表現最好不是一直跑贏的科技等增長股，而是今年落後的價值股和小型股【表】。板塊輪動（Sector Rotation）反映投資者先行在增長股獲利，轉移至今年升幅較少的價值股加強防守。科技股今年升幅大和估值貴，加上美國政府正針對大型科技股如谷歌（Google）、亞馬遜（Amazon）、蘋果（Apple）等作反壟斷調查，相信對這些大型科技股的股價造成壓力。

公用板塊毋懼經濟起跌

執筆時有報道指WeWork可能撤回IPO，因估值造價遠低於預期，反映投資者對初創公司轉趨審慎，不願付出高溢價追入沒有盈利和企業管治有問題的公司，似乎科技股熱情開始冷卻，價值股可望跑贏。回歸價值投資，可選擇估值低、股息高的股票，在低息環境會有較佳表現。

找尋類似債券但股息高的股票，在港股有較多選擇。如擔心經濟前景，可考慮公用股的中電（00002）和電能（00006），股息分別有3.7厘和5.2厘，中移動（00941）也有4.3厘，這些公司派息穩定，受經濟周期影響較少。如能承受多一些風險，可用低估值加高股息作選股條件，範圍收窄在恒指成分股中，股息有4厘或以上，預測巿盈率低於過去5年的中位數一個標準差。經篩選後符合條件的共有9隻，分布在銀行（3）、綜合企業（2）、地產（1）、基建（1）、消費品（1）和消閒（1）等行業。要留意低估值的股票，一般需要較長時間才有機會出現價值修復，使估值回歸平均值。在這9隻股票中，選4隻作簡單分析：如喜歡業務較分散和過去派息穩定增長，可考慮長江基建（01038）和長和（00001），它們持有公用和必需消費品的業務，收入也分散至歐洲和澳洲，本地經濟周期對它的盈利影響較少，風險是脫歐、貨幣貶值和公共事業回報率下降對盈利的影響。如要求股息高的，可考慮滙控（00005），股息有6.6厘（筆者持有），上半年業績有改善，回購加上派息穩定，在低息環境有吸引力。但近期高層變動和經濟前景轉差，股價受壓。如認為必需消費品股有防守力，恒安國際（01044）是個選擇。產品屬必需消費品類別，盈利不太受經濟放緩影響，估值吸引，但中期業績顯示毛利率下降，盈利倒退，令投資者失望。短期股價有壓力，持有要有耐性，等待盈利重回升軌。

免責聲明：所提供資料僅供參考之用，並不構成投資建議及邀約，筆者已盡力確保所提供資料乃屬準確及可靠，但對其準確性及可靠性概不作出任何保證，亦毋須就由於任何不確或遺漏而導致之損失或損害負責。投資涉及風險，基金、股票價格可升亦可跌，過往業績並不代表將來表現。

作者為認可財務策劃師，擁有8年的基金投資組合管理經驗。他為《信報》/信網撰文，分享投資管理心得。

pfanwong@yahoo.com

Infoman

美國債市近日出現明顯轉向，各年期國債孳息均由谷底反彈。兩年期國債孳息由9月4日的1.43厘，升至本周五美市早段接近1.74厘；10年期及30年期國債亦分別由1.47厘與1.97厘，漲至1.77厘和2.21厘，創2016年第四季以來最大增幅。

由於國債、特別是長債往往會反映市場對長期經濟及通脹走勢的預期，因此當國債孳息發生較大變動，這很可能是市場預期逆轉的訊號，值得大家留意。

在某些時候，市場預期可大致反映實際狀況或資產價格的合理水平，在另一些時間卻與實況存在偏差，而後者往往是市場情緒偏向極端之時。不過，最終市場預期會自我修正，因為當事情的發展愈趨明顯，投資者獲得正確訊息的機會增多，便會調整其看法。

今次債息轉向正是反映市場對局勢的評估有變，筆者認為可能與幾個原因有關。

債券本身屬於避險資產，相關投資者能收到固定收益，只要發行人健在，投資者持有債券至到期時就能取回本金。

此外，由於債券短期價格波幅比股市小，因此當股市不濟，資金很多時會流入債市。大家經常會聽到資金從股市流到債市避險，但不幸地，當媒體廣泛出現有關報道，往往就是最極端的時候（普遍現象是債息急跌）。正當大家都憂慮中美兩國會否「攬炒」，突然又有消息指雙方有可能簽訂臨時協議，令市場的悲觀情緒隨之減弱，並反映到債券價格與債息之上。

