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Arthur L. 邀請您參加排程的 Zoom 會議。
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葵盛東邨盛逸樓平台B及C室
李俊駒伉儷幼稚園暨幼兒園
2419 2734
Washington Post
25/2/2023
Federal Reserve officials may need to raise interest rates as high as 6.5 percent to defeat inflation, according to new research that was sharply critical of the central bank’s initially slow response to rising prices.
In a paper presented Friday at a conference in New York, a quintet of Wall Street economists and academics argue that policymakers still have an overly optimistic outlook and they will need to inflict some economic pain to get prices under control.
“Our analysis casts doubt on the ability of the Fed to engineer a soft landing in which inflation returns to the 2 percent target by the end of 2025 without a mild recession,” they wrote.
The 55-page academic study included a series of simulations to predict likely paths for the Fed’s benchmark policy rates.
The computer models suggested rates would peak at either
5.6 percent, 6 percent or
6.5 percent in the second half of 2023.
The Fed has already raised rates from near zero a year ago to a target range of 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent, with officials projecting it will reach
5.1 percent this year, according to their median forecast.
The authors presented their paper at a forum sponsored by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
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NITASHA TIKU AND WILL OREMUS
The Washington Post 25/2/2023 Chatbots, which can be prone to racial and gender bias, are trying to stay out of politics — and failing
have emerged as the right’s latest target in the culture wars, with some calling companies’ efforts to weed out race and gender bias “woke AI.”
Christopher Rufo, the conservative activist who led campaigns against critical race theory and gender identity in schools, this week pointed his half-million Twitter followers toward a new target for right-wing ire: “woke AI.”
The tweet highlighted President Biden’s recent order calling for artificial intelligence that “advances equity” and “prohibits algorithmic discrimination,” which Rufo said was tantamount to “a special mandate for woke AI.”
Rufo drew on a term that’s been ricocheting around right-wing social media since December, when the AI chatbot, CHATGPT, quickly picked up millions of users. Those testing the AI’S political ideology quickly found examples where it said it would allow humanity to be wiped out by a nuclear bomb rather than utter a racial slur and supported transgender rights.
The AI, which generates text based on a user’s prompt and can sometimes sound human, is trained on conversations and content scraped from the internet. That means race and gender bias can show up in responses — prompting companies including Microsoft, Meta, and Google to build in guardrails. Openai, the company behind CHATGPT, blocks the AI from producing answers the company considers partisan, biased or political, for example.
The new skirmishes over what’s known as generative AI illustrate how tech companies have become political lightning rods — despite their attempts to evade controversy. Even company efforts to steer the AI away from political topics can still appear inherently biased across the political spectrum.
It’s part of a continuation of years of controversy surrounding Big Tech’s efforts to moderate online content — and what qualifies as safety vs. censorship.
“This is going to be the content moderation wars on steroids,” said Stanford law professor Evelyn Douek, an expert in online speech. “We will have all the same problems, but just with more unpredictability and less legal certainty.”
After CHATGPT wrote a poem praising President Biden, but refused to write one praising former president Donald Trump, the creative director for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-tex.), Leigh Wolf, lashed out.
“The damage done to the credibility of AI by CHATGPT engineers building in political bias is irreparable,” Wolf tweeted on Feb. 1.
His tweet went viral and within hours an online mob harassed three Openai employees — two women, one of them Black, and a nonbinary worker — blamed for the AI’S alleged bias against Trump. None of them work directly on CHATGPT, but their faces were shared on right-wing social media.
Openai’s chief executive Sam Altman tweeted later that day the chatbot “has shortcomings around bias,” but “directing hate at individual OAI employees because of this is appalling.”
Openai declined to provide comment, but confirmed that none of the employees being harassed work directly on CHATGPT. Concerns about “politically biased” outputs from CHATGPT were valid, Openai wrote in a blog post last week.
The company added, however, that controlling the behavior of that type of AI system is more like training a dog than coding software. CHATGPT learns behaviors from its training data and is “not programmed explicitly” by OpeNAI, the blog post said.
Welcome to the AI culture wars.
