Infoman

Member since 2017-07-15T03:50:57Z. Last seen 2025-01-12T00:12:02Z.

2732 blog posts. 128 comments.

Followers: 0 Following: 2

Posts by Infoman

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  Infoman

  The End Is Near for Mobile Apps

  13 miguelrochefort 2 hrs 7

  https://medium.com/s/story/mobile-apps-will-disappear-soon-4b4e54f46eb8

  news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18380293

  In the next three to seven years, I expect most mobile apps to disappear. With them, we’ll witness the loss of billions in venture capital that we’ve poured into the mobile startup sector. It will all be burned to ashes, with nothing left but stray lines of code.

  The vision was that, one day, every legal entity would have its own mobile app. The logic came to me six years ago. At the time, I was thinking about investing in a startup that created a mobile app to create apps for users without needing them to code (the concept is similar to website builders like Wix except for a native mobile app). You would simply enter some basic information and the app would generate an app for you on its cloud server. You could then download and install this app on your phone and ask others to do the same by sharing a link or QR code. The idea was to make it easy for individuals and small businesses to create their own personal apps for social or marketing purposes.

  The vision was that, one day, every legal entity (human beings and companies) would have its own mobile app. These apps would be dotted all over the internet, like physical properties on a map. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen. I doubt it ever will for a few straightforward reasons that are already affecting app usage.

  If you don’t believe me, count the number of apps you have on your phone. Chances are, if you take away the manufacturer’s pre-installed apps that you can’t delete, you have, at most, 100 apps. Those you use frequently probably number less than 30. Too many apps slow down your phone. They take up memory space, run background processes, and constantly check for push notifications even when not in use.

  In any case, would you really install a few hundred of your friends’ apps or the apps of all your favorite restaurants, grocers, and laundromats?

  When smartphones first appeared, major corporations rushed to make apps. Then they realized it was a real headache to maintain them. Every time you update information on your website or promote a product, you have to do the same on your app. And every time a handset manufacturer updates its operating system, you have to debug your app to make sure it keeps working — plus there are the pains of managing bugs on different brands, models, and screen sizes. If you’ve ever been involved in mobile app development, you know what I’m talking about.

  The truth is, unless you are a major retailer or content publisher that needs to sell or deliver to customers frequently, all you really need is a mobile-friendly website. If information is all people want, they’re going to Google it in a browser.

  Would you install so much different software on your laptop or PC? Given the first two points, this third is a logical evolution and is already happening in some parts of the world. It’s what the industry calls “building an ecosystem.” The strategy involves binding users’ daily behaviors and spending into their mobile apps.

  A good example is how restaurants and cafes are integrating into food delivery apps instead of maintaining their own online order and delivery systems. In turn, these food delivery apps are consolidating with mobile wallet or ride-share apps to provide synergy and convenience to users. Consider Go-Jek, the biggest motorcycle ride-share app in Indonesia. To many people, it’s an all-in-one mobile wallet, ride-hailing, food delivery, and lifestyle services app.

  Go-Jek took its inspiration from China’s WeChat, the biggest instant messaging app in that country, which has integrated just about every lifestyle service you can think of into their mobile wallet section. Every serious Chinese business has a WeChat official account, where users can access both static information as well as interactive services and transactions. WeChat has also introduced a “mini-program” section, an API-based ecosystem that basically allows third-party developers to create “child apps” within the main WeChat app so users never have to leave WeChat itself. Third-party developers’ apps connect seamlessly to the payment and social functions of a user’s existing WeChat account.

  WeChat mobile wallet, official accounts and mini-programs While WeChat approached integration from the beginning as an instant messaging app, other players in China are attempting to compete from other directions — Alipay from its base in e-commerce and Baidu from search engines. The Western world is lagging in this game of becoming a dominant app. It remains to be seen who will become the giant “app of apps” in other countries.

  Any industry consolidates as it matures. This is especially true in the world of native apps, where economies of scale, large user bases, frequent traffic, and so on are required for monetization. No matter how wonderful a new app idea may be, it costs more and more in advertising and promotion before it reaches critical mass to effectively monetize, much less break even.

  Apps were called “applications” in the first place because that’s what Apple called locally installed software in their computers to differentiate their system from Windows (which called them programs). Would you install as many different pieces of software on your laptop or PC as you do on your phone?

  As far as installing anything on a hard drive goes, think about the trend toward cloud-based services and the software as a service (SaaS) models that are delivered over browsers instead of installing software.

  Maintaining a mobile app requires time, effort, and money, especially when operating systems like iOS and Android update frequently. Have you noticed that every time you update the software on your phone, something goes wrong in one of your apps? Native apps are no longer as necessary as they once were. Consolidation is coming, and the era of “there’s an app for that” is coming to a close.

  Since this story was published, it has been picked up on Flipboard, Twitter and LinkedIn, spawning new discussions on other platforms. Here’s an interesting one from LinkedIn. I welcome all to join in the discourse in the name of crowdsourced wisdom!

  2018/11/05
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  Infoman

  Google's interview system: it's not about solving the problem

  144 mariedm 23 hrs 151

  https://threader.app/thread/1058433116002381824

  news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18374938

  Google's interview system is not great but there are various reasons why it feels less than it is. Most candidates don't know what the goal of our interviews are. First rule, it is not about finding an optimal solution or any solution at all.

  You are interviewed for multiple skills simultaneously. Cognitive skills, communication, leadership are a few to name. If the point is not finding a solution, then what is it? Let me explain.

  Your interviewers try to understand what it feels like to work with you on a daily basis. An interview question is just a tool in achieving that, it is not there to specifically measure your skills on a topic but a tool to understand the depth of your thinking.

  Before the interview starts, ask them what they want to get out of this interview. Good interviewers should already have a plan and a set of expectations. Ask them what you should do. Don't start coding yet. Ask them you should produce. Discussion, diagrams, pseudo code, code?

  Then, start cracking the question. List whatever questions you think it is important to solve this question, ask your edge cases. Get to a point where you are discussing about pros/cons of the solutions. These steps are critical. Don't just start coding. Have a consensus first.

  Your interviewer will try to give you hints. Don't ignore them because you are too confident about your solution. This is not a smartness contest. Also, don't panic if a hint doesn't make sense. Ask what interview's perspective is that they gave that hint.

  Talk, talk, talk as you are doing your thing. Talk about even the most obvious steps. Ask about testing, talk about testing cases if testing discussion is expected. Discuss what you'd fix to iterate your solution if you realized you are missing something.

  Don't get freaked out if the interviewer jumps to a different question. Sometimes, they think they got enough of what they have been looking for from a question and will do something else. Don't try to overdo a solution if interviewer think it is good enough.

