Uk Public-sector reform

Economist (UK) 21/9/2024

“CHOICE IS CHOICE!” exclaimed Tony Blair. Shortly after the 2001 election, the prime minister had gathered his advisers at Chequers, his grace-and-favour residence, to discuss public-sector reform. Three principles—setting standards, devolving budgets and reducing barriers between professions—had already been established. But someone had objected to a fourth, the idea that parents and patients should be offered choice. Perhaps “preference” would go down better with the trade unions and the Labour Party? “Why mince our words?” asked Sir Tony.

Labour has entered office, as it did in 1997, with public services in a mostly dire state. Its prospects at the next election in five years’ time will depend, perhaps above all, on how much voters feel that has changed. The Blair government’s approach was to develop a rigid set of ideas about how to run schools and hospitals and apply them rigorously. The Starmer government’s plans are, at best, inchoate.

To see why that could become a problem, it helps to recall New Labour’s approach. Among those in the room at Chequers was Sir Michael Barber, an education adviser whom Sir Tony would soon poach to run a new “prime minister’s delivery unit”. Having spent years trying to reform failing schools, Sir Michael was disdainful of the idea—popular among unions and the wider Labour movement—that teachers or doctors should simply be trusted to run things. Too often, that meant accepting mediocrity.

At a minimum, Sir Michael argued, ministers needed three things: a clear strategy, a view of standards and capacity, and the data to monitor outcomes. This became the basis of the delivery unit. Ministers would be hauled into Number 10 and grilled on progress against tightly defined targets like reducing waiting times or improving exam results. They, in turn, published league tables and penalised underperformers. Underpinning all of this was a belief that the left had got two big things wrong: seeing public-sector workers as motivated purely by altruism and publicsector users as passive beneficiaries.

The method produced some brilliant results. Waiting times for operations fell much faster in England than in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, which all rejected the reforms. English schools pulled ahead of Welsh ones. One study found that the drive to reduce A&E waiting times saved thousands of lives, especially among those who had suffered strokes. New Labour proved to be adept at turning bad schools and hospitals into adequate ones.

The approach was less good at freeing adequate or good performers to innovate, says Ben Glover of Demos, a think-tank. It could be “stultifying”. It also tilted spending towards short-term goals: in the case of health care, more money went into hospitals than into prevention of illness. It led to some gaming of the rules. And although results improved many doctors and teachers disliked the mix of “targets and terror”.

If New Labour’s ideas risked being too rigid, the current government’s problem is the reverse. It is hard to discern well-developed ideas about public services in the speeches of Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, and Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the exchequer. High-profile failures

nd in areas like probation have made politicians wary of applying market methods to the public sector. If ministers do talk about reform, many prefer to talk about making services more “personalised” and “relational”, voguish but vague ideas developed in local government.

The government’s missions, which include ones focused on health and opportunity, are very high-level. They lay out nearand longer-term goals—such as reducing waiting lists and improving healthy life expectancy—with little sense of how they will be reached or how resources will be prioritised. On September 12th, responding to a grim review into the National Health Service ( NHS), the government floated some ideas about developing financing models that would shift money towards prevention. But there will be no detailed plan for NHS reform until next year.

There have been some signals of the government’s preferences. Ministers are closer to the trade unions than in Sir Tony’s day. Ms Reeves has agreed to large pay rises for public-sector workers without asking for anything in return. In education, Labour has decided to end one-word judgments of schools by Ofsted, a regulator. Unions had long argued that they put teachers under extreme strain. Yet they were hugely popular with parents. The problems could have been tackled by making changes to the inspection process and how the judgments were used, says Nick Davies of the Institute for Government, another think-tank. It is hard to imagine Sir Tony, who saw extending choice to parents as critical to winning the support of middle classes, making the same decision.

The absence of a clear strategy for the public sector is a big risk for the new government. Before raising taxes to fund the NHS, Sir Tony insisted that the government had a strong case that it would be “investment with reform”. The current government cannot simply reheat New Labour’s ideas: for one thing, the public finances are in much worse shape. But without a philosophy of its own and with tax rises expected in Ms Reeves’s budget next month, it will be vulnerable to attack. ■

通過分享 PressReader

通過新聞連接世界

Infoman

The Lib Dem’s right wing vs left wing

Economist (UK) 21/9/2024

IT WAS ALL worth it. The paddle-boarding, the alpaca-stroking, the thrusting in the Zumba class, the makeover on morning television, the rollercoasters, the falling off the surfboard, the falling off the paddleboard, the falling off an obstacle course, the bungee-jumping. Every gimmick that Sir Ed Davey, the usually serious-to-the-point-of-pompous leader of the Liberal Democrats, endured during the election campaign was worth it when, on July 4th, the party enjoyed its best result in a century.

The Lib Dems won 72 seats, snatching 60 of them from the Conservatives. Nearly all their gains came from the loveliest, and most prosperous, parts of southern England. The party’s task at the next election is to replace the Tories as the main opposition. The party finished in second place in 27 seats, 21 of which are Conservative-held. Conquer them and the two parties would be almost-level pegging for the first time since the Edwardian era. “Let’s finish the job,” said Sir Ed at the party’s annual conference in Brighton on September 17th.

As a strategy, it is clear. But the consequences of pursuing it are overlooked. Britain has a two-party system designed, broadly, to produce one party more to the left economically and another more to the right economically. Labour has sewn up the left. The Conservatives have only a loose grip on the right. There is only one place for the Lib Dems to go on economics: right.

Pointing this out to a Liberal Democrat triggers outrage or confusion. The party’s MPs and activists put themselves somewhere between the centre and beyond Labour’s left on the political spectrum. Partly this is a trauma response: bad things happen to Liberal Democrats when they drift right economically. In 2004 high-flyers in the party published the “Orange Book”. It was a radical manifesto, which ranged from a tax lock, insisting that no one should ever pay a marginal tax rate above 50%, to turning the National Health Service into an insurance system.

The Orange Book did not have a happy ending. Its authors enjoyed mixed fortunes. Three, Sir Ed among them, have become party leader. Others were less lucky. One ended up in jail for perverting the course of justice. Another’s career ended after he was embroiled in a scandal that the now-defunct News of the World described as a “bizarre sex act too revolting to describe”. More important, the party’s economic shift to the right paved the way for it to enter into a coalition with the Conservative Party in 2010. Voters deserted the party at the next election in 2015. Luring them back took both the best part of a decade and Sir Ed repeatedly hurling himself into bodies of water.

It is natural, then, that shifting right makes Lib Dems nervous. Yet Britain’s third party does not have to move far. It may be socially liberal, but on the economy it is already further to the right than people think. Ostensibly left-wing policy is often, on closer inspection, anything but. For instance, Sir Ed wants the very richest to pay more inheritance tax. The example given by his team is that estates worth tens of millions often avoid inheritance tax altogether. A crackdown on the mega-rich would allow lower rates for those lucky enough to own a £1.5m home in, say, Oxfordshire. The most likely result would be that the extremely rich find ways to avoid paying, and that prosperous Lib Dem voters in the home counties toast Sir Ed’s generosity.

Opposing VAT on private schools is another case in point. This is a matter of principle, according to Sir Ed. Politically, it makes sense too. The sort of parent who would send their child private is likely to be a prosperous professional who lives in the south-east. In short, the archetype of the new Lib Dem voter.

