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Member since 2017-07-15T03:50:57Z. Last seen 2025-01-02T20:05:01Z.
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Unpopular but very probably true fact: email can't practicably be made secure, and people should stop trying. Email is itself archaic, and there aren't good reasons people should use it for routine peer-to-peer communications that need secrecy. Why? Because: It's default-plaintext. We don't generally love the way websites ensure they're viewed securely, but email doesn't even have the basic mechanisms HTTP has to prevent secrets from accidentally being sent in the clear. Email encryption is never forward-secure. The most popular standard, OpenPGP, involves a long-term key that is the root of secrecy for all messages from a particular person. Lose that key, ever, and not only is every message you send in the future unsafe, but every message you've ever sent in the past is too. That's a terrible property for a secure messaging system. Email leaks metadata. In fact, some of what we call email "metadata" isn't even metadata --- stuff like subject lines are simply content. They're sent in plaintext. We would never accept a new secure messaging system that behaved like that. Most email users get their email from a website. Unless you make them install something on all their computers --- and at that point, just get them to install Signal, WhatsApp, or Wire --- "encrypting" their email involves schemes in which those websites can get their plaintext mail. * Most email clients are searchable-archive-by-default. Again, if you're using a secure messaging system to keep secrets from a state-level adversary, that's exactly what you don't want. And again, what matters here is the behavior of the overwhelming majority of clients. If you can stipulate a special mail client that is extra-careful, why not stipulate a forward-secure advanced messaging system and stop bothering with email? Everything that makes email effective in the real world makes it inhospitable to secure messaging. We should stop trying to push this particular boulder up this particular mountain and instead just get people to adopt serious secure messengers.
257 doener 1 day 140
e-mail Logo Autocrypt-capable mail apps work with any e-mail provider. You and your friends can use your existing e-mail addresses.
Encryption Logo Autocrypt is an open specification for e-mail encryption. Under the hood, it uses OpenPGP and other e-mail standards.
Autocrypt is a set of guidelines for convenient end-to-end-encryption of e-mails. Developers are working on bringing it to several different e-mail programs.
Does it already work?
The first specification, Level 1, was released in December 2017. A few mail programs are already capable of Autocrypt, some want to be able of Autocrypt in Spring 2018.
Please join us in implementing and refining Autocrypt Level 1 and other upcoming specifications. For any further questions or feedback, see our Contact Page.
Test it now
158 Radim 14 hrs 87
http://quillette.com/2018/01/05/empathy-gap-tech-interview-software-engineer/
Last year I was working on an article about the tech industry when I decided to interview a software engineer who writes for Quillette under the pseudonym “Gideon Scopes”. Gideon had mentioned to me in passing that he had Asperger’s Syndrome (a mild variant of autism spectrum disorder) and I wanted to find out more about the industry from the point of view of someone who is not neurotypical.
I first asked him when it was that he knew he wanted to work in technology. He told me that he first knew it when he was five. His family got their first home computer and he was transfixed. Later, he would come across a brief introduction to the BASIC programming language in a book and proceed to teach himself his first programming language. He was only seven.
As a child he taught himself programming out of books, mostly alone at home. He told me that his family were not particularly supportive of his hobby. His mother was not happy to see him focus so intently on one interest and viewed his study of programming “as the equivalent of a kid spending too much time watching TV.”
Growing up in suburban New York, he told me that a compiler for a programming language would cost at least $100, and programming books generally cost $40-60 each. His only source of income was a $1 per week allowance, so it would take him a year or two to save for just one item. This was despite the fact that his parents were in a high income bracket, and could have easily provided resources to help him learn. He learned anyway.
Despite his cognitive ability, however, Gideon underperformed early on in his schooling. He thinks it may have been because he experienced the school environment as overly rigid and inflexible, and the work was just not challenging enough to engage him. It wasn’t until he was able to take accelerated math and science classes that his grades reflected his ability.
Fast forward several years, and today Gideon is a successful senior software engineer in a prestigious technology company in New York. He loves his job and he loves where he works. He is grateful for the fact that his company values his work, and not how he promotes himself and how he dresses. He feels that the technology industry rewards talent and hard work, and that it is one of the best places for “Aspies” to be. He tells me that the only drawback is the occasional bar event (where he doesn’t like the noise) and a weird and somewhat rigid political culture.
A paper authored by Simon Baron Cohen et al in 2001, outlines a brief measurement tool for screening for autism in adults who have normal or above average intelligence. The tool, which is called the Autism Spectrum Quotient (ASQ) can be self-administered and only requires a pencil and paper; individuals receive a score from 1 – 50 with scores closer to 50 representing a higher likelihood of having Aspergers or High Functioning Autism (HFA).
In validating the test, Baron-Cohen assessed a range of adults including some with Aspergers or HFA, randomly selected controls, students in Cambridge University and winners of the UK Mathematics Olympiad.
The results were remarkable. Adults with Aspergers or HFA had an average score of 35.8, much higher than the controls who had an average score of 16.4, (with men on average scoring slightly higher than women). Among the Cambridge University students the average score was the same as the control group, except mathematicians and scientists scored significantly higher than humanities and social sciences students, which, the researchers claimed, “confirm[ed] an earlier study that autistic conditions are associated with scientific skills”. Within the sciences, those studying mathematics scored the highest. This was again reflected in the scores found in the winners of the Mathematics Olympiad, who had an average score of 32.7.
More recently, in 2015, a team of researchers led by Baron-Cohen collected the autism quotient scores of half a million people on the UK’s Channel 4 website, after the airing of a medical education program. They found that the mean AQ score was 19.83, with men scoring 21.55 and women scoring 18.95. They also found that individuals working in STEM careers had a higher average score (21.92) compared to those who didn’t work in STEM (18.92).
The theory underpinning Baron-Cohen’s work is the prenatal sex steroid theory. The theory posits that when a baby’s brain is developing in utero, the amounts of hormones produced by the ovaries or testes his or her brain is exposed to affects its development. Baron-Cohen’s theory predicts that exposure to higher levels of testosterone in the prenatal period leads to a “masculinization” of the brain, which can result in symptoms associated with autism. Such symptoms include higher rates of delayed language, reduced eye contact as well as higher attention to detail and a stronger interest in systems than people.
Critics of Baron-Cohen’s work have long said that while his hypotheses are interesting, the evidence so far has been insufficient. The core criticisms have focused on his reliance on proxy measures for prenatal testosterone (looking at digit ratio rather than sampling amniotic fluid directly) and self reported measures of behaviour, such as pencil and paper or online surveys. These methods have not been adequate, claim the critics.
Such criticisms have been met with further research, however. In 2015, Baron-Cohen published the results of the first direct test of amniotic hormonal fluid levels and their relation to the development of autism later in life. He found a clear relationship – boys with autism had been exposed to elevated levels of testosterone, cortisol and other sex steroid hormones in utero. When the study was published, The Guardian quoted Baron-Cohen, who explained: “in the womb, boys produce about twice as much testosterone as girls, but compared with typical boys, the autism group has even higher levels. It’s a significant difference and may have a large effect on brain development.”
Autistic boys exposed to higher levels of hormones in womb, study finds http://t.co/gsjzDqRM53
— Guardian Science (@guardianscience) June 3, 2014
In my interview with Gideon, he mentions Baron-Cohen’s work to me. He tells me that it resonates with his own experience and his experience of taking computer science classes at university. With regard to the tech industry he says—
I’ve opted to stay in the closet at work to avoid the risk of either being discriminated against on account of the AS label, having others unfairly discriminated against in the name of helping me (à la affirmative action), or being perceived, whether correctly or incorrectly, as having gotten where I am because of my diagnosis rather than on merit. There are a number of people I’ve met over the years who I suspect are likely on the spectrum, but I can’t really bring it up in a work setting. I definitely find that software engineers tend to have higher levels of autistic traits than the average person on the street, even if the overwhelming majority wouldn’t have enough to qualify for a diagnosis.
