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Member since 2017-07-15T03:50:57Z. Last seen 2025-01-02T20:05:01Z.
2729 blog posts. 128 comments.
疫情在全球蔓延，多國實施禁令限制民眾外出，要在家避疫，導致食物及日常用品出現搶購潮，農場勞工短缺，食品供應鏈遭打斷；加上部分國家為保障食物及物資供應充裕，實施保護主義，聯合國糧食及農業組織（FAO）警告，最快未來數周全球面臨糧食短缺。
聯合國糧農組織首席經濟師托蘭洛（Maximo Torero）表示，最惡劣情況是政府實施出口禁運及加徵關稅等貿易壁壘，而部分產糧國為保障食物供應已限制糧食出口。
進口國增戰略儲備
當中哈薩克已禁止麵粉出口，並限制輸出洋葱、蘿蔔、薯仔等糧食。全球最大稻米出口國印度實施為期3周的全國封城，第三大稻米出口國越南據報亦暫停簽署稻米出口合約，直至3月28日。全球最大小麥出口國俄羅斯則威脅限制小麥出口，當地植物油協會呼籲暫停輸出葵花籽。全球第二棕櫚油生產國馬來西亞則錄得出口量放緩。
與此同時，糧食進口國紛紛增加戰略糧食儲備，當中伊朗急需100萬公噸小麥及25萬公噸稻米，這種糧食供應扭曲現象已惹起農產品期貨交易商關注。
分析預計，今年全球稻米儲存量超過1.8億公噸，超出2015年至2016年度逾28%，然而各地稻米庫存不均，超過1.53億公噸存於中國及印度。菲律賓農業部長達爾（William Dar）承認，該國稻米儲備存量維持在足夠居民食用65天的水平。這意味一旦農作物出口長期減少，菲律賓等亞洲及非洲稻米進口國面臨糧荒。
新加坡有稻米期貨交易員指出，越南暫停出口，印度全國封城，泰國可能推出類似措施，令稻米市場鬧出物流問題。由於預期出口量進一步減少，稻米價格飆升。泰國稻米標準價格升至每公噸492.5美元，創下2013年8月以來新高。小麥市場出現類似情況，芝加哥小麥期貨價格本月上揚10%。
橙汁期貨價飆兩成
此外，疫情期間，消費者對健康食品需求大增。可是在封城令下，運輸交通受阻，導致供不應求，其中橙汁期貨價格本月已飆升20%。
由於主要蔬果將踏入收成期，這類糧食熟成期短，容易變壞，農場必須聘用足夠熟手技工準時收割。
托蘭洛指出，收割蔬果需要大量人手，假如工人必須繼續留守家中，出現人手短缺，打斷食品價值鏈（food value chain），未來兩周可能出現食物短缺，兩個月後問題將加劇。
英國組織「全球農業和營養開放數據」（GODAN）行政總監拉佩里埃（Andre Laperriere）呼籲，各國政府必須制訂計劃，確保食物供應暢順。
目前全球面對黑暗又難纏的強大「敵人」，當中國在1月底實施封城令，部分經濟學家已預言供應鏈將出現問題。筆者亦曾使用隱喻「尋找擋風玻璃的蟲子」，指出全球經濟撞正新冠肺炎，實在是找死。然而，筆者最初預期疫情到夏天就會告一段落，疫苗快將面世。現在看來除非全球採取激烈措施，否則數以十萬計人將不敵病毒。
現時美國50個州份均出現確診個案，筆者相信全美封城與實施社會隔離是唯一抗疫方法，儘管經濟代價高昂，但其他選項效果更加差劣。在抗疫期間，美國必須撐住經濟，意味總值數以萬億美元計的大型刺激經濟方案勢將出台，同時祭出緊急補助、補貼貸款、豁免條款等措施。雖然美國政府債務及財政赤字驚人，但已別無他法。
流失職位以千萬計
近期申領失業保險金者大增，預料失業大軍日漸壯大。Mish Talk專欄作家夏洛克（Mike Shedlock）追蹤美國政府就業數據，推算失業率接近12%，低度就業率（U-6，指有意搵長工卻只能兼職者或不積極求職者）逾39%。就算夏洛克只貼中一半，意味美國已經流失超過1000萬個職位，勢將共減少2000萬個工作崗位。
雖然美國可能面臨通縮導致的經濟衰退，但必須出動馬歇爾計劃（Marshall Plan，即二戰後美國援助歐洲的復興計劃）。目前歐洲和其他國家已陷於苦戰，假如美國未能擺脫疫情，全球將進入通縮式經濟衰退。美國落入如斯田地，聯儲局實難辭其咎，因為把利率壓得太低，低息政策持續太長，政府債務超越名義GDP。但眾多美國家庭面臨經濟壓力，他們如何能繳交屋租？支付電費？所以筆者呼籲當局推出大型量化寬鬆計劃。
一旦美國決定全國封城，政府花費數萬億美元以保障國民收入，筆者認為絕非瘋狂，反而是最佳選擇，同樣也要協助大中小企業渡過難關。
美國總統特朗普指出，當局將協助航空公司解困，皆因企業非疫情的始作俑者。特朗普言之有理，當局必須確保航班如常服務。酒店、郵輪營運商、小型釀酒廠、餐廳、髮廊及數以百萬計小企業也必須獲得援手，以免工人失業。
政府應率先幫助國民，然後才輪到協助企業，首先重建消費者信心，恢復購買力，繼而讓企業受惠。部分行業處境坎坷，當中旅遊業、飲食業及服務業受打擊最大，「封城期」失去的收入將難以彌補。諾貝爾經濟學獎得主克魯明（Paul Krugman）主張政府擴大開支，筆者一向不表苟同，但這次政府一擲4萬億至5萬億美元紓困，筆者跟克魯明站在同一陣線。
上世紀三十年代經濟大蕭條，影響一代人或兩代人的生活。這次疫情也可能在一代人留下傷痛，尤其2008年經濟大衰退相距不遠，真是噩夢連連。
那麼疫情過後，將發生何事？
美國政府負債纍纍，聯儲局勢將把大部分債務貨幣化，然後推高通脹。但筆者再次重申，美國可能步入通縮導致的經濟衰退，必須盡力避開此劫。為了刺激通脹，當局或增加貨幣供應量，大幅提升需求。當局「放水」不成問題，但經過這場浩劫，未必能一如以往帶起需求。
此外，疫情勢將改變工作模式，老闆發現遠程辦公行得通，打工仔也喜愛在家工作，企業可能縮減辦公室規模。同時，政府幫助小企業也有期限，不能永無休止地支援，看來老闆及員工要另作打算。
全面封城最多僅能持續數月，假設各行各業能支撐6個月，屆時疫情受控，疫苗面世。筆者認為既然政府財政赤字已經大幅膨脹，不如發行殖利率為1厘的100年期長期國債，由聯儲局大量購入，政府則把融資所得的數萬億美元，在未來數年改善基建。由於勞工市場可能缺乏職位空缺，投資於基建能創造大量職位，讓未來數代受惠。
然而，筆者不得不承認，目前恍如二次大戰結束之時，由聯儲局完全操縱孳息曲線（yield curve）。
可通過社交網站派錢
另一方面，很多失業工人使用社交網站，筆者敢打賭Facebook、Google、SAP及其他矽谷科技巨頭將想出法子，蒐集用戶數據，再向當局獻計，提出連接財政部，透過社交網站，向國民寄出政府的派錢支票，企業也可透過同一方法收到援助。
疫情也讓人思考供應鏈問題。現在大家對「社交距離」耳熟能詳，預計可能出現「經濟距離」。經濟夥伴隱瞞疫情，導致病毒散播全球，還能依賴對方嗎？
隨着3D打印與機械人科技日漸普及，愈來愈多製造商把生產線遷至接近市場，儘管有關趨勢加劇，生產線也需人手操作，意味歐美職位空缺勢必增加，供應鏈運作更加暢順。
美國亦必須正視主要醫療產品及生活必需品供應問題。若疾病控制及預防中心（CDC）及FDA肯放寬監管，嶄新的療法及藥物將源源不絕湧出，單是米爾肯研究中心（Milken Institute）便正研發或測試110種疫苗及藥物。
一旦當局放寬監管，醫生可利用各種藥物以縮短發病期，增加病人存活率。既然瘧疾藥物或可治療新冠肺炎，其他專科藥物可能用於醫治不同疾病。民間企業亦可能轉型製造醫療設備，譬如車廠工人生產呼吸機。事實上，全球首款呼吸機就是在二次大戰期間由波音工人打造，安裝於戰鬥機。
美國名醫羅意升（Michael F. Roizen）建議多睡、減壓及常吃健康食物，以加強免疫力。美國明星級對沖基金經理阿克曼（Bill Ackman）呼籲特朗普下達全國封城令，也合情合理。筆者獲悉國民警衞隊已派駐多處地點抗疫，亦呼籲讀者謹記保持社交距離，未來數周盡量避免乘搭飛機。
作者為著名投資分析專家，其《前沿思考》（Thoughts from the Frontline）是目前全球發布範圍最廣的投資通訊，擁有過百萬讀者。John Mauldin擁有極強洞察能力，擅長解構複雜的金融現象，每周對華爾街、全球金融市場和經濟歷史提出精闢見解，並與擁有6人分析員團隊的Mauldin Economics，一同把John Mauldin對宏觀經濟的幾十年分析經驗結合各大行的投資建議，為投資者精挑細選出投資機遇，並在網站https://www.mauldineconomics.com刊出。
《信報》為大中華區唯一刊載John Mauldin投資通訊的中文媒體，內容由《信報》翻譯。
Mar. 26, 2020 11:18 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SP500)BA, DIA, EWY...50 Comments44 Likes Summary
Evaluating the sustainability of the recent bounce in U.S. stocks. A pragmatic perspective on some optimistic assumptions. You have one week to decide on any substantive changes to your portfolio before the economic and financial news flow really starts to pick up. The U.S. stock market is finally back. After smashing the bear market speed record and falling by more than -35% over just twenty-three trading days since February 19, the S&P 500 Index finally found a bottom on Monday, March 23. Over the two trading days since, U.S. stocks have bounced by as much as +17%. The bounce appears to be on. But for how long? And what’s next after this initial bounce?
How do we know whether this bounce will continue? Only time will tell, as this market remains highly unpredictable, but a few key indicators are signaling that this bounce may have further to go.
First, with the bounce that started on Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index definitively broke out above its steep downward sloping trendline.
This stock market bounce was foreshadowed as early as last Thursday by the CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the “fear” index. The VIX first broke its uptrend dating back to the stock market peak during the up day last Thursday. And while stocks fell hard on Friday and Monday, the VIX continued to drift lower. This suggested that while selling pressure was persisting, the investor fear and mass liquidation pressures that had been gripping the market were finally subsiding.
Is this the latest “buy the dip” opportunity for long-term investors? This is where things start to get tricky for investors. If you came to investing for the first time over the past decade, the only stock market you have ever known is one that does the following:
Put simply, whenever the stock market fell for any sustainable amount of time, this was the long-anticipated buying opportunity to capitalize upon. For whenever stocks started to fall, you just knew it was only a matter of time before policy makers would come to the rescue with promises of that latest shot of monetary adrenaline that would eventually jolt stocks to new all-time highs.
So where are we today in this regard? The economic situation sure looks dire today. But it has looked pretty bad on a number of occasions over the past decade, and each and every time the Fed pulled off the market stick save. And look at the amount of stimulus that the Fed is rolling out today. Unlimited QE. Monetizing everything in sight except for stocks (and let’s be real, we all know it’s only a matter of time before they’re buying stocks, right?). The actions of Jay Powell and today’s Fed would leave Ben Bernanke and the FOMC from the Great Financial Crisis blushing. How can this not be the force that eventually drives stocks to new all-time highs by the end of 2020 once the coronavirus has become a distant memory and the global economy has roared back to life?
Perhaps this notion will prove correct. Perhaps what we are seeing today is simply the latest iteration of the Fed stock market stick save. Perhaps this will be their most extraordinary work yet. But what if, after a decade of seeming invincibility, policy makers and the U.S. stock market have finally met their match?
A pragmatic perspective on some optimistic assumptions. I have a decidedly different view on what I believe lies ahead for financial markets. I maintain this view for several reasons, which I have outlined below.
Today’s economic challenges are different from the financial crisis. Back in 2008, the Main Street economy was generally doing just fine as evidenced by the following quote.
"Well, I do remember one conversation I had where I was addressing a caucus of congressmen. And a congressman said to me, 'Mr. Chairman, you know, I'm talking to bankers in my town. I'm talking to shopkeepers in my town. And they say things are normal. Nothing's going on. We don't see any problem.' And I turned to him and I said, 'You will,'" Bernanke recalled.
--Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, 60 Minutes, March 2009
Instead, the crisis in 2008 was a paper problem, as a whole bunch of knuckleheads in the financial industry got way too far out over their skis with leverage and risk taking. It was Long Term Capital Management from ten years earlier in 1998 on a mass scale. The system seized up at the expense of the economy. And the Fed needed to reliquify the system to get the economy going again. In short, it was a supply problem originating in the financial system. It was not a demand problem.