The bulk of Lib Dems may feel closer to their Labour peers. But it is Tory-to-Lib-Dem switchers who will determine the party’s fate. The seats gained in July include some of the most conservative places in the country, such as Surrey Heath, a wealthy web of commuter villages outside London. Tory voters who jumped ship to the Lib Dems were ever so slightly more economically right-wing than the ones who opted for Reform UK, according to Paula Surridge from Bristol University. Clinging on to them is key.

From FBPE to FDP

Drifting right need not interfere with the long-held concerns of Britain’s third party. Why should returning to the EU necessarily be a left-wing thing? European integration was a centre-right project, with a cabal of Christian Democrats trying to ensure that the continent did not do that again. It evolved into a neoliberal project, with strict rules constraining state action. Electoral reform, another long-held Lib Dem goal, is not an inherently leftie project either. An obsession of sandal-wearing, pony-tailed pensioners who dominate Lib Dem land it may be. But it is also a preoccupation of Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK.

The Liberal Democrats are left-wing in one crucial way. They want—or, rather, need—a second Labour term. The party does not control its own destiny. Labour must be competent enough for wavering centre-right voters to be prepared to gamble on the Lib Dems, and thereby give Sir Keir Starmer another term, rather than reverting to the Tories. Meanwhile, the Conservatives must stay crackers. If the state of the Tory party’s leadership election is anything to go by, Sir Ed is in luck.

What the Lib Dems do have to decide is if they are happy to ensconce themselves on the centre-right. For those members and MPs who wince at memories of the coalition, or who were never on board with the Orange Book, it is an uneasy shift. For all the campaign gimmicks, Sir Ed admitted one idea went too far. An aide thought it would be fun for him to shove his arm up a cow. Mercifully, party wallahs thought better of it. Some things are too much, even for a Lib Dem. Drifting further right may be another. ■

通過分享 PressReader

通過新聞連接世界

Infoman

Bank of England Holds Off on Rate Cut

PAUL HANNON AND ALEXANDRA WEXLER

The Wall Street Journal 20 Sep 2024 U.K. institution opts for a more cautious approach after Fed’s half-point reduction

LONDON—The Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged on Thursday, taking a more cautious approach than the Federal Reserve in loosening the restraints it imposed on the economy to tame inflation.

While it opted to stand pat at 5%, the U.K.’s central bank said it is likely to follow up on an August cut over coming months in anticipation of a decline in inflation to its 2% target late next year, but also said it is concerned by the still-rapid pace at which services prices and wages are rising.

The Fed on Wednesday lowered the federal-funds rate for the first time since March 2020, by half a percentage point. Officials signaled they are likely to cut the key rate again in coming meetings as worries about inflation ease and concerns about the job market grow.

But the BOE all but ruled out a move of that size or a quick succession of smaller cuts.

“We should be able to reduce rates gradually over time,” said Gov. Andrew Bailey. “But it’s vital that inflation stays low, so we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much.”

The Fed’s decision to trim rates by a larger amount than most analysts anticipated until just a few days ago is a fresh challenge for the BOE and other central banks that have signaled a more gradual approach.

Responding to the changed outlook for interest rates, the British pound has appreciated against the U.S. dollar over recent weeks and made further gains after Bailey’s comments, reaching a 2½-year high of $1.33. Any further increases will add to downward pressure on inflation by lowering the prices of many imports, but will also make it more difficult for Britain’s exporters—including its large tourist industry—to sell to U.S. customers.

While eight of the BOE’s nine rate setters voted to leave borrowing costs unchanged, a record of their meeting said that most favored further rate cuts, albeit at a cautious pace. Before the rate announcement, investors expected the BOE’s next move to come in November. The BOE noted that the November meeting would involve “a full assessment of recent and prospective developments” as new forecasts become available.

Norway’s central bank also left its key rate unchanged on Thursday and said it won’t cut this year. Coupled with the BOE’s decision, that is a sign that many European policymakers are less convinced they have tamed inflation than their U.S. counterparts. Taiwan’s central bank also stayed pat on Thursday, as did Turkey’s.

Brazil has already seen a revival in inflation after a series of rate cuts that ended in May and its central bank decided to raise its key rate just hours after the Fed’s move. Most policymakers would want to avoid that kind of volatility in borrowing costs, which can make it difficult for households and businesses to make financial plans.

By contrast, South Africa on Thursday became the first central bank to follow the Fed’s move to lower borrowing costs but again was more cautious. The South African Reserve Bank cut the main repo rate to 8% from a 15-year high of 8.25%, and Gov. Lesetja Kganyago said rates should stabilize “slightly above 7%” next year.

“Global conditions have become more favorable, but there are still risks,” he said. “A soft landing is looking more likely, after the worst inflation surge in a generation, but it is not inevitable.”

Although the U.K.’s headline inflation rate is close to the BOE’s target, its policymakers are unsure whether it will settle there. Some fear that a still-tight jobs market will keep pushing wages sharply higher, pressuring businesses in labor-intensive sectors to raise their prices at such a rate that inflation remains above target for many months.

To counter that outcome, BOE policymakers said the key rate will have to be high enough to damp demand for some time. But there are signs that high borrowing costs are taking a heavy toll on the economy, which stalled in June and July after a surprisingly strong start to the year. The BOE said it expects growth to resume but at a weaker pace.

Weaker oil prices will likely reinforce the impact of the stronger pound in reducing some prices, suggesting policymakers may have less cause to worry about inflation than they did just a few months ago.

The BOE also set a 100-billion-pound target—equivalent to around $132 billion—for reducing the size of its bond portfolio in the year through September 2025.

The bonds were acquired through the quantitative easing programs the BOE undertook in an effort to boost the economy and safeguard the financial system between 2009 and 2021.

The BOE began to reduce its bond portfolio as inflation surged in 2022. But unlike other leading central banks, it has done so partly through sales of bonds, rather than waiting until they mature. Since bond prices have fallen in recent years as interest rates have risen, the BOE makes a loss on the sales, which has to be paid for by the U.K. government and therefore adds to its debts.

But while the BOE’s target for quantitative tightening is unchanged in the coming year, a larger share will be completed by letting bonds mature and only £13 billion will be carried out through sales, reducing the government’s losses.

Shared via PressReader

connecting people through news

Infoman

Entrepreneur - Embrace boldness to fail, Diversity, team building, playing in law, bargain price, lifelong career

1) Failure is part of success Xavier Niel emphasizes that the path to success is paved with failures, citing his recent business setbacks as examples.

2) Entrepreneurship requires boldness To become a billionaire, one must be a little crazy, break away from conventions, and have the courage to start new ventures.

3) Diversity in entrepreneurship: Niel criticizes the lack of diversity in France's entrepreneurial landscape, calling for more women and people from diverse backgrounds to lead innovation.

4) Surround yourself with the right people: Trusting others and building a strong team is essential for entrepreneurial success.

5) Embrace failure: Businesses often fail, and it’s important to move on quickly, treating it like a game.

6) Playing within the law: Niel shares advice to "push the boundaries" of the law without breaking it, citing examples from companies like Uber and Airbnb.

7)Public image and accessibility: Niel maintains an approachable and relatable public image, despite being a billionaire, and engages with his audience in a fun and light-hearted manner.

8) Defender of purchasing power: He prides himself on disrupting the telecom industry with Free, lowering prices, and increasing purchasing power for consumers.