數據優反映動力尚存

最新公布的一些經濟數據亦導致市場預期扭轉。美國商務部公布的8月份零售銷售上升0.4%，高於預期的0.2%；密歇根大學消費者信心指數則由8月的89.8，漲至9月份92，高於預期的91；美國最新的領先經濟指標下周出爐，上一次的數據已見明顯反彈，如果今次指數升幅再擴大的話，很可能意味着美國經濟增長動力仍在。

由於國債孳息反映投資者對未來經濟前景的看法，預期增長率愈高，孳息也會愈高，若市場之前對經濟的增長預測太過悲觀的話，最終孳息很可能向上修正。

另一個影響債券孳息的主要因素是通脹預期，而這受通脹數據走勢影響。美國勞工部公布的8月份CPI按月上升0.1%，按年則漲1.7%，然而，撇除食品及能源的核心CPI按月增加0.3%，按年則上升2.4%，均超出預期，儘管聯儲局較喜歡參考商務部公布的個人消費支出價格指數（PCE），惟勞工部的CPI也有一定參考價值。市場預期通脹愈高的話，國債孳息便會愈高，反之亦然。

goaljim00@gmail.com

Infoman

經濟增長慢、回報低已經是社會常態，今時今日另一個新常態就是負利率。現時共有價值17萬億美元的債券是處於負利率環境，這種情況是前所未有，3年前負利率的債券只有11.7萬億美元左右。近3年負利率債券數量大升，主要的負利率債券國家有意大利、日本、德國及法國等國家，有指美國有機會加入負利率國家的行列，聯儲局前主席格林斯平指美國實施負利率只屬時間問題，到時相信負利率債券數目將激增。

丹麥應該算是最早行負利率的國家，2012年7月最先實行負利率，歐羅區2014年6月實行，日本之後成為第二家推行負利率政策的主要央行。日本銀行2016年1月宣布實施負利率，將對金融機構存放在央行的超額準備收取利率為負0.1%的利息費用。

主要國家實施負利率政策原因大致可分為兩類，第一提振經濟、增加信貸、對抗通縮；第二熱錢流入國家為抑制資金流入推升本幣價值，不利本國出口，該等國家央行被迫跟進採取負利率政策以降低資本吸引力。

銀行難賺錢放貸意欲減

負利率的運作好簡單，就是央行針對商業銀行存放於央行的資金，不支付利息，反而要收取保管費。當央行對銀行存放央行的存款收取利息費用，商業銀行之後就會把原本存放於央行的資金轉向其他資產，因此將促使這些資產的報酬下降。資金首先去好的資產，如德國國債，現在資金更流向希臘。回想幾年前，希臘國債危機，國債沒人買，搞出歐債危機；但今天，希臘10年國債利率低過1厘，比美國更低，這又是什麼世界？

負利率對經濟好與壞眾說紛紜，有人說好、有人說不好；但可以確定的是，負利率一定令金融機構很難賺錢。央行推行負利率，金融機構過度存放資金於央行不但收不了息、更要付息，你借不出去就選擇不接受存款，銀行無法在正常息差情況下賺錢，就無法積累資本，因此無法擴張。

如果他們不能擴張，他們就不能提供信貸，向人們和企業提供信貸。因此沒有經濟增長原能力，就算銀行有錢亦不會借出去，經濟體亦不會以合理的速度增長。

投資方面，有人會說在負利率環境下，有錢會被「迫」去其他資產。不過，這也可以是一廂情願的想法，負利率不代表負回報。根據日本過去幾十年的經驗，低和負利率的債券並不一定轉化成負回報。事實上，如果你在1995年在日本債券市場投資100元，現在你應該有約187元左右，遠遠超過股票市場僅105元的回報。儘管收益率很低，但債券收益率曲線到時向上斜的，愈長的債愈高息，長債變短債，接近到期時變相可以賺價不賺息。

負利率好大機會一直下去，未來回報來源似乎來自槓桿，你如何做到加大槓桿原理，以最低利息借最多的錢，投入穩定現金流的東西，似乎是一個相當不錯的戰略。

本人及與本人有關之戶口沒有持有以上股份及相關衍生產品權益。

https://www.facebook.com/coffeehkej

Coffeehkej@gmail.com

Infoman

j電子版啦 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1o2zhp8UdL9XTOT6YXMzacDVnLF2YoX4U

Infoman

Can Memory be Inherited?