  If you are not highly senior, you won't get asked system design or open ended questions about industry best practices. This style of interviews are also about being able to discuss pros/cons.

  Don't freak out just because your interviewer is taking too many notes. They need to provide evidence to the hiring committee and they want to remember as many signals as possible. Make sure you are clearly communicating your new ideas if you are iterating on the initial ones.

  At any interview regardless it is at Google or not, don't see your interviewer as someone who has the full authority but some who you are already working with. Try to have a feel how productive it will feel in real life. Remember, interviews shouldn't be a monologue.

  You can follow JBD. ____

  Tip: mention @threader_app on a Twitter thread with the keyword “compile” to get a link to it.

  Enjoy Threader? Tell @jack.

  Download Threader on iOS.

  2018/11/05
• 
  

  Infoman

  What is the revenue generation model for DuckDuckGo?

  67 lettergram 2 hrs 23

  https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-revenue-generation-model-for-DuckDuckGo/answer/Gabriel-Weinberg?share=1

  news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18320413

  DuckDuckGo has been a profitable company since 2014 without storing or sharing any personal information on people using our search engine. As we like to say, what you search on DuckDuckGo is private, even from us! We’re proud to have a business model for a web-based business that’s profitable without making your personal information the product. I’m happy to tell you all about how we make it work (and how other companies can, too).

  Though first, if you’re not familiar with DuckDuckGo, we are an Internet privacy company that empowers you to seamlessly take control of your personal information online, without any tradeoffs. We operate a search engine alternative to Google at http://duckduckgo.com, and offer additional apps and extensions to protect you from Google, Facebook and other trackers, no matter where you go on the Internet.

  The Big Myth

  It’s actually a big myth that search engines need to track your personal search history to make money or deliver quality search results. Almost all of the money search engines make (including Google) is based on the keywords you type in, without knowing anything about you, including your search history or the seemingly endless amounts of additional data points they have collected about registered and non-registered users alike.

  In fact, search advertisers buy search ads by bidding on keywords, not people. It makes intuitive sense, too. If you search for ‘car’, you are more likely to respond to a car ad than something you searched for last week.

  This keyword-based advertising is our primary business model. When you search on DuckDuckGo, we can show you an ad based on the keywords you type in. That’s it. And it works. Our privacy policy, in a nutshell, is to not collect or share any personal information at all. Every time you search on DuckDuckGo it is as if you were there for the first time – anonymous.

  For example, if you type in ‘dishwasher’ you will get a dishwasher ad.

  Google also makes most of their money via this same type of keyword-based advertising that doesn’t require any search-history tracking.

  So why do they track it all then? Because Google is not really a search company; they are an advertising company. On Google, your searches are tracked, mined, and packaged up into a data profile for advertisers to follow you around the Internet through intrusive and annoying ever-present banner ads, using Google’s massive ad networks, embedded across millions of sites and apps.

  This is why if you search for something on Google, you may start seeing ads for it everywhere. Using the internet doesn’t have to feel like you’re being watched, listened to, and monitored.

  Google, Facebook, and The Creepy Line

  Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO and Chairman, famously said “Google’s policy on a lot of these things is to get right up to the creepy line, but not cross it.” But for most people, that line was crossed by Google, Facebook, and others long ago.

  Alarmingly, Google now deploys hidden trackers on 76% of websites across the web to monitor your behavior and Facebook has hidden trackers on about 25% of websites, according to the Princeton Web Transparency & Accountability Project. It is likely that Google and/or Facebook are watching you on most sites you visit, in addition to tracking you when using their products.

  As a result, these two companies have amassed huge data profiles on individuals, which can include interests, past purchases, search, browsing and location history, and much more. This personal data is stored indefinitely and used for invasive targeted advertising that can follow you around the Internet.

  This advertising system is designed to enable hyper-targeting, which has many unintended consequences that have dominated the headlines in recent years, such as the ability for bad actors to use the system to influence elections, to exclude groups in a way that facilitates discrimination, and to expose your personal data to companies you’ve never even heard of.

  The operative question is, though, is all of this tracking necessary to make substantial profits? Is this the only way to run a profitable digital consumer focused service company? Not in my opinion. The fact is, these companies would still be wildly profitable if, for example, they dropped all of these hidden trackers across the web and limited the amount of data they keep to only what is most necessary.

  Yes, this additional tracking probably helps them compete with each other and adds some incremental revenue, but I believe the vast majority of their revenue would still exist if the tracking dial was turned way down, and they backed far away from the creepy line.

  The reason is simple: Google and Facebook are the undisputed champions of audience and reach across the internet, something advertisers will always pay for. Their business models don’t need to be this invasive.

  It is a choice to squeeze every last ounce of profit at the expense of privacy, democracy and society. A choice they don’t have to make. Without all this tracking, I’m confident they would still be among the most profitable companies in the world, and we’d all be better off.

  Anonymous Affiliates

  As mentioned, DuckDuckGo is profitable based mostly on keyword-based search ads, though we have always been on the search for other ways to anonymously make money so that we can reduce the dependence on advertising. The only other way we’ve found so far, which currently accounts for a much smaller portion of our revenue, is non-tracking affiliate partnerships with Amazon and eBay.

  When you visit those sites through DuckDuckGo, including when using !bangs, and subsequently make a purchase, we receive a small commission. This mechanism operates anonymously and there is no personally identifiable information exchanged between us and Amazon or eBay. These partnerships also don't affect the ranking of search results. The reason we can do this in an anonymous way with Amazon and eBay, though not with other retailers, is because Amazon and eBay run their own affiliate networks.

  What Other Companies Can Do

  At the beginning of this answer, I noted that other companies using an advertising business model could follow a similar path to DuckDuckGo. Here are a few actionable things companies can do to remain profitable without tracking the maximum amount of information possible on consumers:

  Favor interest-based advertising instead of hyper-targeted advertising. For us, that is basing ads just on the keywords people type in. For others, that could mean basing ads on the content on the page and not on the individual viewing the page. Sell advertising directly based on such interests, avoiding going through the hyper-targeted advertising systems of Google and Facebook. Consider using an anonymous affiliate system like DuckDuckGo does as described above. This can help you get away from as much advertising on your pages. Our vision is to set a new standard of trust online. The Internet shouldn't feel so creepy and getting the privacy you deserve online should be as simple as closing the blinds.