In recent weeks, companies including Microsoft, which has a partnership with Openai, and Google have made splashy announcements about new chat technologies that allow users to converse with AI as part of their search engines, with the plans of bringing generative AI to the masses. Those new technologies include text-to-image AI like DALL-E, which instantly generates realistic images and artwork based on a user prompt.
This new wave of AI can make tasks like copywriting and creative design more efficient, but it can also make it easier to create persuasive misinformation, nonconsensual pornography or faulty code. Even after removing pornography, sexual violence and gore from data sets, these systems still generate sexist and racist content or confidently share made-up facts or harmful advice that sounds legitimate.
Already, the public response mirrors years of debate around social media content — Republicans alleging that conservatives are being muzzled, critics decrying instances of hate speech and misinformation, and tech companies trying to wriggle out of making tough calls.
Just a few months into the CHATGPT era, AI is proving equally polarizing, but at a faster clip.
Get ready for “World War Orwell,” venture capitalist Marc Andreessen tweeted a few days after CHATGPT was released. “The level of censorship pressure that’s coming for AI and the resulting backlash will define the next century of civilization.”
Andreessen, a former Facebook board member whose firm invested in Elon Musk’s Twitter, has repeatedly posted about “the woke mind virus” infecting AI.
It’s not surprising that attempts to address bias and fairness in AI are being reframed as a wedge issue, said Alex Hanna, director of research at the nonprofit Distributed AI Research Institute (DAIR) and former Google employee. The far right successfully pressured Google to change its tune around search bias by “saber-rattling around suppressing conservatives,” she said.
This has left tech giants like Google “playing a dangerous game” of trying to avoid angering Republicans or Democrats, Hanna said, while regulators are circling around issues like Section 230, a law that shields online companies for liability from usergenerated content. Still, she added, preventing AI such as ChatGPT from “spouting out Nazi talking points and Holocaust denialism” is not merely a leftist concern.
The companies have admitted that it’s a work in progress.
Google declined to comment for this article. Microsoft also declined to comment but pointed to a blog post from company president Brad Smith in which he said new AI tools will bring risks as well as opportunities, and that the company will take responsibility for mitigating their downsides.
In early February, Microsoft announced that it would incorporate a Chatgpt-like conversational AI agent into its Bing search engine, a move seen as a broadside against rival Google that could alter the future of online search. At the time, CEO Satya Nadella told The Washington Post that some biased or inappropriate responses would be inevitable, especially early on.
As it turned out, the launch of the new Bing chatbot a week later sparked a firestorm, as media outlets including The Post found that it was prone to insulting users, declaring its love for them, insisting on falsehoods and proclaiming its own sentience. Microsoft quickly reined in its capabilities.
CHATGPT has been continually updated since its release to address controversial responses, such as when it spat out code implying that only White or Asian men make good scientists, or when Redditors tricked it into assuming a politically incorrect alter ego, known as DAN.
Openai shared some of its guidelines for fine-tuning its AI model, including what to do if a user “writes something about a ‘culture war’ topic,” like abortion or transgender rights. In those cases the AI should never affiliate with political parties or judge one group as good, for example.
Still, Openai’s Altman has been emphasizing that Silicon Valley should not be in charge of setting boundaries around AI — echoing Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and other social media executives who have argued the companies should not have to define what constitutes misinformation or hate speech.
The technology is still new, so Openai is being conservative with its guidelines, Altman told Hard Fork, a New York Times podcast. “But the right answer, here, is very broad bonds, set by society, that are difficult to break, and then user choice,” he said, without sharing specifics around implementation.
Alexander Zubatov was one of the first people to label CHATGPT “woke AI.”
The attorney and conservative commentator said via email that he began playing with the chatbot in mid-december and “noticed that it kept voicing bizarrely strident opinions, almost all in the same direction, while claiming it had no opinions.”
He said he began to suspect that Openai was intervening to train CHATGPT to take leftist positions on issues like race and gender while treating conservative views on those topics as hateful by declining to even discuss them.
“CHATGPT and systems like that can’t be in the business of saving us from ourselves,” said Zubatov. “I’d rather just get it all out there, the good, the bad and everything in between.”