If in biology there are easy questions to answer, this should be among the simplest: can memory be inherited? The answer, it would seem, is a resounding “no”. Memories are stored in the brain in the form of neuronal connections or synapses, and there is no way to transfer this information to the DNA of germ cells, the inheritance we receive from our parents; we do not inherit the French they learned at school, but we must learn it for ourselves. And yet, for years there have been more and more indications that are undermining this classic dogma of biology: at least in some species, certain forms of memory can be transmitted to descendants.

In its broadest sense, the idea of memory applies to a phenotypic trait—measurable or observable—that is acquired during the life of the individual. At the time of the gestation of evolutionary theory, French naturalist Jean-Baptiste Lamarck became the champion of a theory of inheritance of acquired characteristics: for example, the development of a muscle through exercise. Lamarck’s theses were eventually refuted, but at the end of the 20th century research began to reveal that there does exist an inheritance of acquired traits, which was given the name of epigenetics (literally, “on top of genes”).

Environmental influences such as food, contaminants and others can leave chemical marks on genes that do not alter their sequence, but do modify their activity. Because these epigenetic marks could be passed on to the next generation through germ cell DNA, they represent a form of inheritable memory: children’s genes remember the environmental factors their parents were exposed to. Although epigenetics still conceals many of its secrets, those that are becoming known show that we have not yet measured its limits.

Transfer memories from one animal to another

In 1962 biologist James V. McConnell published a controversial experiment in which he claimed to pass on a learning process from one worm to another by feeding the latter the ground up remains of the former. McConnell was convinced that the engram of a memory—a hypothetical term for the physical trace of memory—resided in RNA molecules, and that these could transfer that memory from one animal to another.

To transfer a memory, UCLA researchers extracted RNA from marine snails and injected the RNA into other marine snails, and into Petri dishes containing neurons from other marine snails. Credit: UCLA Although McConnell’s experiments were discredited by the scientific community, shortly thereafter other studies were published that appeared to show a transfer of memories from one rodent to another through injections of brain extracts. In these cases too, negative results from other researchers called into question a theory that was already difficult to digest. And yet, in recent decades it has become known that not only are RNA molecules among the most common epigenetic mechanisms, but they are also involved in the formation of long-term memory.

Recently, McConnell’s hypothesis has been reborn from its ashes, regardless of whether the effects he described in his experiments were real or not. In May 2018, a study conducted by David Glanzman of the University of California, Los Angeles showed that the injection of an RNA extract from specimens of the sea slug Aplysia californica—a classic animal in memory research—trained to respond to an electrical stimulus is capable of transferring this learning to other untrained individuals. Moreover, Glanzman also showed that the RNA of the first animal stimulates the neurons of the second animal isolated on a Petri dish. “It’s as though we transferred the memory,” says Glanzman. “If memories were stored at synapses, there is no way our experiment would have worked.”

For now, other experts have been cautious in their assessment of Glanzman’s study. But it’s not the only one that points to mechanisms capable of transferring epigenetic engrams—that is, memories—from one individual to another. Moreover, other experiments have dispensed with the artificial method of injection, which is unlikely to occur in nature, showing that the presumed RNA memory could be inherited by children from their parents.

Inherit behaviors

For this to be possible, a pathway must first be opened for the transfer of RNA from neurons to germ cells, something that, according to the dogma, does not exist. But this is precisely what a team of researchers at the University of Maryland did in 2015 when they discovered that in the worm Caenorhabditis elegans certain strands of RNA produced in neurons can travel to germ cells and silence genes in the offspring, even up to 25 generations later.

In the worm Caenorhabditis elegans certain strands of RNA produced in neurons can travel to germ cells and silence genes in the offspring. Credit: HoPo In June 2019, a study published by scientists at Tel Aviv University (Israel) extended these results, demonstrating that RNA produced in worm neurons affects their offspring’s foraging behaviour through germ cell transmission, and that this learning is transferred over several generations. According to the study’s director, Oded Rechavi, “these findings go against one of the most basic dogmas in modern biology.”