  2018/10/28
• 
  

  Infoman

  外國月亮是否特別圓？達利奧（Ray Dalio）認為世上所有的周期都是信貸周期，現在市況就似完全跟着他新書中的劇本走。美國最厲害的武器不是軍火，也不是跨國企業，而是聯儲局。

  【表1】是聯儲局資產負債表和美國貨幣供應（M2）。金融海嘯前，聯儲局十分淡定，每年增表2%至3%，經濟便十分繁榮。

  直到金融海嘯出現，聯儲局便行霹靂手段，1年增加資產負債規模超過1倍，可惜銀行不買賬，M2只增加10%。聯儲局在2010年、2011年、2013年及2014年再度擴表，M2和經濟終於有反應，回到中單位數增長。到了2015年之後的3年，聯儲局便不再擴表，靜待資金流動加速，結果經濟增長真的加速。

  資產價格要看鮑威爾心情

  聯儲局看到經濟終於重回正軌，於是今年開始縮表。科網股是過去10年美股牛市的領頭羊，但現在也開始支持不住。

  貨幣真的是決定一切資產價格的關鍵因素。現在聯儲局資產負債表規模約4.2萬億（美元．下同），若未來每月縮表500億元，便等於每月減少貨幣1%。唯一的緩解方法，是貨幣快速流動，但投資市場表現欠佳，貨幣流動大概不容易加速。

  另一個值得注意的，是人民銀行的資產負債表規模。人民幣以美元作錨，美元多發，人民幣也多發。但人行有一個厲害處，那便是銀行都聽話。不但人行的資產負債表擴大，M2也同步擴大【表2】。2015年起聯儲局不再擴表，人民銀行也部署縮表。

  近日美股和香港物業價格的調整，說明中美央行同步收水下，資產價格不容易有好表現。什麼時候才會見底回升？

  人行跟隨聯儲局（因為美元是國際貨幣嘛），一切要看鮑威爾的心情。鮑威爾到底在想什麼？

  達里奧認為，現在世界的危機，在於貨幣周期走到尾聲，而社會又因貧富懸殊（頂部10%人的財富，堪比底部的60%）、新移民等因素而不穩定。他認為，緩解方法，就是聯儲局政策以60%低下階層為對象。

  既然QE有助有錢人，那麼鮑威爾便可能會想再QT一下，拉近窮富懸殊。社會問題不是沒有飽飯吃，而是買不起樓，資產價格太高。

  美國重行QE機會極小

  另外一個可能左右鮑威爾想法的是美股表現。現在美股已從高位回落10%，如繼續以這速度回落，聯儲局可能很快就受不了。人們可以接受資產價格調整，但沒有人能接受資產價格崩塌。聯儲局可能明年中便會掉轉減息，甚至停止QT。

  下一周期買什麼好？只有企業才會創造價值。現在美國科技股下跌，不是公司本身出了問題，而是市場流動性在收緊。科網依舊最具創新能力。

  樓宇本身不會創造價值，只會因銀紙增加而升值（又或者人流改變而被賦予價值）。美國經濟並沒有如10年前般水深火熱（當年是整個金融體系差點崩潰），重行QE機會極小。下一牛市最快明年首季開始（股市快過實體經濟3到6個月）。

  hcl.hkej@gmail.com

  (編者按：郝承林著作《致富新世代2──科網君臨天下》現已發售)

  歡迎訂購：實體書、電子書

  2018/10/26
• 
  

  Infoman

  OliverJones 9 hours ago [-]

  My spouse is a human lawyer. She's working now for a software company; she did her part taking it public a few years ago. She knows our trade pretty well. The difference between a lawyer on the one hand, and a "jailhouse lawyer" (an engineer who does legalish work) on the other, are these: The lawyer knows how to get things done to support the business. It's rare for a real in-house lawyer to tell the business, "we can't do that." More often, it's "here's how we do that." The lawyer knows how to write a form contract (sales, lease, nondisclosure, etc) so other lawyers will read it and say "ok, that's fair" and sign it. The lawyer knows how to read an incoming form contract to see if it's fair. The lawyer has real relationships with her counterparts at customer and vendor companies. When a vendor tries to change terms, she calls her counterpart and asks, "what's this about? My business has problems with this. How can we get to yes?" The lawyer knows that if a dispute gets to a judge, the remedy will be money. With very few exceptions there's no way for a judge to repair a business deal that's gone sideways. So the lawyer says, "anything but court." At some level, the law is like computer code. But the computer code has been around for many centuries and it has been patched over and over and over again as needed to solve real-world problems: in the US and English system that's called "case law.". There's an adage that "hard cases make bad case law." Lawyers know the ins and outs of this stuff. In my experience as an entrepreneur, when I've played lawyer I've generally overdone things to my detriment. The US is definitely litigation-happy. That makes things tough.

  2018/10/23
• 
  

  Infoman

  We Are All Lawyers Now – The Rise of the Legalish

  124 artificiallawya 15 hrs 149

  https://www.artificiallawyer.com/2018/10/23/we-are-all-lawyers-now-the-rise-of-the-legalish/

  news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18281504

  By Max Cole, Co-Founder of legal workflow automation pioneer, Autto.

  Are we right in thinking that the rapidly growing legal tech sector belongs in law firms and in-house legal departments staffed by lawyers? Or are we missing the point?

  We seem to be defining our customers by who they are, rather than by what they do.

  This was my conclusion after attending a recent legal tech get together where one of the themes seemed to be how hard it is to get a conservative legal community to adopt new technology. We have all had this conversation.

  This experience got me thinking: ‘Aren’t we all in the legal field to some extent?’

  Even if we don’t work as lawyers, we all deal with legal documents and processes. Outside of work we complete voter declarations, vehicle paperwork, and planning applications.

  Running a startup, regulations and legal requirements are everywhere: employment contracts, pensions, data privacy, insurance, health and safety, and so on.

  We think nothing of this, as the law touches most of us frequently as part of business life. We are all lawyers now, you might say.

  So, where is the majority of legal work to be found?

  The answer is probably not in the offices of the one hundred and forty-two thousand solicitors registered in the UK. It’s not in the big law firms that dominate our view of the legal industry. It’s elsewhere, in the industries and services that have one shared element: that the nature of their business has a constant legal underpinning.

  These are the regulated industries like finance, pensions, insurance, or those with heavy contract management demands. These are industries whose work requires constant contact with the law even if the work doesn’t involve legal advice and is not done by lawyers.

  It’s work that we at Autto have come to call legalish. It has become key to the way we look at the market for legal technology.

  The Importance of The Legalish

  This insight has produced obvious benefits. First and most obviously the addressable market is much bigger if it includes businesses doing legalish work – by our reckoning about three to four times larger.

  Second, we have found that those who are responsible for managing legalish work are in general much more open to tech adoption, and this is the case whether or not they are lawyers themselves by training. In general they are less conservative as customers and more focused on efficiency as a virtue in itself. They see the benefits more readily. I stress the generalization here – we are coming across more and more innovators within the traditional law firm model.

  One of the benefits of automation – our field – is that it helps ensure precision and consistency. This is one reason why it naturally suits legalish work where those doing the work may have little or no legal training.