Today, we have a demand problem of unprecedented proportions. Assuming Congressional representatives are talking to bankers and shopkeepers in their respective towns, they are saying over their phones as they stay-at-home that this is unlike anything they have experienced in their lifetime. Their entire local economy has effectively ground to a halt. In short, it is a demand problem, it is a supply problem, it is a flat out problem of epic proportions. And regardless of whether the Fed reliquifies the system or not with a huge fiscal assist from the U.S. government, we still have no idea when shopkeepers will reopen and when their customers will start showing up again when they do. Unfortunately, the same holds true for the largest corporations not only in the U.S. but across the world.
This is not a stimulus; it is a rescue. There’s a reason why everybody keeps saying that both the Fed and the U.S. government are going to need to do a lot more going forward. Because the money that is pouring into the financial system right now is not a stimulus designed to give a boost to already existing growth. Instead, the Fed is fire hosing liquidity into the financial system to prevent it from collapsing. The Fed isn’t trying to artificially inflate asset prices in order to create a “wealth effect” like it had over the past decade. Instead, the Fed is simply trying to buy time until fiscal policy makers can act and provide support in ways that they simply cannot.
Failure is an option. This is not the financial crisis. While banks are clearly under pressure today, they do not reside at the epicenter of the problem. And they are collectively vastly better capitalized with much less leverage and higher quality loan portfolios than they were twelve years ago. This doesn’t mean that a group of banks are not going to get taken out before it’s all said and done. But this is not a financial problem today.
Instead, this is an economy wide problem. And with the economy completely shut down, it is quickly becoming an insolvency problem. The Feds cannot rescue everybody, nor should they in a capitalist system regardless of the underlying cause of the economic recession. And the companies most at risk today are those that are either not systematically important to the economy or are highly capital intensive.
What do I mean here? A recent example from our ghosts of crisis past for an example of an important company, but not a systematically important one. If General Motors goes bankrupt as it did during the financial crisis, it does not imply the collapse of the economy. The assets are still there. The workers still have the skills to run the assembly lines. And the management teams still know how to run the business. It’s just that the company no longer has the capability to service its debt and meet its interest payments. What happens in this case is that the owners (shareholders) are wiped out and the bond holders take over the company to figure out what to do next. Now in the case of an important company like General Motors that has tons of feeder suppliers and manufacturers that are highly dependent on the automaker host, the government may get involved to dictate how the bankruptcy is resolved. And while the company was streamlined in the process, it still operates as a major U.S. company today, albeit with new ownership.
What about those companies that are not important? If you’re operating in a cyclical business such as retail or entertainment or lodging and with assets that could easily be auctioned off without much disruption, and you are not best of breed and/or investment grade rated, then your outlook is extremely challenged in the coming months. This is particularly true if you were operating your business with a high amount of leverage and debt.
So while the Fed can enter the marketplace and buy up corporate bonds in order to provide liquidity, they can only do so much to help an company facing solvency and liquidity risks to meet their interest and debt payments. Even if the rules are relaxed, a good number of companies that were previously deemed to be “safe” with “sufficient cash on hand” are likely to enter bankruptcy in the coming months.
The buyback pitchforks are coming out. Corporate share buybacks have been the primary if not exclusive driver of the post financial crisis bull market in stocks. And regardless of whether a cogent intellectual argument can be made about the value that is added from corporations repurchasing their shares, a fairly easily digestible counternarrative about how share repurchases effectively enrich corporate CEOs at the expense of the long-term financial viability of their companies is increasingly taking hold. One has to look no further than Boeing that took on mountains of debt and deployed billions of dollars in cash flow not to increase capital expenditures on a per share basis but instead to ship this money back to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks and dividends only to find themselves in desperate need of cash just like this amid liquidity and solvency crisis the moment the U.S. economy turns south. With companies like Boeing doing the heavy lifting for them, the progressive politicians that have been railing against stock buybacks for years are likely to have an increasing roster of easy targets to make their point.
Corporate earnings have yet to be revised lower in any meaningful way. On February 21 when the market was effectively at its peak, U.S. stocks were forecast to generate quarterly per share earnings on GAAP basis of $35.28 per share in 2020 Q1 and $38.92 per share in 2020 Q2. Almost exactly one month later on March 20 after the global economy has effectively ground to a halt, U.S. stocks are forecast to generate quarterly per share earnings on GAAP basis of $33.70 per share in 2020 Q1 and $36.07 per share in 2020 Q2. These are downward revisions of just over -4% in Q1 and -7% in Q2. I’ll just put it this way. Forward earnings estimates for the upcoming quarters need to come down A LOT from where they are today. I repeat – A LOT.
COVID-19 may not simply be a matter of “when we get back to normal”. I hear a lot of financial prognosticators proclaiming the following: “once the coronavirus has past and we get back to normal, the economy will be set to boom in the second half of the year”. Man, I hope they are right, but I just don’t see it playing out that way.
Consumers and businesses are likely to be very tentative for some time once the all clear signal has been sounded and people are able to freely venture out again. All that has taken place in such a short period of time has been highly unsettling and agoraphobia inducing. Not to pick on the President, but even if the coronavirus magically disappeared tomorrow, I’m not sure churches would be packed come Easter anyway. Many people have been forced to take a good hard look at their financial circumstances at a time when they are afraid to simply go outside. In short, this is going to be a tough one to come back from initially from an economic perspective, and much tougher than post 9/11.
Also, even if the stay-at-home calls are lifted and businesses are allowed to reopen, this does not mean that the COVID-19 risk simply goes away. The risk of a second wave will likely loom for months afterward. And even if it turns out that warm weather meaningfully suppresses the spread of the coronavirus, it is going to get cold again in this country come late next fall and into the winter. With this cold will come an added set of potential risks associated with our current episode that frankly I just don’t want to think about right now. Either of these second wave risks have the potential to send us back into another prolonged stay-at-home phase for months after the current episode passes. This threat alone is not good for the economy, much less it actually taking place for a second or third time around.
COVID-19 is not the only major shock the markets are dealing with right now. Largely overshadowed by a global health contagion is the fact that an OPEC+ oil price war erupted along the way. It is worth noting that it was a similar oil production decision by Saudi Arabia starting back in late 2014 that sent global financial markets for a wild ride and Fed stick save requiring tailspin for the next 15 months through early 2016. Today, we have an even more dramatic oil price war playing out today, yet it is largely an afterthought. But regardless of whether it is getting the attention it would deserve in most any other news cycle, it is a huge container of gasoline being poured on an already raging fire across capital markets with prolonged effects in its own right.
Don’t get me wrong. I fully believe that we as a country and a society will overcome this global health risk. We will persevere, and I believe that we will be stronger for it and much better prepared for the next time around, which will help greatly mitigate the risk of something like this happening again in the future. I firmly believe that this will all pass and everything will be OK again. But this doesn’t mean that I think the U.S. stock market needs to be trading at all-time highs or anywhere remotely to it for us to realize this final outcome. For example, the South Koreans have done a relatively exemplary job of confronting and managing the COVID-19 crisis to date, yet their stock market today is still trading nearly -20% below highs reached all the way back in 2007. The relationship between the economy and the stock market much less the outcome of a global pandemic weakened a long time ago once the Fed got into the game of juicing the stock market more than three decades ago.
You have one week to decide. Maybe you read all of these above risks and shrug your bullish shoulders. Perhaps you subscribe to some of the risks above, but dismiss others. Maybe you are deeply concerns about the downside risk prospects for capital markets. If you are undecided, or if you have been biding your time waiting for the bounce, now is the time to be thinking about your exposure to risk assets going forward. For once we get toward the end of next week, things for financial markets are about to get REAL real.
Up to this point, we have been moving through what is a traditionally quiet period of the quarter, particularly during the second half of March. The flow of economic and market data is minimal, and much of it is getting dismissed now anyway as it reflects conditions that were in place prior to the onset of COVID-19 in this country. And this quiet period will continue into next week.
This will all change come next Friday, April 3 when the monthly job report for March is released. From this point on, investors will increasingly be forced to take a look at a steady data showing how much damage the U.S. economy has sustained thus far.
Moreover, 2020 Q1 earnings season will quickly get underway starting the week of April 6 and picking up quickly through the remainder of the month and into May. This will not only include companies reporting on how they fared with the operating disruption at the very end of the first quarter, but they will also be issuing guidance (whatever this will be worth) on what they expect from their businesses in Q2 and beyond. All of this information is almost certainly going to be deeply troubling. The only question is exactly how troubling. But if the fact that current earnings forecasts remain as high as they are suggests a lot of space exists for investors to be negatively shocked while seeing their forward P/E ratios explode through the roof. The degree of solvency risk facing many companies will come increasingly into view during this time period as well.
So while hopes may be high that we may have bottomed on March 23, the likelihood instead is that we may have hit our first bottom in a series of successive bottoms that may extend out for some time into the future.
So how much further should we expect the stock market to bounce? Technical analysis helps inform our fundamental decision making. I am currently monitoring five key levels on the S&P 500 Index over the coming week. Three are Fibonacci retracement levels that include 2651, which would represent a 38.2% retracement of the correction from February 19 to March 23, along with 2793, or 50% retracement, and 2935, which represents 61.8% retracement. In addition, I am also watching the 400-day moving average at 2903 and falling as well as the 200-day moving average at 3024 and falling. As the S&P 500 Index approaches any and all of these five key technical levels, I will be watching to see how the market responds and whether stocks are showing signs of failing at resistance or breaking further through to the upside.
If we reach any of these key resistance levels between now and next Thursday, investors should carefully consider whether they want to use this bounce opportunity to exit before things really start to pick up in April. This is precisely what I will be doing in the week ahead with an eye toward reducing risk.
Disclosure: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. Gerring Capital Partners and Global Macro Research makes no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by Gerring Capital Partners and Global Macro Research will be met.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: I am long selected individual stocks as part of a broad asset allocation strategy.
Until pretty recently, computers were hopeless at producing sentences that actually made sense. But the field of natural-language processing (NLP) has taken huge strides, and machines can now generate convincing passages with the push of a button.
These advances have been driven by deep-learning techniques, which pick out statistical patterns in word usage and argument structure from vast troves of text. But a new paper from the Allen Institute of Artificial Intelligence calls attention to something still missing: machines don’t really understand what they’re writing (or reading).
This is a fundamental challenge in the grand pursuit of generalizable AI—but beyond academia, it’s relevant for consumers, too. Chatbots and voice assistants built on state-of-the-art natural-language models, for example, have become the interface for many financial institutions, health-care providers, and government agencies. Without a genuine understanding of language, these systems are more prone to fail, slowing access to important services.
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Subscribe to MIT Technology Review. Subscribe today The researchers built off the work of the Winograd Schema Challenge, a test created in 2011 to evaluate the common-sense reasoning of NLP systems. The challenge uses a set of 273 questions involving pairs of sentences that are identical except for one word. That word, known as a trigger, flips the meaning of each sentence’s pronoun, as seen in the example below:
The trophy doesn’t fit into the brown suitcase because it’s too large. The trophy doesn’t fit into the brown suitcase because it’s too small. To succeed, an NLP system must figure out which of two options the pronoun refers to. In this case, it would need to select “trophy” for the first and “suitcase” for the second to correctly solve the problem.
The test was originally designed with the idea that such problems couldn’t be answered without a deeper grasp of semantics. State-of-the-art deep-learning models can now reach around 90% accuracy, so it would seem that NLP has gotten closer to its goal. But in their paper, which will receive the Outstanding Paper Award at next month’s AAAI conference, the researchers challenge the effectiveness of the benchmark and, thus, the level of progress that the field has actually made.
They created a significantly larger data set, dubbed WinoGrande, with 44,000 of the same types of problems. To do so, they designed a crowdsourcing scheme to quickly create and validate new sentence pairs. (Part of the reason the Winograd data set is so small is that it was hand-crafted by experts.) Workers on Amazon Mechanical Turk created new sentences with required words selected through a randomization procedure. Each sentence pair was then given to three additional workers and kept only if it met three criteria: at least two workers selected the correct answers, all three deemed the options unambiguous, and the pronoun’s references couldn’t be deduced through simple word associations.
As a final step, the researchers also ran the data set through an algorithm to remove as many “artifacts” as possible—unintentional data patterns or correlations that could help a language model arrive at the right answers for the wrong reasons. This reduced the chance that a model could learn to game the data set.
When they tested state-of-the-art models on these new problems, performance fell to between 59.4% and 79.1%. By contrast, humans still reached 94% accuracy. This means a high score on the original Winograd test is likely inflated. “It’s just a data-set-specific achievement, not a general-task achievement,” says Yejin Choi, an associate professor at the University of Washington and a senior research manager at AI2, who led the research.
Choi hopes the data set will serve as a new benchmark. But she also hopes it will inspire more researchers to look beyond deep learning. The results emphasized to her that true common-sense NLP systems must incorporate other techniques, such as structured knowledge models. Her previous work has shown significant promise in this direction. “We somehow need to find a different game plan,” she says.
The paper has received some criticism. Ernest Davis, one of the researchers who worked on the original Winograd challenge, says that many of the example sentence pairs listed in the paper are “seriously flawed,” with confusing grammar. “They don't correspond to the way that people speaking English actually use pronouns,” he wrote in an email.