The following month, a study conducted by Giovanni Bosco of the Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth (USA) showed that Drosophila melanogaster fruit flies can inherit from their parents egg-laying behaviour induced in parents by contact with wasps that parasitize their larvae; their descendants adopt the same behaviour without having experienced the threat themselves.

However, it should be stressed that what is observed in worms or flies does not necessarily apply to humans. But it could. As early as 2013, a study by Emory University showed that the fear induced in mice of a particular smell can also be transmitted to their offspring by epigenetic mechanisms. And a mouse is already much more like us.

“Does this happen in animals other than fruit flies and worms?” asks Bosco. “Yes, I am convinced that it does, and we just need someone clever to think of the right experiment to do in order to actually test it, in humans for example,” he tells OpenMind. “A new avenue is now finally becoming accessible to experimentation in a manner where we can start to understand molecular mechanisms and specific molecules that allow animals to inherit particular types of behaviour and memory.”

Javier Yanes

@yanes68

Infoman

Millennials have an average of $28,000 in debt—and the biggest source isn’t student loans

Megan Leonhardt Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 11:13 AM EDT It may seem like student loans and millennials are inextricably linked. But a new survey shows that education bills are not the leading source of debt among this generation.

Millennials (defined here as ages 23 to 38) have racked up an average of $27,900 in personal debt, excluding mortgages, according to Northwestern Mutual’s 2019 Planning & Progress Study. The findings are based on a survey conducted by The Harris Poll of over 2,000 U.S. adults.

The biggest source of debt? Credit card bills. And that’s a “troubling” trend, Chantel Bonneau, a financial advisor with Northwestern Mutual, tells CNBC Make It.

“One issue that a lot of millennials have is that they have not wanted to sacrifice their lifestyle, even though they have student loans or lower incomes,” Bonneau says. “That has left us in this spot where they’ve accumulated a significant amount of credit card debt.”

That’s especially concerning because it’s important to save for future financial goals, such as buying a home or building a retirement fund, when you’re young and have time to let compound interest grow your money.

But because millennials are balancing both student loans and credit card debt, “the likelihood that millennials are prioritizing retirement in any meaningful way as an overall generation seems unlikely,” Bonneau says.

Yet for many millennials, the slide into debt goes beyond just lifestyle creep. Wages are not keeping up as day-to-day costs continue to soar, according to Alissa Quart, executive director of the Economic Hardship Reporting Project and author of “Squeezed: Why Our Families Can’t Afford America.”

The average paycheck only has the same purchasing power it did 40 years ago, a Pew Research report found. Almost two-thirds of millennials say they’re living paycheck to paycheck and only 38% feel financially stable, according to Schwab’s 2019 Modern Wealth report.

Student loans are also a factor. The number of households with student loan debt doubled from 1998 to 2016, Pew Research Center found. The median amount of loan debt millennials carried was $19,000, significantly higher than Gen Xers’ balance of $12,800 at the same age.

While it may be easy to criticize millennials for simply spending too much, it’s important to remember that there are other issues at play, Terri Kallsen, Schwab’s executive vice president of investor services, tells CNBC Make It. “Spending is not the enemy that we might think that it is,” she says.

Infoman

美國聯儲局在香港時間周四凌晨2時公布議息結果，決定再減息四分一厘，把聯邦基金目標利率下調至介乎1.75至2厘，符合市場預期，是繼7月底以來，連續兩次減息。美股在議息結果公布後表現反覆，道指跌幅一度收窄，然後輾轉急挫逾200點，但收市溫和倒升，因為聯儲局主席鮑威爾在會後對記者稱，美國經濟仍然強勁，暗示今年甚至明年都無須再減息，但局方可能有需要擴張資產負債表，消息帶動銀行股股價上揚。

議息聲明顯示，支持減息的委員有7人，堪薩斯聯儲銀行總裁喬治(Esther George)及波士頓聯儲銀行總裁羅森格倫(Eric Rosengren)則投反對票，認為現時毋須減息。另外，聖路易斯聯儲銀行總裁布拉德(James Bullard)認為應減息半厘。