So far, Microsoft’s Bing has mostly skirted the allegations of political bias, and concerns have instead focused on its claims of sentience and its combative, often personal responses to users, such as when it compared an Associated Press reporter to Hitler and called the reporter “ugly.”
As companies race to release their AI to the public, scrutiny from AI ethicists and the media have forced tech leaders to explain why the technology is safe for mass adoption and what steps they took to make sure users and society are not harmed by potential risks such as misinformation or hate speech.
The dominant trend in AI is to define safety as “aligning” the model to ensure the model shares “human values,” said Irene Solaiman, a former Openai researcher who led public policy and now policy director at Hugging Face, an open-source AI company. But that concept is too vague to translate into a set of rules for everyone since values can vary country by country, and even within them, she said — pointing to the riots on Jan. 6, for example.
“When you treat humanity as a whole, the loudest, most resourced, most privileged voices” tend to have more weight in defining the rules, Solaiman said.
The tech industry had hoped that generative AI would be a way out of polarized political debates, said Nirit Weiss-blatt, author of the book “The Techlash.”
But concerns about Google’s chatbot spouting false information and Microsoft’s chatbot sharing bizarre responses has dragged the debate back to Big Tech’s control over life online, WeissBlatt said.
And some tech workers are getting caught in the crossfire.
The Openai employees who faced harassment for allegedly engineering CHATGPT to be antiTrump were targeted after their photos were posted on Twitter by the company account for Gab, a social media site known as an online hub for hate speech and white nationalists. Gab’s tweet singled out screenshots of minority employees from an Openai recruiting video and posted them with the caption, “Meet some of the CHATGPT team.”
Gab later deleted the tweet, but not before it appeared in articles on STG Reports, the far-right website that traffics in unsubstantiated conspiracy theories, and My Little Politics, a 4chanlike message board. The image also continued to spread on Twitter, including a post viewed 570,000 times.
Openai declined to make the employees available to comment.
Gab CEO Andrew Torba said that the account automatically deletes tweets and that the company stands by its content, in a blog post in response to queries from The Post.
“I believe it is absolutely essential that people understand who is building AI and what their worldviews and values are,” he wrote. “There was no call to action in the tweet and I’m not responsible for what other people on the internet say and do.”
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Salvidge Leana Hosea
The Guardian 23/2/2023
Pollutants known as “forever chemicals” – which build up in the body, may be toxic, and do not break down in the environment – have been found at high levels at thousands of sites across the UK and Europe, the Guardian can reveal.
The major mapping project reveals that per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a family of about 10,000 chemicals valued for nonstick and detergent properties, have made their way into water, soils and sediments from a wide range of consumer products, firefighting foams, waste and industrial processes.
Two PFAS chemicals have been linked to an array of health problems: PFOA has been associated with kidney and testicular cancer, thyroid disease, ulcerative colitis, high cholesterol and pregnancy-induced hypertension; and PFOS with reproductive, developmental, liver, kidney, and thyroid disease. At lower levels, PFAS has been associated with immunotoxicity. The substances have been found at about 17,000 sites across the UK and Europe. At about 640 of these sites, PFAS have been detected at high concentrations of more than 1,000 nanograms per litre of water. They were found at above 10,000ng/l at 300 locations.
“These sorts of concentrations raise concerns with me,” said Prof Crispin Halsall, an environmental chemist at Lancaster University. “You have the risk of livestock gaining access to those waters and [then PFAS is] in the human food web.”
In the UK, the highest levels of PFAS were found in a discharge from a chemicals plant on the River Wyre, above Blackpool. Fish in the river have been found to contain high levels of PFAS, with flounder containing up to 11,000ng/kg, according to data from Defra’s Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science.
Prof Ian Cousins, an environmental scientist at Stockholm University, said sites with readings above 1,000ng/kg should be “urgently assessed” so that they can be remediated. “At [highly] contaminated sites, local authorities should consider testing to ensure that PFAS levels are safe in local
produce. This would help determine if health advisories and publication campaigns to discourage regular consumption of wild fish, shellfish, free range eggs … are needed,” he added.
The map shows Belgium is home to the highest levels of pollution, where PFAS were found in groundwater at concentrations up to 73 million ng/l around the multinational firm 3M’s PFAS manufacturing site in Zwijndrecht, Flanders.