9) Entrepreneur as a lifelong career Niel warns against the false promises on social media that becoming a billionaire is easy, advocating instead for finding one's personal path to happiness, whether that means becoming an entrepreneur or not.

Infoman

Free創辦人的小建議：如何成為億萬富翁

《費加羅報》 2024年9月20日

「我是這個世界上最大的失敗者！」這是Xavier Niel在奧林匹亞劇院的舞台上自我批評的一幕。這位法國第9大富豪（根據《福布斯》2024年富豪榜）在台前2000名觀眾面前列舉了他最近的失敗經歷。「一年前，我想收購M6：慘敗。我氣得發狂，於是競選取代這個頻道：我們被打得落花流水。我想收購CGR影院：失敗。Casino集團？啪！崩盤。」然而，這位商人堅信，他的信息很明確：「成功的道路是由失敗鋪就的。」

這個「啟發人心」的信息是Xavier Niel在這個巴黎著名音樂廳中傳遞的教訓之一。9月18日星期三，他舉辦了一場標題吸引眼球但內容充滿承諾的1小時培訓：「如何成為億萬富翁」。這場活動介於個人發展講座和單口相聲之間，充滿了嚴肅的創業建議，穿插著笑話和幽默的視頻短片。同時，這也是推銷他自傳《一顆鬧事的心》（Flammarion，19.99歐元）的好方法。這次表演與這位與眾不同的商人——互聯網與克雷泰伊的孩子的性格相符。他在刻板的超富圈中顯得格格不入，並在社交媒體上維持其「挑釁者」的形象。

不墨守成規

「能站在舞台上的億萬富翁，只有他做得到。」Niel集團的一位高層微笑著說。她對這場滿座的演出並不感到驚訝。「觀眾來看的是這個『人物』，」像Vélan這樣的觀眾「好奇」地想聽聽這個他覺得「有趣、風趣且迷人」的人生經歷。Pierre和Hippolyte，20歲和28歲的年輕人，並不期望有多麼嚴肅的內容，他們只是來「開心一笑」。但對於其他人，如26歲的學生Brice來說，這場演出是認真的：「我想衝著億萬富翁的目標去，至少能賺個百萬。」他來這裡是為了尋求建議。

在場內，有很多30歲以下的年輕人，但不僅如此。甚至還有一位準備轉行的未來前部長。而且現場男性居多，這是「一個問題」，Niel憤慨地說。「在法國，創業者大多是白人男性，而且大多來自商學院。我們需要女性，需要多樣性。」他強調，正是差異帶來了最有利於創新的激勵。相比於「一群看起來瘋狂的傢伙」和「穿西裝的商學院畢業生」，Niel毫不猶豫地認為前者更有可能成功。「看看Elon Musk，那傢伙完全是個瘋子，但看看他……」

這就是賺取億萬的第一課：要有點瘋狂，不墨守成規，最重要的是敢於創業。除非你有富裕的父母，否則這是唯一的方法。Niel認為，要成功創業，關鍵在於信任他人，善於組建團隊。還要接受失敗，因為「創業公司有99%的可能性會沉沒」。他建議把生意當作「遊戲」，在失敗後迅速轉向下一個目標，就像在玩大富翁時被清空資產一樣。

「想成為億萬富翁，去坐牢吧」，Xavier Niel略帶挑釁地說。他自己就有「這樣的幸運」。2004年，因涉嫌與旗下的Minitel Pink業務有關的加重賣淫罪，他在牢中度過了一個月，後來被釋放。就是在法官Renaud Van Ruymbeke的辦公室裡，他得到了「啟示」。他給了我一個建議：「觸碰黃線，但永遠不要越過它。」

遊走於法律邊緣而不觸犯法律，這也是成功的另一個關鍵。「Uber玩弄了出租車的法規，Airbnb利用了旅館業的立法……這些公司挑戰了極限，從而創造了巨大創新。」這也讓人想起他早期的經歷，通過Minitel Pink和利用漏洞免費抓取法國電信的電話號碼製作反向電話簿，雖然因此遭到了判刑。

購買力的捍衛者

看到他自信地站在舞台上，很難想像他曾經是那個在書中形容的「孤獨、內向、在公眾場合不自在」的小Xavier。他如今滿懷自嘲，甚至讓網紅Léna Situations幫他換上路易威登的運動服，這也是向他妻子、LVMH集團負責人Arnault之女Delphine Arnault的致敬。他還嘲笑那些把他描繪成撒旦教徒的陰謀論——Free的用戶需要撥打666來訪問語音信箱。

即使已是億萬富翁，他依然努力維持「平易近人」的形象。他聲稱自己會親自回覆郵件，甚至在表演期間給觀眾送披薩，努力表現得「友好」和「正常」。年輕的Xavier Niel是個黑客和技術宅，喜歡探索巴黎的地下墓穴。而57歲的億萬富翁Xavier Niel仍然熱愛這些地下墓穴，甚至想帶Elon Musk去參觀。「這與現實生活有聯繫。」

這位商人還自詡為購買力的捍衛者，通過圖表展示他如何在Free進入電信運營商市場後打破壟斷並降低價格。「我們打破了一切：無論你是什麼運營商，你都受益於Free的到來。」他在觀眾的熱烈掌聲中自豪地說。「我們讓你們節省了數千歐元的購買力。」

他自信地表示，即使通脹飛漲，套餐的起價仍將保持在2歐元。我們幾乎感覺回到了Steve Jobs發布新產品時的時刻，創立Apple的喬布斯總是受到粉絲們的熱烈歡迎。Xavier Niel可能不會喜歡這個比較：「我們在Free真希望能發明iPhone，但我們會羞於賣得那麼貴。」他打趣道。

儘管觀眾被「叔叔Niel」的建議所吸引，但不得不承認，這些套路有些老套。Xavier Niel自己也承認：「不幸的是，你無法通過一小時的培訓成為億萬富翁。然而，這正是Tiktok和Instagram每天想讓你相信的。」Free的老闆批評了「那些賣夢的人，認為幸福必須擁有迪拜的遊艇」。這話對法國第9大富豪來說或許容易，但他強調，每個人都應該「找到自己的幸福方式」。而他的方式，就是做一名企業家。

Infoman

東方的威脅，西方的幼稚——地緣政治分析撰文：勞爾·曼德維爾《費加羅報》 2024年9月20日

面對正在精心建立反西方聯盟的專制政權的侵略性，西方卻難以找到能夠有效遏制他們的堅實防線。

我們正處於一個既危險又幼稚的時代。在東方和南方，具有侵略性的中國、俄羅斯、伊朗和北韓政權，正精心策劃反西方、反民主的聯盟。他們壓制自己的人民，試圖通過武力和混合戰手段在全球舞台上推行自己的法律，並破壞我們的民主體系。然而，我們很難在西方找到能夠有效遏制這些專制政權的防線。這是一邊的強硬對另一邊的瓦解。

首先，美國處於選舉周期中，這種選舉既激烈又混亂。政策和實質性辯論幾乎消失，取而代之的是人身攻擊和社交媒體上滿是貓的照片。這些照片有的由像泰勒·斯威夫特這樣的反川普女性發布，有的由共和黨競選團隊甚至埃隆·馬斯克本人發布，他們貼出戴著「讓寵物再次偉大」紅色帽子的貓的照片。這一切都標誌著政治辯論的最低點。華盛頓對於幫助烏克蘭的遲疑和對緩和局勢的過度關注，令人深感不安。川普的前退伍軍人事務部長羅伯特·威爾基在本報中發表的觀點是正確的：拜登政府在使用實力和創建威懾方面顯得力不從心。威爾基承諾他的支持者川普會做得更好，並強調不要被川普的強硬言辭所迷惑。但懸念依然存在，尚無跡象表明神秘的卡馬拉·哈里斯會有更好的表現。