聯儲局同時公布最新的利率及經濟展望。從利率點陣圖所見，一眾官員預測今年底的聯邦基金目標利率中位數為1.875厘，意味今年內將不再減息，但有7名官員預期年底前再減0.25厘。至於明年底，預測利率中位數為1.875厘。

上調今年經濟失業率預測

今次是自2008年金融海嘯後，聯儲局10年來第二次減息。市場關注貿易紛爭帶來的不確定性，將影響經濟增長。另外，鮑威爾在7月底上一次會議宣布減息後，聲稱僅屬「中期調節」，不代表寬鬆周期已啟動，投資者關注鮑威爾在記者會上，對今次減息的說法。

議息聲明指出，根據環球經濟發展決定減息，就業市場繼續強勁，失業率維持在低水平，經濟繼續穩步前行，通脹壓力仍溫和。局方會採取適當措施，保證美國經濟持續擴張，令就業市場保持強勁及通脹處於「對稱性的2%目標」附近，未來將會繼續監察各項數據。

在最新的季度經濟展望，聯儲局上調今年經濟增長預測至2.2%，較6月時預測的2.1%為高；明年的經濟增長則維持在2%。至於今年通脹率預測保持在1.5%不變，並展望失業率略升至3.7%。

議息公布後道指跌幅曾擴大

股市方面，議息聲明公布前，美股三大指數偏軟，議息結果公布後道指曾擴大至跌211點，標指則在3000點關爭持。美國聯邦快遞(FedEx)周三調低2020年盈利預測，公司股價收市大挫12.92%。

道指收市倒升36點，標指微漲0.03%，納指跌0.11%。歐股方面，法德股分別升0.09%及0.14%，英股低收0.09%。亞股表現不一，日股收市跌0.18%。

雖然市場預期聯儲局會減息，但因通脹壓力及薪酬增長溫和，料出手不會太進取，美滙趨強，美滙指數尾段升0.32%，報98.58。美元兌日圓升0.33%，報108.46。歐羅兌美元報1.1026，跌0.42%。

早前沙地阿拉伯石油生產設施遇襲，美國總統特朗普下令財政部加強對伊朗制裁。由於沙地能源部長稱原油生產將於9月底回復至受襲前水平，拖累油價周二大挫，周三跌勢持續。倫敦布蘭特期油及紐約期油曾挫2.3%及2.8%，其後跌幅收窄，美市收市，布蘭特期油每桶報63.6美元，跌1.5%。紐約期油跌2.1%，每桶報58.11美元。市場擔心原油價格上升引發通脹，黃金有對沖需求，紐約12月期金每盎斯收報1515.8美元，升0.2%。

數據方面，美國上周MBA抵押貸款申請指數跌0.1%，此前一周升2%。當地8月新屋動工漲12%，以年率計為136.4萬間，多過市場預期；8月建築許可增長7.7%，以年率計為141.9萬間，同樣多於市場預期，兩者年率均創逾12年新高。

Infoman

Tech Policy / AI Ethics

The world’s top deepfake artist: ‘Wow, this is developing more rapidly than I thought.’

Hao Li sees deepfake technology as moving quickly toward being indistinguishable from reality. by Patrick Howell O'Neill

Sep 18, 2019 Screengrab from Putin deepfake DEEPFAKE BY HAO LI

AI-powered deepfake video technology is advancing faster than even some of the world’s top experts thought possible.

Its stunning trajectory means that within a few years, perfect and virtually undetectable deepfakes may be possible, USC professor and deepfake pioneer Hao Li said today at MIT Technology Review’s EmTech conference.

Li is collaborating closely with Hany Farid of UC Berkeley, one of the world’s best digital forensics scientists. The collaboration reflects both competition—after all, Farid’s job is to detect the kind of deepfakes Li creates—and, in a bigger sense, close cooperation.

“We are working together on an approach that assumes that deepfakes will be perfect,” Li said. “Our guess that in two to three years, it’s going to be perfect. There will be no way to tell if it’s real or not, so we have to take a different approach.”

Li also runs a startup called Pinscreen focused on business and entertainment uses of the tech. His team was behind the wizadry that put Paul Walker into Furious 7, part of the Fast and Furious film franchise, after Walker died in a car crash. In a sign that Hollywood’s knocks are getting louder, he’s currently working on a Will Smith movie project. But Li has complex feelings about the future of the technology he’s working so closely on.