But Choi notes that truly robust models shouldn’t need perfect grammar to understand a sentence. People who speak English as a second language sometimes mix up their grammar but still convey their meaning.
“Humans can easily understand what our questions are about and select the correct answer,” she says, referring to the 94% performance accuracy. “If humans should be able to do that, my position is that machines should be able to do that too.”
Mar. 24, 2020 10:03 AM ETBIL, DDM, DFVL...27 Comments39 Likes Summary
With the Fed's balance sheet set to expand towards $10 trillion, the Federal deficit to balloon to $4 trillion, it is "all hands on deck" to stop the next "Great Depression" before it takes hold. The current bear market is exhibiting many of the same "technical traits" as seen in both the "Dot.com" and "Financial Crisis." The new mantra for the market, for the time being, will be to "Sell Rallies" rather than "Buy The Dip." Let's flashback to a time not so long ago, May 2019.
"It was interesting to see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, during an address to the Fernandina Beach banking conference, channel Ben Bernanke during his speech on corporate 'sub-prime' debt (aka leveraged loans.)
'Many commentators have observed with a sense of déjà vu the buildup of risky business debt over the past few years. The acronyms have changed a bit-'CLOs' (collateralized loan obligations) instead of 'CDOs' (collateralized debt obligations), for example - but once again, we see a category of debt that is growing faster than the income of the borrowers even as lenders loosen underwriting standards. Likewise, much of the borrowing is financed opaquely, outside the banking system. Many are asking whether these developments pose a new threat to financial stability.
In public discussion of this issue, views seem to range from 'This is a rerun of the subprime mortgage crisis' to 'Nothing to worry about here.' At the moment, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle. To preview my conclusions, as of now, business debt does not present the kind of elevated risks to the stability of the financial system that would lead to broad harm to households and businesses should conditions deteriorate.' - Jerome Powell, May 2019
In other words, corporate debt is 'contained.'"
As we concluded at that time:
"Unfortunately, while Jerome Powell may be currently channeling Ben Bernanke to keep markets stabilized momentarily, the real risk is some unforeseen exogenous event, such as Deutsche Bank going bankrupt, that triggers a global credit contagion."
While the "exogenous event" was a "virus," it led to a "credit event" which has crippled markets globally, leading the Federal Reserve to throw everything possible at trying to stem the crisis. With the Fed's balance sheet set to expand towards $10 trillion, the Federal deficit to balloon to $4 trillion, it is "all hands on deck" to stop the next "Great Depression" before it takes hold.
However, this is what we have been warning about:
"Pay attention to the market. There action this year is very reminiscent of previous market topping processes. Tops are hard to identify during the process as 'change happens slowly. 'The mainstream media, economists, and Wall Street will dismiss pickup in volatility as simply a corrective process. But when the topping process completes, it will seem as if the change occurred 'all at once.'
The same media which told you 'not to worry,' will now tell you 'no one could have seen it coming.'"
The only question which remains to be answered is whether the MORE debt and monetary stimulus can fix a debt and monetary stimulus bubble?
In other words, can the Fed inflate the fourth bubble to offset the implosion of the third?
Think about the insanity of that statement, but that is what the markets, and the economy, are banking on.
We do expect that, with the flood of fiscal and monetary stimulus, a "bear market rally" becomes a real probability, at least in the short term.
How big of a rally? What should you do? These are the important points in today's missive.
The One Thing The "ONE Thing" you need to do TODAY, right now, is "accept" where you are.
What you had, what was lost, and the mistakes you made, CANNOT be corrected. They are in the past. However, by hanging on to those "emotions," we lock ourselves out of the ability to take actions that will begin the corrective process.
Let me dispel some myths:
"Hope" is not an investment strategy. Hanging on to some stock you lost money in waiting for it to "get back to even," costs you opportunity.
You aren't a loser. Whatever happened previously is over, and it doesn't make you a "loser." However, staying in losing positions or strategies will continue to cost you.
Selling does NOT lock in losses. The losses have already occurred. Selling, however, gives you the ability to take advantage of "opportunity" to begin the recovery process.
Okay, now that we have the right "mindset," let's take an educated guess on what happens next.
The current bear market is exhibiting many of the same "technical traits" as seen in both the "Dot.com" and "Financial Crisis."
In each previous case, the market experienced a parabolic advance to the initial peak. A correction ensued, which was dismissed by the mainstream media, and investors alike, as just a "pause that refreshes." They were seemingly proved correct as the markets rebounded shortly thereafter and even set all-time highs. Investors, complacent in the belief that "this time was different" (1999 - a new paradigm, 2007 - Goldilocks economy), continued to hold out hopes the bull market was set to continue.
That was a mistake.
Also, in each period, once the monthly "sell signal" was triggered from a high level, the ensuing correction process took months to complete. This not only reset the market, but valuations as well. In both previous periods, reflexive rallies occurred, which eventually failed. While the 2008 plunge following the Lehman crisis was most similar to the current environment, there was a brief rally following the passage of TARP, which sucked investors in before the additional 22% decline in the first two months of 2009.
Most importantly, the market got very oversold early in both previous bear markets, and stayed that way for the entirety of the bear market. Currently, the market has only just now gotten to a similar oversold condition.
What all the indicators currently suggest is that, while the current correction has been swift and brutal, bear markets are not resolved in a single month.
This is going to take some time.
Bear Market Rally Over the past couple of weeks, we have been talking about a potential reflexive bounce.
From a purely technical basis, the extreme downside extension, and potential selling exhaustion, has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive bounce. This is where fun with math comes in.
As shown in the chart below, after a 35% decline in the markets from the previous highs, a rally to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would encompass a 20% advance. Such an advance will "lure" investors back into the market, thinking the "bear market" is over.
This is what "bear market rallies" do and generally inflict the most pain possible on unwitting investors. The reasons for this are many, but primarily investors who were trapped in the recent decline will use the rally to "flee" the markets permanently.
Chart Updated Through Monday
More importantly, as noted above, "bear markets" are not resolved in a single month. Currently, there are too many investors trying to figure out where "the bottom" is, so they can "buy" it.
Bear markets do not end in optimism; they end in despair.
Looking back at 2008, numerous indicators suggest the "bear market" has only just begun. While this does NOT rule out a fairly strong reflexive rally, it suggests that any rally will ultimately fail as the bear market completes its cycle.
This can be seen more clearly in the monthly chart below, which looks at both previous bull and bear markets using a Fibonacci retracement. As shown, from the peak of both previous bull market "bubbles," the market reversed 61.8% of the advance during the "Dot.com" crash, and more than 100% of the advance during the "Financial Crisis."
Given the current bull market cycle was longer, more levered, and more extended than both previous bull markets, a 38.2% decline is unlikely to fulfill the requirements of this reversion. Our ultimate target of 1600-1800 on the S&P 500 remains confirmed by the quarterly chart below.
The current correction process has only just triggered a quarterly sell signal combined with a break from an extreme deviation of the long-term bull-trend back to the 1930s. Both previous bull market peaks coincide with the long-term bull trend at about 1600 on the S&P currently. Given all the stimulus being infused into the markets currently, we broaden our bear market bottom target to 1600-1800, as noted.
The technical signals, which do indeed lag short-term turns in the market, all confirm the "bear market" is only just awakening. While bullish reflexive rallies are very likely, and should be used to your advantage, this is a "traders" market for the time being.
In other words, the new mantra for the market, for the time being, will be to "Sell Rallies" rather than "Buy The Dip."
As I have noted many times previously:
"This 'time is not different,' and there will be few investors that truly have the fortitude to 'ride out' the next decline.
Everyone eventually sells. The only difference is 'selling when you want to,' versus 'selling when you have to.'"
Yes, the market will rally, and likely substantially so. Just don't forget to take action, make changes, and get on the right side of the trade, before the "bear returns."
Let me conclude by reminding you of Bob Farrell's Rule #8 from our recent newsletter:
Bear markets have three stages - sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline.
After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline.
The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate.
Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between.
The chart above shows the stages of the last two primary cyclical bear markets versus today (the 2020 scale has been adjusted to match.)
As would be expected, the "Phase 1" selloff has been brutal.
That selloff sets up a "reflexive bounce." For many individuals, they will "feel like" they are "safe." This is how "bear market rallies" lure investors back in just before they are mauled again in "Phase 3."
Just like in 2000, and 2008, the media/Wall Street will be telling you to just "hold on." Unfortunately, by the time "Phase 3" was finished, there was no one wanting to "buy" anything.
美國股市上周繼續受到新冠肺炎疫情衝擊而大跌，展望本周，首要焦點將是經濟數據，因為將反映疫情對全球經濟的衝擊程度。同時，多國政府與央行如何進一步推出措施，紓緩疫情的衝擊，也是令人關注的。
市場人士相信，本周首要焦點是先後公布的美國、歐盟與英國等地採購經理指數(PMI)。PMI調查傳統上是在每月的下半月進行，而預覽值則是在正式公布前一周發表。下周公布的PMI將反映全球國家各行業受到疫情衝擊的程度。
另外，美國周四公布的首次申領失業救助人數，勢必反映勞動市場受到衝擊程度，也是市場焦點所在。高盛估計，申領人數將達致紀錄新高的225萬人。
第二個焦點，是美國國會與政府商議中的救市措施能否很快落實。美國共和民主兩黨仍然蹉商總值逾1萬億美元的新一輪救市措施，以紓緩疫情衝擊。
白宮經濟顧問庫德洛預期，救市措施總值將達1.3至1.4萬億美元水平。連同聯儲局與政府早前實施的措施，白宮期望救市措施可對美國經濟產生2萬億美元效果。
第三個焦點，是市場流動資金緊絀的紓緩程度。聯儲局上周五與其他五國央行達成美元掉期安排，目的是化解市場流動資金緊絀情況。因為面對疫情況衝擊，各國推出刺激經濟措施，最終涉及美元的供求，美元流動資金是否充裕，是救市措施成敗的關鍵，因此，市場人士將關注流動資金有否紓緩。
第四個焦點，是美國股票價值情況明朗化。美國股市上周持續大跌，估值可能已跌至具吸引力水平。根據Refinitiv數據，標準普爾500指數上周三已降至預期市盈率14.2倍水平，遠低於2月時的逾19倍水平。
不過，到底美國企業的盈利受到疫情打擊的程度有多大，依然是未知之數。本周，Nike、美光科技與KB Home等公布業績，將對此有揭示作用。
第五個焦點，是新興市場股市表現。新興市場上周出現大幅下滑10%走勢，美元強勢、經濟前景暗淡與油價大跌均是原因之一。
投資者將關注有關情況本周是否依然持續下去，抑或六央行聯手措施可穩定美滙，紓緩新興市場跌勢。
2002年7月，我在立法會發言反對《聯合國（反恐怖主義措施）條例草案》，不單止因為草案本身百孔千瘡，同時我認為反恐條例是23條立法的前奏和熱身。不要盲目相信政府說這條例只是用來落實聯合國的決議，只用來對付恐怖主義份子；要看條文給予政府什麼權力。我說：「這些新增權力，同樣可隨時用以對付無辜的人。諷刺的是，在香港這樣一個開放社會，最終不是毀於恐怖主義襲擊，而是毀於未經清醒而仔細的思考，便草率匆匆通過的反恐怖主義法例。」
同年11月，其時23條立法諮詢文件已出，我察覺立法建議多處構思以至行文與7月通過的反恐條例相同。我在本報的專欄質問：政府應否採取對付恐怖活動的手法防止顛覆？世上有哪個國家以反恐的手法處理叛國罪？今天，說得白些，就是哪個政府會視反對政府的人為恐怖主義份子，用對待恐怖主義份子的逾越法治的手法對待國民？當然，今天已有答案。
警務處長鄧炳強在訪問中稱說，正同律政司研究以反恐條例檢控年初發生的3宗爆炸品案。有關條文（第11B條及14（7A）條）是2004年所加入的，其宗旨是在本地立法使聯合國《制止恐怖主義爆炸的國際公約》得以實施（見長題）。換句話說，雖然與香港法例第200章第53條同是針對爆炸罪行，但前者目標專為打擊恐怖主義，而不是普通罪行。所以政府就要先將「恐怖主義份子」、「恐怖主義行為」的標籤加諸有關的被告人的身上。
為何鄧炳強這麼興致勃勃呢？不是尋求更高刑罰，因為兩項法例之下的最高刑罰同是終身監禁。最大的分別在於兩點。第一是反恐條例的爆炸罪名範圍廣：非法而故意「送遞、放置、發射」任何爆炸品已可入罪，但刑事罪行條例第53條必須非法及惡意藉爆炸品「導致爆炸」方能入罪。（但另方面，反恐條例的爆炸罪名限於「針對訂明標的」──例如基建、政府設施等，不知警務處長是否合用。）
更重大的分別是，刑事罪行條例的罪名只針對被告人，但反恐條例之下，只要涉及該條例的罪名，保安局局長、律政司司長、警方便可以得到極大範圍之內的調查權、搜查權、檢走物件、凍結財產、逼第三者回答查問、交出資料等等。反恐條例絕大部分不是用來懲處「恐怖主義份子」的「恐怖主義行為」的，而是賦予政府權力，針對與政府有「合理懷疑」「恐怖主義份子有關聯的人與財產，單方面向法庭申請。用恐怖主義條例對付市民，針對的是疑為相關的組織、個人、財產、資源，視國民為恐怖主義份子，千方百計擴大株連，真的教人鄙視。
Once enough people get Covid-19, it will stop spreading on its own. But the costs will be devastating.
by Antonio Regalado Mar 17, 2020 aerial of crowd GETTY
There are basically three ways to stop the Covid-19 disease for good. One involves extraordinary restrictions on free movement and assembly, as well as aggressive testing, to interrupt its transmission entirely. That may be impossible now that the virus is in over 100 countries. The second is a vaccine that could protect everyone, but it still needs to be developed.