People with Asperger’s or high functioning autism often struggle socially, and those with more severe versions of the syndrome are often incapacitated in the social realm. So I asked Gideon what his social life was like growing up. This was where the story became fraught. Gideon says that he was mostly a loner at school, but made one friend in second grade and another in fourth grade, whom he felt very close to. But things eventually changed. He wrote to me in an email—
During sixth grade, my two friends from elementary school both turned their backs on me. With David he did so by telling me, “I was never your friend. I just took pity on you.” At the time, I was perplexed by the comment and didn’t understand why I was someone to be pitied. Looking back on it now, I wonder if he may have known about my AS [Asperger’s Syndrome] years before I did. In seventh grade, I made some new friends, but that only lasted for a few months before they each decided that I wasn’t cool enough for them.
Gideon also suffered serious bullying in elementary school and middle school. He was picked on by both girls and boys; and at times this escalated into violence. One boy was suspended from school after repeatedly trapping him and violently strangling him in a busy hallway near the gym during passing time.
Despite these social difficulties and other symptoms such as hypersensitivity to touch and prosopagnosia (difficulty recognising faces) it wasn’t until he was in college that he received a diagnosis of Aspergers Syndrome. He says the “breakthrough came during a Yom Kippur service during my junior year”
I was standing there in the sanctuary, and the distress from the shirt I was wearing was such that I couldn’t focus on the service. It felt horrible—there I was at the service on the holiest day of the year to atone for my sins against God and other people, and all I could think about was my own suffering! Then, this crazy theory came to me. I had read something several months earlier about the similarity between Asperger’s syndrome and the traits that characterize a “nerd” or “geek” in popular culture. I had also heard something years earlier about autistic people having issues with certain types of clothing similar to my own. I put the two together and wondered if I could have some very mild level of autism. After the holiday was over, I went on Google and typed in “Asperger’s syndrome.” I pressed enter, and my life changed forever.
When the tech industry is written about in the media, it is often portrayed in terms of its maleness and sometimes “macho” qualities, exemplified by the widespread use of the epithet “techbros” and “brogrammers”. As an example, a book about the Valley has just been released with the portmanteau Brotopia as its title. This is a growing phenomenon.
Yet the tech industry more broadly is rarely discussed in terms of friendliness towards those with high functioning autism, such as Gideon. On the job selection process Gideon says:
When you come for a coding interview, it’s a three- to five-hour-long oral exam. Show us what you can do. That’s what we care about, ultimately, not how good you are at talking yourself up or what you look like.
Speaking of what someone looks like, the fact that software engineers largely have the freedom to dress as they please is huge for those of us with sensory differences that affect clothing. Before I realized that this would be such a non-issue in my field, I was worried that I’d have trouble finding a job at all if I insisted on being able to work and interview under humane conditions. I suspect that people with similar sensory issues whose interests and aptitudes lie elsewhere may face a really tough situation that I’ve been fortunate enough to not have to deal with.
On the day to day work experience he says—
The technology industry is one of the most Aspie-friendly places that there is. The social demands on software engineers mostly consist of collaborating with colleagues to build a product, so if your social skills are good enough to handle that and you’ve got good technical skills, you can be very successful.
Gideon tells me that in his experience there are many autistic traits that don’t fit at all with our cultural conception of masculinity. Hypersensitivity to sensory stimulation is one of them, as is the tendency for those with autism to develop anxiety and depression—conditions that in the general population are higher in women than in men—the predilection of autistic people to prefer consistency and predictability also contrasts with the masculine trait of risk-taking.
Nevertheless, individuals who are adept at systematising tend to be good at the tasks which are profitable in today’s information economy. Baron-Cohen’s work shows that systematisers tend to be interested in patterns, and can quickly spot them in natural, mathematic or mechanical settings. A good empathiser, by contrast, can quickly spot emotional states in others. While both skills are vital, and have been crucial to our evolution as a species, our modern economy increasingly rewards those who can build systems which scale, ratcheting up productivity and efficiency. Often—but not always—it’s systematisers who do this (it’s also worth remembering that this will not last forever, with the advent of automation and AI).
Yet the fact that systematisers are often well remunerated in today’s economy does not mean that these individuals have lives that are necessarily easier, or even happier than the average person. A person who is an outlier on the systematising spectrum might find it hard to make friends, find a girlfriend or boyfriend, and engage in the day-to-day social activities that make up so much of our lives. Last year, Thomas Clements, a writer with autism, wrote for Quillette—
Every morning when I wake up I feel a heavy sense of trepidation as I contemplate the complex series of social interactions I will have to navigate in order to make it through the day at work. Being on the autism spectrum makes me instinctively averse to the superficial chit-chat I am expected to engage in in my job as a retail cashier. To my mind at least, small-talk serves no real practical purpose. It just makes me feel on edge and increases my overall stress levels as I expend huge amounts of cognitive energy decoding idioms and non-verbal communication…I am prone to be blunt, sometimes to the point of rudeness, which is a personality trait that tends not to sit especially well with many members of the so-called ‘neuro-typical’ or non-autistic world.
As accounts like Thomas’s describe, autism can be extremely debilitating, especially if one sits further out on the spectrum. But even those who are “high functioning” often describe social anxieties, unemployment and prejudice. The fact that the tech industry is perceived by some as being “friendly” towards those with autistic traits could be seen as a positive attribute—and one that deserves recognition.
But the industry does not receive recognition for being friendly. Most of the media attention that the industry attracts focuses on sexism. For example, The New Yorker recently published “The Tech Industry’s Gender Discrimination Problem,” which argued that the lack of women in companies such as Tesla was due to a rampant culture of misogyny, on par with the criminal predation of Harvey Weinstein. In April 2017, the prestigious The Atlantic ran a cover story titled: “Why is Silicon Valley so Awful to Women.”
The Atlantic’s April 2017 issue.
The articles in The Atlantic and New Yorker contained the same reasoning. which can be reduced to the following syllogism:
The ratio of men and women in the tech industry is uneven, There are cases of sexism and sexual harassment within the tech industry, Sexism and sexual harassment has caused the imbalanced gender ratio. Of course, women are sexually harassed in the tech industry just as they are harassed in every other industry in which they work—so the first two components of the above reasoning are correct. But the third is simply unfounded. There is little evidence that shows that harassment in tech is any higher than other industries, such as public administration, government, academia or media (in fact there is evidence that the prevalence is lower). Statistics collected on sexual harassment find, overwhelmingly, that the majority of reported cases occur in low-wage and service sector jobs. The causal evidence showing that sexism causes the gender imbalance simply isn’t there.
What we do know, however, is that while girls and women do meet the diagnosis for autism spectrum disorder, the ratio between men and women sits somewhere between 5:1 to 3:1. We also know that men and women’s interests diverge in ways that are congruent with Baron-Cohen’s systematising- empathising spectrum. Women overwhelmingly prefer working with people, and have “artistic” and “social” vocational interests, and men overwhelmingly prefer working with things and have “investigative,” “enterprising,” “realistic,” and “conventional,” interests.
Indeed, academics at the Heterodox Academy have concurred that the most important sex difference that is relevant to the question of unequal gender ratios in certain industries is that of enjoyment and interest. My interview subject, Gideon, did not need any direction from a teacher to learn coding. He learned it because he was transfixed by computers, and teaching himself to code was a pleasurable activity for him. When I ask if there are any benefits to having Asperger’s Syndrome he says—
For me, the hyper-focused special interest aspect of autism is one of the greatest joys in the world and a significant part of why I’ve been able to be so successful at what I do. I wouldn’t trade it for anything. The extremely strong memory and navigation skills are also very much something to cherish. Certainly, there have been plenty of difficulties when it comes to how I’ve been perceived by others, especially as a child, and how to navigate a world that’s built for people whose sensory perceptions work differently from mine. I believe that most of this can be fixed in good time through awareness and understanding.
My discussion with Gideon made me reflect. If the technology industry is indeed a friendly place for Aspies and those who have subclinical levels of autistic traits, then intuitively, it is going to attract and retain more men than women (at least in the engineering streams) due to baseline rates of systematising, combined with men’s demonstrated interest in working with “things” rather than people. Stating this is not sexism, it is simply engaging in probabilistic reasoning.