黯淡的診斷

在大西洋彼岸，情況也並不更好。法國、德國和英國這三個大國正各自陷入深刻的政治危機，這耗費了所有的精力，使得很難對普京戰爭帶來的巨大挑戰做出明確回應。艾曼紐·馬克宏原本似乎準備好支持基輔，但現在卻不再提及此事。這也不難理解，因為他已經失去了足夠的政治能力來實現這一目標。結果就是，我們錯過了幫助烏克蘭的機會，儘管烏克蘭在庫爾斯克的突破提供了一個戰術機會。而最近兩天，歐盟與法國之間的緊張局勢加劇，無疑令情況更加複雜。英國雖然更加積極，但仍因剛剛經歷的多次重大騷亂而元氣大傷。而奧拉夫·肖爾茨領導的德國，對於在經濟以外的領域展示德國的實力一直非常猶豫，現在還不得不面對東部省份的挑戰，那些地區已經轉向支持極右翼政黨「另類選擇黨」（AfD），並且支持普京。

在這種令人沮喪的氛圍中，仍然有一線希望，展示了可能的反彈途徑：首先是「專制政權」隱藏的弱點，例如俄羅斯被經濟和道德危機所侵蝕。此外，烏克蘭人驚人的韌性也給人以希望，他們仍在用自己的鮮血捍衛歐洲的自由邊界。我們還看到喬治亞·梅洛尼在移民問題上取得了實質性進展，證明了這是可以實現的。同時，以色列的堅定立場正在改變中東的戰略格局。此外，馬里奧·德拉吉對歐洲未來的評估也值得關注，他提出的解決方案可以幫助歐洲避免被邊緣化。儘管他的診斷非常黯淡，但它開闢了一條可行的道路。

通過分享 PressReader

通過新聞連接世界

Infoman

「與其審視川普的言辭，歐洲人應該觀察他的行動」——L.M. 採訪

《費加羅報》 2024年9月20日

《費加羅報》：唐納·川普提倡「美國優先」。然而，面對俄羅斯、中國和伊朗聯盟所帶來的地緣政治威脅，這是否讓對美國國家利益的狹隘定義變得非常困難？

羅伯特·威爾基：我無法代表川普總統發言，但我可以談論在他第一任期內發生的事，我當時參與其中，也可以談論如果他再次當選將會發生什麼。世界正處於爆發的邊緣，西方面臨著自古巴導彈危機以來從未有過的危險局勢。但首先，「美國優先」並不意味著「美國孤立」。當川普總統上任時，我是國防部副部長，當時我們在歐洲的將領數量比連級指揮官還多！這反映了我們防禦能力的脆弱。川普政府向波蘭和捷克部署了數千名美軍作戰旅，表明我們的回歸。在川普的領導下，我們啟動了烏克蘭軍隊的重整，向其部署了精確制導炮彈。此外，普京也「被控制住了」。歐洲人似乎忘記了，自柏林牆倒塌以來，唯一一次美俄軍隊對峙是在敘利亞沙漠，當時在川普執政期間，俄羅斯軍隊挑釁美軍，而美軍反擊，擊毀了300名瓦格納集團的俄羅斯戰士。這一事件在克里姆林宮引發了震動，普京再也沒有採取行動。別忘了，隨後拜登政府終止了對烏克蘭的武器援助，並批准了川普反對的俄羅斯北溪二號天然氣管道。所以，雖然川普在敦促歐洲進行軍備重整時觸動了一些歐洲人的敏感神經，但早在1963年，甘迺迪總統的特使迪安·艾奇遜在與戴高樂將軍會面時就預言，最終會有一位美國總統對那些拒絕承擔北約防務責任的國家表現得強硬。事實上，英國陸軍、皇家海軍和皇家空軍的合併力量比美國海軍陸戰隊還要弱，只有12萬人！

《費加羅報》：然而，埃爾布里奇·科爾比及其他川普的戰略家們認為，美國人將不得不在稀缺的資源下行動。因此，他們的想法是：美國人應對中國，歐洲人應對俄羅斯？

威爾基：他們錯了，預算必須增加。如果我們想應對局勢，預算需要提高到6%。我們正面臨一個經濟實力遠超蘇聯的敵人——中國。俄羅斯沒有中國的支持無法堅持太久。總的來說，我們需要增強火力，回到有效的威懾政策。我將中東當前的許多問題歸咎於拜登政府對威懾力量的誤解。川普的外交政策之所以有效，是因為他大幅提高了美國的能源生產，達到了不僅可以供應歐洲，而且實現完全能源獨立的地步。當時原油價格從每桶100美元降至40美元，這使得伊朗和俄羅斯陷入經濟困境。但拜登政府終止了這種能源獨立，出於環保政策（編者註），俄羅斯得以將其石油賣到每桶100美元。同樣的情況也發生在伊朗，今天他們每天賣出超過100萬桶石油，比沙阿時期還多！他們的國庫因此大幅增加，並且華盛頓對他們的挑釁沒有做出任何反應。我不需要向法國人解釋，亞丁灣是全球第二繁忙的航道。由於美國對伊朗胡塞代理人的攻擊缺乏強烈反應，90%的海上交通因此停止。當中國外交部長在阿拉斯加的費爾班克會見我們的國防部長和國務卿時，他進行了長達30分鐘的演說，指責美國是種族壓迫者。安東尼·布林肯只是回答說我們國內還有很多工作要做。但如果當時是尼克松、雷根或川普坐在那裡，他們的回應會是：美國不接受來自一個自1949年以來殺害了一億名公民的國家的教訓。我認為民主黨難以駕馭實力。

《費加羅報》：在您看來，川普不是孤立主義者。您認為他不會猶豫使用軍事力量來威懾並重建力量平衡？

威爾基：你可以在我的書架上看到亨利·季辛吉的書，他寫了很多關於力量平衡的書。但我們只有在擁有軍事實力的情況下才能達到正確的平衡，並且對方必須相信我們有能力使用這些力量。當人們指責川普是孤立主義者時，他經常提到一個故事。有一次他與習近平在馬阿拉歌共進晚餐時，突然向習近平說：「習主席，我想告訴您，59枚戰斧導彈剛剛對敘利亞發射了。祝您有個美好的晚上。」習近平驚訝得瞪大了眼睛！川普還下令消滅了伊朗將軍蘇萊曼尼，消滅了敘利亞的瓦格納集團，並向東歐派遣了作戰部隊。歐洲外交的一個失敗——尤其是柏林的外交——就是只關注川普的競選風格和言辭，而不看他的行動！

《費加羅報》：川普關於「24小時內達成和平」的言論，是否讓人擔心他會出賣烏克蘭的利益？

威爾基：我認為川普的第一個行動將是給普京打電話。我認為他會告訴普京：「要么你停手，要么我們會向烏克蘭提供一切所需的裝備。」這將是談判的起點。我同意俄羅斯的野心很大，但我不相信俄羅斯有實力實現這些野心。根據英國的數據，8月俄羅斯已經損失了7萬名士兵！我們接近第一次世界大戰的傷亡數字了。當然，他們可以拖延時間，但他們已經沒有蘇聯那樣的能力。作為曾經的年輕軍官，我熟悉蘇聯的實力。我們需要給烏克蘭人提供所需的武器，也需要重新武裝自己。