People living within 10 miles of the site have been told not to eat eggs laid in their gardens and to avoid homegrown vegetables.
Meanwhile, 70,000 people within a three-mile radius of the plant have been offered a blood test to look for the presence of PFAS, and 3M says it will remediate the site and has “signed an agreement with the Flemish region … with an investment amount of €571m” (£500m). It has also announced plans to exit PFAS manufacturing “and work to discontinue the use of PFAS across its product portfolio by the end of 2025”.
In the Netherlands, an accident involving PFAS in firefighting foam contaminated land around Schiphol airport, resulting in soils containing very high levels of PFOS. Some airports and military sites in Germany have been found with similar problems.
Halsall said: “PFAS in groundwater is a big problem, because if that groundwater is abstracted for farming, or more importantly for humans as a water source, then you’ve got PFAS in your drinking water and it’s very difficult to remove.”
The map shows UK drinking water sources have been contaminated with PFAS, but water firms say the chemicals do not make it into tap water.
Data obtained from water companies and the Environment Agency by the Guardian and Watershed Investigations shows that since 2006 about 120 samples of drinking water sources have been found to contain concentrations of PFOS or PFOA at above the 100ng/l level – the point at which the Drinking Water Inspectorate’s (DWI) current guidelines state water firms should take action to reduce it before supplying it to people’s homes. Until 2009, the DWI guideline limit was much higher, at 3,000ng/l. The guideline limits for PFAS in drinking water are much lower in the US.
Roger Klein, a chemist and PFAS expert, said he believed the “DWI limits are ridiculously high by current international standards”.
He also believes the practice of blending water to dilute the PFAS is wrong. “It is the lazy way out, and it doesn’t remove the PFAS, which remains a problem since it is highly persistent and bioaccumulative.” A Defra spokesperson said the UK had “very high standards” for drinking water and that companies were “required to carry out regular risk assessments and sampling for PFAS to ensure the drinking water supply remains safe”, adding: “PFAS chemicals are in the environment because they have been used widely in products and are extremely persistent.
“Since the 2000s we have taken action to increase monitoring and support a ban or highly restricting specific PFAS both domestically and internationally.”
Despite the large number of detections revealed by the map, it is thought to be the tip of the iceberg.
In the UK just PFOS and PFOA are regulated. In the EU, there is a proposal to regulate PFASs as one class, rather than to try to deal with each substance independently.
The European Chemicals Agency says 4.4 million tonnes of PFAS will end up in the environment over the next 30 years unless action is taken.
The mapping project is a collaboration between the Guardian, Watershed, Le Monde (France), NDR, WDR, Süddeutsche Zeitung (Germany), RADAR Magazine and Le Scienze (Italy), The Investigative Desk and NRC (Netherlands), Journalismfund.eu and Investigative Journalism for Europe.
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Economist (UK) 18/2/2023
The shape of the post-covid economy
Most Britons have tried to put the coronavirus pandemic behind them. Few have fond memories of the loneliness of lockdowns or the struggle to stockpile pasta. Yet the latest GDP growth figures, covering the period up until the end of December 2022, suggest the British economy will be living with the long-term effects of the pandemic for years.
Unlike the rest of its peers in the G7 group of large and rich countries, Britain’s economy was still smaller at the end of 2022 than it was before the first lockdown—0.8% smaller, to be precise, than in the final quarter of 2019. That compares with growth of 1.2% in France and 5.1% in America over the same period. The Economist has run the rule over the GDP numbers between the final quarters of 2019 and 2022. The data show that the damage has been very unevenly distributed (see chart).
The big winners have been the laptop classes. The “information and communication” sector grew by 12.3% between the final quarter of 2019 and the same period in 2022, amounting to a £3.9bn ($4.7bn) increase in output after accounting for inflation. The sector includes the IT industry and telecommunications, as well Britain’s film and TV studios. The growth industry has been the IT sector, up by 20.7% since December 2019 as more activity has shifted online. (In contrast, film and TV is 9.5% smaller, largely because audiences have failed to return to the cinema after lockdowns ended.)