Of course, none of this rules out sexism and sexual harassment as playing a role in deterring women or prompting women to leave the industry once they are there. But any discussion of women in tech should at least mention sex differences in systematising and autistic traits, and sex differences in vocational interests as a relevant factor, even if it is to rule these factors out. Of course, the recent articles in The Atlantic and New Yorker do no such thing.
James Damore, who wrote the infamous ‘Google Memo,’ has recently said that he may have high functioning autism himself.
Most balanced @guardian piece on #GoogleMemo. I brought up personality differences to de-gender workplace issues and diagnose the root cause. Alas, none of the criticisms addressed testosterone→systemizing→career preference.https://t.co/TQ6wvSrQEo
— James Damore (@JamesADamore) November 21, 2017
In The Guardian, he was reported as saying—“my biggest flaw and strength may be that I see things very differently than normal…I’m not necessarily the best at predicting what would be controversial.”
In considering Damore’s experience, it’s important to remember the caveats that Damore included in his memo. He wrote:
Note, I’m not saying that all men differ from all women in the following ways or that these differences are “just.” I’m simply stating that the distribution of preferences and abilities of men and women differ in part due to biological causes and that these differences may explain why we don’t see equal representation of women in tech and leadership. Many of these differences are small and there’s significant overlap between men and women, so you can’t say anything about an individual given these population level distributions.
Despite this, he was, of course, fired for “perpetuating gender stereotypes”.
In an email, Gideon mentioned to me that when the news first broke about Damore and the Google Memo, he immediately suspected that Damore “was on the spectrum,” and possibly further out on the spectrum than himself. When I asked him to explain why, and he said:
If he didn’t get the message that the women in science movement wasn’t interested in dialogue and is glad to destroy anyone who questioned it then he must be [on the spectrum]. The only reason why it was him rather than me winding up that [kind of] situation is that I realized what was happening well enough to keep my mouth shut at work and to also turn down an offer from Google, since I knew that they [are] one of the worst offenders, if not the worst.
I asked Gideon if he thought that the American media painted a distorted picture of the gender gap in tech. He told me yes. He chalked it up to three factors: a growing tendency towards collectivism in American culture, combined with a blank slate view of human nature and an empathy gap towards men.
He said that society increasingly sees groups instead of individuals, to the extent that group rights may supersede individual rights in all sorts of contexts, including politicised work environments. Because contemporary moral codes delineate women as vulnerable or marginalised, we stop seeing them as individuals with unique talents and idiosyncrasies, but as representatives of a victimised class. The reverse is true of men. Because women are now a victimised class, men are increasingly seen as victimisers, irrespective of their individual attributes or actions.
The second factor, he thought, was an attachment to an outdated, blank slate view of human nature. He says that many people still insist on seeing the human brain as predominantly moulded by culture, despite scientific evidence to the contrary. There tends to be a hesitancy towards attributing any differences between people to any cause that is biological in origin. This hesitancy has been around for decades, and appears like it will not be alleviated anytime soon.
And the third factor, Gideon said, was the empathy gap, where we tend to be more receptive to women’s pain than men’s. When women talk about being made to feel uncomfortable at work, or being sexually harassed, we feel empathy and want to punish the wrong-doers. But we don’t have the same reaction for “geeks,” or “techbros”. Because our understanding of neurodiversity is painfully lacking, our culture tends to view men as a homogenous category, seeing all men as inheritors of privilege and all men as possessing the masculine traits that foster toughness and resilience. We have a habit of ignoring those who don’t, and when they do talk about their vulnerability, we are inclined to ignore, or ridicule them for it.