《費加羅報》：副總統候選人JD·萬斯、眾議員馬特·蓋茨等人低估了俄烏衝突，並阻止了對烏克蘭的援助。

威爾基：除了JD·萬斯，我不認識其他一位美國參議員不同意你的觀點，或許喬希·霍利除外。這很重要，因為憲法賦予參議院對國會的外交政策有主要權限。參議院在支持烏克蘭方面是團結一致的。我們還有一位眾議院共和黨議長麥克·約翰遜，他支持對烏克蘭和以色列的870億美元軍事援助計劃。別忘了，拜登政府還要求烏克蘭不要在其邊境攻擊俄羅斯裝甲車。

《費加羅報》：如果川普重返白宮，他會批准使用美國武器攻擊俄羅斯領土嗎？

威爾基：我希望如此。美國參議院也希望如此。即便在眾議院共和黨核心小組內，馬特·蓋茨也不是主流。眾議院議長

Infoman

How TikTok helped spark a huge baked potato revival

Al-Othman Dan Milmo

The Guardian 14 Sep 2024

By 10.30am, a queue is already forming outside a closed baked potato van in a converted tram in Preston, Lancashire. Waiting in line are customers from Liverpool, Glasgow and Orlando, Florida.

The first customer of the day gets their lunch free and people have camped outside from as early as 4.30am in the past. Ask almost anyone in the queue why they’re here and they will give you the same answer – they have seen the Spud Bros on TikTok.

The Spud Bros are real-life brothers Jacob and Harley Nelson. By broadcasting life from their pitches on social media, they are bringing in new customers from as far away as Australia and South Africa, and they have more than 26 million followers on TikTok. Over the past year their posts have been viewed 1.5bn times on TikTok and views are running at 10m a day.

They have even introduced global celebrities to the baked spud – the Jonas Brothers are now fans.

“Everyone loves a jacket potato,” Harley, 22, said. “It’s good comfort food,” Jacob, 29, added. “You can’t beat it, nice in winter, just filling. And it’s cheap: five pound for a cheese and bean.”

Part of their success is down to the jacket potato’s enduring appeal, the brothers said, but as much as their food, it is their social media videos that draw people in. “Yesterday, we had 5,000 people watching us livestreaming what we’re doing,” he added.

The TikTok account was started by their dad, Tony Nelson, 58, who took over the pitch after his friend, Keith Roberts, whose family had had the stand since 1955, died. Roberts had given Jacob his first Saturday job at the age of 14, selling potatoes. When Tony took over the stall four years ago, he brought Harley onboard to run it with him. They would see students from the nearby college bypass the potato tram as they went to buy lunch from fast food chains nearby.

“It was breaking my heart seeing all these people walk past,” Tony said. “So we went out and spoke to them, and said: ‘What would it take for you to come and get a spud’?”

“They just said spuds aren’t sexy,” he added, “but one of the things they did say was about going on the social media.”

Later Jacob quit his job and joined the family business, and he and Harley started to work on the TikTok account that Tony had started, “and it’s just gone absolutely berserk since,” Tony said. In the tram is a scratch map showing where their customers have come from; Kenya, Japan, and California are all scratched off.

“We had one girl,” Jacob said, “and she was doing a Europe tour, and she was from America, and she specifically planned to come to the UK, just because she saw our TikTok videos. She said she wouldn’t have come to the UK for anything else. So we did a video with her. We gave her Heinz beans, Vimto, the northern nectar … She really loved it.”

It is not just the Spud Bros who are bringing British baked potatoes to global audiences. In Tamworth, Staffordshire, Ben Newman, known as Spudman, has 3.7 million followers on TikTok.

He has had his stall for more than two decades, but after trade slowed significantly during the Covid pandemic, he turned to TikTok to build his business back up again.

He said when he first took over the pitch he “didn’t really do social media”. “Back in those days passing trade in the town was enough to sustain it,” he said. “Now everyone walks around with [their] head in the phone. So that’s where you’ve got to advertise to them.”

Shared via PressReader

connecting people through news

Infoman

Hot tips Reasons to be cheerful

Guardian 14 Sep 2024

1 Nensi Dojaka x Calvin Klein

Dojaka’s eyecatching lingeriestyled barely dresses have been worn by Zendaya and Rihanna, and this show features a collaboration with Calvin Klein. A hot ticket.

2 Preppy gets British

Kent & Curwen started out making Eton school ties and kit for Oxbridge sports teams. With preppy style tipped as the new streetwear, their show will attempt to position them as London’s answer to Polo Ralph Lauren.

3 The YBAs are back

First Oasis, now the Young British Artists. Artist Gary Hume has created the set for Burberry – badly in need of a hit after disappointing financial results – for Monday’s show at the National Theatre.

4 Edeline Lee

Edeline Lee’s elegant, wearable clothes have long been a favourite of successful, low-key-fashionable women – like Victoria Starmer, who has worn the Dada dress.

5 The return of Christopher Kane

Self-Portrait is expanding into a party-dress empire with a collection by Kane. Catnip to fashion fans.

Shared via PressReader

connecting people through news

Infoman

Good times, bad times UK fashion bounces back after bad year

Jess Cartner-Morley

The Guardian 14 Sep 2024

The question at London fashion week is: do you want the good news or the bad news first? The outlook for British fashion depends where you look. At SS Daley’s show in a lightflooded Royal Academy gallery, the picture looked rosy. Harry Styles, who became Steven Stokey-Daley’s financial backer when he took a minority stake in the brand earlier this year, formed a front row power couple next to Anna Wintour, who teamed her signature shades with a stars-and-stripes Harris-Walz campaign scarf.

The show was a hit, the audience charmed by dalmatian-printed silk separates and romantically oversized Brideshead Oxford bags. The actor Emma Corrin, watching from the front row, was already wearing one of the dresses.

The appointment of Sarah Burton to the distinguished Paris house of Givenchy, proof that British talent still leads the fashion world, is also cause for celebration – as is the return of Christopher Kane, whose label went into administration last year, back on the scene with a one-off collection for the British brand Self-Portrait.

A reception at No 10 on Monday promises a chance for a warmer relationship than the froideur that existed between the previous government and an industry still fuming about Brexit.

But others see a far gloomier forecast. The recent collapse of the Matches online retailer left many independent brands out of pocket, and the wider e-commerce landscape remains shaky. Molly Goddard is among the high-profile absences from this week’s catwalk as designers lick their wounds and prepare to regroup. With headlines screaming about Broke Britain, prospects for support look decidedly slim.

Self-Portrait is one of London fashion’s most substantial recent success stories. Its founder, Han Chong, has found a commercial sweet spot with his dresses, which look and feel designer, but at around £350 are a fraction of bigname luxury prices.

Chong was a student at Central St Martins when Kane’s eye-popping neon-and-lace debut anointed him as London’s golden boy. “I remember feeling like his clothes marked the arrival of something truly modern,” Chong recalls.

Harris Reed, fresh from dressing Jenna Ortega in upcycled paper at the Venice film festival, turned Tate Modern into his catwalk. A lace collar was the size of a bicycle wheel, ribbon-tied cuffs trailed to the floor, a sheer net ballgown revealed platform boots. “The more theatrical I get, the bigger the appetite,” Reed explained.