MIT TECHNOLOGY REVIEW “One theory on why it hasn’t caused even more harm yet is simply because the quality isn’t there yet,” Li said. “But it will get there. And a second theory is that the technology still requires a little bit of work from users to create really good deepfakes. But it’s funny because a few months ago I said it may be years until that moment where it’s easy for anyone to do this. No one realized there was this Chinese app that came out a week later. I thought, ‘Wow, this is developing more rapidly than I thought.’”

The app is Zao, a face-swap program that, with a single photograph, can let you place yourself in big television shows and movies. The app, which is monstrously popular in China, is at the center of a debate about privacy and unintended consequences.

Allan Xia @AllanXia In case you haven't heard, #ZAO is a Chinese app which completely blew up since Friday. Best application of 'Deepfake'-style AI facial replacement I've ever seen.

Here's an example of me as DiCaprio (generated in under 8 secs from that one photo in the thumbnail) 🤯 Embedded video

28.8K 2:32 PM - Sep 1, 2019 · Auckland, New Zealand Twitter Ads info and privacy

14.4K people are talking about this

It’s a powerful tool that shot up to the top of China’s App Store for obvious reasons. Who doesn’t want to instantly become Leonardo DiCaprio?

Is it perfect? Far from it. But the fact that so much can be done within a few seconds on anyone’s smartphone signals just how fast deepfake technology is advancing—and just how many crucial questions remain unanswered

Infoman

原油價格因沙地石油設施受襲而衝高，但待設施恢復後，油價還是很大機會回落至先前水平，因為新能源技術未來只會愈來愈成熟。但地球上另一重要資源，近日也不斷攀升，不錯，說的就是記憶體晶片DRAM和NAND。

科網裏有很多板塊，除了今年表現突出的雲端與電子支付，人工智能、大數據、社交媒體、智能手機等也十分有趣。經歷過去一年多的調整後，不少硬件股份於近月重新轉強，如記憶體晶片廠商美光（Micron）、三星電子、SK海力士（SK Hynix）等同創出或接近52周新高。掌握全球最厲害晶片生產技術的台積電也在此列。此外，近日不少中港上市的智能手機供應鏈股份，亦同步轉強。上周蘋果發布的新iPhone，市場反應也不錯，聽說訂單早已爆滿。誰說智能手機已經開到荼蘼？再來一家內地新晉網購企業，公布第二季業績後，個多月內上升近五成。誰說內地網購大局已定，未來只會穩定增長？

已說過許多次，現代科網企業的一大特點，在於其不斷變化。一種產品未變老，便已在開發新產品。一些新的商業機會（如電子支付），固然增長很快，在一些行了幾年甚至10年的產品趨勢，也能通過產品革新來滿足市場需求變化。

例如晶片有周期，但大體仍是在一個大型的上升周期內，因為未來記憶體的使用還會愈來愈多。全球智能手機出貨量已夠多了，但還是會有一代又一代的功能更新，它日後更可能變成一種高黏性的產品，綑綁消費者對電子支付、遊戲等的軟件需求。

科網巨擘組跨國生態

網購嗎？上一代消費者是上網搜尋貨品，未來可能是網店向商戶推薦。大數據把你了解得夠深了，一打開App便彈出你感興趣的資訊，毋須不斷搜索找尋。這種商業模式有機會成功嗎？Costco就是靠這模式從沃爾瑪（Walmart）手上奪走市場份額的。網購未來仍有變化，因為消費者的需求也在不斷改變。

回到美股，一直很悶的Alphabet（Google母公司）和Facebook，近日也開始靠近52周新高，市場是否在打賭美國經濟其實不壞，廣告生意仍大有可為？股市何時會進入最後升浪？大概是連最大的幾隻巨擘也開始加速。雲端和電子支付今年表現不錯，相反幾大巨擘和硬件卻一直調整，直到近月才重上升軌。科網是繼續板塊輪動，還是在不久後全線上升，絕對值得投資者留意。