Claire Lehmann is the editor of Quillette. Follow her on Twitter @clairlemon
中大醫學院助理院長（研究）徐仲鍈兩年前創辦了Health View Bioanalytic，重點項目為全球首創的自動分析中風風險系統，而且適用於糖尿病和認知障礙症評估。作為一位創業的學者，既要寫論文，又要推銷產品，堪稱大忙人的他幽自己一默說：「愈多商業經驗愈好，至少給學生的意見不會太離地。」
徐仲鍈是生物統計學專家，有豐富臨床測試經驗，亦擅長大數據分析。他與團隊研發的「全自動視網膜圖像分析系統」（ARIA），只需以攝影機為眼底血管拍照（簡稱眼底相），上載到雲端伺服器後，5分鐘內便可計算到一個分數，反映中風機率的高低。
「不少人以為大數據是王道，惟他們忘了背後最重要的是分析。有幾萬張眼底相又如何？分析精準才是重點。」徐仲鍈指出，眼睛的血管與大腦相連，觀察血管收窄、分叉角度異常等特徵，便能評估腦血管的狀況，以及中風、糖尿病、認知障礙症的風險。
無痛檢查大眾化
醫學界提倡Health Promotion（健康促進），幫助人加強管理健康，藉此減輕醫療體系的壓力。ARIA的條件有利實現這目標，以拍攝眼底相的儀器為例，一般眼鏡店也具備此設施；加上系統操作簡單，視光師亦懂得使用。
除了跟連鎖眼鏡店合作，ARIA價錢方面亦大眾化，每次收費約1000元，比磁力共振（MRI）或電腦掃描（CT Scan）每次收費數千元便宜得多。因此，能以低成本把「治未病」的訊息帶到社區。
徐仲鍈認為，「不用抽血，沒有輻射問題，就算經常做評估，亦不會傷害身體。這些優點都能鼓勵諱疾忌醫的人，做多點身體檢查。」
ARIA的作用是風險評估，無法診斷病症，但用戶獲悉自己是中風高危人士後，可做進一步的檢查，改變不良生活習慣，從而對症下藥，「如戒除煙酒，不費一文就能扭轉人生。在避免中風造成的經濟損失，如身體永久損傷，以致無法工作等，ARIA的效益很大。」
先發表研究易被抄
創業不是童話，本身為教授的徐仲鍈，更感如履薄冰。2007年，他加入中大創業研究中心執行委員會，有感對創業所知有限，不足以幫助學生裝備彈藥，「我要做負責任的教授，我要創業」的主意驀然而生，但很快他就按下念頭，「那時大學不鼓勵教授有副業，辭職創業，妻兒怎辦？」
而且，生物統計學並非應用科學，很少教授為此類分析數據的研究註冊專利。沒有專利，科研產品不易獲得市場認受。
中大化學病理學系主任盧煜明教授在2008年請徐仲鍈解決科研上的統計學問題，後來該科研取得專利，分析亦成為專利一部分。這經驗令徐仲鍈有很大的啟發，「原來不只應用科學，近似數學的研究亦能取得專利。」時至2012年，他眼見ARIA成熟，遂申請專利，終於至2014年在美國成功取得。
2014年機會來了，創新科技署推出「大學科技初創企業資助計劃」（TSSSU），徐仲鍈靜觀其變，見其他教授創業後安然無恙，遂於同年底申請該計劃，2015年獲批資助，進駐科學園，成為科技創業培育計劃一員。
大學容許教職員開公司，惟影響晉升的「關鍵績效指標」（KPI），卻仍偏重於論文的發表。徐仲鍈經驗之談，教授要創業，手上須有大量科研成果，然後策略性地發表論文（出紙）。逐步實現KPI之餘，另外亦要留一手，忍着不出紙，為註冊專利及產品「落地」鋪路。「以眼底相為例，如當初先出紙，便成了Prior Art（現有技術）。已發表的研究不能申請專利，亦容易被抄襲。內地很快賣到成行成市，真貨假貨都跟你競爭，最終Health Promotion會變質。」
期望投資者勿賺盡
為了開拓市場和人脈，徐仲鍈事事親力親為，寫商業計劃書，擺招商攤子，向潛在投資者推銷產品，「原來推銷跟演講是兩回事，初時我一股腦兒介紹產品和願景，但投資者最想知的是賺錢方式、幾時回本。」
ARIA從2016年推出至今，已有6000多人次使用，並取得台灣及內地專利。去年，香港路德會社會服務處為300名職業司機測試ARIA，結果發現他們患有中度中風風險的比例，較一般社區人士高出2.28倍，成功吸引社會各界關注。產品漸見成績，他雄心壯志，要把ARIA推行至全世界，造福貧苦大眾。可惜，不少潛在投資者打退堂鼓，覺得無巨利可圖。
「怪不得他們，然而賺錢之餘，是否也能考慮Social Impact呢？其實不用賺太多錢，賺足夠的錢，不就可以了嗎？」徐仲鍈說，招牌的哈哈笑聲又再迴盪。
採訪、攝影：蕭瑩盈
根據荷蘭一家導航服務公司TomTom的調查資料，港人每天花逾半小時塞車，一年平均虛耗145小時。因此，香港政府於去年12月中公布《香港智慧城市藍圖》的6個範疇之中，率先談及「智慧出行」。藍圖提及「安裝車內感應器讓駕駛者接收實時交通資訊」、「在所有主要幹道安裝約1200個交通探測器，提供實時交通資訊」。其實，統計數字顯示，每個港人平均擁有超過兩部手機，坊間亦早有手機程式共享實時路面情況，包括路上事故及其他危險狀況，惟資料主要靠參與者主動提供，數據並不全面。香港如果能像外地般，結集並公開各個流動電訊商整合的客戶手機資料，哪段道路通暢無阻、哪個地鐵站出了事故，不就一目了然嗎？
根據美國法例定義，「整合資料」（Aggregate Information）意指綜合一組客戶的數據，個別客戶的身份及特徵已被移除，變成匿名資料並將之開放，方便市民之餘，也可激發社會創意，推動智慧城市發展，更大可促進經濟。
電動車生產商Tesla市值去年曾超越BMW等著名車廠；經營電召車業務的Uber，估值高達700億美元；Facebook花了190億美元買下盈利相對微小的WhatsApp；微軟收購招聘社交平台LinkedIn，作價262億美元。以上企業的共通點就是掌握龐大的數據，例如Tesla的電動車收集到的行車數據達13億英里，遠遠拋離Google的無人駕駛Waymo在過去8年累積的數百萬里數。
世界各國都意識到數據是「新石油」的道理，中東城巿杜拜便從去年開始售賣匿名的流動數據，例如交通流量、街道人流等，又開拓數據分析服務，估計每年盈利達29億美元；日本去年5月實施新的私隱條例，容許機構轉售匿名的客戶資訊，個人資料保障處長直言是希望促進商業分析業；美國也批准電訊商自由運用整合了的客戶資料；新加坡更加積極，其3間電訊商Singtel、Starhub和M1都提供數據分析服務。
香港方面，目前電訊商牌照依然規定不准把客戶資料作電訊以外用途；在《香港智慧城市藍圖》中，「空間數據共享平台」（CSDI）於2023年才可望實現，這樣的步伐怎不令人焦急？
新加坡未來經濟委員會（CFE）成員陳振聲一語中的，指出大數據的非凡價值，在於協助新加坡「突破土地狹小、人力不足和天然資源匱乏的限制」，這何嘗不是我們的共同期望。
鄧淑明博士 香港大學計算機科學系榮譽教授
習近平主席在十九大報告中重申「全面管治權」，中國共產黨在香港的身影正愈趨公開；月前便有「學習貫徹黨的十九大精神中央宣港團」來港，歷史性地首度向特區政府官員宣講黨策。自今年特首換屆林鄭上台以來，特區政府全面緊跟黨中央的路線，香港地位亦逐漸與其他省市看齊，已是路人皆知的事實。
不是炒賣的長租公寓
不過，正所謂「上有政策，下有對策」，習主席在十九大報告已明確指出：「堅持房子是用來住的、不是用來炒的定位，加快建立多主體供給、多渠道保障、租購並舉的住房制度，讓全體人民住有所居。」林鄭去年10月在《施政報告》堅持「以置業為主導」的房屋新政，充分反映「一國兩制」下香港仍擁有「高度自治權」。
在內地「租購並舉」甚至是「以租代買」，正迅速通過政策扶持而極速發展。例如北京和上海自去年開始，住宅用地均規定相當的自持開發比重，驅使不少大型房企發展長租公寓，甚至提升為集團策略發展方向之一。尤其是在「北上廣」這些一線城市，月供和租金差距不斷加大，置業自住的需求已難以持續，長租公寓實可幫助房企開拓新的增長點，長線並提供較穩定的收入來源。
事實上，隨着「四縱四橫」的全國高鐵網絡全面建成，城際間的地理距離已大大縮窄，居住模式亦正起着翻天覆地的變化。就以廣深港高鐵和港珠澳大橋為例，不管我們同意與否，確已令「一小時生活圈」由概念化成現實，居民在圈內可更便捷地穿梭游走，毋須僵化地屯駐在特定的地理位置上。套用研究共享經濟先驅Jeremy Rifkin的說法，擁有資產（若非用作炒賣）不但沒有必要，甚至可能構成一種負累。
「置業安居」迷思
與內地具前瞻性的政策剛好相反，特區政府對地產霸權的長期依附，政商之間存在千絲萬縷的糾結，早已令「置業安居」成為牢不可破的迷思。當樓市在六七年前開始變得熾熱，前朝曾蔭權政府便推出「置安心」計劃，實行以租金回贈作為供樓補貼；同期又推出青年宿舍計劃，亦以幫助年輕人儲首期為目標。兩項計劃均從租住房屋出發，但只當作一個過渡性安排，視為置業階梯上的中轉站，「以買代租」才是終極的政策目標。
這難免令人想到林鄭上台後推出的「過渡性社會共享房屋」計劃，主要為正在輪候入住公屋的基層市民，提供為期兩年、同屬過渡性質的租住房屋。值得注意的是，這些單位主要來自市區舊樓，包括已由市建局和地產商收購、正等待重建發展的閒置物業。在計劃推出的短短4個月內，已經有多達200個單位願意參與，預計至2019年更會有合共多達500個單位供應。
毋庸諱言，這些物業的保養維修狀況迥異，但公益金亦只以每個單位平均10萬元、最高不超過20萬元的金額，資助共享房屋的基本維修費用，500個單位的預算投入總額也不過是5000萬元，已能於未來數年為1000個家庭提供中短期安身之所。
這個數字正好披露一項重要訊息──經過土發公司和市建局20多年來的努力，很多樓齡較高或狀況較差的舊樓早已拆卸；市區現存不少閒置多年的物業，不少都是樓齡較低或狀況較佳的物業，經過有限度的維修後便可重新入住。
韋志成深感束手無策
正如本欄過往一再提醒，隨着外圍加息的步伐逐步逼近，樓市泡沫爆破的風險正急速上升，而林鄭的房屋新政仍一味誘使大量市民上車，公營房屋則全面商品化，成為投資甚至是炒賣的工具，惟有地產商可以趁機加速農地轉換，售樓套現之後袋袋平安，反倒買家須長期承受沉重的按揭負擔和投資風險。林鄭新政會否重蹈其最大支持者董建華「八萬五」的覆轍，實在令人難以樂觀。
正如市建局行政總裁韋志成近日不斷重申，油旺區800多幢舊樓地積比率已經耗盡，「加上發展所需的年期長，很難預測若干年後的物業市場變化……根據現時的發展模式，可容許發展1875萬平方呎建築面積的收益約為2100億元，但相比總收購成本的3476億元，有關的發展便出現接近1380億元的虧損。」（12月3日網誌）說穿了，市建局正面對樓市泡沫爆破的巨大風險，就連韋志成也深感束手無策。
事實上，香港市區重建史上亦不乏「以租代買」的成功例子，最為人熟悉的是位於油麻地的駿發花園，乃是1980年代由房協負責的重建項目。5座屋苑其中4座用作出售用途，第五座則屬於乙類公屋，主要撥作遷拆戶原區安置的用途。至於近日改為共享房屋的豉油街12號，則原是1990年代土發公司面向租戶的安置房屋；反而在2000年市建局成立之後，這類原區重置住戶的項目已不復存在。