Rejina Pyo also knows how to make a splash with shows – a 2021 spectacle at the London Aquatic Centre featured Team GB divers wearing her swimsuits – but stepped back from the catwalk two years ago. A collaboration with the British luxury brand Mulberry was enough to maintain her profile this season, with the distinctive cargostyled shoulder bags spotted on several front rows.

Having relocated to Somerset and restructured her business, Alice Temperley is in London not to stage a show but preparing to open a new boutique. Robust demand for bespoke wedding dresses have sustained her through lean times. “We are still feeling the impact of Covid and Brexit. Those feel like such boring words to say now, but they are still very real issues.”

Temperley now plans to build out her daywear and is introducing a digital “passport” to facilitate moving toward buying back clothes from customers, and offering an in-house pre-loved collection.

The designer Maria Grachvogel was an early adopter of “slow fashion”, pivoting from the catwalk a decade ago in favour of small collections. “Fashion seemed to be speeding up. I felt a distinct urge to slow down. And I knew that women were wearing my pieces for years, not seasons. I do miss catwalk shows for the way they show clothes on the body,” she says.

Shared via PressReader

connecting people through news

Infoman

隨著深度學習技術的發展，AI人工智能的雙刃效應日益明顯。近日，一名來自美國北卡羅萊納州的52歲音樂人通過操控AI生成數十萬首歌曲，同時註冊1000個機器人賬號，每天在Amazon Music、Apple Music、Spotify及YouTube Music等音樂串流平台上大規模播放，平均每天串流播放達66萬次，使其在7年間狠賺1,200萬美元（約9,360萬港元）。目前，他被指控共謀電信詐騙罪等三項罪名，如罪成恐面臨20年牢獄之災。

綜合外媒報道，52歲的Michael Smith自2017年開始縝密籌劃這項詐騙計劃。由於他本身就是音樂人，所以了解音樂串流平台發放給音樂家或創作者的版稅制度。同時，他也深知，若特定的一、兩首歌曲播放量過於集中（超過10億次以上），想通過AI機器人大量播放來賺取版稅，則將很容易被串流平台的監測系統識別。

因此，他另闢蹊徑，於2018年開始與一家AI音樂公司合作，幫助他生成了數十萬首AI歌曲。每一首AI歌曲都被制定虛假的藝術家名稱和曲目名稱，並被分布在數千個虛擬的音樂賬號上。為避免被識別，這些AI歌曲均通過機器學習技術進行了細微調整，聼感上更加自然。

同時，為實現大規模播放，Michael Smith還建立了一個由1000多個機器人賬號組成的網絡，分布在全球52個雲服務器上，並通過VPN相互連接。1000多個機器人賬號將每天不間斷地播放他的AI歌曲，且每首歌曲的播放量都被控制在一個相對較低的水平。

根據美國紐約地方法院公開的文件顯示，Michael Smith的機器人網絡每天的串流播放次數平均超過66萬次。每播放一次，他就能獲得半美分的收入，意味著他每日可收穫的版稅約為3,307美元（約2.5萬港元），一個月下來收入超過9.9萬美元（約77萬港元），年度版稅費高達120萬美元（約936萬港元）。

截至目前，Michael Smith的AI歌曲累積超過40億次播放量，收穫的版稅達到1,200萬美元（約9,360萬港元）。儘管他堅稱自己的音樂都是原創，也否認以人為方式增加流量，但仍被指控共謀電信欺詐罪、電信欺詐罪和共謀洗錢罪等三項起訴。如罪名成立，恐將面臨最高20年監禁。

Infoman

ASIAN MEN GET TO BE THE HUNKS

New York Times (International Edition) 10/9/2024

It was not long ago that the actor and writer Joel Kim Booster began going to auditions only to quickly realize that the roles available to him as an Asian American man were severely limited.

“It does not get better from here, no matter how many Chinese-food delivery boys you play,” he recalled being told by other Asian American actors.

But Booster kept at it. And eventually, in 2022, he got to portray a gay Asian American man in “Fire Island,” a groundbreaking rom-com that he also wrote. “So much of that movie,” Booster said, “is just a literal transcript from my life.”

As it turned out, things did get a little better for Asian American men in Hollywood during the decade that Booster spent toiling. And he senses that the momentum has continued in the two years since “Fire Island” debuted.

Many of the newest Asian and Asian American stories seem unconcerned with “the white gaze,” he said. And so “the conversation has sort of moved on for a lot of people,” he said, adding that his movie “almost feels a little retrograde now.”

Indeed, since the 2018 blockbuster “Crazy Rich Asians” became a box-office hit, Asian and Asian American stories and characters have proliferated in American pop culture. And after decades of degrading, often emasculating portrayals, Asian and Asian American men like Booster have been at the center of the new work, often playing the sort of hunky hero parts that Hollywood long kept out of reach.

The year “Crazy Rich Asians” premiered, HBO’s “Insecure” introduced Alexander Hodge as the romantic interest known as “Asian Bae.” The next year Randall Park co-starred with Ali Wong in “Always Be My Maybe,” which Park and Wong co-wrote with Michael Golamco. And in 2021, Jimmy O. Yang starred in a Christmas rom-com, “Love Hard.”

Asian American men like Booster and Park have seized the moment to work behind the scenes, too. Park directed “Shortcomings,” a 2023 film that stars Justin H. Min as an angsty, flawed Asian American protagonist. And Sean Wang’s coming-of-age film, “Dìdi,” premiered this summer, offering a look at what it was like to grow up Asian American in the early days of social media amid California skateboard culture.

Waves of representation can be cyclical, and those who study film and TV are quick to point out that representation is still lacking and that many of the characters who do manage to make it onscreen are often still marginalized in frustrating ways.

But as the number of Asian Americans has risen across the United States and audiences have shown an appetite for their stories, many actors, writers and directors say it is clear that roles for Asian American men have evolved, and the smattering of new, more nuanced parts is helping to propel a shift in how Asian American men are perceived.

“All of us want to push that narrative of Asian males being more desirable,” said Manny Jacinto, who got his break playing a hot but dumb himbo on NBC’s “The Good Place” and is gearing up to star as Lindsay Lohan’s husband in a “Freaky Friday” sequel after a stint in “The Acolyte” as a Star Wars Sith Lord.

“And the thing is,” he continued, “those opportunities aren’t really being given to us. So it’s very much up to us to create them.”

A RACIST HISTORY

Many 20th-century depictions of Asian American men in American cinema were stereotypical at best: the Chinese supervillain Fu Manchu; Long Duk Dong, a socially maladjusted foreign exchange student in “Sixteen Candles” who enters scenes to the sound of a gong; and bucktoothed Mr. Yunioshi in “Breakfast at Tiffany’s,” played by Mickey Rooney with a wildly over-the-top accent.

Even the virtuous early Asian and Asian American heroes — the Bruce Lees, Jackie Chans and Pat Moritas of the film world — were lauded for their martial arts but largely seen as asexual.

(Asian women in Hollywood have frequently encountered the opposite problem: hyper sexualization, fetishization and objectification. One celebrated pioneer, Anna May Wong, began her ascent to global fame as early as the 1920s, breaking out in “The Thief of Bagdad” and starring in films like “Shanghai Express.”)

South Asian men, meantime, were often slotted as terrorists, taxi drivers or caricatures of effeminate mama’s boys: “Either the most dangerous or the least dangerous thing,” the actor Kumail Nanjiani said. “Nothing in between.”