  ‘We are all lawyers now,’ you might say. Nevertheless, the crossover between the needs of legalish and what we perceive as the legal field is remarkable. If there was any doubt about this then it’s worth considering that the biggest companies doing legalish work tend to have the largest in-house legal teams to support their operations.

  Almost everyone I talk to about my lawtech business assumes that we are selling to traditional law firms. And this is where we started, in fact.

  But the understanding that legal is: (a) everywhere, and (b) not done by lawyers, has given us a new perspective. It shapes our marketing efforts and our product design.

  So, I encourage the lawtech community to embrace the concept of the legalish – or whatever you choose to call it: a different way of thinking that includes a far wider range of industries, with new opportunities for both startups and users.

  —

  P.S. for anyone wondering who Autto are and what they do, please check out this short video below.

  2018/10/23
• 
  

  Infoman

  As an electrical engineer with 15+ years in global enterprise software sales, a track record of 100MIO$+ sales in the past ten years and 2 failed software startups as an experience i can share following:

  • A company only has excistence with paying customers.
  • The global economy excists because of supply and DEMAND. So start preaching the benefits of your products or services, because there is a very high likelyhood there is potential client in the 70 Trillion dollar economy.
  • Sales has evolved to being the trusted advisor and filling the blind spots for your clients with facts, value and business cases.
  • Don't sell a drill, sell the hole. Clients are not looking for the specs of the drill, but the size of a hole.
  • Before you start building your MVP, sell the value proposition. If you are not able to sell and validate your value proposition, you will struggle selling your MVP.
  • Selling can't always be expressed in metrics. It's like sex. You have to do it, to get better in it. So stop talking about how to do it, just do it...
  • You think you can't do sales? Have you ever applied for a job, sold yourself to your current girlfriend, husband or wife, challenge a friend with fact or a value creation discussion? You have done sales...
  • The conversion rate of off-line sales is higher then on-line sales (for B2B complex sales cycles). So start engaging with your clients face 2 face.
  • There is an absolute relation between your activities and your (revenue) results. P.s. If you are in 1MIO$+(global) B2B (SaaS) enterprise software sales: Complex sales for global matrix organisations with multi-level stakeholders can't be achieved trough reading a book.

  2018/10/23
• 
  

  Infoman

  Founders need to get radically better at sales

  76 stanleyhtml 7 hrs 18

  https://buzzways.at/collection/745/

  news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18283667

  For technical founders it is irrationally, obscenely hard to reverse years of programming (ba dum bum) that sales is a value-destroying activity. Sales is CLEARLY a value-creating activity, contingent on you have a value-creating product. The world will not drop what they are doing to adopt your work. This is particularly true in B2B, where simply building a better mousetrap won't overcome the activation energy required to get people with additional non-mice problems to prioritize changing mousetraps today. This is very non-obvious for founders because founders are not often people who want to be sold to. We often come from a background where trying out tools is a bit of a fun hobby. We like looking at all the options, making charts, and ripping out partially complete tests. "This week I unsuccessfully trialed four software options for automating that thing that has been killing us. Our actual production process remains the same as last week. Don't worry; this was a great use of time." is not a thing you want to write in a progress report to manager. The process of sales pushes the burden for understanding the market and distilling it from the customer to the sales person. That is a very valuable thing; it is why almost all businesses buy almost all of their big-ticket purchases (including e.g. employees) from sales. (A candidate is absolutely doing a sales job when attempting to get hired by a company. This is one of the things that both sides of that market are frequently in denial about, but I digress.) Simply getting oneself to be comfortable with sales (or at least present as being comfortable for a phone call or two) unlocks a crazy amount of success for founders, because founders have a few advantages over every other sales rep. One is that they present as being almost irrationally obsessed with the market. Founders tend to live and breath the product for a few years, and it often shows, mostly in positive ways. Unlike most sales reps, founders can credibly promise tight feedback loops for product.

  Stealing a line from @asmartbear which has paid for at least a year or two of my kids' education: "If you go with BigCo, you can call them at 3 AM. Someone will listen to you politely, explain they have no solution, and open a ticket. If you call at 3 PM, same answer."

  "You can't get a useless answer from me at 3 AM in the morning. But when I'm up, your business really is important to me. I am the engineering team. I will push fixes so fast you will be amazed. I will get this right because it actually matters to my business that I do." Founders have to sell. Many, many technical founders of my acquaintance want to offload this to someone ASAP. I've never seen this work: you need to have a deep understanding of your market and customers to arm that first non-founder salesperson. It is gained by doing.

  (And even if you don't do sales day-to-day anymore, you still have to sell candidates, investors, and partners on the desirability of using your company. Though most B2B SaaS CEOs that I know still very much have an account in their CRM and talk to "opportunities" frequently.) The transition from founder-driven sales to founder-assisted sales generally starts with hiring a "maverick" sort of salesperson; someone who is comfortable extracting what you know about the market, iterating rapidly on scripts, and doing "things that don't scale" to win. This may often be a necessary step, but it generally doesn't last for growing companies, partly because there is a crushing market undersupply of very effective mavericks. These folks are capable of writing their own ticket and then, by construction, getting folks to buy it.

  So eventually one tends to hire a VP of Sales who has done this before. They'll immediately start hiring reps under them, and start systematizing what you've learned about sales into scripts and playbooks. You'll see this maturity model start to creep into all parts of the funnel, too, which will probably actually be written down for the first time somewhere around this stage. Sophisticated, mature processes for marketing to pass leads over to sales for qualification.

  Sophisticated, maturing processes for sales to actually physically close deals. ("What, you mean we don't just edit a few things in Word and then ask them to print, sign, scan, and send back?") Defined, scheduled startup calls, onboarding, and handover to AMs / CS aftewards. (Sales, like many professions, benefits from specialization of labor. One that happens early is splitting the team into "account executives" (AEs) focused on getting new accounts and "account managers" (AMs), focused on keeping existing customers happy and expansion revenue. (Some companies even split their AM teams into dedicated subteams for doing true expansion, for cross-selling products, for winning renewals, and for the generic "I want the direct contact information for someone at your company because our business must be important enough" job) If you're at all interested in these topics, the people to read a heck out of are Steli and @jasonlk (who writes https://t.co/7FpEMvXdLZ ). Steli is so effective at sales he has closed deals he wasn't even a party to. My favorite anecdote about this:

  At a previous company I had invited myself out to lunch with a software CEO, with intent to get them to sign up, but was not really sure where we were at end of lunch."Hey apropos of nothing: do you know Steli?""Oh yeah he's great." "He is. Steli wouldn't let me leave lunch...

  ... until you explicitly tell me you're going to use our product.""He wouldn't, would he.""He wouldn't.""OK then; we will." "Great! Email me and we'll figure out logistics."