A third is potentially effective but horrible to consider: just wait until enough people get it.
If the virus keeps spreading, eventually so many people will have been infected and (if they survive) become immune that the outbreak will fizzle out on its own as the germ finds it harder and harder to find a susceptible host. This phenomenon is known as herd immunity.
You can read all our coverage of the coronavirus/Covid-19 outbreak for free, and also sign up for our coronavirus newsletter. But please consider subscribing to support our nonprofit journalism.
Wide, unstoppable spread of the coronavirus is exactly an outcome experts are modeling in their worst-case scenarios. They say that given what they know about the virus, it could end up infecting about 60% of the world’s population, even within the year.
Those figures aren’t a random guess. They are informed by the point at which epidemiologists say herd immunity should kick in for this particular virus.
Last week the herd immunity idea blew up in the headlines after UK prime minister Boris Johnson indicated that country’s official strategy might be to put on a stiff upper lip and let the disease run its course. The chief science adviser to the UK government, Patrick Vallance, said the country needed to “build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission.”
Yesterday, the prime minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, struck a similar note, saying, “We can slow down the spread of the virus while at the same time building group immunity in a controlled way.”
But shooting for herd immunity right away would be a disastrous strategy, according to the newest models. That’s because so many people will become severely ill—and a sudden boom in sick people needing hospital or ICU care will overwhelm hospitals. The UK this week signaled it would instead do more to suppress the virus, including discouraging gatherings. Slowing it down would mean health systems could be spared and lives saved, but ultimately the result could be the same. That is, even if the pandemic is drawn out over time, it may still take herd immunity to bring it to an end.
As Matt Hancock, the UK Secretary for health and social care, clarified after criticism of the UK government: “Herd immunity is not our goal or policy. It’s a scientific concept.”
But what exactly is herd immunity? When enough of the population is resistant to a germ, its spread stops naturally because not enough people are able to transmit it. Thus, the “herd” is immune, even though many individuals within it still are not.
Although it is ghastly to contemplate the prospect of billions being infected by the coronavirus, which has an estimated fatality rate per infection somewhere around 1% (pdf) (that too is uncertain, and the fatality rate of cases rushed to the hospital is higher), we’ve seen evidence for the emergence of herd immunity in other recent outbreaks.
How herd immunity can stop a virus Herd immunity In a simple model of an outbreak, each case infects two more, creating an exponential increase in disease. But once half the population is immune, an outbreak no longer grows in size. Consider the Zika virus, a mosquito-borne illness that caused a epidemic panic in 2015 because of a link to birth abnormalities.
Two years later, in 2017, there was no longer nearly so much to worry about. A Brazilian study found by checking blood samples that 63% of the population in the northeastern beach city of Salvador had already had exposure to Zika; the researchers speculated that herd immunity had broken that outbreak.
Vaccines create herd immunity too, either when given widely or sometimes when administered in a “ring” around a new case of a rare infection. That’s how diseases like smallpox were eradicated and why polio is close to being erased. Various vaccine efforts are under way for this coronavirus, but they may not be ready for more than a year.
Even then, vaccine makers can find themselves in a losing race with nature to see which protects the herd first. That’s in part what happened in 2017, when drug maker Sanofi quietly abandoned a Zika vaccine in development after funding dried up: there simply wasn’t much of a market any longer.
The coronavirus is new, so it doesn’t appear that anyone is immune to it: that’s what lets it spread and why it can have such severe effects in some people.
For herd immunity to take hold, people must become resistant after they are infected. That occurs with many germs: people who are infected and recover become resistant to getting that disease again, because their immune system is charged with antibodies able to defeat it.
coronavirus vs flu image of coffee mug tissues bedside table influenza The World Health Organization has released a report outlining the differences between the flu and coronavirus.
There are some obvious similarities:
They both spread by contact. Touching a contaminated person or surface and then touching your face is a surefire way to get sick. (It is also possible that Covid-19 can be spread via droplets in the air from an infected person’s cough or sneeze.)
Many of the symptoms are similar: They both target the respiratory system, and in varying ways. Both cause fevers, tiredness and coughing. Severe respiratory cases can become pneumonia, which can kill.
This story is part of our ongoing coverage of the coronavirus/Covid-19 outbreak. You can also sign up to our dedicated newsletter.
Here are six differences between coronavirus and the flu:
— Coronavirus appears to spread more slowly than the flu. This is probably the biggest difference between the two. The flu has a shorter incubation period (the time it takes for an infected person to show symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (or the time between successive cases). Coronavirus’s serial interval is around five to six days, while flu’s gap between cases is more like three days, the WHO says. So flu still spreads more quickly.
— Shedding: Viral shedding is what happens when a virus has infected a host, has reproduced, and is now being released into the environment. It is what makes a patient infectious. Some people start shedding the coronavirus within two days of contracting it, and before they show symptoms, although this probably isn’t the main way it is spreading, the WHO says. (However, one non-peer-reviewed article this week also suggests that coronavirus patients are shedding huge amounts of the virus in these early stages, when they have either no symptoms or just mild ones.) The flu virus typically sheds in the first two days after symptoms start, and this can last for up to a week. But a study in the Lancet this week, which looked at patients in China, showed that survivors were still shedding the coronavirus for around 20 days (or until death). One was still shedding at 37 days, while the shortest time detected was eight days. This suggests coronavirus patients remain contagious for much longer than those with flu.
— Secondary infections. As if contracting coronavirus wasn’t bad enough, it leads to about two more secondary infections on average. The flu can sometimes cause a secondary infection, usually pneumonia, but it’s rare for a flu patient to get two infections after the flu. The WHO warned that context is key (someone who contracts coronavirus might already have been fighting another condition, for example).
— Don’t blame snotty kids—adults are passing coronavirus around. While kids are the primary culprits for flu transmission, this coronavirus seems to be passed between adults. That also means adults are getting hit hardest—especially those who are older and have underlying medical conditions. Experts are baffled as to why kids seem protected from the worst effects of the coronavirus, according to the Washington Post. Some say they might already have some immunity from other versions of the coronavirus that appear in the common cold; another theory is that kids’ immune systems are always on high alert and might simply be faster than adults’ in battling Covid-19.
— Coronavirus is far deadlier than the flu. Thus far, the mortality rate for coronavirus (the number of reported cases divided by the number of deaths) is around 3% to 4%, although it’s likely to be lower because many cases have not yet been reported. The flu’s rate is 0.1%.
— There is no cure or vaccine for the coronavirus. Not yet, anyway, although work is under way. There is, however, a flu vaccine—and everyone should get it, not least because being vaccinated could help lessen the load on overstretched medical services in the coming weeks.
Regulatory changes and anxiety heightened by isolation are leading to a boom in use of mental health apps and teletherapy—but are they good enough? by Tanya Basu Mar 20, 2020 coronavirus mental health hand reaching out phone screen into blue background app teletherapy talkspace headspace meditation hipaa abletotorous MS TECH / SOURCE: GETTY; HANDICON/NOUN PROJECT
The coronavirus outbreak has forced millions of us to isolate ourselves, sometimes even within the same house, from those we interact with every day: coworkers, friends, family, pets. Combine that with existential fear and a looming unknown future, and it’s understandable that anxiety is high.
No wonder, then, that, in the past month mental health apps—ranging from meditation and wellness helpers like Headspace and Sanvello to teletherapy platforms like Talkspace—have seen spikes in use.
Headspace’s chief science officer, Megan Jones Bell, says the number of users looking for specific content on stress has doubled. The company has launched a free set of meditations called “Weathering the Storm,” made specifically for dealing with the crisis.
You can read all our coverage of the coronavirus/Covid-19 outbreak for free, and also sign up for our coronavirus newsletter. But please consider subscribing to support our nonprofit journalism.
Mental health app Sanvello has responded similarly, releasing its premium content for free. Monika Roots, Sanvello’s chief medical officer, says the app’s mood tracker started seeing “mentions” of the words “Covid-19” or “coronavirus” on January 22, the day President Trump told CNBC the virus was “totally under control.” By February 16, “mentions of it [coronavirus] were up 157% a week [from the week before],” Roots says. “By the last week of February, they were up 509%. And by the week of March 9, mentions were up 605% from the week previous.”
Meanwhile, Amy Cirbus, a New York–based therapist who offers services through Talkspace, says her user volume is up 25% since last month, which she attributes to coronavirus fears. “People are concerned about how this will affect them and their families as well as dealing with a new norm and social isolation,” she says.
Changes in regulations are also making it easier for people to access mental health care online. Earlier this week, the US Department of Health and Human Services relaxed constraints that had previously made it nearly impossible to meet digitally with a doctor because of privacy concerns under the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA). That could be a game changer, even once the current pandemic has subsided
“I think this will fundamentally change how people see telehealth broadly,” says Reena Pande, the chief medical offier of AbleTo, a teletherapy platform that counts over 700 clinicians across the US. She says that in the past week, requests to connect with a professional have increased 25%.
But while mental health apps make advice and care easier to access, are they as good as traditional in-person counseling? “These apps help augment care or extend it,” says John Torous, the director of digital psychiatry at the Harvard-affiliated Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. “When they’re used as standalone tools as single interventions, there’s good evidence from meta-analyses that they might not be as effective, or not enough as treatment alone.”
A 2012 study in JAMA found that patients who got over-the-phone cognitive behavioral therapy and those who met with a therapist face to face both saw improvements in depression, but with some differences. While more of the telephone therapy group stuck with therapy, a higher proportion of them had slipped back into depression six months later. The face-to-face group had a slightly lower rate of sticking to therapy but was more resilient.
Another issue is that it’s difficult for consumers to have confidence in how effective an app might be. Many mental health apps market themselves by citing scientific studies. “But these studies are often of lower quality, like comparing apples to oranges,” Torous says. That’s not to say that the apps are harmful, but the marketing might overpromise. A 2019 study in the Journal of Medical Internet Research found that less than 2% of app makers’ claims were evidence-based, and that more than 50% of claims about easing anxiety or depression could not be substantiated. “A lot of them say they’re based on cognitive behavioral therapy,” he says. “But we don’t know how they’re translating that. It’s like saying ‘If you love the books, the movie is going to be great!’”
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Nevertheless, the relaxation of HIPAA rules around privacy means apps are uniquely poised to make a dent in mental health care. It should make teletherapy more attractive not only for consumers but for providers, potentially widening access.
And there is some evidence that apps with a human being at the other end can be pretty effective. The 2019 study found that when an app involved therapy or other interaction with another person, engagement rates rose, and people found more benefit than if they simply listened to a recording or tracked their mood, says Torous.
It’s still unclear what the future of mental health care will be in a world where self-isolation might last months and the only way we can connect with others is via a digital device. Smartphones aren’t just a potential gateway to mental health care; they could also radically transform what it means to go to the doctor’s office.
What is clear is that the relaxation of HIPAA constraints could lead someone who might not otherwise have been comfortable seeking mental health care to do so through a digital device for the first time. At such a stressful time, that might be enough.
“I think this could be the moment in the history of psychiatry where we’ll see people increase their access to mental health care,” Torous says.
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2016 AT 8:56AM Patreon recently snagged $30 Million in funding. It seems the model of pledging $1 for individual feature releases or code changes won't support fast enough growth. CEO Jack Conte says: We need to bring in so many people so fast. We need to keep up with hiring and keep up with making all of the things.
Since HighScalability is giving Patreon a try I've naturally wondered how it's built. Modulo some serious security issues Patreon has always worked well. So I was interested to dig up this nugget in a thread on the funding round where the Director of Engineering at Patreon shares a little about how Patreon works:
Server is in Python using Flask and SQLAlchemy, Runs on AWS (EC2, RDS (MySQL), and some Redis, Celery, SQS, etc. to boot). A few microservices here and there in other languages too (e.g. real time chat server with Node & Firebase) Web code is written in React (with some legacy code in Angular). We tend to use Redux for the non-component pieces, but are still trying out new React-compatible libraries here and there. iOS and Android code are written in Objective-C and Java, respectively. We use Realm on both platforms for data storage Most of the rest is pretty standard modern project stuff (CocoaPods for iOS, Gradle on Android, etc.) For this time period it seems like a good set of technologies to use for the type of application Patreon is. It's interesting to see Angular as referred to as legacy code. React seems to be winning the framework wars.
The use of Realm is notable on the mobile platform as a common storage layer. Realm's simplicity is attractive.
The use of microservices may have helped Patreon dodge the Parse closing down bullet. Instead of trying to find one backend to rule them all they picked Firebase, a more targeted technology, to implement a specific feature. Service diversification is a great way to manage service failure risk.