Over the years, this lack of meaningful representation took a toll on many Asian American men.

“‘I’m not into Asian guys’ — I heard that a ton of times when I was single,” Park said. “What can you say to that? It’s like, ‘OK, that’s your preference.’ But if you really dwell on it, there are a lot of things that go into that worldview. And I do think the images we see play into it.”

That is part of the reason some actors, writers and directors have pushed to show audiences different sides of themselves — and to present different ideas about what an Asian American man can be.

Nanjiani, for instance, became a superhero. He was featured in the 2021 Marvel blockbuster “Eternals” at the same time that Simu Liu was starring in “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.” (Though, notably, neither of their characters has a love interest.)

Nanjiani said he “didn’t want the first brown superhero to also be the first nerdy superhero.”

“I wanted to look like someone who could take on Thor and Captain America,” added Nanjiani, who reshaped his body, adding significant muscle for the part. “I wanted this guy to be like a playboy, you know? I kind of wanted him to be like a brown Iron Man or Batman.”

NO ‘GRAND STATEMENTS’

Many of the Asian American actors cast in leading romantic roles in recent years emphasized that they did not seek them specifically to counter dated tropes. Instead, they said, it is worth studying smaller, more subtle creative choices in the films and series they have been a part of because it is there that the shifts in representation may be most visible.

Park winds up with Wong in “Always Be My Maybe” even though he plays the average-Joe best friend and is competing for Wong’s affection with Daniel Dae Kim, in the role of the rich heartthrob, and Keanu Reeves, playing a parody version of himself.

“The goal was to tell a great love story, not to think too hard about countering any specific stereotype or making any kind of grand statement about Asian American identity,” Park said.

Min recently starred as a romantic lead in “The Greatest Hits” opposite Lucy Boynton and said his character was not specifically written as Asian. Once it was decided the character would be Korean American, “it didn’t require a scene where, like, he’s suddenly eating kimchi jjigae with his parents,” Min said.

And in the Christmas rom-com “Love Hard,” Yang’s character, Josh Lin, gets his happy ending after initially trying to catfish his love interest.

Lin, Yang said, is “a really good man who ends up getting the girl. And I think that’s very romantic.”

IMPERFECTIONS ON DISPLAY

Some of what Asian actors and writers have sought to portray about themselves and their romantic lives when given the chance is complicated — and intentionally unflattering.

Booster said he was confident and sexually active until he graduated college and downloaded Grindr, where he quickly discovered that as an Asian man, he was unwanted.

“It taught me to hate myself in a way I never even realized I was supposed to before,” he said of the racism he encountered. “I had no idea I was undesirable until I moved to a major city and was exposed to a gay community like that.”

He baked that experience and others into “Fire Island,” which he then starred in alongside Bowen Yang, a “Saturday Night Live” favorite.

Wang’s new film, “Dìdi,” similarly works to reflect aspects of his own life growing up in the San Francisco Bay Area in the 2000s.

The protagonist, Chris, is told he’s “pretty cute for an Asian” by his crush. A squirrel is shown telling Chris that no one loves him.

And after he is labeled “Asian Chris” by new skateboarding friends he is trying to impress, he insists to those friends that he is actually half Asian, which they later discover is a lie.

“Girls would say to me, ‘Oh, you’re the cutest Asian I know,’” Wang said. “When I was 13, I really wore that as a badge of honor. They meant it as a compliment. No one was trying to be subtly racist.”

“But when you’re 13,” he added, “you just internalize all of that.”

UNEVEN PROGRESS

Actors and scholars agree that it will take a lot more than a few years of improved Asian American storytelling to erase a century of poor portrayals. Some acknowledged that progress is usually followed by regression.

Although “Everything Everywhere All at Once” won the best picture Oscar in 2023, a year that also introduced shows like “Beef” and movies like “Joy Ride,” 2024 has offered relatively little beyond “Dìdi,” which debuted in late July.

Gedde Watanabe has seen a lot of these sort of stops and starts in the 40 years since he played Long Duk Dong in “Sixteen Candles.” He knows that movies wield power, and he wonders what would have happened if he had more power on set back in the 1980s. How might he have addressed the gong, the accent and the use of the word “Chinaman”?

But for all of his character’s flaws, Watanabe insists that Long Duk Dong did reflect some important aspects of reality.

“He wanted a girlfriend, he wanted to fit in,” Watanabe said.

“Those are things that, universally, I can understand.”

通過分享 PressReader

通過新聞連接世界

Infoman

Facial recognitionThe Economist (UK) 07/9/2024

BRITONS SPEND large chunks of their lives on camera. The country has up to 6m closed-circuit television ( CCTV) cameras—one for every 11 people in the country, the third-highest penetration rate in the world after America and China. To help identify rioters in the wake of violent protests that swept parts of the country in early August, police officers are collecting footage from mosques and shops that were vandalised. Some are releasing CCTV footage to the public to identify suspects. Others are using another technology to get the job done—facial recognition.

Facial-recognition systems use artificial intelligence ( AI) to match images to identities. Retrospective facial recognition of the sort being used to pursue rioters compares CCTV footage with suspects; real-time use involves live images being compared with the faces of people who have been placed on “watch lists”. The technology was used during King Charles’s coronation in 2023. Last year the South Wales Police scanned the faces of more than 819,000 people. In Haringey in north London, around 133 facial scans are performed every minute.

Surveys suggest that Britons accept the arguments for facial recognition. A poll taken in March by the Centre for Emerging Technology and Security and the Alan Turing Institute found that 60% of Britons are comfortable with the police’s use of the technology in real time to identify criminals in a crowd. That share is likely to have risen as a result of the riots. Scouring images to find troublemakers takes a lot longer if only humans are involved. The South Wales police force identifies 200 suspects every month using the technology; without facial recognition it takes 14 days on average to find a suspect. Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, has pledged to increase use of the technology in response to the disorder this summer.

That adds urgency to questions about how it is regulated. The Investigatory Powers Act, which regulates some forms of surveillance, was recently amended to allow government agencies to use AI to process data sets when there is “no expectation of privacy”. But Karen Yeung, a professor of law at Birmingham University, points out that there is no legislation specifically covering facial recognition. “Police forces are guided by a complex patchwork of regulation, which in effect means there is little oversight on the use of the technology.”

There is, for example, no clear criterion determining when facial recognition can be deployed; instead decisions are left to the discretion of each police force. The College of Policing, a professional body, offers guidance on who can be placed on watch lists before deploying live facial recognition, but the categories can be very broad. The Justice and Home Affairs Committee called in January for watch lists to be subject to uniform standards across police forces. Other jurisdictions have much more stringent rules. Under the EU’s AI Act, for example, the use of real-time facial recognition is allowed only when it is approved by a judge.

There is no central register of AI technologies in Britain, either. Public bodies and all 43 police forces in England and Wales are free to employ any AI tools they like, making it impossible to know where and how they are being used. Critics argue that this lack of transparency could lead, among other things, to discrimination— some systems are better at recognising white faces, which may mean more false identifications of non-white individuals.