  That is called "asking for the sale" and, while that is a very unconventional way to ask for the sale, a ridiculous portion of all energy expended in the art of sales is to get conversations to the point where someone has to actually say yes or no. Relatedly: in the highly likely event that you get an answer which is not a yes or no, effective salespeople follow up until the sun goes nova waiting for either a yes or no. Travis NorthcuttTravis Northcutt: I am stealing this and putting it on my sales page Gordon CampbellGordon Campbell: read this thread mate, its a cracker! Catherine 🍀 Redhead ExtraordinaireCatherine 🍀 Redhead Extraordinaire: I just looked at a startup website today where they aren't asking for the sale in some way on every single page. Amy Hoy ✨Amy Hoy ✨: i covered the “how to think this way before creating the product” angle in my microconf talk that you contributed to 😎 https://t.co/LJtDmz0dGC K OBrienK OBrien: To sum it up: Founders need to sell Gary BGary B: unroll this please Rob MayoffRob Mayoff: Dear Thread Reader App,Kindly unroll this thread for me at your earliest convenience.Very Truly Yours, Rob

  Dave PaolaDave Paola: this is awesome! Confused by the "AMA" title instead of "how to price a product, sell it to customers, and build a sales team" Thanks for putting this together!

  Jeff AtwoodJeff Atwood: I have to say the line “Mother effer, you got me to open the email” triggers all my worst stereotypes of salespeople. Is that kind of aggressive language necessary so near the start of the article? — Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) October 18, 2018 Founders have to sell.

  Many, many technical founders of my acquaintance want to offload this to someone ASAP. I've never seen this work: you need to have a deep understanding of your market and customers to arm that first non-founder salesperson. It is gained by doing.

  — Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) October 18, 2018 (And even if you don't do sales day-to-day anymore, you still have to sell candidates, investors, and partners on the desirability of using your company. Though most B2B SaaS CEOs that I know still very much have an account in their CRM and talk to "opportunities" frequently.)

  — Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) October 18, 2018 What do Swift generics and recursive data types have to do with algebra? \U0001f914

  Today's episode goes deep, but in the end our exploration leads us to construct a precise type that can be useful in everyday programming!https://t.co/8wxOjGEZLi pic.twitter.com/TyhGcbjnzq

  — Point-Free (@pointfreeco) June 11, 2018 The transition from founder-driven sales to founder-assisted sales generally starts with hiring a "maverick" sort of salesperson; someone who is comfortable extracting what you know about the market, iterating rapidly on scripts, and doing "things that don't scale" to win.

  — Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) October 18, 2018 It's been hard to have a good feeder in the US but the @usmlr @Usmis already helping that. We've picked up some great homegrown talent from the inaugural season and there's more to come!

  — Robin Parnell (@RobinParnell4) October 18, 2018 Stealing a line from @asmartbear which has paid for at least a year or two of my kids' education:

  "If you go with BigCo, you can call them at 3 AM. Someone will listen to you politely, explain they have no solution, and open a ticket. If you call at 3 PM, same answer."

  — Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) October 18, 2018

  2018/10/23
• 
  

  Infoman

  World's longest sea crossing: Hong Kong-Zhuhai bridge opens

  130 gadders 13 hrs 96

  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-45937924

  news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18281626

  Media playback is unsupported on your device

  Media captionFlying over the world's longest sea bridge Chinese President Xi Jinping has officially opened the world's longest sea crossing bridge, nine years after construction first began.

  Including its access roads, the bridge spans 55km (34 miles) and connects Hong Kong to Macau and the mainland Chinese city of Zhuhai.

  The bridge has cost about $20bn (£15.3bn) and seen several delays.

  Construction has been dogged by safety issues - at least 18 workers have died on the project, officials say.

  Mr Xi attended the opening ceremony of the bridge which took place in Zhuhai along with the leaders of Hong Kong and Macau on Tuesday.

  The bridge will open to regular traffic on Wednesday.

  What's so special about this bridge?

  The crossing connects three key coastal cities in southern China - Hong Kong, Macau and Zhuhai.

  The bridge, designed to withstand earthquakes and typhoons, was built using 400,000 tonnes of steel, enough to build 60 Eiffel Towers.

  About 30km of its total length crosses the sea of the Pearl River delta. To allow ships through, a 6.7km section in the middle dips into an undersea tunnel that runs between two artificial islands.

  Image copyright Getty Images Image caption One of two artificial islands that have been built as part of the multi-billion-dollar project The remaining sections are link roads, viaducts and land tunnels connecting Zhuhai and Hong Kong to the main bridge.

  Why has it been built?

  It is part of China's plan to create a Greater Bay Area, including Hong Kong, Macau and nine other cities in southern China.

  The area is currently home to 68 million people.

  In the past, travelling between Zhuhai and Hong Kong would take up to four hours - the new bridge cuts this down to 30 minutes.

  Can anyone drive across the bridge?

  No. Those who want to cross the bridge must obtain special permits, allocated by a quota system. And all vehicles will pay a toll.

  The bridge is not served by public transport, so private shuttle buses will also ply the route. There is no rail link.

  Authorities initially estimated that 9,200 vehicles would cross the bridge every day. They later lowered their estimations after new transport networks were built in the region.

  What are people saying about it?

  There's been a great deal of criticism of the project.

  The bridge has been dubbed the "bridge of death" by some local media. At least nine workers on the Hong Kong side have died and officials told BBC News Chinese that nine had died on the mainland side, too.

  Hundreds of workers have also been injured during the construction.

  You might also be interested in:

  Could China really launch a 'fake moon'? Where film stars and police chiefs can simply vanish Why an 'encouraging' Chinese phrase is in the OED The giant cave hall discovered in a sinkhole Image copyright Getty Images Image caption At least 18 people have died working on the bridge There have also been concerns about the environmental impact.

  Environmental groups say the project may have caused serious harm to marine life in the area, including the critically rare Chinese white dolphin.

  The number of dolphins seen in Hong Kong waters has decreased from 148 to 47 in the past 10 years, and they are now absent from the waters near the bridge, according to the Hong Kong branch of the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).

  "The project has made irreversible damage to the sea," said Samantha Lee, Assistant Director of Ocean Conservation at the WWF. "I am worried that the number will never rise again."

  Image caption It is rare to see Chinese White Dolphins around the bridge after years of construction, say environmental groups Is it going to make up its costs?

  The bridge, surrounding link roads and artificial islands cost a staggering $20bn to build - the main bridge alone cost $6.92bn.

  Chinese officials say it will generate up to 10 trillion yuan ($1.44tn; £1tn) for the economy, but one Hong Kong lawmaker cast doubt on that figure.

  "I am not so sure either how the bridge can sustain itself if not many cars are using it," Tanya Chan told BBC News Chinese.