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宜家叫咩閨蜜:o)xx(xx(xx( Friend底係咪都無人再講#bye# 老死 Fd過夾band 孖公仔 糖黐豆 3 0
英國屬土公民 • 7h 好in 好yeah 2 0
松鼠媽媽 • 7h kai子 我仲用緊 8 0
Magneto • 7h 死黨#yup#
宜家叫咩閨蜜:o)xx(xx(xx( 死黨 for 仔多啲？
女通常叫開「好姊妹」？ 3 0 1
邊個用左個名 • 7h 你阿媽個波罩你呀 1 0 1
向左向埋右 引用 #7 大陸仔
吹bearbear • 7h 顯示更多 講咩耶穌變講經咩 宜家90後變撚左呢句濕9野 i dont know 食鬆糕 食完鬆糕見耶穌 耶穌教我唸聖經 我教耶穌唸馬經 耶穌話我唔正經 我話耶穌發神經#hehe# 聖誕老人 終身監禁 騎着鹿車去殺人 耶穌搵我笨 耶穌搵老襯 耶穌搵我三千蚊 5 0 1
開劑藥過你好冇 賓周
向左向埋右 傻西瓜
花濺淚 • 7h 屎忽撞棍:) 我成日講xx( 1 0
想食藍血饅頭 引用 #8 掃頭
深海魚絲 • 7h 潛水怕屈機 呢個term係考評局柒xx( 2 0 1
WARS收容失效 • 7h 吞pok 蛇王 揸流攤 省鏡 花靚ken 車大炮 骨子 唔係失傳，不過少聽咗 4 1
經過那些年 • 7h 死黨#yup#
宜家叫咩閨蜜:o)xx(xx(xx( 死黨 for 仔多啲？
女通常叫開「好姊妹」？ 好姊妹唔及死黨咁fd
女仔都可以叫得死黨O:-) 0 0
深海魚絲 • 6h 堅過石堅 珍珠都冇咁真;-) 0 0
朴寶劍有情 • 6h 臭檔=臭雞
睇粵語殘片學返黎:o):o) 0 0
深海魚絲 引用 #102 坐監？
SamWilson 做乜徑
深海魚絲 • 6h 條條fing 0 0
簡而西 • 6h 東方之珠 1 0
Graviton • 6h 撚一條柒一碌 0 0
寇比力克 • 6h 顯示 #1 手提下話？ 0 0
深海魚絲 世界仔 第 8 頁
摸住鳩 木嘴
WARS收容失效 • 6h 掟煲#bye#pig 0 0 1
西門八字開 • 6h 和尚寺、詩姑庵形容單性學校 2 0
𨳒你無良老闆 • 6h 第三者 袋 1 0
深海魚絲 • 6h 其實打埋個意思出黎好似好d 1 0
孫一 架步
摸住鳩 • 6h 好籮 唔知幾時俾柒字取代左[sosad] 籮臭～～～ 17 0 2
摸住鳩 • 6h 好摩登[sosad][sosad][sosad] 1 0
• 6h 好yeah 0 0
猜猜情尋RR頭痕 • 6h 顯示更多 i dont know 食鬆糕 食完鬆糕見耶穌 耶穌教我唸聖經 我教耶穌唸馬經 耶穌話我唔正經 我話耶穌發神經#hehe# 聖誕老人 終身監禁 騎着鹿車去殺人 耶穌搵我笨 耶穌搵老襯 耶穌搵我三千蚊 孫中山 孫中山 跌左落屎坑 4 0 1
初春 • 6h 踎躉 應該無人知點解 用唔啱規距既方法獲得優勢? 踎躉，或寫作踎墩、踎登，發音都係踎"登"而唔係踎"等" 踎墩，意指失業、無工開。「踎」，讀音mau1，意指蹲下。「墩」，讀名deon1，意指由沙堆成的高丘或墊物的基礎。「踎墩」一詞原是對搬運苦力的稱呼。在早期香港，失業的男人會聚在碼頭，並蹲在縛船纜的矮柱上等工頭聘請他們。因此人們便稱這班搬運苦力為「踎墩」。後來「踎墩」一詞引伸為形容失業的情況。 許冠傑哥哥許冠英(已故)在七十年代有一首流行曲「發錢寒」，歌詞其中有一句「最忌無銀一家要踎躉」。 4 0 1
俞頌豪(神槍手) • 6h 好籮 唔知幾時俾柒字取代左[sosad] 籮臭～～～ 有浸籮味傳入我的鼻，傳入我的肺部臭到就黎死#play#pig 3 1
Jaime_Lannister • 6h 裙腳仔 遊艇仔 二奶:o) 裙腳仔有個蝗語版叫媽寶xx(:o) 媽寶好似台灣先會用#oh# 一google已經見到百度xx(:o) https://baike.baidu.com/item/妈宝男 0 0
張元鷹(禿頭) 牙煙
中科監察 係咁先
真正香港人 • 6h 「行動貼」請大家用閒置電腦，手機add play list loop 自己人的片,入去睇30 秒!thx YouTube 文宣戰線已經開始 大量共狗YouTuber已經入侵YouTube 為了反抗共狗YouTuber 請大家幫忙訂閱！要人！要人！
https://youtu.be/sPL9CRt0834 0 0
石榴姐 • 6h 撚化:P 第一次聽到係喺難兄難弟[sosad] 0 0
韋拿踢法似我 凍柑
笑聲笑聲滿載丁丁 引用 #15 油瓶仔
大小姐龍力蓮 乸西
DQ博士何已完 • 6h kai子 之前同班frd講呢個term佢哋唔知點解#haha#dog 0 1
山下弱智狗 老連
經過那些年 O:-)
垃圾小叉 • 6h 你都冇興！ 0 0 1
Hitomi1006
第 9 頁
PatPat有毛 醒字派
PatPat有毛 • 6h 屎忽撞棍:) 嗰日先聽個friend講 0 0
PatPat有毛 羅拔仔
PatPat有毛 • 6h 地獄黑仔王 0 0
IamJason 引用 #64 Lag
涒娜 • 6h 牛逼 skr 666 ( Show Blocked User - 廢清🚬 ) 7 0 2
PatPat有毛 蒲
戀愛時讓中出日結 大隻講
除暴go • 6h 好籮 唔知幾時俾柒字取代左[sosad] 有陣𤓓味傳入我個鼻 44 1 3
總站有落 • 6h 警察 正義 法治 幾時講過冇法治#haha#dog 戴耀庭都要鞭？ 5 0 2
光復水蕉老圍 沙陳
收你為師 • 6h 顯示更多 濕滯冇失傳到[sosad] 講咩耶穌變講經咩 宜家90後變撚左呢句濕9野 i dont know 食鬆糕 食完鬆糕見耶穌 耶穌教我唸聖經 我教耶穌唸馬經 耶穌話我唔正經 我話耶穌發神經#hehe# 以前真係好多啲啲打油詩
未夠十八歲學人揸飛機 跳落坑渠執玻璃 番到屋企唔憤氣 阿媽以為漏煤氣..... 3 0 1
總站有落 • 6h 好籮 唔知幾時俾柒字取代左[sosad] 籮臭～～～ 仲要加個撥鼻手勢 2 0
LifeIsHopeless • 6h 民主 自由 香港人 第一個有存在過咩？[sosad] 0 0
二千蚊 爆珠
今日係聽日既琴日 • 5h 囧:o) 胡杏兒#yup#
我記得有gifO:-) 0 0 1
告士打道西行 • 5h 大早
以前d人好鐘意講"我大早咪同你講左囉" 3 0 1
真俊華 • 5h 囧:o) 呢個字好似源於支那 1 1 1
流星下的願 • 5h 塞豆窿 二叔公 量地官 踎躉 撚化 燕梳 唔啱牙 1 0
啲啲金鈎痺 • 5h 臭B 吹牙？ 0 0
蛋撻哥哥 • 5h 民主 自由 香港人 最尾嗰樣冇失傳 3 0
3e精兵盡中出 • 5h 熱狗 無冷氣既巴士 0 0
tca1200 • 5h 又係天水圍 0 0
蛋撻哥哥 • 5h 耳筒O:-) 幾時失傳？
?????_?
到而家仲用緊 0 0
祝君安好 • 5h O嘴 堅系 跳掣 0 1 第 10 頁
碧咸大仔 痴閪鶴
最燈蕭析 • 5h 囧:o) 呢個字好似源於支那 wiki就話台傳港 再傳支
4 0
白頭佬(唔做主席) • 5h 警察 正義 法治 幾時講過冇法治#haha#dog 戴耀庭都要鞭？ 幅圖我第一次係喺輔仁個網見到#:)#dog 0 0
弱智大儒 • 5h leg 機 Lag 有班人係讀leg 0 0 2
最燈蕭析 • 5h 顯示更多 胡杏兒#yup#
我記得有gifO:-)
18 0 2
今日係聽日既琴日 • 5h 顯示更多
我記得有gifO:-)
屌[sosad][sosad][sosad] 0 0
熊貓眼 • 5h 呃我膝頭哥唔食辣椒醬 2 0
啲啲金鈎痺 • 5h 唔据隻揪 0 0
樓主分化撚 • 5h 一國兩制（如果算香港詞語的話） 呢個係笑話 1 0
寄生蟲 • 5h 吓死宝宝了@_@ 宝宝心里苦:-(但宝宝不说:~( 0 7
單魚座 • 5h 皇家香港警察 1 0
紅顏搏命 失豆窿
哈囉人 • 5h 空調 小三 0 2
女農夫 • 5h 請你食兜搥鍋面 1 0
已閱 • 5h 會考 A Level 0 1
慾女舔丁 巴渣
花旗私人銀行客戶 • 5h 警察 正義 法治 幾時講過冇法治#haha#dog 戴耀庭都要鞭？ 送何君堯入立法會唔夠仆街？ 0 0
香港に栄光あれ • 5h 手提 火星文 升呢 十卜 索
或者係高登filter Hi hi Stop la Hi Auntie 傻的嗎 1 0
笑爆我個咀 • 5h 煩過梵蒂岡 0 0
笑爆我個咀 引用 #157 H
羅馬里奧 • 5h 神手 屈機 𤓓臭 屈機都仲有人講 「好屈 屈咗機 」etc
𤓓臭直接用 柒咗 就算:o) 無喇，連登個個用哂屌打 1 1
使用者 • 5h 小三 打造 洋氣 牛逼 傻逼 屌絲 班子 親愛的 親 無事 打車 公車 紅包 你掃我、我掃你？ 0 2
P牌垃圾仔 • 5h 牛逼 skr 666 ( Show Blocked User - 廢清🚬 ) 波台玩膠[sosad]呢d你唔洗理佢 1 0
P牌垃圾仔 • 5h 顯示 #1 契弟？講緊唔係話用黎屌人 :) 0 0
存檔死清光呀 • 5h 警察 正義 法治 自由 公開 透明度 0 1 第 11 頁
海綿體蛋散 • 5h 瓜老襯 花心蘿蔔 0 0
南六月大隊長_ 屈機
萬劫不複 撥個輪
羊肉卡巴 • 5h 肉彈 波霸 油脂仔 死臭飛 0 0
福島富岡町夜ノ森 • 5h 死黨 為食 二奶 0 0
邊個用左個名 • 5h 乜你咁"kwai" (老一輩鬧人壞) 1 0 1
韓國瑜伽 • 5h 牛逼 skr 666 ( Show Blocked User - 廢清🚬 ) 唔洗理佢 條假膠日日刷存在感 :o) 1 0
IamJason • 5h leg 機 Lag 有班人係讀leg E A唔分係香港特色#yup# 0 0
糊辣2小(多芽菜) • 5h 好籮 唔知幾時俾柒字取代左[sosad] 有陣𤓓味傳入我個鼻 一路講呢句 仲會有人扮到好臭聞到隻味咁[sosad][sosad] 4 0
麻吉妹 • 5h 囧樣 0rz 2 0
醉醒醉醒裡漂流 • 5h 躝癱 On居 你咬我食呀 霎On 牙斬斬 嘴Gel Gel 茂利 0 0
blacKKKlansman • 5h 踎躉 應該無人知點解 用唔啱規距既方法獲得優勢? 踎躉，或寫作踎墩、踎登，發音都係踎"登"而唔係踎"等" 踎墩，意指失業、無工開。「踎」，讀音mau1，意指蹲下。「墩」，讀名deon1，意指由沙堆成的高丘或墊物的基礎。「踎墩」一詞原是對搬運苦力的稱呼。在早期香港，失業的男人會聚在碼頭，並蹲在縛船纜的矮柱上等工頭聘請他們。因此人們便稱這班搬運苦力為「踎墩」。後來「踎墩」一詞引伸為形容失業的情況。 許冠傑哥哥許冠英(已故)在七十年代有一首流行曲「發錢寒」，歌詞其中有一句「最忌無銀一家要踎躉」。
解釋得仲多過我
好多人都唔知 真係失傳已舊
我睇《家有囍事》聽毛舜君講 我都唔明點解#haha#dog 0 0
大海不能容 • 5h 灌青 定唔知 貫青 字唔識寫 好似聽人講過關街機之類嘅事 0 0
連登實名制 屈機
blacKKKlansman • 5h 踎躉 應該無人知點解 無野做咁解 類似#yup##good# 0 0
花生忌廉檳 • 5h N年前嘅事啦 0 0
Outyourname 塞荳窿
椰汁仔仔 • 5h 警察 正義 法治 Sad 到喊出嚟 0 2
搭城巴番城大 • 4h 牛逼 skr 666 太 s k r 了 ! 0 4
zion0209 點數卡
傻撚咗個鼻 • 4h 牛逼 skr 666 人如其名:) 0 0
傻撚咗個鼻 • 4h 去邊度wet 1 0
斑蘭蛋糕 • 4h 爛泥扶唔上「壁」 1 0 1
土方 • 4h 污喱單刀 沙呢弄重 2 0
斑蘭蛋糕 • 4h 庹縮，形容人孤寒 賣告白（賣廣告） 1 0 第 12 頁
月が綺麗 • 4h Mok嘴 0 0
黎小田切讓(豬改) 5p仔
刀客．李林 • 4h Dee Dee 0 0
jasontang9 • 4h 北姑[sosad] 變曬新移民:o) 0 0
十字奶茶貓 • 4h 牛逼 skr 666 死大陸仔 0 0
jasontang9 引用 #56 咩黎
鳩拍蠔周打蜆 • 4h 稟神 立懦 柯哥 磨碌 打龍通 食夾棍 打虎頭 鳩知媽碌 躝屍趌路 撩是逗非 吟吟沉沉依依哦哦 3 0
小狗維尼 • 4h 見鬼勿o嘴 潛水怕屈機 0 0
傻強教你分辨黑警 • 4h 牛逼 skr 666 有冇豬逼 ABC 999 ?_? 1 0
jasontang9 • 4h 濕滯 屙拔甩 講耶穌 我老竇果代[sosad] 0 2
傻強教你分辨黑警 • 4h 牛逼 skr 666 有冇「雞逼」？點解一定係要牛？點逼法？ 2 0 1
傻強教你分辨黑警 • 4h 牛逼 skr 666 狗逼得唔得？#???# 1 0
瘦B細隻 • 4h 警察 正義 法治 一國兩際 中西合壁 東西文化 一國兩制呀手足。。。 0 0
香港龜頭警長 • 4h 乎fit :~(:~(:~( 00後：好耐冇聽過呢隻字 耐到唔記得咗點解 2 1 1
外向型內向者 • 4h 顯示更多 濕滯冇失傳到[sosad] 講咩耶穌變講經咩 宜家90後變撚左呢句濕9野 i dont know 食鬆糕 食完鬆糕見耶穌 耶穌教我唸聖經 我教耶穌唸馬經 耶穌話我唔正經 我話耶穌發神經#hehe# 小學之後冇聽過[sosad] 0 0 1
香港龜頭警長 騾氣
香港龜頭警長 • 4h 顯示更多 講咩耶穌變講經咩 宜家90後變撚左呢句濕9野 i dont know 食鬆糕 食完鬆糕見耶穌 耶穌教我唸聖經 我教耶穌唸馬經 耶穌話我唔正經 我話耶穌發神經#hehe# 小學之後冇聽過[sosad] 淨係聽過第一句[sosad][sosad] 0 0
陳冠希影音 • 4h leg 機 Lag 有班人係讀leg 次次聽到都覺得煩 0 0 1
海利多 • 4h 屙哥 屙li吉第 花fit 符fit 曬冧 茅躉 杰撻撻 大檸樂 杏加橙 宅男 2 0
外向型內向者 • 4h 顯示更多 Lag 有班人係讀leg 次次聽到都覺得煩 講緊英文讀lag 講緊廣東話讀leg 1 0
和和氣氣 • 4h 人心。 勤奮。 打不死。 0 0