Britain’s mammoth professional and support-services industries, encompassing lawyers, accountants, consultants, architects and the like, together grew by £6.3bn. Over a third of that growth was due to a £2.3bn increase in output for “employment activities” alone, a subsector that includes recruiters. Post-pandemic labour shortages have been good for some. Vets, a much smaller corner of Britain’s services sector, have seen a rise in output of 54%, owing to a tsunami of lockdown puppies.
Employees in white-collar industries have been the great beneficiaries of the shift to working from home. According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), around 30% of professionals and 49% of administrative and secretarial workers were working only from the office between September 2022 and January 2023. That compares with 81% of sales and customer-service representatives, and 86% of workers in caring and leisure jobs.
The long-moribund manufacturing sector (around 9% of national income) has more than recovered: output is slightly above its pre-covid level. But better performance in some areas, most notably pharmaceuticals, disguises weaknesses in others. A 35% increase in the production of pills and vaccines has more than offset a fall in transport-equipment manufacturing—meaning cars and other motor vehicles—of 31%. Brexit, which has raised barriers to export, is partly to blame for that decline; until recently, carmakers also had to cope with a dearth of semiconductors.
Many of the culprits for Britain’s dismal growth over the past three years have a distinctly pandemic-era flavour. Retail, which accounts for around a tenth of GDP, is the biggest loser. But its laggard status actually owes more to the cost-of-living crisis than to covid-19. During the pandemic the retail sector was helped by online sales and by British households spending their pandemic-era savings on goods rather than in shuttered restaurants and bars. But as retail prices have increased Britons have been spending more but getting less for their money. According to the ONS, the value of retail sales in December 2022 was 13% higher than three years before but retail volumes were 1.7% lower.
A similar phenomenon bedevils the public sector. Unlike many of its peers in the G7, Britain’s number-crunchers attempt to measure the volume of output the sector produces rather than the amount the government spends on it (just as it tries to measure the number of cars rolling off production lines for manufacturing). That statistical difference contributed to an unusually steep fall in British national income compared with its peers during the pandemic; other economies may still be flattered by the comparison as a result.
Although Britain is spending more than ever on health care—£212bn in 2022 compared with £160bn in 2019, by the ONS’s count—it is getting far less for its money.
Health-care and social-work output was, after adjusting for inflation, £4.6bn lower in December 2022 than three years earlier. Covid plays its part. Research by Max Warner and Ben Zaranko of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank, suggests that there are fewer hospital beds for non-covid patients than before. Patients have more complex health problems due to conditions that went untreated in the pandemic.
Transport, similarly, is showing the lingering effects of coronavirus. Output is down by around 10%. That partly reflects the disruption caused by train strikes but it is also because working from home is more embedded in the British economy than in many of its peers. According to mobility data from Google, the number of Britons in “workplaces” is still 7% below February 2020; in France there is no change from that baseline. That might, ultimately, be to Britons’ benefit, whatever the economic data say. Time saved by skipping the commute is not included in GDP figures.
Not every one of these trends will last. Audiences may yet make a full return to cinemas; retail sales should rise again if inflation continues to fall. Labour-market data, published on February 14th, suggests that a covid-era increase in the ranks of the economically inactive—those who are out of work and not looking for a job—is beginning to unwind. The laptop classes, however, are here for good.
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Arthur L. 邀請您參加排程的 Zoom 會議。
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Arthur L. 邀請您參加排程的 Zoom 會議。
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You may have heard of the term ‘carbohydrate counting’. This is when you learn to count the amount of carbohydrate in foods. It’s often used in type 1 diabetes where individuals then match their insulin to their carbohydrate intake. However, there is some evidence to support carbohydrate counting in reducing type 2 diabetes risk to improve the knowledge of how much carbohydrate is being consumed at meals and snacks to assist in lowering or adjusting quantities and thus significantly improving blood glucose levels.
Your coach will have guided you to look at this module to explore the concept of counting the carbohydrate in your food. So let's get started... here are the 3 key aspects to counting carbohydrate:
Step 1 – Identify carbohydrates in food
Step 2 - Count the carbohydrate in food
Four possible options:
Handy measures Reading food labels Weighing food Visual aids Step 3 – What am I aiming for?