  "I am pretty sure that we would never earn that [construction cost] back."

  According to an estimate by BBC Chinese, the bridge will only earn around $86m in tolls per year.

  In fact, the bridge's maintenance costs would already take away a third of this income.

  Critics have called the bridge a "big white elephant" that guarantees no economic return. Others have said its main purpose is symbolic, ensuring Hong Kong is physically connected to the mainland.

  Additional reporting by Lam Cho Wai, BBC Chinese.

  2018/10/23
• 
  

  Infoman

  上周環球科技股表現頗差，反映大型科技股走勢的納指100跌了3%，原因眾說紛紜，有說因估值高，觸發調整；也可能是10年期國債債息升上3.2厘，金融條件不再寬鬆，科技股首當其衝；亦有說是中美關係忽然惡化，間諜晶片事件觸發拋售。不論原因為何，科技股調整壓力確日增，納指100指數上周五跌穿了50天線，逼近100天線才見反彈，跌幅略為收窄，收報7399點，目前，100天線處於7320點，200天線則位於7023點，過去5年，200天線是終極支持，未來一兩星期相信或要考驗一下此防守線。

  2018/10/07
• 
  

  Infoman

  美國股市上周五收低。市場預期，全球金融市場本周五大焦點，分別是美國消費物價指數、聯儲局高官言論、美國藍籌業績，以及中英兩國經濟數據等消息。同時，美國債券孳息率走勢也是市場關注焦點。

  美國周一是「哥倫比亞日」(Columbus Day)法定假期，但股市如常買賣，債市則休息。

  上周五在債券孳息升至7年新高的衝擊下，美國股市下滑。道瓊斯工業平均指數曾急挫300點。累計上周，納斯特綜合指數急滑3.2%；標準普爾500指數回落1%，為連續第二周受挫；道指則大致持平。

  展望本周，首個最令市場關注的焦點，將是美國當地東岸時間周四早上八時半公布的9月消費物價指數，因為數據將反映聯儲局有沒有進一步加息的可能。市場預期，9月消費物價指數將上升0.2%，按年升2.4%；撇除能源與食品外的核心消費物價指數按年料升2.3%。

  除了上述數據外，美國本周也會公布其他數據，包括周三的生產價格指數與周五的密歇根消費者情緒指數。

  第二個最令投資者關注的消息，將是多名聯儲局高官的發言。首先，紐約聯儲銀行總裁威廉姆斯將出席由紐約聯儲銀行與印尼央行合辦的講座，發表金融政策消息。同場發表演講的還有亞特蘭大聯儲銀行總裁波斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)、芝加哥聯儲銀行總裁埃文斯(Charles Evans)，以及金融監管副主席夸爾斯(Randal Quarles)。

  第三個關注焦點，是周五開始的藍籌第三季業績期。揭開序幕的是摩根大通、花旗、富國與PNC等。FactSet預期，藍籌第三季每股盈利平均升幅為19.2%，收入升幅平均為7.3%，主要受惠於能源巨擘業績顯著改善。

  第四個焦點，將是中國周五公布的9月貿易數據。市場預期，中國9月貿易順差將收窄至210億美元，前一月為279億美元；出口值料升9.1%，入口值升15%。

  第五個焦點，將是英國周三公布的8月經濟增長，市場預期升幅為0.1%，較7月的0.3%有所放緩。

  2018/10/07
• 
  

  Infoman

  The Making of Underrun – A WebGL Shooter in 13kb of JavaScript

  276 phoboslab 6 hrs 26 https://phoboslab.org/log/2018/09/underrun-making-of

  news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18031024

  I participated in this year's js13kGames, a JavaScript game development competition with a file size limit of 13kb, including code, assets and everything else. My entry was Underrun, a twin stick shooter using WebGL.

  Underrun Play Underrun – A WebGL shooter in 13kb of JavaScript

  For this competition I set out to produce something with a dense atmosphere – which is inherently difficult to do with so little space. In my experience a dense atmosphere is most easily achieved with two things: moody lighting and rich sound & music. The assets for sound & music usually take up a lot of space and lighting for 2D games requires more and bigger graphic assets. With only 13kb to space I had to look for different solutions for these things.

  Graphic Assets

  Since I was very limited with the amount of graphic assets I could fit in this game the decision to implement a 3D perspective came naturally: atmospheric lighting is easier to do in 3D than in 2D and requires less assets to look neat. In contrast, to produce interesting light effects in 2D typically requires you to implement a third dimension anyway. This can be done through normal maps as some 2D Pixel Art games do or by explicitly separating your environment into different layers as Teleglitch does for example.

  My approach for the graphics was to render a simple 2D tilemap with a bunch of textured quads. All walls are rendered as cubes and entities (the player, enemies, projectiles, particles and health pickups) are just simple sprites. All textures for the game fit in a single tile sheet, 2.12kb in size.

  Underrun AssetsAll graphic assets for the game, carefully tuned to 16 colors

  I opted to render the player character as a sprite as well, even though it needs to be freely rotated. It was far easier to produce 8 different sprites – one for each direction – than to implement a loader and renderer for complex 3D models. This allowed me to omit any 3D vector or matrix math operations. The game never needs to rotate any geometry. Everything is rendered with axis aligned quads.

  To make the player character rotation look convincing I build a 3D model and simply took screenshots for each of the different perspectives. I'm a total doofus when it comes to 3D modeling software, but that doesn't stop me from using the ingenious Wings3D. The result doesn't look like much, but scaled down to 16px, it doesn't matter.

  titleThe player character model built in Wings3D

  The final game features 3 different levels, each 64×64 tiles in size. When I started to work on the game I considered to use Run Length Encoding to compress the level maps. However, even as simple as RLE is, a decompressor for it would have taken up some valuable space. So my solution was to just let the browser handle the decompression by using PNG images.

  titleUnderrun's levels are stored as PNG images

  With the PNG compression, each level image is just about 300bytes in size. A naive approach would have needed 64×64 bytes = 4kb per level (assuming storage as raw binary, 1byte per tile).

  When loading the level a random number generator (RNG) is used to determine exactly which tile graphic to use for each floor and wall. The RNG also decides where to place enemies and powerups, as these are not encoded in the level images. To make this consistent between playthroughs, so that each player plays exactly the same game, I implemented a tiny seedable RNG (source code) and re-seeded it with the same constant before loading each level.

  I also hardcoded some of the wall tiles to be rendered with twice the normal height to make it look more interesting. You can see the complete level loading routines in the load_level() function.

  Rendering

  The renderer follows an extremely simple design: a single buffer is used to store all vertices, texture coordinates and normals. A second buffer is used to store all light sources (position, color, attenuation). The game can write to these buffers using the push_quad() and push_light() functions. The renderer clears these buffers at the beginning of each frame and draws the (filled) buffers at the end of the frame.