市建局毋須獨沽一味
既然未來一段長時間內，市建局的重建項目寸步難行，何不乾脆轉向重建（Redevelopment）以外的其他「3R」業務策略──即復修（Rehabilitation）、活化（Revitalisation）和保育（Reservation），把閒置物業化身成長租公寓或其他用途？除了豉油街12號外，市建局亦正學習貫徹林鄭的號召，逐步把其他閒置單位委託社聯及其他機構代管放租。此試驗一旦成功，定必能對市建局的策略方向帶來重要的啟示。
市建局從專門毀人家園的推土機式重建，轉向深耕細作的舊區改善工程，以房屋的使用價值取代交換價值作為機構的新定位，固然無法再延續過去10多年的巨額盈利，但同時亦免卻天文數字的收購成本和財務風險。這對市建局和舊區居民來說，其實是個各得其所的雙贏方案；相反，大地產商和炒家便無法再從中上下其手，謀取暴利，這大概才是市建局轉型的最主要「障礙」。
後記：本文雖曾提及貫徹十九大精神，惟大家若有空翻查資料的話，當會發現其實早於2013年，「以租代買」的概念已詳盡見諸影子長策會《住屋不是地產》一書，及至2015年本土研究社出版的《供不得其所》，亦多有複述相關的建議。現時與其說是貫徹十九大精神，倒不如說是貫徹「住屋不是地產」、「供不得其所」的精神。特此澄清，以正視聽。
鄒崇銘 影子長策會成員
1月7日，周日。本報「智識選股」欄主伊馬仕1月4日跟大家分享了2018年狗股投資策略，並檢討此法應用於港股的實戰績效。老畢亦曾多次論述狗股策略背後理念，難得同文也有愛狗之人，今天且在伊馬仕兄大作的基礎上補一筆，先替原裝道指狗股2018年行情把把脈，再在眾狗中棄大取小，推介一個立足於道指小狗（Small Dogs of the Dow）的期權策略，冀能以有限風險博取豐厚回報。
此一念頭，源於兩個想法：①狗股策略乃價值投資法的一種變奏，老畢向來認為，要玩Value便要Deep Value，2018年道指小狗正好滿足了這個要求。何以如此，稍後再述；②舊經濟企業近年無啖好食，給新經濟對手不斷入侵。2014年以來，美股市值增長近半來自科技巨企。愈來愈多舊經濟龍頭意識到不在數碼業務上急起直追，老本早晚吃光。
從沃爾瑪四出收購，轉戰網上不遺餘力，到福特汽車賺大錢，董事局仍以CEO菲爾德斯（Mark Fields）對科技演變警覺性不足為理由把他炒掉；再從迪士尼與21世紀霍士合併影視資產力抗Netflix，到醫保領域兩強CVS跟Aetna合二為一迎戰亞馬遜，種種跡象皆顯示，傳統大藍籌已在快速調整思維，引入新經濟概念力保江山。這意味板塊輪動對「如夢初醒」的傳統巨企有利，道指中估值低殘的大狗小狗今歲翻身有望。
移植港股水土不服？
狗股策略的選股準則，伊馬仕君於上周四鴻文中已作了清楚不過的交代，不贅。值得一提且與老畢今天推介大有關係的，乃伊馬仕文內提及三個狗股策略中的第二個，即在過去一年股息率最高10隻道指成分股中，選取每股股價最低五隻為買入對象，按每隻平均配置20%資金的原則建立投資組合，持有一年後重複一遍，這就是文首談及的小狗策略。
伊馬仕以小狗策略套用於恒指，且發現從2006年至去年底頭尾12年，累計回報率157.4%，雖依然跑輸緊貼恒指的盈富基金（02800）高達191.6%的同期回報，惟在三個狗股策略中名列首位，表現遠勝另外兩個版本。
就如老畢上周六所言，懂得改錯白字不等於可以寫出好文章。投資一樣，技術上正確不代表便能賺錢。然而，在下認為有必要一提的是，道指數十年來所以遭到無數「技術正確」之輩批評，原因之一正是該指數由始至終以每股股價而非市值決定權重。在不少人眼中，這種「堅持」也許早應像糾正錯白字般改過來，但以小狗呼應大狗，在道指身上卻屬橙與橙比，合乎邏輯也。
恒指以市值定權重，把道指小狗策略移植到恒指身上，是否橙與橙比值得商榷。伊馬仕君指狗股（包括小狗）策略套用於恒指成分股，長遠來看稱不上十分成功，說不定跟狗股一經「變種」，用於港股便呈現水土不服之弊有關；反而以十隻股息率最高股份為依歸的正版狗股策略，集價值投資與股息收益於一身，施於港股乃至任何市場皆無上述「內在矛盾」，值得長線投資者考慮。
大家應該很感興趣，在下何以對2018年小狗策略寄以厚望，並決定利用期權博取高回報？先回答第一個問題。
風水輪流轉
道指2017年回報25.1%（今天推介的是期權交易，回報不計股息），而道指十狗去年回報只略超一成，在美股屢創新高的一年非但跑輸道指，落後距離且十分明顯。以十狗中每股股價最低的五隻股份組成的小狗組合，去年連股息回報亦僅9.5%，不計股息自然更乏味，跑輸正版狗股及道指更遠。弱者可以愈弱，道指小狗於華爾街熱火朝天的2017年回報令人失望，足證此說不假。既然如此，老畢何以對小狗2018年表現投以信心一票？
正如前述，傳統巨企缺少的並非資源，近年所以處處受制於新經濟對手，最重要的還是管理層不願破壞現有營運模式，相對野心勃勃的新經濟龍頭顯得不思進取。隨着沃爾瑪、福特等大藍籌陸續為決策層換入新血，股價表現隨即耳目一新，市場必將重估其他引入新經濟概念傳統巨企的投資價值，令這類股份於2018年吐氣揚眉。
Deep Value值博
潮流興講大數據，可是諸如飛機引擎、服裝供應鏈一類與商業運作有關的數據，八成以上仍操於傳統企業手裏，只要善加利用，反擊新經濟對手未必無能為力，至少可運用此等資源作出更佳的商業決定，重新引發市場憧憬。去年表現慘不忍睹的通用電氣（GE），今年取代默克藥業（Merck）躋身道指五小狗行列，倘若知恥近乎勇，不難像2017年道指股王波音一樣，否極泰來絕地反彈。
另一值得注意的趨勢是，美國監管機構上月宣布廢除要求傳統電訊商對所有網上交通一視同仁的互聯網中立（net neutrality）規定，大型電訊公司視此為重大勝利，新經濟巨擘則群起攻之。無論如何，監管環境對傳統電訊商變得有利，而Verizon於2018年道指小狗組合榜上有名，股價有望追落後。正因小狗策略去年輸得遠，今年資金若重新押注價值型股份，Deep Value更具一博之道。
伊馬仕兄在其大作的註解中提到，所介紹的三個狗股策略皆設有止蝕機制。換句話說，市況發展一旦不利，投資者便得根據預先定下的止蝕位沽貨離場。
止蝕位設立容易，關鍵卻在投資者能否管理好情緒，在大風大浪中機械式執行。與其信任自己的心理質素，老畢認為不如以輸得起的錢，運用認購期權出擊，選取一年後到期的行使價，贏麼借助槓桿放大回報，輸麼蝕盡幾多心裏有數，效果形同硬性止蝕。
一般而言，美股期權每份合約控制100股正股，若以認購期權執行道指小狗策略，很難依足20%等額分配資金的投資法門。老畢略作變通，以最少買入一份合約為成本計算基礎，2018年五隻道指小狗、相應的認購期權行使價，以及上周五每股期權金收市水平，一併在表內列出，以供讀者參考。2018，就睇老畢Call唔Call得中！
122 acostin 3 hrs 35
OK, Deep Learning has outlived its usefulness as a buzz-phrase. Deep Learning est mort. Vive Differentiable Programming! Yeah, Differentiable Programming is little more than a rebranding of the modern collection Deep Learning techniques, the same way Deep Learning was a rebranding of the modern incarnations of neural nets with more than two layers. But the important point is that people are now building a new kind of software by assembling networks of parameterized functional blocks and by training them from examples using some form of gradient-based optimization. An increasingly large number of people are defining the network procedurally in a data-dependant way (with loops and conditionals), allowing them to change dynamically as a function of the input data fed to them. It's really very much like a regular progam, except it's parameterized, automatically differentiated, and trainable/optimizable. Dynamic networks have become increasingly popular (particularly for NLP), thanks to deep learning frameworks that can handle them such as PyTorch and Chainer (note: our old deep learning framework Lush could handle a particular kind of dynamic nets called Graph Transformer Networks, back in 1994. It was needed for text recognition). People are now actively working on compilers for imperative differentiable programming languages. This is a very exciting avenue for the development of learning-based AI. Important note: this won't be sufficient to take us to "true" AI. Other concepts will be needed for that, such as what I used to call predictive learning and now decided to call Imputative Learning. More on this later....