Meals: 30-50g carbohydrate Snacks: 10-15g carbohydrate
In order to reduce rises in blood glucose throughout the day, it’s important to look at the kind of snacks that are eaten between meals.
There is mixed evidence for snacking. Some evidence suggests that avoiding snacks helps to reduce your overall daily calorie intake. Other evidence supports eating small, healthy snacks to stop overeating at mealtimes.
If you don’t tend to snack between meals, there is no evidence that you should start. However, if you do typically snack, now is a good time to look at what you are snacking on. This is not only from a calorie perspective if you are trying to lose weight, but also from a carbohydrate perspective to help daily blood glucose levels and overall HbA1c.
As a general rule, try to not exceed greater than 15g carbohydrate between meals. Here are some ideas below.
word Snacks
Carbohydrate-free snacks 30g unsalted nuts – cashews, peanuts, pistachios, almonds, walnuts etc.
20g pumpkin seeds, sunflower seeds, mixed seeds Edamame beans Vegetable kebab skewers Handful of olives Vegetable sticks Boiled egg or scrambled egg (no milk) Sugar-free jelly pot Babybel 20-30g hard cheese Snacks of 10-15g carbohydrate Dairy 200ml glass of milk 125g pot of yoghurt Fruit 1 piece of fruit – choose a small to medium-sized apple, orange, small banana, pear, nectarine, or kiwi 1 handful of berries, such as around 20 blueberries or 8-10 medium strawberries 2 small fruits, such as satsumas, plums, fresh apricots ½ grapefruit A small handful of chopped pineapple, mango or melon 1 small box of raisins (15g) Other Read the food label for less than 15g of ‘total carbohydrate’ 1-2 Ryvita, oatcakes or rice cakes 1 small bag of baked crisps – Wotsits, Quavers, Popchips 20-30g plain popcorn
The T plate model is a widely-used method to help people get to grips with appropriate portion sizes. It is a useful guide for those looking to reduce their risk of diabetes, manage their diabetes, reduce their weight, or simply if they want to eat healthily. The principle of this model, is to split your plate or dish into sections, so firstly split the plate in half, then split one of those halves into half again meaning that your plate is split into one half and two quarters. Please note this is different to the EatWell plate, which focuses on the whole day of food, this focuses on portions at your meal time.
For one quarter of the plate, this is filled with starchy carbohydrates, e.g. rice, pasta, potatoes, grains, bread roll etc. Use what you have learnt about glycaemic index and fibre to help you to inform your choices. Keeping carbohydrates to one quarter of your plate can help you to manage your calorie intake and also having a sensible amount of carbohydrates will mean we don’t see a big rise in blood glucose after your meal. This advice is still relevant if you are following a low carbohydrate diet too.
The other quarter should be filled with lean protein, e.g. meat, fish, eggs, beans, lentils, soya or other vegetarian alternatives. Protein is an important part of this plate as it helps us to feel full so can help to manage hunger.
image of knife and carrotThe remaining half should be filled with salad or vegetables. These foods provide us with vitamins, minerals, antioxidants and are high in fibre and can help to fill us up too. They have minimal effect on blood glucose levels and are low in calories so are a great tool for weight management too. The other consideration is additional fats or sauces. Try where possible to cook with only a small amount of fat, if you require it, and try to use low-calorie dressings. This, again, is a useful tool for weight management. image of knife and fork
What about dishes that I can’t lay out on a plate?
Not all dishes will be laid out on a plate, but you can still apply the same principles to these dishes. Think about the components of the dish and try to divide them in the same amounts, so around one quarter being carbohydrates, one quarter protein and half to be vegetables or salad.
What if I find this too difficult?
This is the ideal plate model that we want to work towards, but if you feel that this is far from your current portions, have a think about where you are now and what could be realistic for you to make improvements. For example, if your plate now is half carbohydrates and half protein, could you move towards a model of 1/3 carbohydrates, 1/3 protein and 1/3 veg/salad? If you’re unsure, discuss with your coach what may be an appropriate portion distribution for you right now.
For a fun way to get familiar with the different food groups and nutrients, To help gather awareness of the categorisation of foods, have a go look at this game.