投資者常說恒指恒指，為何要故步自封？納指也不全面，全球股市裏的那些科網巨擘，其實早已形成了一個「全球指數」。美股和中概股在美國，幾家中國的在香港，晶片股則在韓國、台灣。股價表現和當地股市沒大關係，卻跟千里以外上市的其他科網股有關係，升跌有序，這才是投資者該注視的，而不是每天只盯着香港香港。為何稱為全球指數，而不是全球科技股指數？因為科技股已包括全球最大市值的十家八家企業。

筆者為證監會9號業務持牌人

hcl.hkej@gmail.com

（編者按：郝承林最新著作《致富新世代3──你也可以的穩健發財派》現已發售）

歡迎訂購：實體書、電子書

Infoman

9月17日，周二。沙地阿拉伯石油設施遇襲，老畢在意的並非油價升幾多，而是對通脹極度敏感的債市有何反應。即晚（周一）所見，美國債息下跌而非上升，反映避險情緒壓倒債市對油價帶動通脹升溫的憂慮。沿此路進，地緣政局愈緊張，債息回頭的機會愈大。

美國與伊朗若真的爆發軍事衝突，資金一窩蜂湧入債市避險，則股市中所有板塊的相關性都會去到接近1，再以近日引起熱議的板塊輪動（sector rotations）作分析框架，恐怕派不上用場。問題是，中東局勢猜無可猜，不能隨便假定最壞情況必然發生。上周被形容為8.5個標準差事件的增長股/價值股輪動，由債息抽升觸發，長債孳息率若能穩定下來，板塊輪動理論上將無以為繼，但真的如此嗎？

重拾舊歡

摩根大通策略師Marko Kolanovic是老畢近期跟進得比較密的市場論家，睇勢有兩道之餘，涵蓋面也廣，在債息牽動股市、強弱勢板塊不轉則已一轉驚人的當下，此君意見別具參考價值。你不一定要認同他的看法，但其觀點總能引發投資者從另一角度思考市場。

Kolanovic於最新評論中指出，在研究過油價與美股之間的關係後，發現只有當油價升至每桶80至85美元時，標普500指數才會開始感受到高油價的負面影響。換句話說，紐約期油要從目前約62美元至少再漲三成，「油魔」效應始會在美股出現。油價會從現水平升三成嗎？Kolanovic以一句談何容易作答。

歷史會否重演從來說不準，惟這番話足以證明，摩通當紅策略師與許多朋友一樣，並不認同油價有力挑戰80美元，遑論重返百算。然而，值得注意的不是此君看好或看淡油價，而是他認為油價即使處於目前水平，亦足以令投資者與能源股重拾舊歡，為增長向價值讓路增添動力。

當頭棒喝

標指能源板塊9月份雖反彈逾6%，但能源股過去一年仍累跌一成八，在美股各大板塊中表現最差。那等於說，經過上周投資者極速換馬及沙地遇襲事件刺激油價單日暴升後，能源板塊依然遙遙落後其他股份。假設地緣政局維持緊張，戰爭卻非一觸即發，油價既能享受早被遺忘的風險溢價，債息亦不虞迅速回試月初低位，那麼能源股「鹹魚翻生」就非癡人說夢。

老畢覺得，能源股所以長期備受冷落，很大程度源於市場聚焦環球經濟疲弱「摧毀」石油需求（demand destruction），對地緣政局緊張為供應帶來的潛在影響卻視而不見。沙地設施遇襲令石油供應瞬間每天損失數百萬桶，這記當頭棒喝，必能促使市場重新審視對油市供求的判斷。

許多Long / Short Trades都是以板塊為對象賭方向的，所謂Long Growth / Short Value，落實到交易層面，往往就是買入軟件股/沽空油氣股，順風順水時兩頭賺不知幾過癮，惟勢頭何時逆轉，永遠冇人拍膊頭通知閣下。若非如此，老畢也不必在9月9日強制性沽售三隻美國增長股，當真有口話人冇口話自己，在下何嘗不是板塊輪動的受害者？

轉運非難

美國極鷹派國家安全顧問博爾頓被侵侵怒炒後，美伊關係看似出現轉機，地緣緊張局勢一度降溫。沙地事件發生後，形勢急轉直下，投資者連心理準備亦來不切做，最終會點估嚟無謂，但市場顯然已不敢低估地緣風險。中美下月初恢復高級別經貿磋商，倘若一如傳聞，在較易取得共識的問題上達成協議，油市需求面話唔定都會改觀，能源股轉運並非想像般難。