早前教育局成立學校課程檢討專責小組（下稱「專責小組」），全面檢討中小學課程。依筆者之見，專責小組理應就推行多年的新高中學制作出全面檢視，從課程調整、科目組合、內容深度、考評方向等角度，作大刀闊斧的改革，以補救新學制的嚴重缺失。
選修科重要性大減
課程發展議會曾訂定「7個學習宗旨」，當中包括培育學生「具備廣闊的知識基礎」、「掌握終身學習所需的資訊科技和其他共通能力」、「建立健康的生活方式，積極參與體藝活動」等；為此，當年新高中學制也銳意設計「寬廣而均衡」的課程架構，期望學生在4個必修科目以外，修讀3個選修科目，並力求文理兼備。
奈何大學收生以中英數通4個核心科目成績「3322」作為最低入學門檻，地位舉足輕重，選修科重要性自必大減；而且新高中科目學習內容繁多，工作量非同小可，結果修讀3個選修科的學生，從第一屆的51%大跌至第八屆的30%【表1】；最終未有中途退修、在公開試應考3科的學生更只有17%，充分證明當初「4＋3」的課程架構宣告失敗。
由於中六應考兩科的學生高達七成，大部分同學未能同時修讀「物理、化學、生物」或「中史、歷史、中國文學」等舊制中大受歡迎的科目組合。事實上，這些科目在學習上有相輔相成的作用，對深化和融會所學的知識有莫大裨益；但就教育局最新發布2016年數據可見，同時修讀「物理、化學、生物」的中四學生僅餘2331人，只佔全體學生4.31%，令人大失所望。
至於另一個擴闊知識領域的措施，就是引入組合科學（把物理、化學、生物其中兩科綜合為一科）和數學選修單元。可惜前者因學習內容超載，修讀人數由第一屆的11.4%大幅下跌至第六屆的1.8%【表2】。
與此同時，額外修讀數學選修單元一和二的人，也由首屆的11.0%和11.9%下跌至第六屆的5.3%和8.4%，嚴重影響新一代的運算能力和科學素養。
面對課程內容過多、部分課程內容艱深、綜合學科設計失敗、校本評核工作量重等問題，當局在中期檢討已作了一些小修小補，雖令問題未有進一步惡化，但各種亂象仍是揮之不去。在考試導向下，現時的課後拔尖補底班、假日補課、高中於暑期提早開學、中六學年（只有6個月）安排兩次考試等，早已見怪不怪，叫莘莘學子身心俱疲，壓力沉重。
普及與精英教育作取捨
影響所及，學生被迫減少參與課外活動，其他學習經歷（OLE）的重要性每況愈下，與當局「建立健康的生活方式，積極參與體藝活動」的學習宗旨背道而馳。更甚者，不少機構進行的調查結果均顯示文憑試考生壓力居高不下，中學生輕生的悲劇時有所聞，一切都跟新高中課程設計有密切關係。
溯本追源，新高中學制以「一試定生死」的模式，取代以往的中學會考和高級程度考試，既是「普及教育」下全體考生必須面對的資歷考核，也是為大學收生服務的「選拔精英」工具。
時至今日，新高中學制和考試未能解決的關鍵問題，就是如何在兩者之間取得協調。
「普及教育」應修讀廣泛的學科，獲得基礎知識，但「精英教育」就要既深且精，為大學教育做好準備。因此，如何讓不同性向和能力的學子皆學有所成、如何建構寬廣而適切的課程、如何為莘莘學子減壓、如何在「普及」與「精英」教育中作取捨，都是專責小組不能迴避的難題。
黃家樑_教育評議會副主席
中國新「三座大山」有多嚴重？先談教育，上海的15歲青年和全世界比賽，年年第一，英國都要來取經，但總有家長迷戀美國，那就去吧！反正日後工作機會都在中國，海歸已是每年70%。
中國每年產生800萬大學生，比歐洲國家的人口都多，有一半是工程師，中國的鄉村子弟多念工程，相對而言，鄉村子弟迷戀手機的機會比較少，所以中國希望在農村，農家子弟形成工程師紅利，西方人既不知亦不重視。
中國在歷史上人才最終都出自農村，而不在城市，看看歷史上的領導班子便知了。另一個紅利是機械人紅利，中國製造業是全球最大，而使用機械人亦最多，不必怕機械人取代人類，現在已經發生了，中國製造早已AI化，不必等30年，這個紅利亦是西方始料不及的。
中國人向來是Issues Driven，有問題就努力解決，而不是等福利，中國既不要「美國病」，亦不要「希臘病」，取的是中庸之道。
中國住房要回歸住的功能，不是炒的功能，中國早是住房率90%的國家，西方只是60%，香港更是50%，雖然中國達到這個比率是經過公家房變私有房的過程，有40%是用低價購得，雖說有些老舊，但已是自少棲身之地，老人們不想拆遷了，商品房約39%，這都是佔既有利益，但2006年至2016年建了6000萬戶的保障房，保障了1.8億需要保障的住戶。
醫療無疑要看私家醫生，很多平民醫院要排大隊，看病的人確不少，13.5億人有醫保期望值不高，「先肯定再改進」是對的。
在美股的帶動下，環球股市繼續造好，恒指看似準備調整，但收市U盤時段嘜高騰訊（00700）兩蚊，恒指周五升78點，收報30814點。今年首周，全球股市平均升幅2%至3%，日經指數及國企指數升逾4%，表現最威水。周初較為落後的歐股，也藉歐羅回軟而發力追上。狂牛最怕遇見猛烈通脹，通脹未至，仍是瘋炒時。
美國全國失業率持續下滑，惟工資增長較預期慢，失業率跌至17年新低，工資增長近兩年只是橫行，令聯儲局只能慢慢加息。不過，全國數據的背後，有愈來愈多地區的失業率遠低過全國，工資加幅則遠快過全國。
美低失業率城市加薪快
據《華爾街日報》最近的調查報道，一些城市失業率已跌穿4%甚至3%，當地出現勞動力短缺問題，有工無人做，老闆要大幅調高薪金及提供各式福利吸引人才，所以不能說失業率已與工資增長無關，只是時辰未到。
該篇報道列舉了幾個城市的情況，當中包括明尼亞波尼斯市、丹佛市及聖荷西市等，失業率均已跌穿3%【圖1】，這些城市的周薪升幅約4%，為全國的一倍。從這些城市表現可見，若全國失業率持續下跌，美國打工仔的加薪速度應會加快，由工資推動的通脹遲早會來臨，金融市場是否低估了通脹呢？
歐羅區去年經濟增長亦較去年初分析師的預測快得多，歐央行預測今年經濟增長2.3%，跟去年的最新修訂2.4%差不多，通脹率去到2020年只是1.8%。然而，歐羅區的新增職位是2000年以來最勁，失業率由高峰期的12.7%降至8.8%，到年尾計數時，可能再來一年的低估，工資推動的通脹可能較預期來得猛，這些風險都不能抹殺。
內地劉伶今年大破費
全球經濟擴張，商品價格勁升，幾時落到消費層面呢？內地周五幾家啤酒廠都話加價，加幅介乎10%至20%之間，這是10年來首次全面加價，理由是原材料價格、工資及環保稅項增加。早前貴州茅台宣布加價18%，內地劉伶要捱貴酒了，睇怕其他非必需品也會陸續加價。必需品走向視乎國家政策，經濟好，物價怎會不升？
今年環球股市最大風險是大家齊齊低估了通脹的來臨，包括歐日央行和金融市場，當真的到來時，那就麻煩了。
台灣手機鏡頭生產商大立光學周五公布去年12月份的營收表現，按月跌13%，由於1月份屬傳統淡季，該公司預期營收會繼續下滑。消息公布後，本港兩大手機零件股舜宇光學（02382）及瑞聲科技（02018）午後自高位回落，收市時僅微跌。每年首季通常是手機零件行業的淡季，加上要去庫存，未來一兩個月公布的數字都不會靚仔，投資者還是先觀望一下，有大行睇淡，也有大行相信行業會於下半年復甦。去年內地手機銷售倒退，這些零件股業務增長快速，因為手機配置升級，例如鏡頭有前置後置，像素又提升，看好的大行認為這趨勢將會持續，消費升級會是主流。