  There's one small optimization to this. During level load, since all the level geometry is static, the game sets a reset mark for the geometry buffer after all the level geometry has been pushed. Before each frame the renderer will then reset the write position for the geometry buffer to this reset mark instead of to 0. This clears all the entities, but we don't we don't have to re-push the level data.

  Since the game's graphics are quite simple, there's no need for any occlusion culling or any other optimizations to reduce the amount of geometry being drawn. Underrun draws the whole level – all floor an ceiling tiles and all sprites – for every single frame in a single draw call.

  The gist of the renderer looks like this:

  var num_verts = 0, level_num_verts = 0, max_verts = 1024 * 64, buffer_data = new Float32Array(max_verts * 8); function push_quad(x1, y1, z1, ...) { buffer_data.set([x1, y1, z1, ...], num_verts * 8); num_verts += 6; } function load_level(data) { num_verts = 0; for (var y = 0; y < 64; y++) { for (var x = 0; x < 64; x++) { } } level_num_verts = num_verts; } function renderer_prepare_frame() { num_verts = level_num_verts; } function renderer_end_frame() { gl.bufferData(gl.ARRAY_BUFFER, buffer_data, gl.DYNAMIC_DRAW); gl.drawArrays(gl.TRIANGLES, 0, num_verts); }; function tick() { renderer_prepare_frame(); for (var i = 0; i < entities.length; i++) { entities[i].update(); entities[i].draw(); } renderer_end_frame(); requestAnimationFrame(tick); } For the lighting I opted for some very simple vertex lights. Since the game only renders relatively small quads, it doesn't matter much that the light computation is handled in the vertex shader instead of per-pixel in the fragment shader. This also allowed for many more light sources. The game currently allows for 32 lights, each of which considered for every single vertex. Current GPUs are so stupidly fast that no optimizations are needed for such simple cases.

  The light calculation in Underrun's Vertex Shader looks somewhat like this:

  uniform float lights[7 * max_lights]; varying vec3 vertex_light; void main(void){ vertex_light = vec3(0.3, 0.3, 0.6); for(int i = 0; i < max_lights; i++ ) { vec3 light_position = vec3(lights[i7], lights[i7+1], lights[i7+2]); vec3 light_color = vec3(lights[i7+3], lights[i7+4], lights[i7+5]); vec3 distance = length(light_position - vertex_position); float attenuation= (1.0/(lights[i*7+6] * distance); vertex_light += light_color * max(dot(normal, normalize(dist)), 0.0) * attenuation; } } For some extra scary atmosphere the fragment shader calculates a simple black fog based on the distance to the camera. An exception is made to the enemies' eyes: all full red texture pixels are always rendered unchanged – no light, no fog. This makes them essentially glow in the dark.

  The fragment shader also reduces the final image to 256 colors. I experimented with some color tinting but ultimately settled for a uniform rgb palette. Rendering in 256 colors and a screen size of just 320×180 pixels not only gives the game an old-school vibe, but also hides a lot of the graphical shortcomings.

  Have a look at the source code for the renderer.js and game.js - there's really not that much to it.

  Music & Sounds

  The sound and music for all my previous games made up the bulk of the data size. E.g. Xibalba has about 800kb of graphic assets (tile sheets, sprites, title screen etc.) but more than 4mb of music and 2.5mb of sound effects (actually 8mb and 5mb respectively, since all assets need to be provided as .ogg and .mp3). This was of course infeasible when you only have 13kb total to work with.

  So for Underrun all music and sound effects are generated in JavaScript when the game starts. The game uses the brilliant Sonant-X library to render instruments from a bunch of parameters into sound waves.

  My dear friend Andreas Lösch of no-fate.net produced the instruments and sequences for the music in the tracker Sonant-X Live. The sound effects were produced in Sonant-X Live as well; each effect being a single instrument.

  Sonant-XUnderrun's Music, produced in the Sonant-X Live tracker

  To save some more space I began to remove all the parts from Sonant-X that were not needed for my game, leaving only the WebAudio generator. In doing so I noticed that the library was unnecessary slow, taking half a second to generate an empty buffer object. The culprit was the use of a single, interleaved Uint8 Buffer for the left and right audio channel, storing unsigned 16bit values with the implicit zero amplitude at 32767.

  The library was spending a lot of time loading from and storing 16bit values into this 8bit buffer and later converting it to a signed float suitable for WebAudio. I believe this is an artifact from the original use case of this library: producing a WAV data URI.

  I refactored the library to use two Float32Arrays (one for each channel) that can be directly used by the WebAudio API in the browser. This not only simplified the code and reduced the file size by 30% but also made the music generation twice as fast.

  As an example, have a look at the original applyDelay() function and my modified one - granted, I also removed the pausing/re-scheduling functions here that originally prevented blocking the event loop with a long running computation, but it wasn't really needed anymore.

  All in all, minified and gzipped, the music and sound for Underrun along with the Sonant-X library now occupy only about 2kb. That's a pretty big deal, considering all my previous games' biggest asset were sound and music. So even if your game is not size restricted as much, it may make sense to generate audio directly in your game, instead of adding big files to the download.

  Minification

  When I started this project I took great care to write as little code as possible and to make sure all my code could be minified effectively by UglifyJS. The source has quite an unusual style compared to my other JS projects. It's using a lot of global variables and functions, instead of abstracting it more neatly into classes. I also wrote the code in the more C-like snake_case style to force my brain into this different mode.

  In hindsight, this was totally unnecessarily. Minifying and zipping would have gotten rid of most of the overhead of using more abstractions.

  One trick that made a small difference is the "inlining" of all WebGL constants at build-time. E.g. gl.ONE_MINUS_SRC_ALPHA is replaced with just 771 - the constant's value. I also shortened all the WebGL function calls by producing aliases that just contained the first two letters and all subsequent upper-case letters of the function's original name:

  for (var name in gl) { if (gl[name].length !== undefined) { gl[name.match(/(^..|[A-Z]|\d.|v$)/g).join('')] = gl[name]; } } This allowed me to use gl.getUniformLocation() as just gl.geUL(). Note though that this approach is quite hack-ish and produces some name collisions. But for my game it worked out nicely.

  I also took a lot of shortcuts with the game logic and especially collision detection. Collision detection between entities is just using two nested loops, checking each entity against all other entities. This quadratic function quickly explodes with a lot of entities in the level (e.g. 100 entities = 10.000 comparisons) - it's just amazing with what you can get away with these days.

  Other than that I didn't do anything particularly clever or exciting to further minify the game.

  The full source for Underrun is on github: github.com/phoboslab/underrun

  Be sure to have a look at some of the other js13Games entries this year. Some of my favorites are The Chroma Incident, 1024 Moves, ISP, Wander and Envisonator.