Use of the technology will almost certainly spread further. Sir Mark Rowley, the Met’s commissioner, believes that facial recognition will transform policing “in the way that DNA transformed investigative work 30 years ago”. But Fraser Sampson, the last surveillance-camera commissioner (the post has now been abolished and some of its responsibilities shared out among various government departments), argues that the lack of regulation could lead to a backlash against the technology. The survey in March also found that only 19% of Britons trust police forces to use biometric tools “responsibly”. A clearer regulatory framework would probably help build confidence. ■

通過分享 PressReader

通過新聞連接世界

Infoman

Grenfell TowerThe Economist (UK) 07/9/2024

THE WORST thing that can be said of a public inquiry is that it is a whitewash. Perhaps it is too narrow, too rushed or too gentle. None of which can fairly be said of Sir Martin Moore-Bick’s final report into the fire that tore through Grenfell Tower in London in 2017, killing 72 people. The report was released on September 4th, seven years after the fire. It is almost 1,700 pages long (a preliminary report, released in 2019, was 850 pages long) and casts blame in every direction.

Grenfell burned rapidly because of its exterior cladding, which was added during renovations in the mid-2010s. Sir Martin, a retired judge, concludes that some of the cladding manufacturers engaged in “systematic dishonesty”. The report finds that one firm, Arconic, possessed test data showing that a type of panel could react dangerously to fire, yet continued to tell the market that it was classified as safe. An insulation firm, Celotex, “embarked on a dishonest scheme to mislead its customers”, submitting materials for testing that contained additional fire-resistant boards. Fire had spread through cladding on other buildings before 2017. After one tower in London caught fire in 2009, killing six people, some of its panels were tested. They burned so fiercely, while dripping flaming debris, that the testing outfit feared for its equipment. Yet regulations stayed lax. Architects and contractors assumed it was someone else’s responsibility to ensure that panels were safe.

In the background, while fateful decisions were being made to clad Grenfell Tower in dangerous materials, were Conservative-led governments. The report suggests they made matters worse. Cuts to local-authority budgets left the inspector responsible for Grenfell Tower overseeing up to 130 projects. A national deregulation drive made civil servants loth to propose new safety measures. Sir Martin points to “a serious failure of leadership” in the housing department.

As for the London Fire Brigade, it was complacent and poorly led. It failed to plan for a large fire in a tower block or to prepare for the many phone calls that would result. In 2017 the control room was overwhelmed. Some call handlers told people that the fire was far away when it was not. One resident, who said the smoke was so thick that “you could not see a hand in front of ya”, was not told to leave.

Among other recommendations, Sir Martin says that Britain should create an independent construction regulator, reporting to a single department. A professional body should be created for fire engineers; at present, the title means little. A College of Fire and Rescue should be built—something the government has said it wants. Firefighters ought to use high-powered radios more often, to avoid the cutouts that occurred during the Grenfell Tower blaze.

Some survivors of the fire have welcomed the report and look forward to prosecutions. But it has been a long time in coming partly because it blames so many people. The inquiry’s solicitors informed 247 people and organisations of the criticisms that would be made of them and then dealt with their responses—a process that “took much longer than had been expected”. That may have reduced the report’s potency.

In the past seven years the architecture firm that worked on the refurbishment of Grenfell Tower has closed; people have changed jobs; politicians have come and gone. It is easier for everyone to say that faults have already been fixed. This is a known drawback of slow inquiries. Soon after the Grenfell fire, the Institute for Government, a think-tank, argued that the “window of opportunity for change” tends to close as systems and institutions move on after a disaster. And Sir Martin’s report is too hefty to be widely read.

British public inquiries were not always so exhaustive. In May 1968 one corner of Ronan Point, a new tower block in London, collapsed. An inquiry began the following day and concluded six months later. The report was just 82 pages long. It avoided casting blame, arguing it was more important “that the eyes of all may be opened in the future”. The investigation led to stricter building codes in Britain and other countries and ended the era of rapidly built, prefabricated towers.

Still, the country now seems committed to slow, excoriating public inquiries. The office building in west London where the Grenfell Tower hearings took place is busy again, with a wide-ranging investigation into how Britain dealt with the covid-19 pandemic. That might take even longer. ■

通過分享 PressReader

通過新聞連接世界

Infoman

Uk Teacher shortages

Economist (UK) 07/9/2024

ACROSS BRITAIN around 10m schoolaged children are returning to classrooms following the summer break. They may have no choice, but the people who teach them do. Many of them are turning away from the profession.

In state-funded secondary schools, where the problem of teacher shortages is most acute, the pupil-teacher ratio has increased over the past 14 years from 14.8 to 16.8. The number of teaching assistants in classrooms has also declined since 2010. The problem appears to be worsening. A census of teachers in England last year (education is a devolved matter) found that vacant positions have gone from an average of 1,150 in the four years before the covid-19 pandemic to 2,800 in 2023.

Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, listed teacher recruitment as one of his six “first steps for change” in the Labour Party’s election manifesto. The government promises to recruit 6,500 secondary-school teachers in England, “paid for” by putting VAT on private-school fees. That would increase teacher headcount by 3% and push the pupil-teacher ratio down to a six-year low. But hiring more teachers is one thing; keeping them, another.

Over the past two years some 36,200 working-age secondary-school teachers quit the profession, the highest rate since records began in 2010. One in ten newly qualified teachers ( NQTs) quit within 12 months of starting to teach and one-third leave within five years. Some 36% of stateschool teachers were contemplating leaving in 2023—up from 25% the previous year. They cited workload, stress and low pay as their principal motivations.

NQTs’ salaries were raised to £30,000 ($39,400) last year, and will increase by 5.5% this month. But teachers will still be paid less in real terms than in 2010 (see chart) and less than many of their peers in other rich countries. On average teachers work six hours longer each week than other graduates during term time, although holiday and pension benefits are more generous. Teachers have had to tackle a deterioration in pupils’ behaviour after covid-19 lockdowns: suspensions have doubled compared with the pre-pandemic average. And flexible working, one of the principal benefits of the pandemic, has passed teachers by: schooling children remains an in-person job.

Money can overcome some issues. Indemand teachers in deprived areas can receive extra payments of £6,000 in their first years of teaching; policymakers want these to be more widespread. Bursaries can help recruit teachers in subjects with particular shortages. Student teachers in maths, computing and the sciences have received a tax-free upfront payment, now worth £28,000, during training. (Though, as Beng Huat See, a professor of education at the University of Birmingham, notes, in recent years about half of domestic maths graduates would have had to go into teaching to fill the government’s principal training quota for the subject.)

But public finances are stretched, and bursaries do not tackle the problem of retention. So the government is also thinking about other ways to make teaching more attractive. Bridget Phillipson, the new secretary of state for education, told Parliament in July that teachers will now be able to do lesson preparation and planning at home. In August her department announced that it is creating a “content bank” of teaching resources that technology companies can use to train their AI models. In time teachers will be able to use these nationally approved AI models for lesson preparation. The school-inspection regime is also being revisited to make it less pressurised. Following the suicide in 2023 of a headmistress whose school had been judged “inadequate”, the government on September 2nd scrapped the system whereby inspectors summarise schools’ overall performance in a single word.

Demography may have the biggest effect. A “bulge” of children working its way through the system is expected to see secondary-school pupil numbers peak in 2027 and then decline steadily. That will reduce classroom sizes and make teaching, on the margins, a bit easier. But a shortage of children will bring with it an entirely different set of problems. ■

通過分享 PressReader

通過新聞連接世界

Infoman

Posts by Infoman

Entrepreneur - Embrace boldness to fail, Diversity, team building, playing in law, bargain price, lifelong career