手機零件業寒冬何時了
不過，蘋果價值千美元的iPhone X銷售反應一般，證明了升級不是必然，消費者更重視性價比。據研究機構IDC的數據，全球手機銷售增長愈來愈慢，由2013年的年增40%，放緩至去年只年增1.2%，換機時間亦延長了。未來的智能手機設計要有更革命性的突破，才能重現快速增長。
當然，看好前景的大行如美銀美林則有不同看法，該行認為內地換機周期是18個月，今年內地消費者將進入換機年，全年智能手機銷售料增長6%至9%【圖2】。若然這個預測準確，手機零件商便可鬆一口氣，不過也有可能是高估了。
據《福布斯》香港富豪排行榜，資深商舖投資者梁紹鴻自2013年起上榜，去年更以237億元攀升至第17位。梁先生的發達訣竅，便是自1997年金融風暴後，購入核心地段商舖作投資，2003年沙士後更是「一個月買一件」，多年來少有沽貨；期間香港經濟復甦、自由行和量化寬鬆，梁先生的家財亦水漲船高。
細看富豪榜上的名字，多是以10年計的努力投身某一行業，少有不斷在不同行業間跳來跳去的（兼營多業則有之），這不正是在說明，投資便是找出一個可靠載體，通過企業或資產價值的高速成長（最少跑贏通脹，在香港更要跑贏樓價），加上複利滾存，投資回報自然連年遞升。
按中原城市領先指數（CCL），去年樓價上升約15%，驟聽好像不多，尤其不少人對年均10%、15%回報不太感興趣，但這其實是低估了複息效應的威力。如沙士後2004年初指數約40點，去年約20點的上升，升幅便幾近一倍；金融海嘯後指數約60點，20點上升回報便是33%。時間是回報的好朋友，時間愈長，複利滾存的威力愈大。所以，投資其實很簡單，便是找一個厚「雪球」，然後靜待時間發揮威力（一條很長很斜的滑坡）。
硬件普及快速
未來5年，領導投資潮流定必仍是科網。網購、手遊、AI、蘋果手機概念股，現在人人琅琅上口，這次說說兩個較少人注意的科網硬件。
美國媒體報道，iPhone系列去年全球銷量2億多部，排名第一；三星S8銷量3300萬部，緊隨其後；排名第三的不是Apple Watch或近日熱賣的任天堂Switch，而是亞馬遜的智能盒子Echo，售出2400萬台，按年增長近5倍。
智能盒子是什麼？放在家中你可以叫它叫外賣、網購下單、關窗簾、定時熄火；更重要的是，有機會分享智能手機的上網入口地位（語音輸入取代鍵盤輸入）。
智能盒子普及並不讓人意外，只是沒料到來得那麼快。阿里巴巴去年也推出自家的天貓精靈，以對抗京東的Top智能音箱和小米的AI音箱，智能盒子未來將快速普及。
另一有望跑出的科網產品便是無人車。Alphabet旗下的無人車公司Waymo宣布，公路測試已超過400萬英里（一般司機要達此里數需時300年），且相比第一個百萬英里用了18個月，最後的百萬英里只用了6個月。美國加州政府計劃6月起開放無人車進入高速公路。無人車於一兩年內推出，一點也不讓人意外。
金融海嘯後，畢非德和基金公司打賭，說一個標普500指數基金可跑贏一籃子對沖基金，10年下來，指數基金年均回報7.1%，一籃子基金年均回報只2.2%。股神為何勝利？因為買指數是買經濟，享受整個經濟成長果實，較諸東炒西炒的投資者，回報自然不只高出一班。捉緊可靠而良好的已很足夠，好高騖遠，頻頻「換馬」，到老一場空。
頻「換馬」一場空
不過，股神也有失算時，若下注以科網股為主的納斯特指數（更佳的載體），從1600點升至現在的7000點，年均回報近14%，回報更高。
恒指裏並沒有多少科網公司，所以並不用競猜恒指會升至多少，專注最優質的股份便可以了（CCL從低位升了4倍，優質舖位的價錢便只升了4倍嗎？）。所以，定時買入一些科網企業或納指ETF，自製投資組合，大約已經很足夠。
hcl.hkej@gmail.com
(編者按：郝承林最新著作《致富新世代2──科網君臨天下》現已發售)
歡迎訂購：實體書、電子書
31 rgrieselhuber 5 hrs 1
http://blog.fogus.me/2018/01/02/the-best-things-and-stuff-of-2017/
Great things and people that I discovered, learned, read, met, etc. in 2017. No particular ordering is implied. Not everything is new.
also: see the lists from 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011 and 2010
Great blog posts read
Most viewed blog posts by me
I’ve been scaling back on blogging the past two years and have tried something different instead – Read-Eval-Print-λove. That said, there were a couple of high-traffic posts on my blog.
Pascal at Apple – a post where I explored some of the history of the Pascal programming language through Apple’s history. Some great authoritative commentary occurred. More exploration needed. Computer Archeology: The Intelligent Machines Journal – Issue 1 Dec. 78 – I sometimes read old computing journals and try to reason about them from my present perspective. In this post I explored the first issue of the journal that would eventually become InfoWorld. Favorite technical books discovered (and read)
I’ve intentionally reduced the number of technical books that I consume, but there are a few that I “found” in 2017 that are stellar.