（編者按：畢老林最新著作《我的投資日記》現已發售）

歡迎訂購：實體書、電子書

Infoman

The world of connected consumer electronics, IoT, and smart devices is growing faster than ever with tens of billions of connected devices streaming and sharing data wirelessly over the Internet, but how secure is it? As we connect everything from coffee maker to front-door locks and cars to the Internet, we're creating more potential—and possibly more dangerous—ways for hackers to wreak havoc. Believe me, there are over 100 ways a hacker can ruin your life just by compromising your wireless router—a device that controls the traffic between your local network and the Internet, threatening the security and privacy of a wide range of wireless devices, from computers and phones to IP Cameras, smart TVs and connected appliances.

In its latest study titled "SOHOpelessly Broken 2.0," Independent Security Evaluators (ISE) discovered a total of 125 different security vulnerabilities across 13 small office/home office (SOHO) routers and Network Attached Storage (NAS) devices, likely affecting millions. "Today, we show that security controls put in place by device manufacturers are insufficient against attacks carried out by remote adversaries. This research project aimed to uncover and leverage new techniques to circumvent these new security controls in embedded devices," the researchers said. List of Affected Router Vendors SOHO routers and NAS devices tested by the researchers are from the following manufacturers: Buffalo Synology TerraMaster Zyxel Drobo ASUS and its subsidiary Asustor Seagate QNAP Lenovo Netgear Xiaomi Zioncom (TOTOLINK) According to the security researchers, all of these 13 widely-used devices they tested had at least one web application vulnerability that could allow a remote attacker to gain remote shell access or access to the administrative panel of the affected device. hacking wifi router software These vulnerabilities range from cross-site scripting (XSS), cross-site request forgery (CSRF), buffer overflow, operating system command injection (OS CMDi), authentication bypass, SQL injection (SQLi), and file upload path traversal vulnerabilities. Full Control Over Devices Without Authentication Researchers said they successfully obtained root shells on 12 of the devices, allowing them to have complete control over the affected devices, 6 of which contained flaws that would enable attackers to gain full control over a device remotely and without authentication.

These affected business and home routers are Asustor AS-602T, Buffalo TeraStation TS5600D1206, TerraMaster F2-420, Drobo 5N2, Netgear Nighthawk R9000, and TOTOLINK A3002RU. This new report, SOHOpelessly Broken 2.0, is a follow-up study, SOHOpelessly Broken 1.0, published by the ISE security firm in 2013, when they disclosed a total of 52 vulnerabilities in 13 SOHO routers and NAS devices from vendors including TP-Link, ASUS, and Linksys. Since SOHOpelessly Broken 1.0, researchers said they found a few newer IoT devices implementing some useful security mechanisms in place, like address-space layout randomization (ASLR), functionalities that hinder reverse engineering, and integrity verification mechanisms for HTTP requests. However, some things have not changed since SOHOpelessly Broken 1.0, like many IoT devices still lack basic web application protection features, like anti-CSRF tokens and browser security headers, which can greatly enhance the security posture of web applications and the underlying systems they interact with. ISE researchers responsibly reported all of the vulnerabilities they discovered to affected device manufacturers, most of which promptly responded and already took security measures to mitigate these vulnerabilities, which have already received CVE Ids. However, some device manufacturers, including Drobo, Buffalo Americas, and Zioncom Holdings, did not respond to the researchers' findings. Have something to say about this article? Comment below or share it with us on Facebook, Twitter or our LinkedIn Group. ShareShareComments SHARE  Stay Informed — Newsletter Sign Up Sign up for THN newsletter and get our latest stories delivered straight to your inbox. Email Latest Stories The Definitive RFP Templates for EDR/EPP and APT P The Definitive RFP Templates for EDR/EPP and APT P... Warning: Researcher Drops phpMyAdmin Zero-Day Affe Warning: Researcher Drops phpMyAdmin Zero-Day Affe... United States Sues Edward Snowden and You'd be Sur United States Sues Edward Snowden and You'd be Sur... Thousands of Google Calendars Possibly Leaking Pri Thousands of Google Calendars Possibly Leaking Pri... Related Stories

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