  2018/09/20
• 
  

  Infoman

  How Game Apps That Captivate Kids Have Been Collecting Their Data

  20 johnny313 49 mins 0

  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/12/technology/kids-apps-data-privacy-google-twitter.html

  news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17994300

  Loading...

  2018/09/15
• 
  

  Infoman

  Amd will surge to $40 by Oct 23

  AMD has the capacity to surpass forecasted weak sales growth in Q3 and beyond.

  The chip company appears poised to make the jump to 40%-plus gross margins due to higher margins from EPYC.

  Look for the long-term EPS target to get hiked above the $0.75 estimate.

  After a stunning rally to $30, investors might be shocked to find out that Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) already is at the end of the growth phase, according to forecasts. As per my previous research, the cyclical nature of the business should haunt the stock at these levels, but the business trends remain far too bullish to dump AMD and run away here.

  Shocking Deceleration Forecast Advertisement

  Investors chasing this rally want to compare AMD to the amazing rally of Nvidia (NVDA). Both companies did go from lackluster numbers to recently incredible sales growth topping 50%. One big difference in the story is that Nvidia has reached sustainable growth in the 50% range.

  The shocking part of Q2 results for AMD wasn’t 53% revenue growth in the quarter, but the amazingly low Q3 guidance. The chip company typically surpasses estimates, but AMD can’t possibly overcome weak projected growth of only 7%. Yes, you read that correctly. Growth will decelerate sequentially from 53% to only 7% in part due to weakness in the GPUs sold into the blockchain market as cryptocurrencies weakened this year.

  The numbers don't actually add up. Looking at analyst projections for Q4 and 2019 would suggest that growth actually is going to decelerate while trends are turning more bullish. During the whole run up, analysts underestimated the potential for AMD so it’s possible this is just another pause in the cycle as 50%-plus growth was never imagined for the last quarter going back the last couple of years.

  All accounts suggest AMD has a large opportunity in server sales as Intel (INTC) continues to struggle. Rosenblatt Securities analysis forecasts that AMD can grow sales 30% by capturing just 10% of the server market via EPYC processors. The data center market is ripe for the chipmaker to take market share that started with the 50% sequential growth in Q2.

  Image Source: AMD website

  The interesting note here is that Nvidia had some similar concerns of slowing growth in the initial rally before exploring new markets outside of the traditional GPU market. Analyst Hans Mosesmann sees upside due to a similar shift for AMD toward AI chips by beating Nvidia to the 7 nm chips, leading to growth that's faster than street expectations. An additional benefit is much higher margins moving outside of the CPU market where the massive size of Intel has traditionally squeezed their gross margins.

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  About Those Margins A big issue is that AMD isn’t able to generate the gross margins necessary for substantial profits in the sector. The company only forecasts reaching 38% levels in Q3. Even substantial sales growth doesn’t improve the bottom line far beyond the Q2 levels due to these low margins. Both Intel and Nvidia are up above 60% gross margin levels.

  ChartAMD Gross Profit Margin (TTM) data by YCharts Analyst Mosesmann thinks AMD can achieve similar margins in server sales. Such a move would be a game changer in the investment story.

  Every dollar of server sales would equate to nearly twice as much gross profit using his estimate of 65% gross margins. For this reason, pure revenue sales isn’t the only goal of AMD. After all, Nvidia is worth more than $165 billion due to the bigger margins. The quarterly sales level of $3.1 billion is only about double the $1.7 billion level of AMD.

  Operating expenses for AMD were recently in the $450 million range per quarter so operating income surges with 60% gross margins. The company can quickly reach the mid-40% gross margin target if EPYC server chips can reach the 65% level.

  Source: AMD Q2'18 presentation

  Even at a $2 billion quarterly revenue rate, AMD would be lucky to generate profits of $0.75 under the current margin system. At 45% gross margins, the income potential soars. Gross profits would soar to $900 million per quarter, allowing for operating income to surge from only $186 million in Q2 to $433 million with flat operating expenses.

  In such a scenario, only a 15% revenue gain could lead to a roughly doubling of the EPS total. AMD likely needs high sales growth for that big of a gross margin expansion, but the exercise provides the simple example of how the financial trends favor a higher stock price.

  Takeaway The key investor takeaway is that the sentiment shift in the AMD story is far too positive to get in the way of the stock. The chip company has the potential to smash sales estimates and combined with margin gains blow away EPS estimates. The stock appears expensive now, but the momentum is still too strong to exit this story.

  2018/09/13
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  Infoman

  AMD shares rise after skeptical analyst admits chipmaker is gaining market share Susquehanna Financial Group's PC-SIGnals report for the third quarter reveals rising share for AMD chips in the desktop PC, laptop and graphics card markets. "AMD is the winner of 3Q18 PC-SIGnals! Most data points for AMD were constructive," the firm's analyst Christopher Rolland says. Tae Kim | @firstadopter Published 12:42 PM ET Mon, 10 Sept 2018 Updated 4:15 PM ET Mon, 10 Sept 2018 CNBC.com AMD, Advanced Microdevices Chris Stowers | Bloomberg | Getty Images New research from one of AMD's biggest critics shows the chipmaker is gaining share in three key markets. Susquehanna Financial Group released its latest PC-SIGnals report for the third quarter, which revealed rising share for Advanced Micro Device's chips in the desktop PC, laptop and graphics card markets. "AMD is the winner of 3Q18 PC-SIGnals! Most data points for AMD were constructive, including better desktop share (+1.5% QOQ), better laptop share (+1.7% QOQ), and higher aftermarket GPU share (+4% QOQ)," analyst Christopher Rolland said in a note to clients Monday. AMD is "gaining share in both desktops and laptops as Ryzen ramp continues."

  AMD's shares rose 9.2 percent Monday. PLAY VIDEO Sinking semi stocks are the ‘canary in the coalmine,’ market watcher warns The firm's PC-SIGnals product uses big data analysis to aggregate product specifications from more than 2,000 desktops, 2,000 laptops and 1,000 graphic cards in the market. The report is intended to show share shifts among chipmakers and hardware companies before the end of each quarter. Rolland is one of most bearish analysts covering AMD on Wall Street. He has a neutral rating and $14 price target for the company's shares, which is 49 percent below Friday's closing price. AMD's stock is significantly outperforming the market this year. Its shares are up 166.3 percent year to date through Friday versus the S&P 500's 7.4 percent gain. The company's stock is the top-performing name in the S&P 500 this year. In recent weeks, several Wall Street firms— including Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Cowen and Jefferies — have raised their price targets for the chipmaker's shares, citing AMD's process manufacturing advantage over Intel.

  2018/09/12