香港龜頭警長 • 4h 顯示更多 講咩耶穌變講經咩 宜家90後變撚左呢句濕9野 i dont know 食鬆糕 食完鬆糕見耶穌 耶穌教我唸聖經 我教耶穌唸馬經 耶穌話我唔正經 我話耶穌發神經#hehe# 以前真係好多啲啲打油詩
未夠十八歲學人揸飛機 跳落坑渠執玻璃 番到屋企唔憤氣 阿媽以為漏煤氣..... See me fly... 0 0
我高傲但宅心仁厚 • 3h fan屎 (粉絲xx() 短片 (視頻xx() 先生 (老師xx() 2 0 1
我高傲但宅心仁厚 • 3h 警察 正義 法治 呃正評#:)#pig 0 2
大盈若沖 引用 #1 唔係路 第 13 頁
香港龜頭警長 叮噹
海利多 • 3h 媽li媽li空 0 0
人妻哥治 • 3h 打把仔 死飛仔/ 死飛女 _ 到加零一 跳制 何b仔 屎忽大過菠蘿 一碌葛 老虎蟹都制 吹乒乓呀？ 0 0
岀糧買騰訊2020 • 3h 依撈柒 細個聽d 老人家講 咩黎 http://bbs.cantonese.asia/thread-9095-1-1.html 0 0 1
岩士唐英年早洩 • 3h 牛逼 skr 666 係咪得牛逼？
虎逼同龍逼得唔得？
仲有，點解啲牛要咁逼？
2 0
岩士唐英年早洩 • 3h 屈機，麻甩，電聯 1 0
沒有芝麻人是無辜 • 3h 死Kai 竇 淆底獸 咁你肚臍機關制 食塞米大 1 0
愛你一萬年 • 3h 抖糧 凍滾水 抖涼呀下話？ 4 1
邊伯賢條尾 • 3h 好籮 唔知幾時俾柒字取代左[sosad] 有陣𤓓味傳入我個鼻 乜唔係 好大浸𤓓味 傳入我的鼻 咩[sosad] 12 0 1
低調低手 • 3h 你條木咀 0 0
小岡 • 3h 裙腳仔 遊艇仔 二奶:o) 呢個真。個個都小三前小三後。 應該係「油瓶仔」瓶字音讀「pun」（差唔多咁） 但一定唔係遊艇仔（唔好以為係因有錢，富2代 —》二世祖，係因以前「拖油瓶」轉化過嚟，即買一送一） 1 3 1
香港龜頭警長 • 3h 勁抽／堅抽 0 0
男神彭於硬 引用 #230 [sosad]
小岡 • 3h 兵頭花園 依個耐，我亞媽講 0 0
鳩拍蠔周打蜆 • 3h 囉囉攣 雞啄唔斷 腳瓜long 手瓜起腱 兜風耳 西瓜刨 冚旗 埋你單 走走糴糴勞碌奔波 薄洛 姿整 洗衫板 或者 飛機場 公仔佬 走鬼檔 豬dum兜 蛇gue 咪書 啤啤夫 貓咗 診 量地 啄地 甲組腳 1 0
年輕茶餐廳老闆娘 • 3h 好籮 唔知幾時俾柒字取代左[sosad] 有陣𤓓味傳入我個鼻 乜唔係 好大浸𤓓味 傳入我的鼻 咩[sosad] 有聲[sosad][sosad][sosad] 2 0
鳩拍蠔周打蜆 • 3h 裙腳仔 遊艇仔 二奶:o) 呢個真。個個都小三前小三後。 應該係「油瓶仔」瓶字音讀「pun」（差唔多咁） 但一定唔係遊艇仔（唔好以為係因有錢，富2代 —》二世祖，係因以前「拖油瓶」轉化過嚟，即買一送一） 全世界都叫油艇仔喎…… 1 1 3
小岡 • 3h 踎躉 應該無人知點解 無野做咁解 量地 量緊地 量地官 1 0
鳩拍蠔周打蜆 • 3h fan屎 (粉絲xx() 短片 (視頻xx() 先生 (老師xx() 我自己重堅持用「先生」 1 0
瑞士軍刀 • 3h 撥個輪 車大炮 0 0
最憎MK妹 • 3h 濕滯 屙拔甩 講耶穌 頭兩個成日用#hoho#
忽得妹、食咗忽得 老泥妹 正斗 成嚿豬油膏咁
都少聽人講#solution#mouse 2 0 1
Stefan • 3h 顯示 #1 我係中國人呀屌 你係咪癡Q咗線[sosad]你去第二到講 唔好係far right集中地lihkg講啦[sosad] 0 2 1
皇天尻殺 躝癱
邪惡熨斗 • 3h 你個無間道 0 0
瑞士軍刀 • 3h 墨七 文雀 荷包 0 0 第 14 頁
最憎MK妹 • 3h 你都冇興！ 係咪同 你都無解嘅！ 一樣意思?_? 0 0 1
waiwai888 • 3h 係油尖旺上海街呀砵蘭街果D魚蛋檔同XX康樂中心#wet#dog#wet#dog#wet#dog 0 0
Unread • 3h 買板唔知訂 1 0 1
鳩拍蠔周打蜆 • 3h 削 waan1咗 caa5 wo5咗 1 0 1
鳩拍蠔周打蜆 趁地淋
安孝珍多冰 • 3h 付fit 0 0
黃依娘 • 3h 錄音帶:o) 0 0
黃金柴 • 3h kai子 中一二都會講 大個就粗糙啲 傻閪[sosad] 1 0 1
謝安琪實寂寞 引用 #11 :-(
香港人頂住 • 3h 塞豆窿 盲拳打死老師傅 0 0
狗頭閘 • 3h 顯示更多 呢個真。個個都小三前小三後。 應該係「油瓶仔」瓶字音讀「pun」（差唔多咁） 但一定唔係遊艇仔（唔好以為係因有錢，富2代 —》二世祖，係因以前「拖油瓶」轉化過嚟，即買一送一） 全世界都叫油艇仔喎…… 我都係讀油「Pan」仔 1 0
狗頭閘 • 3h 十三點/蒸生瓜 1 0
神仙姐 • 3h kai子 好耐無講 而家講on9[sosad] 0 0
軟酥酥的胸脯 梳乾
Uwants • 3h 乜你咁"kwai" (老一輩鬧人壞) kwai柒 0 0
Ching塵濁水 • 3h 火山孝子 0 0
入江愛美 • 3h 堅過石堅 0 0
E級宅女 • 3h 拎拎查查 0 0
活華特正戇鳩 • 3h kai子 小學成日聽同講，咁就十幾年過去 宜家大咗會直接講on9:-( 1 0 1
福音戒毒 • 3h 事頭婆
告人果時話：「要告到去樞密院！」
嫌人咁遲先講嘅時侯會話：「你唔好97至講！？」 樞密院按察司 真係譯得幾好 本身古代中國官署 咁樣借嚟用 0 0 1
唐宋散文集 • 3h kai子 小學成日聽同講，咁就十幾年過去 宜家大咗會直接講on9:-( 小學覺得on9粗俗好多，kai子可以小朋友講 0 0
Blocked • 3h 「譬如」 宜家啲人全部講「比方說」
1 3 1
宋子傑 引用 #217 [offtopic]
騰完再改 屈機
An9ry • 3h kai子 中一二都會講 大個就粗糙啲 傻閪[sosad] 以前打機會講白木[sosad][sosad] 0 0 1 第 15 頁
英國屬土公民 • 3h 「譬如」 宜家啲人全部講「比方說」
我未聽過有人講「比方說」囉，全世界仲講緊譬如。 5 1 3
三連星 • 3h 包二奶 二世祖 而家真係冇人講二世祖
0 0
An9ry • 3h 打把仔 = 仆街仔 死飛仔/ 死飛女 mk _ 到加零一 柒到你 跳制 何b仔 屎忽大過菠蘿 一碌葛 碌柒咁 老虎蟹都制 老西都屌左先 吹乒乓呀？ 0 0 1
三連星 • 3h 買板唔知訂 [sosad][sosad][sosad][sosad]哩個正#good# 0 0
英國屬土公民 • 3h 事頭婆
告人果時話：「要告到去樞密院！」
嫌人咁遲先講嘅時侯會話：「你唔好97至講！？」 樞密院按察司 真係譯得幾好 本身古代中國官署 咁樣借嚟用 相反而家咩「特首」，咩「司長」，咩「衛食局局長」，「減低食物中鹽和糖委員會」‥‥‥真係不知所謂。xx(xx(xx( 0 0 1
企這山睇那山 • 3h 嘔電
有冇人聽過:P 1 0 3
剛果大酋長 • 3h 茂里 茄喱啡 1 0
三連星 • 3h 嘔電
有冇人聽過:P 有#yup# 0 0
刺激1999995 • 3h 「譬如」 宜家啲人全部講「比方說」
我未聽過有人講「比方說」囉，全世界仲講緊譬如。 Me too 0 0
人生有幾多舊榴槤 家政堂
明日花昨日已J 手提
刺激1999995 • 3h 嘔電
有冇人聽過:P 成日講[sosad][sosad] 2 0
刺激1999995 • 3h 家政堂 點會[sosad][sosad] 中學仲有 1 0 1
人生有幾多舊榴槤 • 3h 家政堂 點會[sosad][sosad] 中學仲有 我地叫藝教 0 0
福音戒毒 • 3h 事頭婆
告人果時話：「要告到去樞密院！」
嫌人咁遲先講嘅時侯會話：「你唔好97至講！？」 樞密院按察司 真係譯得幾好 本身古代中國官署 咁樣借嚟用 相反而家咩「特首」，咩「司長」，咩「衛食局局長」，「減低食物中鹽和糖委員會」‥‥‥真係不知所謂。xx(xx(xx( 97後有啲墨水嘅人都死得7788啦 0 0 1
英國屬土公民 • 3h 顯示更多 樞密院按察司 真係譯得幾好 本身古代中國官署 咁樣借嚟用 相反而家咩「特首」，咩「司長」，咩「衛食局局長」，「減低食物中鹽和糖委員會」‥‥‥真係不知所謂。xx(xx(xx( 97後有啲墨水嘅人都死得7788啦 都唔係咁柒下話D名‥‥‥ 0 0
軟酥酥的胸脯 大隻講
Blocked • 3h 「譬如」 宜家啲人全部講「比方說」
我未聽過有人講「比方說」囉，全世界仲講緊譬如。 個世界好大 睇多啲文，見識多啲人 語言蝗化嘅程度比你所認知嘅嚴重 0 1
salormoon • 3h 顯示更多 聖誕老人 終身監禁 騎着鹿車去殺人 耶穌搵我笨 耶穌搵老襯 耶穌搵我三千蚊 孫中山 孫中山 跌左落屎坑 成個世界輸曬 老婆仔都走埋 0 0 1
剛果大酋長 • 3h 顯示更多 耶穌搵我笨 耶穌搵老襯 耶穌搵我三千蚊 孫中山 孫中山 跌左落屎坑 成個世界輸曬 老婆仔都走埋 起來 我大個環遊世界 我騎着隻哥斯拉 你阿婆係心理變態 2 0
Ck0692 • 3h kai子 呢個係咪台灣傳入 0 1 1
Tamama二等兵 • 3h 乎fit :~(:~(:~( 00後：好耐冇聽過呢隻字 耐到唔記得咗點解 應該係解啲神神化化，古靈精怪嘅野:) 利申都係00後，間唔中會用下 0 4 2
鐵甲人 • 2h 遊船河 (船p) 咕哩 屈尾十 (已經冇乜人講) 2 0 1
睾丸球 o咀
專業被捕師 拖友 第 16 頁
烈日當空 • 2h 較腳 吔飯 映畫戲 辦館 埋舟 起錨 荷蘭水 大丸 十三座 飛機欖 2 0 2
NADAAAL • 2h 「譬如」 宜家啲人全部講「比方說」
我未聽過有人講「比方說」囉，全世界仲講緊譬如。 比方說#haha#dog#haha#dog#haha#dog#haha#dog 0 0
席必腸 • 2h kai子 到而家仲講緊O:-) 利申00後 0 0
話題終結者 • 2h 警察 正義 法治 除左楊明仲有呢班藝人唔好漏左佢地！ https://lih.kg/1935695 - 分享自 LIHKG 討論區
0 0
鈴木醬 • 2h 北姑[sosad] 依家係大媽 0 0
夜航鳥 • 2h 警察 正義 法治 幾時講過冇法治#haha#dog 分化JJ 1 0
小意思 喫K
和泉秀子 塞豆窿
鈴木醬 • 2h 潛水怕屈機 呢個term係考評局柒xx( 考評局中文卷最鍾意自創潮語 然後畀人笑 2 0
衫厚淥麵 • 2h 二奶:-( 0 0
太太平公主 跳晒制
衫厚淥麵 撚化
歐林洛恩 反彈
感動完會忘記 • 2h 堅係 xx( 0 0
我想食壽司 • 2h 乎fit We wet[sosad] 1 0
感動完會忘記 • 2h 「木」嘴 變咗 撚樣 #haha#lm2 1 0 2
連豬唔當差 • 2h 你唔好三分顏色上大紅喎！ 1 0
三木印 • 2h 霹啪你個隆的洞 1 0 1
感動完會忘記 • 2h guga兵 1 0 1
比翼雙飛 • 2h 中英數社科健 0 0 1
格劍 • 2h 嘩~~~超低能勁搞笑囉。 (重要用港女tone 講) 0 0
廢叉 xD
追風箏的傻子 荗里
最憎MK妹 • 2h 想搭單問樣嘢 你地身邊多唔多人講嘢 一堆口語後面加個「吧？」#stare#cat 我係近年先聽得多香港人用 啲廣州客就100%係咁講嘢 例如 「唔會吧？」 「應該係牛吧？」
我覺得好銀耳#sneeze#cat 1 0
DearWinter • 2h 好籮 唔知幾時俾柒字取代左[sosad] 有陣𤓓味傳入我個鼻 無法去躲避 問你死得未 1 0 第 17 頁
點JackWills 趁地淋
318禁炮禁屋頂 • 2h 唔知日夜 0 0
減肥永遠唔成功 屈機
減肥永遠唔成功 禾艾尔
小意思 • 2h 喫K =叫人食屎 0 0
儒以文亂法 • 2h 裙腳仔 遊艇仔 二奶:o) 油瓶仔 呢個先係正名#good# 1 0
儒以文亂法 • 2h 抖糧 凍滾水 抖涼？逗糧？ 1 0
黃金柴 • 2h kai子 中一二都會講 大個就粗糙啲 傻閪[sosad] 以前打機會講白木[sosad][sosad] 白目啊？台灣人專用[sosad] 0 0
儒以文亂法 • 2h 撥個輪 摩登/時髦 終於遇到一個我唔識嘅 撥個輪係打電話？ 2 0 2
櫻花妹子 • 2h 食屎狗 跟尾狗 掛機 0 0
YellowBull 妖
畢馬威猛先生 • 2h 依撈柒 細個聽d 老人家講 咩黎 http://bbs.cantonese.asia/thread-9095-1-1.html 鄉下話嚟？[sosad] 0 0 1
女母日月 屈機
天網恢恢疏而不漏 • 2h 洗讚小鴨鴨 其實係咩黎?[sosad] 風靡一時嘅mk Facebook group 1 0 1
我的名字不重要 • 2h 屈機？ 身邊好似已經冇乜人講 1 0 1
工程爸爸 • 1h 收片 度水 疊水 1 0
披著狼皮的羊 • 1h kai子 諗起frd子都係:~( 1 0
戴口罩啊各位 引用 #409 係啊
Chef • 1h 蛇qwei 0 0
里安尼遜 • 1h 新絲蘿蔔皮 新鮮:o) 0 1
里安尼遜 • 1h 掟煲#bye#pig 掟煲唔掟蓋 得閒做吓愛 0 0
里安尼遜 引用 #326 係
里安尼遜 • 1h 乎fit :~(:~(:~( 00後：好耐冇聽過呢隻字 耐到唔記得咗點解 應該係解啲神神化化，古靈精怪嘅野:) 利申都係00後，間唔中會用下 咪撚9up啦[sosad] 睇你有咩乎fit即係類似睇你有咩計 咁解 1 0
瓦普ARP 嗒嗒地
里安尼遜 • 1h 「木」嘴 變咗 撚樣 #haha#lm2 木咀無咁粗 0 0 第 18 頁
頹廢抖擻精神 引用 #8 [bouncy]
里安尼遜 • 1h 屈機？ 身邊好似已經冇乜人講 變咗屌打 支那味濃 不過我唔知來源 0 0 1
頹廢抖擻精神 引用 #414 [bomb]
尋開心 • 1h kai子 講開Kai兜同豬兜 不過豬兜就仲有講 0 0
尋開心 • 1h 事頭婆
告人果時話：「要告到去樞密院！」
嫌人咁遲先講嘅時侯會話：「你唔好97至講！？」 宜家講開2046
：真係等到2046 0 0