The Implementation of Prolog by Patrice Boizumault – I took some time to explore Prolog implementations in the first half of the year and this book was indispensable. It’s a niche topic for sure, but if you’re into it then few books match this gem. Beneath Apple ProDOS – Continuing my computing archaeology efforts I found this amazing book of old Apple ProDOS hacks. The Architecture Machine: Toward a More Human Environment – For many of the early years of computing machines a main idea driving many in their efforts was the idea of using computers as mind amplification and augmentation. Negroponte’s book explore this notion of augmentation with and eye towards human/computer partnership. Clause and Effect – In my opinion this is the best introduction to Prolog that I’ve read so far. Show Stopper!: The Breakneck Race to Create Windows NT and the Next Generation at Microsoft – In many ways it’s the standard non-technical tech book with tales of overnight coding heroism, broken people, and broken families led by the now legendary (infamous?) Dave Cutler. Favorite non-technical books read
Finite and Infinite Games – A game that masquerades about games but that’s really about life. Fascinating read. Eichmann in Jerusalem – Another triumph by Arendt and a perfect companion to The Origins of Totalitarianism. An interesting read for these modern times. How Green Was My Valley – This is a classic that somehow flew below my radar my entire life. The book describes the trials and times of a humble rural valley intersecting with industrial sensibilities. Babel-17 – A nice sci-fi find though it’s one that I’ve put off reading for years. This plays in the same space as the recent film The Arrival, but does so along a slightly different vector. The Time Traveller’s Wife – A love story masquerading as a science fiction novel but one that tackles both with incredible feeling and thoughtfulness. The Lathe of Heaven – My favorite sci-fi discovery of the year about a man whose dreams shape reality and those who would take advantage of such power. Riveting! Number of books published
0
Number of books written
1.05 – Wrote a pamphlet of card games that I sent out to friends and family and started on the 3rd edition of The Joy of Clojure
Favorite musicians discovered
Interesting tabletop games discovered
Sidereal Confluence : Trading and Negotiation in the Elysian Quadrant – This is the best board game release of the year in 2017, in my opinion. Combines trading and negotiation with resource conversion (think term-rewriting) to make a truly compelling 90-minute experience. Bug – A new abstract strategy game by one of m favorite designers Nick Bentley about an ecosystem of polyominoes eating each other. FUSE – I’m not a huge fan of dice game, but FUSE adds a realtime element to the game to simulation bomb defusing. Great fun for players of all ages and gaming experience. Optimates et Populares – The boutique publisher Hollandspiele is doing a lot of good things these days, but their best game in my opinion is this game of political intrigue in the waning days of the Roman Empire. The game is very tight and the loser is often the person who makes the first mistake. Favorite science fiction TV series
Black Mirror
Favorite horror films discovered
The Babadook The VVitch Train to Busan Favorite programming languages (or related) I hacked on/with
Clojure, Prolog, Rust
Programming languages used for work-related projects
Clojure, ClojureScript, Java, Datalog
Programming languages (and related) that I hope to explore more deeply
Rust – OSDev in Rust. Need I say more? Pony – A very interesting language inspired by Erlang with capabilities built in to boot. Nim – A “systems” programming language that looks superficially like Python but with some nice static guarantees, multiple compilation targets, and relatively clean FFI. Favorite papers discovered (and read)
My paper reading has taken a big hit lately thanks to various reasons but here are a few that I enjoyed.
Inventing the LISA user interface by Perkins, Ludolph, and Keller (WWW) – I’m perpetually interested in retrocomputing topics, especially those with lessons that extend into modern system design considerations. Mastering Chess and Shogi by Self-Play with a General Reinforcement Learning Algorithm by The DeepMind team (PDF) – How a neural network taught itself to become the best Chess, Shogi, and Go players of all time. LINCOS: Design of a Language for Cosmic Intercourse by Freudenthal (PDF) – How can designing a language to communicate with aliens help us to design computing systems? Some interesting ideas around the discovery and presentation of new ideas. Programming a Problem-Oriented Language by Charles Moore (PDF) – Chuck Moore’s thesis on Forth and its design and core philosophy. Still haven’t read…
Snow Crash, A Fire upon the Deep, Norwegian Wood, The Contortionists Handbook and a boat-load of scifi
Favorite technical conference attended
Strange Loop 2017 (St. Louis)
Favorite code read
A blockchain in 200 lines of code – I love fruit-fly code and this one really helped me to understand the fundamental ideas behind how blockchains work. Minoca OS – I’ve returned to exploring operating systems development and found this code base very lucid for study. ClojErl – A nice Clojure to Erlang compiler in the early stages. Has helped my understanding of Erlang. Gopher OS – An effort to write an OS in Go… Go bare bones – …and the base ideas behind writing Go closer to the metal. Life-changing technology “discovered”
The Instapaper App’s text-to-speech capability – I haven’t read a blog post in a year, but instead have let my Instapaper app read them to me. I now listen to posts and such while jogging and walking. It’s not very good for code-heavy posts however. State of plans from 2017
Dive back into Prolog – Refamiliarized myself with the language. Restore my personal PLZoo – Code restored and cleaned. Read 100 books – Done (Finally) Start a hardware project. – Obtained materials for a Morse Code keyboard but did not start yet. Write six blog posts – Total fail, but did explore Twitter threads as a medium with mixed results. Attend one tech conference – I attended two: Strange Loop and Clojure/Conj. Two installments of Read-Eval-Print-λove in 2017 – only one, but I am proud of it. Listen more – An ongoing effort.
Plans for 2018
Write another little book of games to send to friends and family.
Give one talk. Explore mentorship more seriously. Write 6+ blog posts. Create a hobby programming language. Read 100 books, including Don Quixote Play more 18XX games. Rethink and reorganize my website. Onward to 2018!
:F
1月4日，周四。道指剛升破二萬時，有個show代表好多錯過牛市的人問畢非德，現在入市是否太遲？股神答自己唔知，相信其他人亦沒有答案，但投資股市乃長遠贏面高的遊戲，因無法知道何時入市最好所以放棄，那就大錯特錯。
畢翁接着重複其千年advice，分段買，分散投放一批優質股，把入市時間誤差與買錯股的風險降低，最重要當然是持之以恒（按股神time frame，「恒」嘅意思係至少十年八載，甚至一生）。
一年過去，道指二萬五都嚟緊頭，唔聽話的投資者如果現在遇到畢非德，恐怕又要問相同問題，股神又會給出一樣的答案。
長遠贏面高
想具體感受一下何謂「投資股市乃長遠贏面高的遊戲」，建議你做一個簡單練習，用手抄一抄近40年道指年終收市。你會發現，指數大部分時間都好似個電錶，數字一直往上跳，有時候快，有時候慢，開倒車的時候有，惟發生次數有限。
以一年為期，未計股息，四個10年中，道指按年下跌比率約三成半，如果將時限拉長到10年（1967年底至1977年底，1968年底至1978年底，如此類推），期內就只有五次要輸錢，而且虧損百分比最多不超過2%。如果肯睇20年，百分百賺錢，所以股神話你永遠無法預知明天股市如何，but you do know what it's going to do over 10 or 20 years.（換作港股，做相同統計，結果差不多。）
美股牛市維持多年，嘆走寶的人多，享受牛市的人少。跟一個朋友討論這個現象，友人指自己相對好彩，非因特別英明神武，而是多年前MPF決定做得對。透過其MPF戶口持續買入美股基金，基本上穩步攀升，真正發揮到積累財富效用。相對此君期間做過的其他交易，回報雖然並非最好，但絕對屬於中上。
朋友冇講錯，MPF被人彈的地方多得很，諸如收費貴、回報低，但只要你選擇的投資對象還可以，強積金「月月逼供」的特性，就能成為你的投資助力。MPF戶口不會等pullback，只知按指令定時定候捧場，月月如是一直買入，操作上完全符合股神建議。一年結束，兩年過去，日子有功，投資威力就能發揮出來。
愈「廢」愈管用
好似好諷刺，日日夜夜研究東研究西，想盡辦法跑贏大市，結果最簡單最廢柴的做法勝過不少其他招式。效果好，持續買入外，從來冇因為累積升幅大，或者受市場短期負面消息影響而沽出，亦非常重要。
如果閣下投資組合現金依然佔大部分，又經常為入市時機而苦惱，老畢勸你都係聽股神話，用一個簡單方法開始，美股也好，港股也好，新興市場都OK，只要長遠有前景。千方百計要尋找完美時刻，未必適合每個人。理論上，基金經理財金情商與智商應該高人一等，事實上，專業人士亦多失敗收場。
想想亦不意外，無論利用基礎分析或者睇圖，老畢發覺，time the market成效都頗為參差。採用太過敏感的技術訊號，時常碰到誤鳴情況。睇基本因素，亦常因市場邏輯善變或者有新因素突然浮現，經常影響成功率。
回到股神忠告，如果一味要等最好時機，錯過機會代價太高。股市固然不等人，現金亦會愈來愈失去購買力。從一個麵包到一層樓，經過長年累月，價格升幅之厲害，足見通脹對長揸現金者帶來的財富蠶食如何慘烈。
建立基本盤位
新一年又開始，老畢認為如果一定要同個市鬥，至少也應劃出部分資金，乖乖地做個儍仔，聽股神話，用最老土方法建立一個基本盤位。市升，有份高興；市跌，可以利用餘下資金買平貨。既能stay invested，亦能過過active management癮。