尋開心 籮底橙
越野路芙 • 1h 潛水怕屈機 1 0
MeltyKiss • 1h 死黨#yup#
宜家叫咩閨蜜:o)xx(xx(xx( 以前叫好朋友做fd子 xD bff 4 ever^3^ 0 0
小岡 • 1h 顯示更多 呢個真。個個都小三前小三後。 應該係「油瓶仔」瓶字音讀「pun」（差唔多咁） 但一定唔係遊艇仔（唔好以為係因有錢，富2代 —》二世祖，係因以前「拖油瓶」轉化過嚟，即買一送一） 全世界都叫油艇仔喎…… 你查下 我60後係知咁樣 可能後生會叫左做遊艇仔（若意思一樣？） 0 0 2
小岡 • 1h 乎fit :~(:~(:~( 00後：好耐冇聽過呢隻字 耐到唔記得咗點解 應該係解啲神神化化，古靈精怪嘅野:) 利申都係00後，間唔中會用下 有咩乎fit = 有咩辦法 1 0 1
小岡 • 1h 「木」嘴 變咗 撚樣 #haha#lm2 兩個一直都有 「木」咀咁係cctvb 當年搞出嚟 0 0
小岡 • 1h 霹啪你個隆的洞 又係cctvb 當年，我反而唔覺地道 2 0
小岡 • 1h 中英數社科健 我當年係 中英數社自健 0 0
小岡 • 1h 撥個輪 摩登/時髦 終於遇到一個我唔識嘅 撥個輪係打電話？ 以前電話係轉盆（黑色一大舊，拎住打多陣好似舉鐵咁，手軟） 所以當年係叫「撥個輸」 1 0 1
小岡 • 1h 顯示更多 咩黎 http://bbs.cantonese.asia/thread-9095-1-1.html 鄉下話嚟？[sosad] 似係「一轆柒」 0 0
愚地克警 • 1h 去“wet” 正斗 老虎蟹 0 0
儒以文亂法 • 59m 撥個輪 摩登/時髦 終於遇到一個我唔識嘅 撥個輪係打電話？ 以前電話係轉盆（黑色一大舊，拎住打多陣好似舉鐵咁，手軟） 所以當年係叫「撥個輸」 嗯我就憑著呢個思路去估先估到 不過識得撥個輪呢啲term恐怕年紀都有返咁上下[sosad] 0 0
侵侵！侵襲我心 • 46m 濕滯 屙拔甩 講耶穌 頭兩個成日用#hoho#
忽得妹、食咗忽得 老泥妹 正斗 成嚿豬油膏咁
都少聽人講#solution#mouse 變咗mk妹 0 0
淫賤小珍妮 • 46m 咪呃我膝頭哥唔食辣椒醬[sosad] 0 0
十而百千而萬 • 45m 民主 自由 獨立 公平 平等 公義 正義 安全 本土 法治 香港人 三權分立 普世價值 0 0
芳菲闌珊 • 45m 我有龍炮 0 0
亻可方方土火韋 • 45m 顯示 #1 我係中國人呀屌 你係咪癡Q咗線[sosad]你去第二到講 唔好係far right集中地lihkg講啦[sosad] P牌仔真係唔識㗎喎 0 0
儒以文亂法 • 44m 顯示更多 呢個真。個個都小三前小三後。 應該係「油瓶仔」瓶字音讀「pun」（差唔多咁） 但一定唔係遊艇仔（唔好以為係因有錢，富2代 —》二世祖，係因以前「拖油瓶」轉化過嚟，即買一送一） 全世界都叫油艇仔喎…… 你要考慮返呢個詞原意係咩先 油瓶仔一詞主要攞嚟稱呼個啲改嫁後帶嚟嘅前夫子女 https://m.xuite.net/blog/lychee93/xmu832/368547055 呢個網有齊點解油瓶仔=累贅同出處
順帶一提油瓶仔個“瓶”字應該讀為peng4-5 我去查查粵語讀音但係好似都係同平時有出入 你可以理解“買嘢好平”個“平”再聲調高啲 就好易聽成你認為嘅“艇” 0 0
漂洋過海來插妳 • 41m kai子 呢個係咪台灣傳入 係，即國語：凱子 0 0
奶油蛋糕多奶 世界仔 第 19 頁
侵侵！侵襲我心 引用 #273 抦
儒以文亂法 • 39m 顯示更多 應該係「油瓶仔」瓶字音讀「pun」（差唔多咁） 但一定唔係遊艇仔（唔好以為係因有錢，富2代 —》二世祖，係因以前「拖油瓶」轉化過嚟，即買一送一） 全世界都叫油艇仔喎…… 你查下 我60後係知咁樣 可能後生會叫左做遊艇仔（若意思一樣？） 遊艇仔恐怕係讀錯之後啲人再穿鑿附會 將其理解為有錢仔或私生子 我搵唔到出處 所以應該油瓶仔先係正解 1 0
冒警抵打 • 38m 知你籠嘢啦 1 0
漂洋過海來插妳 • 37m 思疑 老泥妹 道友 1 0
扶餘人 • 35m 顯示更多 應該係「油瓶仔」瓶字音讀「pun」（差唔多咁） 但一定唔係遊艇仔（唔好以為係因有錢，富2代 —》二世祖，係因以前「拖油瓶」轉化過嚟，即買一送一） 全世界都叫油艇仔喎…… 你查下 我60後係知咁樣 可能後生會叫左做遊艇仔（若意思一樣？） 你冇錯呀 我94年都係講 油瓶（peng)仔 0 0
初陣 • 32m 長洲賓客人數多 惠康聖誕大特賣 1 0
儒以文亂法 • 32m 顯示更多 :~(:~(:~( 00後：好耐冇聽過呢隻字 耐到唔記得咗點解 應該係解啲神神化化，古靈精怪嘅野:) 利申都係00後，間唔中會用下 有咩乎fit = 有咩辦法 正字為符拂 好似係解作道士所用嘅符咒拂塵 道士無咗兩樣搵食架生咪一無所用 所以解為辦法
拂字原音唔係fit 好似係因其動作聲音而借字 0 0
扶餘人 • 31m 雖然唔係我嘅年代 但係我知早期嘅香港有呢兩個音譯詞： 士擔 燕梳 0 0 2
儒以文亂法 • 31m 屈機？ 身邊好似已經冇乜人講 變咗屌打 支那味濃 不過我唔知來源 屌字恐怕係台仔用先 例如好似周董嘅“這個屌哦” 但搵唔到出處 0 0 1
有射自然香 • 29m 牛逼 skr 666 有冇「雞逼」？點解一定係要牛？點逼法？ 逼好似解閪 因為大陸人鍾意牛歡喜 0 0
扶餘人 • 29m 趁地淋 同埋個量詞係「餅」[sosad] 0 0 1
鬼5馬6 • 28m 事頭婆
告人果時話：「要告到去樞密院！」
嫌人咁遲先講嘅時侯會話：「你唔好97至講！？」 諗起 告到你甩褲 0 0 1
共你相識三千天 • 27m 搭客 -> 乘客 大丸 八佰伴 0 0
英國屬土公民 • 27m 事頭婆
告人果時話：「要告到去樞密院！」
嫌人咁遲先講嘅時侯會話：「你唔好97至講！？」 諗起 告到你甩褲 [sosad][sosad] 而家都會講，不過小D啫 0 0
儒以文亂法 • 26m guga兵 啹喀兵 查過呢個term好似原本係印度語音譯 0 0 1
鬼5馬6 • 23m 趁地淋 同埋個量詞係「餅」[sosad] ???? 咩餅??? 1 0 1
儒以文亂法 • 22m 較腳 吔飯 映畫戲 辦館 埋舟 起錨 荷蘭水 大丸 十三座 飛機欖 ching起碼有四五十歲？#adore# 0 0 1
儒以文亂法 • 21m 打把仔 = 仆街仔 死飛仔/ 死飛女 mk _ 到加零一 柒到你 跳制 何b仔 屎忽大過菠蘿 一碌葛 碌柒咁 老虎蟹都制 老西都屌左先 吹乒乓呀？ 打靶仔=咒人死 0 0
有射自然香 • 18m 嘔電
有冇人聽過:P 勁到嘔電 0 0
扶餘人 • 16m 屈機？ 身邊好似已經冇乜人講 變咗屌打 支那味濃 不過我唔知來源 屌字恐怕係台仔用先 例如好似周董嘅“這個屌哦” 但搵唔到出處 查實 屌 呢個字/音 好有意思
屌嘅發音查實係「鳥」字嘅本音 詳見《廣韻》 現代好多方言都將「鳥」讀做n-/l- 呢個發音或者中古晚期已經有 唔少人推測 中古時期 「鳥」用左嚟指賓周 啲人費事令人誤會 就用n-/l-個發音嚟讀「鳥」 而「diu」就變咗專指賓周 1 0 1
鬼5馬6 • 15m 較腳 吔飯 映畫戲 辦館 埋舟 起錨 荷蘭水 大丸 十三座 飛機欖 好多都唔存在 加個 魚蛋妹#touch#dog#touch#dog#touch#dog 0 0
儒以文亂法 • 15m 削 waan1咗 caa5 wo5咗 扠扌咼
waan1咗我思疑係英文wrong嘅中英夾雜使用 0 0
扶餘人 • 13m 趁地淋 同埋個量詞係「餅」[sosad] ???? 咩餅??? 對唔住 我覆錯咗 我想覆「錄音帶」[sosad][sosad][sosad][sosad][sosad][sosad][sosad][sosad]
我想講 錄音帶 嘅量詞係「餅」 0 0
鬼5馬6 • 13m 遊船河 (船p) 咕哩 屈尾十 (已經冇乜人講) 而家咕哩淨係喺 串過碼頭咕哩 出現 0 0
扶餘人 • 12m 趁地淋 唔好意思 我覆錯咗 我想覆#332[banghead][banghead][banghead] 0 0 第 20 頁
小岡 • 12m 雖然唔係我嘅年代 但係我知早期嘅香港有呢兩個音譯詞： 士擔 燕梳 依兩個真係耐 stamp insurances
土擔又所申左「打土擔」即打印花稅 0 0
CHUNGCC • 11m 如果真係失傳咗，連登仔又點會講到出嚟啊？?_? 0 0
BorninCanada 魚蛋妹
儒以文亂法 • 10m 顯示更多 變咗屌打 支那味濃 不過我唔知來源 屌字恐怕係台仔用先 例如好似周董嘅“這個屌哦” 但搵唔到出處 查實 屌 呢個字/音 好有意思
屌嘅發音查實係「鳥」字嘅本音 詳見《廣韻》 現代好多方言都將「鳥」讀做n-/l- 呢個發音或者中古晚期已經有 唔少人推測 中古時期 「鳥」用左嚟指賓周 啲人費事令人誤會 就用n-/l-個發音嚟讀「鳥」 而「diu」就變咗專指賓周 難怪 阿爺同我地嘅諗法都係睇落似雀#haha#dog 不過估唔到係咁樣變過嚟
至於台灣點解咁用我搵到了[sosad]
0 0
珍珠奶綠多多糖 • 7m 洗讚小鴨鴨 而家仲見到[sosad][sosad][sosad] 0 0
無鬼用的懦夫 • 6m 雖然唔係我嘅年代 但係我知早期嘅香港有呢兩個音譯詞： 士擔 燕梳 個個揸車都知咩叫燕梳㗎啦點會失傳[sosad] 0 0 1
小岡 • 6m 較腳 吔飯 映畫戲 辦館 埋舟 起錨 荷蘭水 大丸 十三座 飛機欖 ching起碼有四五十歲？#adore# 映畫戲 士多/辦館 荷蘭水 依d真係耐，唔只50
但點解會係13座？唔係14座咩（小巴）定12座之前？
七層大廈 班地喱 0 0 2
扶餘人 • 5m guga兵 啹喀兵 查過呢個term好似原本係印度語音譯 我嗰區大把gurga仔 0 0 1
增肥絲大隻 • 5m 警察 正義 法治 駁唔到:-( 妖! 講呢d 笨蕉 0 0
扶餘人 • 4m 較腳 吔飯 映畫戲 辦館 埋舟 起錨 荷蘭水 大丸 十三座 飛機欖 ching起碼有四五十歲？#adore# 映畫戲 士多/辦館 荷蘭水 依d真係耐，唔只50
但點解會係13座？唔係14座咩（小巴）定12座之前？
七層大廈 班地喱 映畫戲大概係幾時開始冇人用？ 我94年出世 問心 冇乜點聽過 0 0
有射自然香 • 3m 揸個爬 撥個輪 打車輪 小喇叭 0 0
扶餘人 • 3m 雖然唔係我嘅年代 但係我知早期嘅香港有呢兩個音譯詞： 士擔 燕梳 個個揸車都知咩叫燕梳㗎啦點會失傳[sosad] 唔好意思 我唔識揸車 所以唔知[banghead][banghead][banghead][banghead] 0 0
儒以文亂法 • 2m 較腳 吔飯 映畫戲 辦館 埋舟 起錨 荷蘭水 大丸 十三座 飛機欖 ching起碼有四五十歲？#adore# 映畫戲 士多/辦館 荷蘭水 依d真係耐，唔只50
但點解會係13座？唔係14座咩（小巴）定12座之前？
七層大廈 班地喱 士多我作為90後都聽過嘅 再前啲個啲恐怕真係只有係嗰個年代活過嘅人先知 結合當時特殊文化背景先可以產生呢啲term 呢啲口耳相傳嘅嘢真係無從稽考了 0 0
c=====3 • 2m 大陸喱 大陸仔 Friend過打band 撚化 哥仔 0 0
儒以文亂法 • 1m guga兵 啹喀兵 查過呢個term好似原本係印度語音譯 我嗰區大把gurga仔 真係當初嗰班英兵後代？ 佢地知唔知佢阿爺真係好打得#adore# 0 0
已付費區域 • 44s 冚家祥 同冚家剷一樣意思？🤡 0 0
小岡 • 9s 咪呃我膝頭哥唔食辣椒醬[sosad] 哈哈哈哈 0 0
500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha
Mar. 19, 2020 10:03 AM The 2008 bear market dropped for about 10 months to the bottom. We expect this bear market to be shorter and reaching the bottom in a few months. We expect to see the signals turn up in July because the market is looking out six months to next January when the virus crisis and elections are over. In July the market will know if the virus is controlled and may guess who will win the election and what that means for 2021.
Let's see if we are right. In any case we wait for the signal to turn up, no matter what month that happens. I think April earnings reports will take SPY to its bottom and July earnings reports will look to some improvements and turn our signals up. Also the weekly chart will lead the monthly chart and will show improvement ahead of the monthly chart, if you want a heads-up.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in SPY over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: We are not investment advisers and we never recommend stocks or securities. Nothing on this website, in our reports and emails or in our meetings is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options are especially risky and most options expire worthless. You need to do your own due diligence and consult with a professional financial advisor before acting on any information provided on this website or at our meetings. Our meetings and website are for educational purposes only. Any content sent to you is sent out as any newspaper or newsletter, is for educational purposes and never should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The use of terms buy, sell or hold are not recommendations to buy sell or hold any security. They are used here strictly for educational purposes. Analysts' price targets are educated guesses and can be wrong. Computer systems like ours, using analyst targets therefore can be wrong. Chart buy and sell signals can be wrong and are used by our system which can then be wrong. Therefore you must always do your own due diligence before buying or selling any stock discussed here. We assume no liability for erroneous data or opinions you hear at our meetings and see on this website or its emails and reports. You use this website and our meetings at your own risk.
There are some notable themes from these lists.
Companies that may be viewed as provisioners of inferior goods - those goods whose demand rises as income falls - like WalMart (WMT), McDonald's (MCD), Family Dollar Stores (FDO), DollarTree (DLTR), TJX Companies (TJX), Ross Stores (ROST) and Spam-maker Hormel (HRL) all were well represented during the Financial Crisis. Similarly, do-it-yourself automotive chains like O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), AutoZone (AZO), and Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) were high on the list of performers. While WalMart is currently outperforming (see accompanying piece published today on the outperformance of company's with high credit ratings), the broader retail sector could see unique pressure during this downturn given potential temporary store closings related to expanding quarantines. Financials are notably under-represented in both the 2007-2009 episode and the current environment. Given the stress on the banking sector and financial system more broadly during that previous period, only one financial made the list - current Dividend Aristocrat, People's United Financial (PBCT), a Connecticut-based bank serving the Northeast that successfully expanded during the crisis. In the current downturn, the banking sector is entering the downturn with a much more robust balance sheet and improved liquidity. Banks are still geared towards the broader economic climate. While they will outperform their disastrous 2007-2009 performance, they may still lag the broad market. Health Care (XLV), was the most frequently represented sector on the Financial Crisis-era lists and is well-represented on the current list. One could expect that health care companies that deliver solutions within the current public health crisis could be rewarded with outperformance once again. Two of the best performers - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) - are working on coronavirus vaccines. Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples (XLP) were naturally well-represented on both lists given their defensive business models. These two sectors comprise 44% of the best performers in the current environment. Clorox (CLX) is the top performing consumer staple during the current market sell-off. Energy (XLE) was surprisingly well-represented on the Financial Crisis-era lists as well. Oil surged into mid-2008, hitting $145 barrel that summer before collapsing. Companies at the forefront of the shale revolution were listed frequently on these lists of top performers. That industry may have been too successful, increasing domestic supply as demand was secularly challenged by efforts to curtail fossil fuel emissions. In the current stress, petrostates are competing for market share, imperiling the financial health of some of the smaller private players. Names like Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess Corp (HES), Range Resources (RRC), and star-crossed Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are much closer to the bottom of current performance tables. The drawdown in Energy in the current market episode is certainly a crisis within a crisis. There is naturally some level of consolidation during a downturn as companies with balance sheet capacity look to acquire competitors or adjacent businesses that have gotten cheaper. Getting these M&A calls right during the last downturn would have certainly boosted performance. Unique uncertainty, and the reduction in face-to-face meetings, may limit mergers and acquisitions in the short-run in the current crisis episode, but eventually stronger companies may turn to acquire underperforming smaller peers as this downturn extends.
This is another piece where my curiosity simply led to the creation of an article. I wanted to see these lists of top performers as a reality check on the sectors and themes that outperform in down markets, and am sharing them with the Seeking Alpha community. Every crisis is different, and the outperformers in the current environment reflect some of the unique conditions with this episode. I hope this article proves valuable to Seeking Alpha readers as they look to navigate the current stressed environment.
Disclaimer: My articles may contain statements and projections that are forward-looking in nature, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. While my articles focus on generating long-term risk-adjusted returns, investment decisions necessarily involve the risk of loss of principal. Individual investor circumstances vary significantly, and information gleaned from my articles should be applied to your own unique investment situation, objectives, risk tolerance and investment horizon.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.